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Posts: 5

Topic: EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Strategy

Using the strategy generator and my Bar Range Price Spread indicator as a locked opening logic condition the generator produced the attached Strategy which is giving a return of 19EUR/Day and a win/loss ratio of 1.0. I have changed the Data Horizon and although the return/day changes the ratio doesn't. Are there any parameters incorrectly set to give this result, comments please.
Thanks
Mick

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19 EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Heiken Ashi Laguerre 100.xml 3.25 kb, 69 downloads since 2012-02-17 

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Re: EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Strategy

Most likely, I think the high win ratio comes from Take Profit at 491 and Permanent Stop Loss at 5000. It would be similar to holding a position until it eventually showed a profit, because it's more likely to travel 500 pips in either direction (triggering the Take Profit) before traveling 5000 pips in either direction (triggering the Stop Loss).

Re: EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Strategy

Thanks krog
As I'm new to this what would you consider to be an acceptable win/loss ratio and return from 1 lot, this one is 19 Eur profit per day. I have set the win/loss ratio to .80 and have several strategies generated giving similar profits with a .9 and above ratio. When it was set at .70 I have had several strategies giving a larger profit per day but with a lower win/loss ratio. I will test this one on a demo account to see how it performs.

Re: EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Strategy

I think win ratio might depend on the TP and SL sizes; it might be better to look for win ratios over the breakeven rate, and that hold up over time and across markets.

Breakeven = 1 / ( (target/stop) + 1)   // with some adjustment for spread and slippage

for the first strategy, BE = 1 / ( (500/5000) + 1) == 90.9%
then increase bit for spread, so around 93%.

But the best thing is to read a few articles to get different perspectives on strategy development, to find one you agree with and can live with. I've found it helpful to start by searching for "avoid curve fitting" and "overoptimization", they always have a few good tips and lead to more articles.
I've also found it helpful to brush up on statistics and probability, statistically significant vs find by random chance. Nowadays there are lots of good video lectures online, much easier than reading a book. I just watch them 2 or 3 times passively over a week and remember a lot, and get the basic ideas and theory.

Re: EURUSD 30min Bar Range Price Spread Strategy

The calculation is a good place to start thanks, I can work out a value which is more acceptable using different target/stop values rather than picking an arbitrary value.
Totally agree regarding research on the topics you mention. Have downloaded videos from different sources re trading techniques, chart analysis, candlestick patterns etc and have bought books on the subject and with the help of this forum I am beginning to understand better how this system works and how best to set it up for my individual circumstances. As you say I think I need to research "avoid curve fitting" and "over-optimization" more to understand better what is happening or what you shouldn't be doing when building a strategy.

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