Morning Market Review
2019-10-29 08:37 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Monday, correcting from local lows updated last Friday. In addition to very strong technical factors, the euro was supported by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in October fell from 1.5 to –5.1 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of 1.4 points. Chicago Fed National Activity in September fell from 0.15 to –0.45 points with a forecast of –0.37 points. Today, the euro is trading in both directions again, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors are focused on the data from the US on Redbook Retail Price Index, Pending Home Sales and CB Consumer Confidence.

GBP/USD

GBP rose against USD, having received support from the development of correctional sentiment in the US currency across the entire market. The pound also reacted positively to the formal approval of the Brexit deadline extension until January 31, 2020. Thus, the UK will be able to leave the EU before the end of January next year, as soon as it ratifies the final version of the agreement in parliament. Boris Johnson has not been able to secure the support of the majority yet, so he insists on holding early parliamentary elections in early December. Today, British investors expect publication of data on Consumer Credit for September, Nationwide Housing Price Index, and Mortgage Approvals for September in the UK.

AUD/USD

AUD rose against USD on Monday also maintaining upward momentum during today's Asian session. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by increased prospects for concluding a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China by the end of this year. Participants of the ongoing negotiation process respond very positively to the progress made. The final version of the agreement can be signed at the APEC summit, which will be held on November 16-17 in Chile.

USD/JPY

USD showed growth against JPY on Monday, updating local highs of August 1. An increase in the instrument at the market was promoted by an increase in investor interest in risk amid a decrease in concerns about Brexit. In addition, traders respond positively to preliminary results of the negotiation process between the United States and China and hope that a trade agreement that will avoid escalating the tariff war can be signed in November. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors take a lead from Japanese statistics on Tokyo consumer inflation. October Consumer Price Index remained at the previous level of 0.4% YoY, while forecasts assumed its growth to 0.5% YoY. CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy rose from 0.6% YoY to 0.7% YoY, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.5% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices returned to decline on Monday, retreating from local highs after a moderate upward rally last week. Investors are optimistic about progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, but negative macroeconomic statistics and disappointing forecasts of energy demand have a restraining effect. Some support for oil quotes is provided by OPEC+ actions. The organization intends to expand the current agreement on limiting oil production, but the next meeting of the cartel is planned only for December. Today, investors are focused on the American Petroleum Institute Weekly Crude Oil Stock report as of October 25.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-31 08:54 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR rose significantly against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The development of the uptrend was due to the weak position of the US currency, which retreated before the Fed meeting, while the macroeconomic background from Europe remained ambiguous. Industrial Sentiment Index in euro area in October fell from –8.9 to –9.5 points with a forecast of –8.9 points. Business and Consumer Survey fell from 101.7 to 100.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations. At the same time, Business Climate indicator increased from –0.23 to –0.19 points for the same period against the forecast of –0.24 points. The data on inflation from Germany were not much better. Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which was better than market expectations of 0.0% MoM and 0.8% YoY, but still worse than target levels of the ECB.

GBP/USD

GBP rose against USD on Wednesday and continues to develop upward momentum during today's Asian session. The pound is supported by the fact that the British Parliament approved early elections in the UK in December. These elections will be the third ones in the last four years, which characterizes the instability of the British political system on the Brexit issue. Also, this opportunity will be the last one for parties that oppose Brexit. The pound grew on Wednesday also due to the results of the Fed meeting. As expected, the US regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25%. The Fed officials noted that this reduction does not mean the beginning of a large-scale period of reduction in rates, although President Trump would like it to happen. The regulator acts "according to the situation", which, however, still shows few signs of improvement.

AUD/USD

AUD showed strong growth against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of July 30. The main reason for the growth of the instrument was the weakening of the US currency against the backdrop of another decrease in the interest rate by the Fed. In turn, Wednesday's statistics on consumer inflation from Australia were ambiguous. In Q3 2019, Consumer Price Index slowed from +0.6% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations. In annual terms, inflation remained positive, and the rate rose from +1.6% YoY to +1.7% YoY. Today, the instrument also is trading with a raise. Moderate support for the Australian dollar is provided by Building Approvals indicator. In September, it sharply increased from –1.1% MoM to 7.6% MoM, with a forecast of +0.5% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument was trading higher, despite the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on retail sales in Japan. Closer to the opening of the American session, the "bullish" activity began to decline significantly, as investors expected the outcome of the Fed meeting. The regulator lowered the key interest rate from 2% to 1.75%, which coincided with market expectations. During the Asian session, the dollar is losing ground again. Support for the yen is provided by the data on industrial production in Japan. In September, Industrial Production showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the increase of 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 1.1% YoY, being much better than the forecast of –4.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell markedly on Wednesday, reacting to the emergence of negative news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. Washington noted that the parties continue to work on a joint agreement, which is expected to be signed at the APEC summit in November. However, there are risks that the parties will not have time to agree on all the necessary details before the start of the summit, and the US will continue to increase pressure on China by raising import duties. Another negative factor for the quotes was the published report from the US Department of Energy, according to which over the week as of October 25, oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 5.702 million barrels, while analysts expected them to increase by only 0.494 million barrels. The previous report reflected the reduction of stocks by 1.699 million barrels.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-05 08:39 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Pressure on the euro was exerted by moderate growth in the US currency amid improved prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, support to the dollar is still provided by strong data from the October labor market report published last Friday. Macroeconomic statistics released on Monday provided little support to the euro. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October rose from 45.7 to 45.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 41.9 to 42.1 points, which, however, is still far from the 50-point mark. Sentix Investor Confidence indicator rose from –16.8 to –4.5 points in November against a forecast of –13.8 points.

GBP/USD

GBP showed a slight decline against USD on Monday, falling after an increase of last week. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the strengthening of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of strong statistics on business conditions from ISM and the growth of investor expectations regarding the successful conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The British currency, in turn, remains under pressure from the development of the political crisis in the country preparing for the early elections on December 12. There is still no unity of opinion among the political forces, and therefore there is no reason to count on a favorable outcome for Boris Johnson. UK macroeconomic statistics released today are worse than market expectations. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October showed an increase of 0.1% YoY after declining by 1.7% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% MoM.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Monday, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Today, the instrument is growing moderately, responding to improved prospects for a US trade partnership with China and Europe. The focus of investors is also on the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator left it at the level of 0.75%. Australian statistics published today is contradictory. Commonwealth Bank's Composite PMI in October fell from 50.7 to 50 points. Services PMI fell from 50.8 to 50.1 points. AiG Services index went up from 51.5 to 54.2 points in October.

USD/JPY

USD rose against JPY on Monday, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Japanese markets were closed on Monday to celebrate Culture Day, so investors focused on official statements of last week and the publication of recent macroeconomic statistics. Declining demand for a safe yen was facilitated by statements by US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, who noted that US companies would soon be able to resume cooperation with the Chinese Huawei. In addition, Washington said it was considering freezing the growth of import duties on European and Japanese cars. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect macroeconomic statistics from the United States on business activity and economic optimism in October-November.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Monday, responding to positive statements about the process of working out a trade agreement between the US and China. It is expected that a preliminary version of the deal will be signed in mid-November. In addition, the market is optimistic about the statements of US officials about the possibility of an early resumption of cooperation between US enterprises and the Chinese Huawei. An additional factor in the growth of oil quotes was Iran’s statements about its intention to support the idea of further reducing oil production at the OPEC+ meeting in December. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of November 1. The previous report reflected an insignificant increase in volumes of 0.592M barrels.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-07 08:50 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed an insignificant decline against USD on Wednesday, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The euro returned to decline closer to the opening of the American trading session, while the morning was characterized by growth, which was supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German Factory Orders rose by 1.3% MoM in September, after falling by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of 0.1% MoM. Markit Composite PMI in Germany in October rose from 48.6 to 48.9 points, which also exceeded neutral market forecasts. The EU Services PMI in October increased from 51.6 to 52.2 points with the forecast of 51.8 points. Retail sales in September showed an increase of 3.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous +2.7% YoY and with a forecast of +2.5% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP keeps downward direction, updating local lows of October 29. The development of negative trend is facilitated by the newly arisen uncertainty regarding the process of trade negotiations between the USA and China. The parties still have not agreed on the time and place for signing the preliminary agreement, while China continues to insist on the abolition of both previously introduced import duties and the planned tariff increase in December. The US are in no hurry to make concessions to the PRC on this issue, considering the December increase in duties as a guarantee that China will be forced to make a deal. Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December remain as negative factors for the pound. Today, investors expect the Bank of England meeting on the interest rate. It is expected that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy in the face of significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, investors will be interested in updated forecasts of the BoE, as well as in a quarterly report on inflation.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD, updating close local lows of October 30. The development of negative trend is facilitated by a moderate growth of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market, while investors expect new drivers to appear. Today, the Australian currency is declining, despite the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. AiG Construction Index went up from 42.6 to 43.9 points in October. Exports from Australia increased by 3% in September after falling by 3% in the previous month. Imports also increased by 3% after zero dynamics in August. Due to strong export growth, Australia's Trade Surplus in September rose significantly from AUD 5.926B to 7.180B. Analysts had expected a decline to AUD 5B.

USD/JPY

USD showed a slight decline against JPY on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. Pressure on the yen was exerted by the published minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy, as well as by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. As expected, the protocols reflected the regulator’s commitment to low interest rates, which stimulate weak inflation in the country. It is expected that rates will remain unchanged until Q2 2020 (while the head of regulator Haruhiko Kuroda does not deny the possibility of a new stimulation of inflation in case of urgent need). Wednesday's statistics on Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank reflected a decline in October from 52.8 to 49.7 points against the forecast of 50.3 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed an active decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs. Pressure on the quotes was exerted by the results of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, according to which, over the week ending November 1, oil reserves increased by 7.929M barrels after an increase of 5.702M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected an increase of only 1.515M barrels. US oil production remained unchanged at 12.600M barrels per day. Additional pressure on the quotes was also exerted by the news that some OPEC+ participants are more interested in following all the regulations of the current agreement to limit production, rather than expanding the volume of restrictions in the future.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-12 08:46 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed correctional growth on Monday, recovering slightly after a steady decline of last week. The uptrend appeared due to technical factors, since no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US or Europe were released yesterday. American markets were also closed due to Veterans Day. One way or another, investors are still focusing on trade negotiations between the United States and China. Optimism regarding the early conclusion of a preliminary agreement gave way to doubts after Donald Trump announced that he was not going to revise the current policy on increased import duties. Today, the instrument is relatively stable, expecting new drivers to appear on the market. Investors expect the publication of November statistics on ZEW Economic Sentiment, as well as statements by ECB representatives, Coeure and Mersch.

GBP/USD

GBP rose significantly against USD yesterday, rising to the local highs of November 5. The pound managed to show growth on Monday, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production decreased by 1.4% YoY, slightly improving dynamics from the previous month at –1.8% YoY. UK GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 0.3% QoQ after a decrease of 0.2% QoQ in Q2 2019. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, the British economy slowed down from +1.3% YoY to +1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts of +1.1% YoY. Today, the pound remains prone to further growth. Traders are awaiting the publication of UK labor market data for September/October.

AUD/USD

AUD fell against USD on Monday, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum, which has been preserved since the end of last week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by noticeably worsened prospects for concluding a trade deal between the USA and China. At the end of last week, Donald Trump said that he was not currently considering the possibility of canceling part of the previously imposed import duties, which Beijing insists on. In addition, the parties still did not agree on the time and place of the possible signing of the agreement, which reduces the likelihood that the deal may be concluded in November. Today, the Australian dollar, which opened with the usual decline, is recovering some of the lost ground. The instrument is supported by fairly positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 points in October with the neutral forecast. NAB Business Survey rose from 2 to 3 points in October, which exceeded the expectations as well.

USD/JPY

USD fell against JPY on Monday, as the negative sentiment regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China outweighed the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in September decreased by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 2.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator increased by 5.1% YoY after the decrease by 14.5% YoY in the previous month. Forecasts suggested an increase of 7.9% YoY. Economy Watchers Current Index in October fell sharply from 46.7 to 36.7 points, while analysts had expected growth to 47.1 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, interrupting the development of weak correctional dynamics. Pressure on quotes is still provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Saturday, Donald Trump once again emphasized that the deal would be concluded only if it is "useful" for the United States. As for the possible cancellation of some of the introduced import duties, Trump has not yet considered this possibility, which may become another stumbling block for the current negotiations.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-14 08:51 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of October 15. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the EU failed to provide significant support to EUR. German Consumer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with market expectations. Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period increased by 0.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which also agrees with expert estimates. In turn, Industrial Production in the euro area in September rose from –2.8% YoY to –1.7% YoY with a forecast of growth to –2.3% YoY. In monthly terms, production volumes, on the contrary, slowed down from 0.4% MoM to 0.1% MoM, which turned out to be better than market expectations of –0.3% MoM. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors will focus on the EU GDP for Q3 2019 and a quarterly report on the Employment Rate.

GBP/USD

GBP ended Wednesday trading with multi-directional dynamics against USD. Additional pressure on the pound was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer Price Index in October showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM after an increase of 0.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to appear, but counted on only –0.1% MoM decline. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 1.7% YoY to 1.5% YoY, with the forecast of 1.6% YoY. Retail Price Index in October showed a negative trend of –0.2% MoM, which coincided with the data of the previous month. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 2.4% YoY to 2.1% YoY, with the forecast of 2.2% YoY. Today, the pair maintains its previous dynamics, waiting for the release of new data. British investors are interested in the publication of October statistics on retail sales. Moderately optimistic data is expected to appear, which may provide some support for the British currency.

AUD/USD

AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The reason for the development of flat trading was controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States, as well as recent comments by Donald Trump, who did not shed light on the prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. Moreover, many investors considered the speech of the American president a signal for their possible complication, since Trump again accused China of "manipulation" and noted that the deal would be signed only on condition that it would be "useful" for the US economy. Today, the instrument is steadily declining in response to the publication of disappointing statistics from Australia and China. Australia's Employment Change in October showed a decline of 19K after an increase of 12.5K in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 15K. Australia's Unemployment Rate, as expected, rose from 5.2% to 5.3%.

USD/JPY

USD fell against JPY on Wednesday, updating local lows of November 7. USD continues to decline amid growing demand for safe assets after a speech by Donald Trump left questions about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China unanswered. In addition, in his speech, the American president also accused the leadership of the EU of manipulation, which could complicate consultations on this issue and lead to an additional increase in world trade tension. Today, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of only 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Wednesday, receiving support from optimistic OPEC statements. Cartel Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo noted that there are no signs of a global recession in the world economy, so an increase in demand is quite possible as economic growth resumes. In addition, OPEC expects a slowdown in shale oil production, which should also have a beneficial effect on the balance of supply and demand in the market. Finally, quotes were supported by API Crude Oil Stock Report, according to which oil reserves fell by 0.5M barrels over the week ending November 8, after rising by 4.26M barrels in the previous reporting period.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-18 09:00 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR grew moderately against USD on Friday, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical in nature, since there were almost no fundamental factors at the market. Friday's macroeconomic inflation statistics from the euro area turned out to be ambiguous, but, in general, met the expectations of the market. Consumer Price Index in October slowed down from +0.2% MoM to +0.1% MoM with a neutral outlook. In annual terms, growth in consumer inflation amounted to the previous +0.7% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in October increased by 0.1% MoM and 1.1% YoY, which fully coincided with preliminary estimates by experts. Today, the euro remains growing against the dollar. During the day, investors are awaiting speeches by ECB representatives Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane.

GBP/USD

GBP is growing moderately against USD, updating local highs of November 4. The growth of the British currency at the end of last week was contributed by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US, which prompted investors to further sales of the dollar. In turn, the pound remains under pressure from uncertainty around Brexit and the upcoming early parliamentary elections in December. Analysts fear that the election results will not clarify the process of negotiating a deal with the EU, since none of the parties will be able to take over the vast majority in parliament. Today, the pound continues its active upward trend, despite the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The Rightmove House Price Index in November decreased by 1.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM in October. YoY, the index rose from –0.2% to +0.3%.

AUD/USD

AUD showed strong growth against USD on Friday, which allowed the instrument to partially recoup its losses after a sharp decline the day before. The appearance of correctional dynamics was largely due to technical factors, as well as the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in the USA in October decreased by 0.8% MoM after a decrease of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected reduction by 0.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization Rate in October decreased from 77.5% to 76.7%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 77.1%. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in November fell from 4 to 2.9 points, while analysts expected a growth rate of up to 5 points.

USD/JPY

USD showed corrective growth against JPY on Friday, retreating from local lows of November 4. The growth of the instrument was due to the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics from Japan and weak data from the USA. Japan's Industrial Production in September increased by 1.3% YoY after rising by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. In monthly terms, production grew by 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM in the previous month and with a forecast of +1.4% MoM. Capacity Utilization in September increased by 1% after a decrease of 2.9% in August. Analysts expected a negative trend to remain at the level of –0.6%. Similar statistics on Industrial Production from the United States turned out to be weaker than their forecasts, and the position of the US currency was supported only by data on Retail Sales. In October, Retail Sales grew by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected increase by 0.2% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Friday, reacting to the appearance of optimistic signals regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. On Thursday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow noted that the parties are close to signing the final document. Last weekend, a telephone conversation took place between the head of the Chinese delegation, Liu He, with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The results of the conversation were positive, and the parties agreed to continue negotiations during the current week. Finally, quotes were supported by the published Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report, according to which the number of operating drilling rigs in the US decreased from 684 to 674 units during the reporting week.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-20 08:54 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed ambiguous dynamics of trading on Tuesday, halting the development of an active "bullish" impulse, which remained since last Thursday. The development of flat dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Construction Output in September decreased by 0.7% YoY after an increase of 0.8% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 2.7% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator grew by 0.74% MoM after a decline of 0.82% MoM in August. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Investors are also focused on an uncertain situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations. Despite the continued optimistic sentiment of some politicians, the situation seems to have come to a standstill, and so far it seems that Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15.

GBP/USD

GBP showed a correctional decline on Tuesday, retreating from the local highs of October 22, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by moderately optimistic macroeconomic indicators from the US. At the same time, GBP was supported by hopes for a positive outcome for the Brexit deal in the upcoming British parliamentary elections in December. According to recent opinion polls, the Conservative party has good chances of winning, which theoretically allows it to get the majority of seats in Parliament and ratify the current version of the agreement with the EU. American statistics indicated a moderate growth in the construction market. Building Permits increased from 1.391M to 1.461M in October with a forecast of 1.385M. Housing Starts in October rose from 1.266M to 1.314M, which only slightly fell short of forecasts of 1.320M.

AUD/USD

AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of November 14. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, remaining under pressure after the publication of controversial minutes of the RBA meeting. In addition, the uncertain situation around the trade negotiations between the US and China, which has been noticeably complicated lately, is also putting pressure on AUD. Today, the instrument has returned to decline. Investors are focusing on publications from Australia, as well as the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Westpac Leading Index fell by 0.07% in October, after falling by 0.12% last month. The Chinese regulator, in turn, unexpectedly lowered its interest rate from 4.2% to 4.15%, apparently trying to support an economy that is showing a slowing trend.

USD/JPY

USD maintains a moderate downward trend, paired with JPY, updating local lows of November 14. Demand for a "safe" yen is growing again as the next local crisis develops in US-China trade negotiations. Donald Trump is still not going to abolish previously imposed import duties, and China is in no hurry to clarify the exact volume of imports of American agricultural products in the agreement. Today, the instrument continues to develop a "bearish" trend, ignoring uncertain macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japanese exports went down by 9.2% YoY in October after the decline by 5.2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline of 7.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 14.8% YoY after a decrease of 1.5% YoY in September. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –16% YoY. As a result, the overall Trade Balance in October turned out to be surplus at 17.3B Japanese yen. In the previous month, the trade balance showed a deficit of 124.8B Japanese yen.

Oil

Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Tuesday, responding to negative forecasts by analysts regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by news about an increase in oil production in Norway, as the country managed to start developing the Johan Sverdrup field ahead of schedule. Finally, the American Petroleum Institute report, published on Tuesday, turned out to be a negative factor, showing that in the week ending November 15, US oil reserves rose sharply by 5.954M barrels after a decrease of 0.5M barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-22 08:51 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during the Asian session, having added 0.06% till the present moment. Insignificant support for the instrument is provided by rather weak positions of the American currency, which came under pressure after the publication of ambiguous data from the USA the day before. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15 remained at the level of 227K, with a forecast of a decline to 219K. Continuing Jobless Claims rose from 1.692M to 1.695M, while analysts expected a reduction to 1.685M. During the day, European investors expect the publication of statistics from Germany and the euro area on GDP dynamics and levels of business activity. In addition, the market is waiting for the speech of the new ECB Governor Christine Lagarde, who can make significant changes to the policy of the European regulator.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair is showing weak growth, slightly strengthening by 0.08%. The focus on investors remains on the situation around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may end in failure. The day before, the PRC noticeably increased criticism of the US after the approval of a bill in the US Senate on the possible restriction of China’s trade preferences in the USA in case of violation of human rights and freedoms in Hong Kong. Negative forecasts on trade negotiations suggest that in mid-December, the United States will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods, which will contribute to the escalation of tension. In the afternoon, investors expect publication of statistics from the UK on the Manufacturing and Services PMI for November.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is trying to correct after an active decline for two consecutive sessions; however, the Australian dollar has little fundamental support. Investors are focused on Friday's statistics on business activity indexes. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in November showed a decrease from 50.1 to 49.5 points. The indicator turned out significantly worse than its forecasts, which assumed its growth to 53.5 points. Manufacturing PMI over the same period fell from 50 to 49.9 points, which was 0.1 points better than market expectations. Composite PMI in November corrected down from 50 to 49.5 points, entering the stagnation zone.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during the Asian session. The instrument practically did not depart from its opening level at around 108.62. The yen ignored moderately optimistic macroeconomic data from Japan. Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy rose in October by 0.7% YoY, accelerating from the previous 0.5% YoY. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.5% YoY. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 48.4 to 48.6 points, slightly not reaching the expected values of 48.7 points.

XAU/USD

Gold is stable during the Asian session and is trading at the level of opening at 1463.72. The day before, quotations showed moderate negative dynamics, which was caused by the appearance of optimistic news around the process of trade negotiations between China and the United States. It became known that Beijing invited a team of American negotiators to a new round of discussion of the agreement, despite continuing disagreements. Meanwhile, quotes are supported by the situation surrounding ongoing protests in Hong Kong. The United States have passed a series of bills that support civil protest and seek to exert pressure on China, recalling the need to respect human rights.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-26 08:38 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR again shows ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.1012. The euro remains under pressure against the backdrop of a growing dollar, which finds support among the improved prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. It became known that the PRC will nevertheless raise fines for violating the law on intellectual property rights, which previously served as a very significant obstacle to the dialogue between the two countries. However, this does not mean that the parties are ready to sign the final agreement, although there is not much time left before the date of a possible increase in import duties on the part of the United States. During the day, investors expect speeches by representatives of the ECB, who will comment on the results of the first speech by Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB.

GBP/USD

GBP remains relatively stable during the Asian session, slightly correcting (–0.05%) after moderate growth the day before. Support for the pound, as before, is provided by forecasts regarding the upcoming elections to the British Parliament. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party has good chances to get an overwhelming number of seats in Parliament, which will allow it to ratify the existing agreement with the EU. Currently, more than 40% of voters support Boris Johnson, while slightly less than 30% are ready to vote for the Labor Party. CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided slight support to the instrument yesterday. In November, sales fell by 3% MoM after a decline of 10% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.10% MoM.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6420, adding about 0.21%. At the opening of the session, there was a decline to 0.6404, caused by the growth of correctional sentiment in favor of the US currency. Active support for NZD is provided by statistics from New Zealand. In Q3 2019, Retail Sales grew by 1.6% QoQ after growing by 0.2% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator also turned out better than its forecasts (+1.2% QoQ). Core Retail Sales rose by 1.8% QoQ with a forecast of +1.5% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD showed strong growth against JPY at the opening of today's Asian session, rising to 109.19 and updating the local highs of November 12. The "bullish" activity on the instrument has significantly decreased, but the dollar retains its advantage, adding about 0.04%. The US currency is supported by news regarding US-Chinese trade negotiations. Investors believe that the parties will have time to agree before the deadline for the next increase in import duties. China is expected to increase fines for violation of intellectual property rights. In turn, support for the yen during the Asian session was provided by the data on Corporate Services Price Index in Japan. In October, prices rose sharply by 2.1% YoY after a slight increase of 0.5% YoY a month earlier, which may indicate a gradual acceleration of inflation in the country.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near local lows of November 12 (at 1451.34). In general, the instrument maintains a moderate downtrend that has formed in the middle of last week. Pressure on gold quotes is exerted by growing optimism about the prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China. According to the media, Washington and Beijing are "very close" to the conclusion of a preliminary agreement, but there is still little information. In addition, the situation with the upcoming UK parliamentary elections, which are expected to contribute to the early conclusion of a trade deal with the EU, also contributes to increased demand for risky assets.

Morning Market Review
2019-11-28 08:47 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. The instrument continues trading near 1.1000, which was actively tested for a breakdown the day before. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the USA, published on Wednesday, continue to exert moderate pressure on the euro. Annual data on US GDP in Q3 2019 showed an increase of 2.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous 1.9% YoY. Analysts had expected the same growth dynamics to maintain (+1.9% YoY). Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air in October rose sharply by 1.2% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline of 0.3% MoM. Chicago PMI in November rose from 43.2 to 46.3 points, which turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts about growth to 47 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the euro area on the level of business sentiment. Special attention should be paid to the data from Germany on the November dynamics of Consumer Prices.

GBP/USD

GBP is growing during the Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops an upward momentum formed the day before under the influence of the expectations of the publication of an updated opinion poll from YouGov. Traditionally, forecasts of this kind have a strong influence on the markets, since they enjoy a fairly high trust. According to a published forecast, in the upcoming elections to the British Parliament, 43% of the seats may be taken by candidates from the Conservative Party. The Labor Party can tentatively only get 32% of the seats, which provides Prime Minister Boris Johnson with a confident majority in parliament.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing an active decline during today's Asian session, trading near local lows of October 17 (0.6758). The instrument continues to develop a "bearish" impulse, formed yesterday when the Australian dollar was under pressure from publications from Westpac. According to Westpac Banking Corp. representative, the RBA may lower its interest rate twice until mid-2020, and is also very likely to initiate a quantitative easing program. Slight pressure on the instrument during the Asian session is exerted by data from Australia. Private New Capital Expenditure in Q3 2019 decreased by 0.2% QoQ after a decrease of 0.5% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator turned out to be worse than its forecast, which assumed a decrease of only 0.1% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.09%. The instrument is corrected from local highs at 109.59, updated the day before (highs of May 31). The development of correctional dynamics for the instrument is facilitated by technical factors that are exacerbated by closed markets in the United States due to Thanksgiving. At the same time, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan hinder the development of a more confident decline. Japanese Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 14.4% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected zero dynamics. In annual terms, the decline in sales was –7.1% YoY after an increase of 9.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 4.4% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.09%. The instrument is recovering after a moderate decline yesterday, which was due to the publication of a number of good macroeconomic indicators from the United States. In particular, investors were optimistic about the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q3 2019, which showed an increase from the previous 1.9% YoY to 2.1% YoY. Optimistic forecasts regarding the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the UK also provide additional pressure on gold. According to several opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain is gaining a confident majority of seats in parliament, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the existing agreement with the EU with minimal resistance and hold Brexit before the next deadline.

Morning Market Review
2019-12-02 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR is weakening against USD during the Asian session, losing about 0.02%. The instrument is slightly correcting after growth at the end of last week, which allowed the euro to consolidate at a local high since November 25 at 1.1027. The strengthening of EUR last Friday was facilitated by the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3% YoY in November after rising by 1.1% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 1.2% YoY. Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.7% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which also exceeded expectations of +0.9% YoY. Unemployment Rate in October expectedly decreased from 7.6% to 7.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of data on the EU Manufacturing PMI for November, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

GBP/USD

GBP opened today with a moderate downward gap against USD and is currently trading near 1.2910, losing about 0.16%. The opening shifts were caused by investors returning to the market after the holidays in the USA and the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from China on Saturday, while the general news background did not change much. The pound remains under pressure from uncertainty over the upcoming British parliamentary elections, despite quite clear forecasts. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain can get a confident majority, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and put an end to the fairly protracted history with Brexit. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI in November. After the opening of the American session, similar indices will be released in the United States.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, gaining 0.2%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the publication of strong data from China, while Australian statistics are contradictory. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 51.7 to 51.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 51.4 points. Australian data, by contrast, indicated a decrease in Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI from 50 to 49.9 points. AiG Manufacturing PMI in November fell sharply from 51.6 to 48.1 points. Building Approvals issued in October fell by 8.1% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from –17% YoY in September to –23.6% YoY in October. Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of the RBA decision on the interest rate. It is predicted that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy and will keep the rate at the same level of 0.75%.

USD/JPY

USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.19% and updating local highs of May 30 (109.71). The growth of the dollar is facilitated by a good demand for risk, as well as moderately optimistic signals from the US economy. In addition, investors are responding to the situation around US-Chinese trade negotiations. After Trump signed bills to support protesters in Hong Kong last Wednesday, markets expected a response from Beijing, but there was no reaction, which may indirectly indicate China’s interest in signing the first stage of the agreement in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen on Friday was exerted by data on industrial production. In October, the indicator crashed by 4.2% MoM and 7.4% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –2.1% MoM and +1.9% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, losing 0.3%. The instrument is correcting after active growth at the end of last week, due to the correction of the US currency. Moderate support for gold continues to be provided by the uncertain situation surrounding US and Chinese trade negotiations, especially after the adoption of a number of bills in the US aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. However, to date, China has not taken any retaliatory measures that could significantly worsen the prospects for signing a preliminary trade agreement.