Morning Market Review
2019-12-05 09:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.04%. The instrument is recovering somewhat after the ambiguous dynamics yesterday, which, at the same time, led to the updating of local highs from November 5. The euro was supported by strong data from the euro area. Markit Services PMI in the euro area rose in November from 51.5 to 51.9 points with a neutral forecast. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.3 to 50.6 points, which also turned out to be higher than the projected values of 50.3 points. Separately, it is worth highlighting data from Germany. Services PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.7 points in November (with a forecast of 51.3 points), while the Composite PMI rose from 49.2 to 49.4 points, which also turned out to be better than forecasts of 49.2 points.

GBP/USD

GBP showed noticeable growth against USD yesterday, updating record highs of May 7. "Bullish" trend can be traced during today's Asian session; however, its activity is noticeably lower. GBP adds about 0.07%. The growth of the British currency is supported by the expectations of the Conservative Party winning the upcoming early parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12. Additional support for the instrument on Wednesday was provided by optimistic data on business activity in the UK services sector. November Markit PMI rose from 48.6 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast.

AUD/USD

AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, declining by about 0.24%. The instrument responds to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australia's Retail Sales in October showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM in September. Analysts had expected acceleration of the increase to 0.3% MoM. Exports from Australia in October showed a 5% decline after rising by 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant drop in exports led to a marked decrease in the surplus of the trade balance. In October, the balance amounted to 4.5B Australian dollars after 7.2B in September. Analysts had expected a balance surplus of AUD 6.1B.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after corrective growth the day before, thanks to which the US currency managed to retreat from its local lows of November 21. USD strengthened its position, despite the appearance of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US on Wednesday. ISM Services PMI in November fell from 54.7 to 53.9 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 54.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI for the same period increased from 51.9 to 52 points. An additional negative point was the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. In November, the figure rose by 67K new jobs after an increase of 121K in the previous month. Analysts had expected a much more significant increase of 140K.

XAU/USD

Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is slightly corrected after predominantly negative trading yesterday, which formed in response to the news about US-Chinese trade negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the parties are close to agreeing on the volumes of tariffs that are proposed to be canceled as part of the first phase of the trade agreement. The deal itself, according to Bloomberg, may be concluded before December 15.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-09 08:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is stable (–0.03%) against USD on Monday, consolidating after a sharp decline last Friday. EUR showed an active decline on Friday, retreating from its local highs and the level of 1.1115, after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market, which in many respects exceeded expectations. In November, the US economy created 266K new jobs with a forecast of growth of only 180K. Last month, the growth rate was 156K (revised upwards from the previous 128K). Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.1% YoY, which is slightly worse than previous data of 3.2% YoY (revised from +3% YoY). November Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on Imports and Exports from Germany for October.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with a slight increase (+0.02%) against USD during today's Asian session, located not far from its local highs (1.3165), updated last Thursday. Trading activity in the British currency remains restrained, as traders are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of early parliamentary elections, which will be held at the end of this week. These elections are expected to decide the fate of Brexit, as the market is confident in the victory of the Conservative Party. In addition, investors are waiting for news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Next Sunday, according to Donald Trump, import duties on Chinese goods can be raised again if an agreement between the countries is not signed.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading near the opening level (0.6829) against USD during today's Asian session. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Monday's macroeconomic background is rather scarce, but on Tuesday there will be a lot of interesting statistics from Australia and China. On Wednesday, the United States will be in the spotlight with the publication of November statistics on Consumer Inflation and the Fed meeting. In the meantime, investors are taking a lead from the publication of a strong US labor market report for November last Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls in November increased by 266K after the growth by 156K in the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 180K.

USD/JPY

USD is trading flat against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating after falling last week. The optimism from the November report on the labor market, which was released last Friday, today is offset by positive macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Bank Lending in November increased by 2.1% YoY after growth by 2% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a slowdown to +1.9% YoY. Japan's GDP for Q3 2019 grew by 0.4% QoQ after a 0.1% QoQ increase over the previous period. The indicator came out twice as good as its forecasts. On an annual basis, the Japanese economy grew by 1.8% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of 0.7% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, losing about 0.03% and developing a "bearish" momentum formed at the end of last trading week. Reduction of gold quotes is due to a strong report on the US labor market, published last Friday. The American economy showed a sharp increase in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls at the most significant pace in the last 10 months. This allows investors to expect the Fed to continue taking a wait-and-see attitude and abandon the idea of additional stimulation of the economy.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-11 08:42 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near the level of 1.1096, a local high of December 6, updated the day before. Moderate growth of the instrument on Tuesday was facilitated by rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe. ZEW Economic Sentiment index in December showed an increase from –1 to 11.2 points, which turned out to be much better than expectations (–17.7 points). Investors were pleased with the data from ZEW for Germany. German ZEW Current Conditions in December rose from –24.7 to –19.9 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts at –22.3 points. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the same period rose from –2.1 to 10.7 points, while the growth forecast was only to zero. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US on consumer inflation. However, the key event on Wednesday will be the Fed meeting on interest rates, followed by a press conference.

GBP/USD

GBP showed a rather active decline against USD during today's Asian session, falling by 0.35%. Later, the pound managed to return most of the lost positions, and the pair is in the red by only 15 points. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK, published the day before. The UK GDP growth rate in October showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.1% MoM in September. Analysts had expected growth by 0.1% MoM. Industrial Production in October increased by 0.1% MoM, accelerating from the previous decline of 0.3% MoM. At the same time, the indicator was worse than market expectations of 0.2% MoM. On an annualized basis, production is still in the red (–1.3% YoY) and has only slightly improved compared to the data for the previous period (–1.4% YoY).

AUD/USD

AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a moderate decline of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of December 2. The Australian dollar is adding about 0.19%. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China released on Tuesday provided little support to the instrument. Australia's House Price Index in Q3 2019 increased by 2.4% QoQ after a decline of 0.7% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ only. NAB Business Survey in November remained at the same level of 4 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 2 points. Chinese statistics showed growth in annual dynamics of consumer prices. In November, CPI accelerated from 3.8% YoY to 4.5% YoY, being better than its forecast of 4.2% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD strengthens against JPY during today's Asian session, updating local highs of December 6 (108.84). "Bullish" activity on the instrument slightly decreased, and the dollar showed a correction to the level of 108.73, expecting the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on consumer inflation with the opening of an American session at the market. In particular, it is expected that the Consumer Price Index in November will accelerate from 1.8% YoY to 2.0% YoY. In addition, traders are waiting for the Fed decision on the interest rate. It is unlikely that the US regulator will change monetary policy, but official comments are still important.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Support for the instrument is provided by corrective sentiment in the American currency ahead of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. In addition, investors fear the approach of December 15, the day when Donald Trump may introduce higher import duties on Chinese goods. There was information in the media that the US plan to postpone the introduction of new duties, but officials have not yet commented on this.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-13 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR has shown steady growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.5%. The instrument also managed to update local highs of August 13, rising to the level of 1.1198. The reason for such a significant increase in EUR was the moderately optimistic results of the ECB meeting yesterday. As expected, the European regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at the previous zero mark. In addition, the ECB will continue to purchase a monthly bond purchase of EUR 20 billion under the current quantitative easing program. According to updated forecasts, the European economy will show growth of 1.2% this year and will slow down slightly to 1.1% YoY in 2020. Achieving the target inflation rate remains only a distant prospect. By 2022, the ECB expects acceleration of inflation to only 1.6%.

GBP/USD

GBP shows a sharp increase during today's Asian session, updating record highs of May 2018. The growth of the instrument at the moment is more than 2.20% and is mainly due to the publication of preliminary results of voting in the elections to the British Parliament. As expected, the party of Boris Johnson is going to parliament with an overwhelming majority, which will allow Brexit to be implemented before the deadline in the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States, while there will be not much statistics from the UK. The US are expected to publish November data on Retail Sales, and also a statement by Fed representative John Williams is expected.

NZD/USD

NZD is growing moderately during today's Asian session, updating local highs of July 2019. The instrument adds about 0.30%, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Business NZ PMI in November fell from 52.6 to 51.4 points, remaining in the growth zone contrary to forecasts of a decrease to 49.8 points. Additional support for the instrument is provided by Donald Trump's statements on Twitter that the parties are very close to concluding a "major deal". The trade conflict between the US and China is very worrying for investors, since the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods next Sunday, which will only aggravate the situation.

USD/JPY

USD is showing growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. At the moment, USD is adding about 0.28%, receiving support from the growth of optimism regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, investors are reacting to the publication of the preliminary results of the elections to the British Parliament, where Boris Johnson’s party wins, which will allow him to ratify the agreement with the EU in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen is provided by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in Japan in October fell by 7.7% YoY after falling by 7.4% YoY in September. In monthly terms, production decreased by 4.5% MoM after a decrease of 4.2% in the previous month. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Q4 2019 fell from 5 to 0 points, which turned out to be worse than forecasts about a decrease to 2 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are slightly decreasing during today's Asian session, losing about 0.12%. The instrument develops an uncertain "bearish" impulse, which was supported by Donald Trump's statements on Twitter that the US and China are close to concluding a trade deal. The issue of increasing import duties on December 15 remains open. Nevertheless, there is information in the media that indicates Washington’s readiness to abandon the introduction of new tariffs. Moreover, investors are hoping to reduce some of the existing import duties. Finally, the first results of parliamentary elections in the UK contribute to the development of negative dynamics in gold. As expected, the Conservative Party is gaining a landslide victory, which will allow it to gain an overwhelming majority in parliament.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-17 08:51 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, maintaining a "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of last trading week. The euro is adding about 0.04%, expecting new drivers for growth. The instrument had a moderate positive trend on Monday; however, the macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week remains ambiguous. Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in December fell from 46.9 to 45.9 points against the forecast of growth to 47.3 points. At the same time, Services PMI grew from 51.9 to 52.4 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 52 points. Separately, investors were disappointed with data from Germany. German Manufacturing PMI fell from 44.1 to 43.4 points against the forecast of 44.5 points. German Services PMI increased again from 51.7 to 52 points, meeting market expectations. Composite PMI in December consolidated at the previous level of 49.4 points, contrary to expectations of growth to 49.9 points.

GBP/USD

GBP is declining during today's Asian session, correcting after sharp growth over the last two trading sessions. The instrument is testing 1.3300 for a breakdown, although during the first hours of trading, the pound fell to the level of 1.3234. The euphoria from the confident victory of the Conservative Party of Great Britain in the parliamentary elections is gradually passing, and not the most successful macroeconomic statistics comes to the fore. Markit Manufacturing PMI of the UK in December fell from 48.9 to 47.4 points against the forecast of growth to 49.3 points. Services PMI also showed a decrease from 49.3 to 49 points against the forecast of growth to 49.5 points. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of UK labor market data. In addition, closer to the end of the afternoon session, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney should give his speech.

AUD/USD

AUD is going down against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.22%. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the publication of last RBA meeting minutes, at which the monetary policy parameters were preserved unchanged. Australian Home Loans in October grew by 0.6% MoM after the decline of 3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1% MoM. At the same time, Invest Housing Finance in October grew by 2% MoM after an increase of 1.1% MoM in September. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on the housing market and the US industrial production in November.

USD/JPY

USD shows flat dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session. The pair is consolidating after moderate growth the day before, which again brought the dollar to local highs (109.69), updated at the end of last week. Monday's macroeconomic statistics clearly contributed to the development of the uptrend in the instrument. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.9 to 48.8 points in December, which, however, turned out to be better than forecasts of 48.4 points. Tertiary Industry Index in October decreased by 4.6% MoM after growth by 1.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.7% MoM. In turn, American statistics turned out to be better than the forecasts. Services PMI in December rose from 51.6 to 52.2 points against the forecast of 52 points. Composite PMI in December rose from 52 to 52.2 points against the forecast of 51.9 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable at the beginning of the new week and consolidate near the levels of 1475.00–1480.00. Friday's growth gave way to flat dynamics amid the fading of previous growth factors, one of which was the fact that the US and China had agreed upon a trade deal. In addition, China managed to avoid new import duties, which should have a positive effect on global trade. The uncertainty in the market was also lowered by the confident victory of the Conservative Party of Great Britain in the early parliamentary elections, which will allow Boris Johnson to carry out the Brexit procedure without any special obstacles by the end of January next year.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-19 08:54 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after falling the day before. The instrument adds about 0.07%, testing the level of 1.1130 for breakout. Moderate support for the euro is provided by data from Germany released on Wednesday. German Ifo Business Climate Index in December rose from 95.1 to 96.3 points against the forecast of growth to 95.5 points. German Current Assessment for the same period rose from 98 to 98.8 points, which also turned out to be better than expectations of 98.1 points. German Business Expectations in December increased from 92.3 to 93.8 points against expectations of 93 points. At the same time, data on consumer inflation from the euro area limited the development of "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. In November, Consumer Price Index decreased by 0.3% MoM, while in October the indicator showed a weak increase by 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation remains in the area of 1% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP is relatively stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a steady two-day decline. Currently, the pair is trading near 1.3080, losing about 0.02%. Moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK released yesterday did not provide significant support to GBP, although it contributed to some reduction in "bearish" pressure. Consumer Price Index in the UK in November rose by 1.5% YoY, which was 0.1% better than expectations and coincided with October data. In monthly terms, Consumer Inflation increased by 0.2% MoM after falling by the same amount a month ago. Retail Price Index in November also increased by 0.2% MoM, accelerating after a decline of 0.2% MoM in October. Today, investors expect the publication of Bank of England's meeting minutes on the interest rate. It is expected that the monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged, and only 2 out of 9 board members can speak out for a cut in rates.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing uncertain growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The pair is adding about 0.09% preparing to test 0.6600. The instrument is supported by good macroeconomic data from New Zealand. New Zealand's GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.7% QoQ after a growth of 0.1% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.6% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP growth amounted to 2.3% YoY, which also turned out to be better than the data of the previous period at 2.1% YoY, but slightly worse than market expectations of 2.4% YoY. Additional support for the rate was provided by export data. In November, export volumes increased by 5.23B dollars after an increase of 5.01B dollars a month earlier. The trade deficit in November decreased slightly and amounted to –4.82B dollars.

USD/JPY

USD is slightly strengthening against JPY at today's Asian session, again approaching local highs of December 13. The yen is reacting with restraint to the publication of the Bank of Japan decision on the interest rate. As expected, the key rate remained unchanged at –0.1%. At a follow-up press conference, representatives of the Bank noted that the Japanese economy continued moderate growth, but significant risks were still present. Annual inflation rates are located near the level of +0.5% YoY, which is significantly lower than the target levels of the regulator.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session, adding about 0.10%. Demand for gold persists amid continued growth in market uncertainty. The euphoria from the conclusion of the first phase of the trade agreement between the United States and China has long passed, and now investors are trying to understand how the parties will act further to come to a full agreement. In addition, markets are concerned about the process of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which should begin after the completion of the Brexit procedure before the end of January 2020.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-23 08:53 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near the opening level of 1.1079, reacting to weakening volatility in anticipation of Christmas holidays. Investors are still focused on the macroeconomic statistics from the United States, published last Friday. The updated annual GDP data confirmed the growth of the American economy by 2.1% YoY, and the price index of GDP increased by 1.7% YoY. At the same time, analysts expected an increase in GDP Price Index to 1.8% YoY. The greatest support to the US currency was provided by the data on Personal Income. In November, Personal Income increased by 0.5% MoM after growth by 0.1% MoM. Analysts had expected growth by 0.3% MoM. Personal Spending for the same period accelerated from 0.3% MoM to 0.4% MoM, which coincided with market forecasts.

GBP/USD

GBP shows a slight increase of 0.05% against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to test the level of 1.3000 for a breakdown. At the same time, the British currency remains downward in the short term and threatens to show the most significant decline since 2017 against the backdrop of a parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal with the EU. This time, the British Parliament approved the agreement, and Boris Johnson got the opportunity to implement Brexit until the deadline on January 31, 2020. It is also worth noting that the Parliament is trying to limit the duration of the transition period that will operate after Britain leaves the EU and will provide the United Kingdom with easy access to the European market.

AUD/USD

AUD shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops a "bullish" impulse, formed in the middle of last week, and updates local highs of December 13. Australian macroeconomic statistics released on Monday does not provide any significant support to the pair. Private Sector Credit in November showed a slight increase of 0.1% MoM, while investors expected acceleration from 0.1% MoM to 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, credit growth slowed down from 2.5% YoY to 2.3% YoY. During the day, investors expect publication of data from the US on Chicago Fed National Activity and on Durable Goods Orders in November.

USD/JPY

USD is stable against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 109.39. Pressure on the instrument today is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. All Industries Activity Index went down by 4.3% MoM after an increase of 1.5% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.2% MoM. On Monday, investors will be focused on macroeconomic statistics from the United States, while interesting data from Japan will not appear until tomorrow, when a meeting of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee will take place.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a weak "bullish" trend in the short term. The instrument adds about 0.20% and is trading near the local high, updated on December 12. A certain pressure on gold is exerted by a certain decrease in market tension at the end of the year against the background of reaching consensus on trade negotiations between the USA and China and finally setting a point in the protracted Brexit process. It is expected that the deal between the United States and China will be signed in early January, while the UK should leave the

Morning Market Review
2019-12-26
EUR/USD

EUR/USD

EUR is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.1089. Activity in the market remains low due to the Christmas holidays and the approaching end of the year. In addition, no significant macroeconomic statistics are expected to be published by the end of the week, and the previous drivers seem to have exhausted themselves. Investors are still focused on trade talks between the US and China. On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that the parties would sign a trade agreement at an official ceremony, but there was no exact timeline. During the day, investors expect publication of data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending December 20, as well as on MBA Mortgage Applications.

GBP/USD

GBP is growing against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a powerful "bearish" rally, caused by growing fears about the hard Brexit. The pound is trading at 1.2985, adding about 0.25%. After the British Parliament approved the deal with the EU, investors turned their attention to the so-called transition period, which will be valid until December 2020. It is expected that at this time the UK and the EU will be able to agree on all the nuances in order to maintain the simplified access of the UK to the EU market, and will also touch upon the issue of the Irish border. Analysts believe that one year may not be enough for this, but Boris Johnson insists that this period should not be extended.

AUD/USD

AUD is growing against USD during today's Asian session, again approaching the local highs, updated on December 13. The instrument adds about 0.14%. The market is characterized by an extremely low level of volatility, which is associated with the Christmas holidays and the approaching end of the calendar year. AUD is still supported by optimism about improving trade relations between the US and China after the announcement of consensus on the first phase of the agreement. Despite the absence of any details, including the deadline for signing the first phase of the agreement, the market is very optimistic, counting on a noticeable warming in relations between the two countries.

USD/JPY

USD shows quite an active increase against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The growth of the US currency is due to the thin market, characterized by extremely low volatility due to the Christmas holidays. Thursday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Foreign Bonds Buying for the week ending December 20 decreased by 927.6B yen after an increase of 521.9B yen last week. Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks, by contrast, increased by 148.4B yen after a decrease of 53.3B yen over the past period.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, updating local highs of November 5. The instrument is trading near 1503.70. Gold is in demand amid some stabilization of stock markets, as well as due to the lack of specific information regarding the trade agreement between the United States and China. It is expected that the first phase of the deal will be signed at an official ceremony, which may take place in the first half of January.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-30

Current trend

GBP starts regaining positions after a strong decline. The reason for the uptrend was in weakening of USD. In the Brexit run-up, the concerns of UK residents are becoming more apparent. At the beginning of next year, the British economy can expect a record decline in population growth. The reason is the reluctance of citizens of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to remain in the UK, since after leaving the EU most benefits will be cancelled, so obtaining Irish citizenship is very popular.

USD is weakening under the pressure of the continued decline in the USD Index, which at the moment is 96.450 points, which corresponds to the levels of the beginning of summer.

Because the stock exchanges will close tomorrow, the dynamics of the pair may continue within the current trend due to the reluctance of investors to take risks and leave positions open for the holidays.

Support and resistance

The downtrend was interrupted, and the price, breaking the resistance line, consolidated above it. The Alligator indicator gave a buy signal, and the AO oscillator duplicated it, showing the transition through the zero line. The growth prospects are high, but the price should consolidate above the highs of December 18 to enter the deal.

Resistance levels: 1.3160, 1.3500.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2820.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-08

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, developing a “bearish” momentum formed yesterday. Tuesday’s EU macroeconomic statistics slightly supported the instrument; however, the market remains unstable amid the intensification of the crisis in US-Iranian relations after the death of a high-ranking Iranian military commander as a result of a US Air Force military operation. In November, EU Retail Sales accelerated growth from +1.7% YoY to +2.2% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of +1.3% YoY. Also, the index grew by 1.0% MoM after a decline by 0.3% MoM last month. Consumer inflation data were more restrained. In December, CPI accelerated from +1.0% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair develops flat trading dynamics in the short term. There was a lack of UK key macroeconomic statistics on Tuesday, so the news from the United States prevailed. Also, the market continues to closely monitor the development of the conflict in the Middle East, fearing the onset of full-fledged military clashes between the US and Iran. Yesterday, it became known that Iran launched missile strikes on two US facilities in Iraq, attacking the Ain al-Assad airbase and Erbil airfield. USD position was supported by data on business activity. In December, according to ISM, the Service PMI grew from 53.9 to 55.0 points, ahead of forecasts by 54.5 points. Today, investors are focused on the UK Halifax House Price Index release for December and the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change publication for the same period.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing uncertainly, being corrected after yesterday’s record decline. Now, the instrument has added about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6871 for a breakout. The price is moderately supported by the data from Australia. Thus, Building Approvals for November rose by 11.8% MoM after a decrease of 7.9% MoM last month. Analysts expected a more modest increase in the rate of +2.0% MoM. In annual terms, the index slowed down the decline from –22.9% YoY to –3.8% YoY.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, correcting after growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument is trading at 108.33, while at the opening it fell sharply to 107.64 (a local low since October 10, 2019), which was caused by conflicting reports from the Middle East. After the US missile attack in Iraq, where a high-ranking Iranian general died, the relations between the countries deteriorated sharply, and the market even started talking about the possibility of a large-scale war. Yesterday, there was information that Iran launched two missile attacks on US military facilities in Iraq. Published Japanese macroeconomic statistics affected JPY ambiguously. Thus, Average Cash Earnings for November fell by 0.2% YoY after zero dynamics last month. Analysts expected a significant increase of +0.6% YoY. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in December unexpectedly increased from 38.7 to 39.1 points against the forecast of 38.0 points.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are again actively rising, renewing record highs. At the opening of the trading session on Wednesday, the instrument managed to reach the level of 1611.06, above which gold was previously traded in March 2013 but later the rate was noticeably corrected. The reason for such a powerful growth is the US-Iranian conflict in the Middle East, which could develop into a full-fledged war. A meeting of the UN Security Council is due to take place in New York on Thursday, at which, as expected, ways to resolve the situation will be discussed. However, previously, the media reported that the United States refused a visa to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif, which could only increase tension between the countries.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-13

EUR/USD

EUR shows active growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the correctional impulse that formed at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.17%, testing the level of 1.1130 for a breakout. Friday's data on the December US labor market turned out to be worse than market expectations, which contributed to the development of "bearish" sentiments towards USD. Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 145K in December, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 164K. Last month the value increased by 256K. In December, Average Hourly Earnings slowed from 3.1% YoY to 2.9% YoY with neutral forecasts. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.5% as expected.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading slightly lower against USD during today's Asian session, opening with a slight gap down. The instrument is testing the level of 1.3030, located not far from the local lows of January 9. The pressure on GBP is exerted by the approach of the next Brexit deadline, and despite the fact that at the moment the British government has no serious obstacles to its implementation, market sentiment remains alarming. The British economy is not in the best condition, so traders fear that the country's exit from the EU could be very painful. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics from the UK. In particular, data on Industrial Production and GDP dynamics for November are expected to be released.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13%, approaching the level of 0.6920. Support for AUD is provided by rather weak data on the December US labor market, which turned out noticeably worse than their forecasts. In addition, data on Retail Sales in Australia were optimistic. In November, sales grew by 0.9% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Analysts had expected growth by 0.4% MoM. Today, moderate support for the instrument is provided by TD Securities Inflation data from Australia. In December, the indicator increased by 0.3% MoM and 1.4% YoY after rising by 0.0% MoM and 1.5% YoY last month.

USD/JPY

USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near a local high of December 26, 2019 (109.67). The dollar managed to update local highs at the end of last week, despite the fact that closer to the end of the afternoon session the instrument went into the red zone, falling under the pressure of a weak report on the US labor market in December. In general, the demand for safe assets remains low, although it cannot be said that investors completely forgot about the conflict between the US and Iran. A certain tension undoubtedly persists. On Friday, for example, the US administration imposed new sanctions on the Iranian steel industry, which is unlikely to further normalize relations.

XAU/USD

Gold prices again returned to decline during today's Asian session after a brief increase at the end of last week, when the position of USD weakened after the publication of a disappointing labor market report for December. More confident growth of the instrument was hindered by positive trends on stock exchanges, as well as low demand for safe assets. In turn, by the end of January, demand for gold may show moderate growth due to the approach of the Chinese New Year.

Morning Market Review
2020-01-15

EUR/USD

EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, developing a flat trend in the ultra-short term. The pair strengthens by about 0.05%, receiving support after the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics from the US. Consumer Price Index in the US in December grew by 0.2% MoM, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% MoM. Core Consumer Price Index in December slowed from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, however, the price index rose in December from 2.1% YoY to 2.3% YoY. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on industrial production in the euro area in November. In addition, a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China is expected to be signed today.

GBP/USD

GBP shows ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, remaining under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics and uncertain prospects after Brexit in late January. Additional pressure on the instrument is exerted by the likelihood of a decrease in interest rates by the Bank of England in the very near future. At the beginning of the week, investors expected a 50% chance of a rate cut in January, but full-fledged changes in the monetary policy vector will probably occur closer to Q2 2020. Today, traders expect the publication of data on Consumer and Industrial inflation in the UK in December. In addition, the markets will be interested in a statement by the representative of the Bank of England Michael Saunders.

NZD/USD

NZD declines slightly during today's Asian session, developing a weak "bearish" momentum formed at the beginning of the current trading week. Investors hesitate amid the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics and expect new drivers to appear. The data from New Zealand published yesterday were controversial. NZIER Business Confidence index in Q4 2019 decreased by 21% QoQ after falling by 40% QoQ in Q3. The number of Building Permits issued in November decreased sharply by 8.5% MoM after a 1.3% MoM decrease in the previous month. Analysts counted on the appearance of positive dynamics (+2.1% MoM). Food Price Index in December also showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM, continuing to develop the negative dynamics of the previous month (–0.7% MoM). Experts counted on zero growth.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument fell by 0.08% and is trying to consolidate below 110.00. In addition to strengthening technical factors, the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from the US contributes to the USD decline. Today, investors are waiting for the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, which may provide moderate support for USD. Despite the fact that the market took into account the fact of achieving preliminary consensus in a trade dispute between the parties, the formal completion of this process will have a positive impact on demand for risk.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of January 3, updated the day before. The instrument grew by more than 0.3% and is trying to consolidate above the level of 1550.00. Asset growth is mainly driven by technical factors, as well as corrective sentiment in USD amid the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation. In turn, the growth of stock markets, as well as the pending signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, put pressure on the position of gold.