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The main events by the morning: March 26

Bitcoin has returned to the area above $71 thousand. A day earlier, investment guru Jim Roger said that the cryptocurrency would collapse to zero. He does not see any long-term value in it, believing that the crypt will disappear.

The United States has imposed sanctions against Russian operators of CFA and blockchain services. In the list: Atomize, Lighthouse, Distributed Registry Systems, Web3 Tech, B-Crypto, Netexchange, Masterchain.

The Cabinet of Ministers of Russia ordered the sale of 27.5% in the Sakhalin-2 operator company for 95 billion rubles. Gazprom's daughter Sakhalin Project will buy a share, TASS reports.

France may come into direct conflict with Russia in the event of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The LCI channel claims that there are several scenarios for the entry of French troops into the territory of Ukraine, including the deployment of NATO troops in fortified areas and trenches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the possible construction of a military plant in Kiev or the deployment of troops in Odessa.

Hamas has confirmed its unwillingness to make concessions. According to Reuters, the Palestinian movement informed the mediators that it would insist on a complete ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as well as demanding the complete withdrawal of the Israeli military from the region and a «real exchange» of prisoners of war.

The March package of assistance to Ukraine from the United States in the amount of $300 million was used back in November. According to Politico, a representative of the American administration said that these funds are currently «not available for use,» and the approval of assistance was rather a symbolic gesture.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

On the verge of inflation: how the Dow Jones and S&P reacted for the third session in a row

On Tuesday, amid expectations of important economic releases during the short holiday week, US stock markets fell, marking the third consecutive decline for the Dow Jones and Standard & Poor's 500 indexes. Investors are in a wait-and-see mood as they analyze potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.

Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 2.92% on CEO Elon Musk's announcement that he would test self-driving technology for the company's vehicles, available to both new and existing customers in the United States. Over the current week, the stock price has increased by about 4%, although during the year their quotes have decreased by more than 28%.

Market participants are particularly focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's main tool for assessing inflation. It is expected that the latest data on this indicator will be published on Friday, a day when trading on American exchanges will not be held due to the celebration of Good Friday.

It is predicted that in February the inflation index will increase by 0.4%, reaching 2.5% at the annual level. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% for the month, keeping annual growth at 2.8%, according to expert forecasts.

"Friday is key. All attention will be focused on this day, and any events before then will be perceived as background. Therefore, we should not expect significant changes in the market until the data is published," said Stephen Massocca, deputy president of Wedbush Securities. San Francisco.

"It would be extremely risky for the market if there were any speculation that Fed rates have not yet peaked. Any hint from the Fed that interest rates could be raised further could signal an immediate shift away from risk assets."

The U.S. economic sector is growing, with February orders for durable goods exceeding forecasts and equipment investment pointing to the start of a recovery. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence remained virtually unchanged in March at 104.7.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 31.31 points, down 0.08%, to 39,282.33. The S&P 500 was down 14.61 points (down 0.28%) at 5,203.58, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 68.77 points (down 0.42%) at 16. 315.70.

Last week, all three major US indexes hit new all-time highs after the Federal Reserve confirmed its forecasts for three interest rate cuts this year.

Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in June continue to rise, now reaching 70.4% probability according to CME's FedWatch tool, up markedly from last week's 59.2%.

Shares of the media and technology group linked to Donald Trump rose 16.1% to close at $57.99 after temporarily hitting $79.38 on the first day of trading following its reverse merger with the company. , specializing in the issue of securities.

McCormick (MKC.N) jumped 10.52% to become the top gainer in the S&P 500, as its first-quarter sales and earnings beat market expectations.

Shares of Seagate Technology (STX.O) also posted strong gains, rising 7.38%, after analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded the hard drive maker's stock from overweight to overweight.

At the same time, United Parcel Service (UPS.N) shares lost 8.16% following the release of the company's 2026 guidance.

On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio. A similar trend was seen on the Nasdaq, where decliners outnumbered advancers by a 1.34-to-1 ratio.

Trading volume in US stock markets reached 10.43 billion shares, less than the average volume of 12.23 billion shares over the past 20 sessions. Trading activity is expected to remain moderate throughout the current week, and as the holidays approach, volumes may decline further.

The pan-European stock index STOXX 600 gained 0.24%, while MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan closed 0.25% higher at 535.59.

Market attention is focused on the Japanese yen, which remains at its weakest against the dollar since 1990 despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates last week for the first time in 17 years.

The dollar strengthened 0.1% against the yen to hit 151.56, raising the risk of Japanese intervention to prevent further weakening of its currency. In October 2022, the dollar/yen exchange rate rose to 151.94, followed by a decline due to intervention.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday expressed readiness to consider options to stabilize the yen, reiterating statements made the day before by the country's top monetary policy official.

The US dollar was marginally weaker, down 0.06% at 7.248 against the offshore Chinese yuan, which strengthened thanks to an unexpectedly high trading range setting. The yuan's fall the previous Friday, after a period of market volatility, had sparked concern among investors, with some speculation that China could loosen controls on its currency, allowing it to fall.

Spot gold rose 0.24% to $2,176.69 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.09% to $2,176.80 an ounce. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin lost 1.74% to $69,753.73, while Ethereum fell 1.55% to $3,572.7.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

S&P 500 breaks records: the most successful quarter in the last five years

Amid the latest economic data, the S&P 500 ended the week with positive dynamics, marking its best quarterly result in the last five years. Investors are optimistic about the future, awaiting new information on inflation.

Breakout of leading indices

In addition to the S&P 500, two other key US indices also posted significant gains this quarter. The 10.16% rise for the S&P 500 was driven by growing interest in artificial intelligence stocks and speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Dow Jones on the verge of historic achievement

The Dow Jones index is approaching a significant milestone of 40,000 points, less than 1% away from this goal.

Economic progress and labor market sustainability

The latest data shows the US economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, helped by strong consumer spending. Additionally, the decline in initial unemployment claims underscores the stability in the labor market.

Optimism among experts

"The economy and consumers are doing well as they continue to spend. Unemployment remains low and there are regions where the economy is thriving... There are funds that want to be spent in a variety of ways," shares George Young, portfolio manager at Villere & Company.

Nasdaq reaches new heights

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index also posted its first record peak since November 2021, opening up new opportunities for investors.

Belief in a "soft landing" of the economy

A key factor in this year's success has been investor confidence in the possibility of a "soft landing" for the economy, which involves lowering inflation without leading to a major recession.

Looking to the future: soft landing is a priority

A BofA Global Research survey conducted in March shows more than two-thirds of asset managers view a soft landing as the most likely scenario for the economy over the next 12 months, while just 11% expect a hard landing.

Fed maintains optimism

The March Federal Reserve meeting, which confirmed expectations of three interest rate cuts during the year while improving the economic outlook, added confidence to investors.

Overcoming rising bond yields

The stock has successfully weathered the rise in Treasury yields that previously weighed on stock prices heading into 2023. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.2%, up from 3.86% at the end of last year.

Expanding the Boundaries of Optimism

BlackRock Investment Institute strategists say risk optimism could expand beyond the tech sector thanks to the integration of AI across industries, as well as support from the Federal Reserve and slowing inflation. This is pushing for more investment in US stocks.

Rising share prices reflect confidence

The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 reached 21, a two-year high and reflecting increased investor optimism in the stock market, according to LSEG Datastream.

Wind of change in the stock market

The stock market remains under the influence of large companies that dictated trends in 2023. However, the current year has brought diversity to growth dynamics, especially among the tech giants known as the "Magnificent Seven."

Artificial Intelligence Stars

Nvidia stands out, posting impressive growth of over 80% thanks to its role as a leader in AI chips. Meta Platforms is also showing notable success, increasing its value by 37% and paying dividends for the first time in February.

Tests for titans of technology

At the same time, not all major players are lucky. Apple faces an 11% loss as the company comes under pressure in China and from regulators. Tesla is also experiencing a 29% decline, driven by concerns about demand for electric vehicles.

Redistribution of influence

According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the Magnificent Seven are responsible for 40% of the S&P 500's year-to-date gain, down significantly from last year, when they contributed more than 60%. This suggests the rally is expanding to other stocks, offsetting the current decline.

A look at inflation ahead of the holiday

Against the backdrop of the upcoming Good Friday celebration and the closure of US stock markets, analysts are eagerly awaiting the publication of the PCE index. The index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, will provide insight into the possible timing and extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.

Minor changes compared to expectations

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground, gaining 0.12%, while the S&P 500 also rose a modest 0.11%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite fell slightly by 0.12%, reflecting the market's mixed reaction to the current economic outlook.

Weekly and monthly achievements

Over the past week, the Dow Jones rose 0.84%, the S&P 500 rose 0.39%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. March gains were notable, with the Dow Jones up 2.08%, the S&P 500 up 3.1% and the Nasdaq up 1.79%. This quarter was marked by significant gains for all three indexes: the Dow by 5.62%, the S&P 500 by 10.16%, and the Nasdaq by 9.11%.

Comment from the Fed confirms caution

Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller noted that despite the disappointing inflation data, the Fed should show restraint in cutting short-term interest rates. However, he did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut later this year, emphasizing the readiness for further regulatory action in response to the economic situation.

Fed Interest Rate Forecasts

Market analysts assign a 64% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by June, based on an analysis of data from CME's FedWatch Tool.

Sectoral achievements and failures

Among key sectors, communications, energy and technology stood out as the best performers in the quarter, while the real estate sector faced losses. This distribution of indicators reflects the changing priorities and interests of investors in the market.

Expanding investment horizons

According to Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, the observed trends suggest that investors are starting to explore opportunities outside the dominance of big tech companies, anticipating lower interest rates later in the year.

Focus on the winners of the AI era

Investors are also cautiously optimistic about which companies stand to benefit most from the increased use of artificial intelligence, tailoring their investment strategies to upcoming technology trends.

AI boom attracts attention

Nvidia continues to lead the AI push, but excitement around the technology has also spread to other chipmakers such as Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings. Astera Labs, another player in this arena, impressed the market by doubling its stock price from its initial public offering price in just a week.

Healthcare in Focus

Walgreens Boots shares rose sharply following its quarterly earnings report, where the company noted a 3.19% decline in the value of its investment in medical clinic operator VillageMD.

Strategic moves in retail

Home Depot shares fell slightly after announcing the largest acquisition in the company's history, the purchase of building materials supplier SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion. The move highlights the retailer's strategic efforts to expand its presence in the market.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The main events by the morning: April 1

Sales of Russian gas for rubles brought the country an income of 2.3 trillion rubles. According to Eurostat and the UN Comtrade platform, Hungary, Italy, Greece and Slovakia became the main buyers of gas from Russia under the new conditions. However, some importing countries (e.g. Germany and Austria) hid information about their purchases of Russian gas.

China has expressed its readiness to hold a dialogue with Taiwan only if the latter recognizes the principle of «one China». This was stated by Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui. He also noted that China highly appreciates Russia's support in the Taiwan issue. The problems between China and Taiwan began in 2016 after Taipei's refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus.

China has maintained its leadership in chip imports for 22 years. In 2023, the country acquired chips worth $350 billion. Hong Kong has remained the leader in chip exports for the past 10 years. The largest increase in purchases over the past year has been observed in Albania – almost 4.4 thousand times.

Monetization will appear in Telegram. However, the new advertisements are not yet available in Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel. Administrators will be able to receive 50% of the revenue from advertising in their channels. Payments will only be made in TON.

The Central Bank of Russia stated that there is no better option for storing reserves than the Chinese yuan. The bank also noted the increasing role and liquidity of the Chinese currency at the international level in recent years. Last year, the yuan replaced the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia.

Microsoft and OpenAI plan to create a Stargate data center with an artificial intelligence supercomputer for $100 billion. Information about this appeared in the publication The Information with reference to three sources close to the project.
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Financial future on the horizon: US stocks rise ahead of consumer price news

On Tuesday, ahead of the release of key inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showed moderate growth, despite a decline in the financial sector. This happened ahead of the reporting season for leading US banks, which begins on Friday.

The Nasdaq Composite, supported by strength in semiconductors, posted a notable gain, while the S&P 500 gained minimally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost unchanged.

Investors were focused on Wednesday's consumer price index, which could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment decisions in light of recent positive economic data, including an impressive labor market report.

Among the large banks whose reports interested the market were JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co and Citigroup Inc, which are included in the S&P banking index and showed a decline in their activity in recent trading.

"Financial companies' first-quarter earnings typically set the pace for the entire season," said Bill Northey, who serves as senior director of investments at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Billings, Montana. "We see cyclical sectors as a measure of the overall health of the corporate landscape in the United States."

Analysts predict that inflation will gradually decline toward the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. However, the National Federation of Independent Business on Tuesday reported optimism among small businesses fell to an 11-year low in March, with inflation as the top concern.

"The decline in small business sentiment is a key signal," Green emphasized. "This is a repeat of the trend of recent years, where large companies feel confident, while small businesses experience significant difficulties."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.13 points, or 0.02%, to close at 38883.67. The S&P 500 rose 7.52 points, or 0.14%, to finish at 5209.91, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 52.68 points, or 0.32%, to close at 16306.64.

Of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500, nine posted gains, with real estate posting the biggest gains. The financial services sector showed the least dynamics.

According to the latest forecasts from LSEG, overall first-quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to reach 5% year over year, down from initial expectations of 7.2% at the start of the quarter.

Stocks related to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology fell, reflecting the decline in the value of Bitcoin. In particular, shares of Coinbase Global and software developer MicroStrategy lost 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

Moderna stock stood out, however, rising 6.2% after announcing positive results from an early-stage trial of a customized cancer vaccine developed with Merck.

Alphabet Inc shares also rose 1.1%, moving the company closer to the significant milestone of a $2 trillion market capitalization.

On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.44-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.33-to-1 ratio.

Oil prices fell for the second day in a row as negotiations to reach a truce in Gaza continue, encountering obstacles from Egyptian and Qatari mediators. On Monday, Brent oil prices fell for the first time in the last five trading sessions, while the price of American oil fell for the first time in the last seven days.

The US dollar is showing stability amid investors' anticipation of the upcoming US inflation data expected on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains near its multi-year lows, prompting vigilance among traders about possible moves by Japan to stabilize the currency.

Those expectations bode well for the big banks' first quarterly earnings reports on Friday.

"We are on the verge of important inflation data and financial reports. Some investors may choose to adopt a more conservative strategy ahead of these key events," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Schwab.

"Despite the stock market's strong first quarter performance, the question remains whether earnings were strong enough to support this development, and whether guidance from business leaders will be able to confirm the more confident growth expectations that the market has already priced in?"

At the beginning of the trading day, the shares showed growth, but then the dynamics weakened, and by the close of trading, some of them were able to partially recover lost positions.

Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said: "With current high valuations and questions about the Federal Reserve's rate plans, markets are reflecting the situation with perfect accuracy. Any higher-than-expected CPI reading could make it difficult to be optimistic about a Fed rate cut."

The MSCI global equity index rose 1.32 points, or 0.17%, to 779.36, recovering from an earlier decline of about 0.5%.

Europe's STOXX 600 index fell 0.61% as investors awaited a policy statement from the European Central Bank on Thursday, paying particular attention to any comments from President Christine Lagarde about a possible rate cut in June.

US Treasury yields fell in anticipation of the release of US inflation data.

Expectations for a rate cut in the US have weakened amid continued economic activity. Markets place the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in June at about 56%, down from 61.5% last week, according to analysis from CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6.6 basis points to 4.358%, down from 4.424% at the end of the previous day, while the 30-year yield fell 5.7 basis points to 4.4964%. with 4.553%.

The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes, which often reacts to changes in interest rate expectations, eased 5.1 basis points, falling to 4.7384% from 4.789% late Monday.

The foreign exchange market was little changed, with the US dollar index down 0.02% at 104.09, while the euro weakened 0.01% at $1.0857. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar lost 0.03% to settle at 151.74.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stressed the country is open to all options to deal with the yen's excessive fluctuations, reiterating its readiness to act in response to the currency's recent sharp decline.

In energy, despite ongoing instability in the Middle East, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted upward its forecasts for US crude oil production for the current and next years, and also raised its forecasts for global and domestic oil prices .

US oil prices fell 1.39%, or $1.20, to $85.23 per barrel. At the same time, Brent crude oil prices fell 1.06%, or $0.96, to trade at $89.42 per barrel.

Analysts said the spot price of gold hit a new record for eight straight sessions, supported by strong buying by central banks and rising geopolitical instability.

The price of spot gold increased by 0.57%, reaching $2,352.23 per ounce. At the same time, gold futures in the US showed an increase of 0.84%, settling at $2,351.40 per ounce.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

CRASH ON WALL STREET: INFLATION VS. RATE CUT

On Wednesday, American stock markets experienced a decline, reaching minimum closing levels against the backdrop of published inflation data, which exceeded experts' expectations. The figures dampened investor optimism that the US Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by the summer.

The publication of the US Department of Labor's report on the consumer price index (CPI), which showed results worse than expected, caused an immediate negative reaction in the markets. Major US stock indexes fell sharply into the red as trading began, highlighting the difficulty of getting inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.

Ryan Detrick, lead market analyst at Carson Group, noted that the surprise inflation data led to a "sell first, ask questions later" strategy. This in turn cast doubt not only on the timing of the first rate cut, but also on the size of the upcoming cut.

Concerns outlined in the minutes of the Fed's March meeting indicate a possible stagnation of inflation towards the target level, which may require the extension of tight monetary policy beyond the expected period.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped while stock indexes felt pressured to decline after reporting higher-than-expected growth in consumer prices in March. This event reduced confidence in how quickly and to what extent the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index strengthened in response to the release of data, and the dollar against the Japanese yen reached its highest level since 1990. Investors are closely monitoring the possible reaction of the Japanese authorities, who may take steps to stabilize the yen.

A report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded a 0.4% rise in the consumer price index last month, mirroring February's trend, due in large part to increases in gasoline and housing costs. This resulted in an annual growth index of 3.5%, compared with economists' forecasts for 0.3% monthly growth and 3.4% annual growth.

These indicators significantly changed the mood of traders, significantly reducing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June from 62% to 17%. In addition, the likelihood of a July rate cut was also revised down from 76% to 41%, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Michael Hans, chief investment officer at Citizens Private Wealth, emphasizes that the current environment remains uncertain and challenging for the Federal Reserve, which has yet to declare victory over inflation.

"The Fed would prefer to rely on additional data to support its confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target," he says. He said the current situation requires a continuation of a cautious strategy, especially as recent data has prompted a revision of expectations regarding the timing of a potential interest rate cut.

Elevated yields on major US government bonds, which topped the 4.5% threshold and reached their highest since last November, put further pressure on stock prices. Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates were particularly affected, with the real estate market recording its largest daily decline since June 2022.

Housing stocks posted their biggest daily decline since Jan. 23, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index posted its biggest daily decline since Feb. 13.

Ryan Detrick noted that "the sectors most exposed to interest rates, including real estate, homebuilding and small-cap companies, experienced significant losses today."

The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in June fell to 16.5% from 56% just before the report, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 422.16 points, down 1.09%, to 38,461.51. The S&P 500 fell 49.27 points (down 0.95%) to 5,160.64 and the Nasdaq composite fell 136.28 points (down 0.84%) to 16,170.36.

Among the eleven key sectors of the S&P 500 index, all but energy ended the trading day in the red, with real estate posting the biggest decline.

Investors' eyes are now on Thursday's upcoming producer price report, which will provide a clearer picture of inflation in March, as well as the unofficial start of quarterly earnings season.

A new round of reporting begins on Friday when financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc, and Wells Fargo & Co report their financial results.

Analysts expect overall first-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise 5.0% year-over-year, a notable decline from the 7.2% growth forecast at the start of January, according to LSEG.

Megacorporations in the growth sector were mostly down, but Nvidia Inc was the exception, rising 2.0%.

US shares of Alibaba also saw a 2.2% gain after Jack Ma, the company's co-founder, addressed a memo to employees in which he supported plans to restructure the Internet giant. It's a rare message from a businessman who has stayed out of the public eye in recent years.

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners far outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 5.93 to 1. A similar trend was seen on the Nasdaq, where for every gainer, 3.58 falling stocks.

MSCI's global equity index fell 6.91 points, or 0.89%, to 772.32.

While Europe's STOXX 600 index ended modestly up 0.15%, investors' eyes are on the upcoming European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. Forecasts say the bank is likely to keep its current interest rate unchanged, despite earlier hints of a possible rate cut in June.

In the government bond sector, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 10 basis points to reach its highest since mid-November following the inflation data. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 18 basis points to 4.546% and the 30-year Treasury yield jumped 12.8 basis points to 4.6273%.

The 2-year yield, closely linked to interest rate expectations, rose 22.2 basis points to 4.9688%, hitting its highest since mid-November.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened its position, rising 1.04% to 105.17, while the euro fell 1.04% to $1.0742. Against the Japanese yen, the US dollar rose 0.77% to 152.94.

Oil prices also saw gains, with U.S. crude rising 1.15%, or 98 cents, to $86.21 a barrel, while Brent rose 1.19%, or $1.06, to $90. .48 dollars per barrel.

Gold lost value as the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rose following an update on inflation data. The spot gold price fell 0.91% to $2,331.12 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.58% to $2,329.90 an ounce.

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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 16-18, 2024: sell below $2,390 (21 SMA - 61.8% Fibonacci)

Yesterday during the American session, gold reached a low of 2,325, the level that coincided with the 200 EMA and from that area, it gained a strong bullish momentum, jumping by more than $50 in less than 24 hours.

From the all-time high at 2,431 to the April 15 low (2,324), gold has retraced the 61.8% Fibonacci which coincides around 2,390.

If gold trades below 2,392 in the next few hours, we could look for opportunities to sell with the target at 2,364 (21 SMA). With a consolidation below the 21 SMA, we could expect a further bearish move and gold could fall to the 200 EMA at 2,331.

In case gold continues to rise, the bearish outlook will be invalidated and we could look for opportunities to buy above the psychological level of 2,400. If this scenario occurs and gold consolidates above 2,396, the price is likely to reach 2,410 and could finally reach 2,435 (7/8 Murray).

Technically, the eagle indicator is giving a negative signal and there will likely be a technical correction in the next few hours, so we will look to sell below 2,392 with the target at 2,330.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024

In the absence of economic reports or other news that could affect the market, investors finally paid attention to the dollar's overbought condition. So, there was nothing to prevent the local correction, which, by the way, is still far from over. The market imbalances, although reduced, have not disappeared altogether. And except for the data on unemployment claims in the United States, today's economic calendar is empty. And with the US dollar still overbought, these reports are not particularly important. Moreover, claims are expected to increase by 4,000, and that's incredibly small. So we can basically say that nothing will change. Such minor changes are not capable of influencing investor sentiment. In other words, the pair will likely correct higher on Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair has started a long-awaited corrective movement. The support level at 1.0600 played a role, which the quote recently approached.

The RSI has left the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart, and it has upwardly crossed the 50 moving average. This indicates an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.

On the same time frame, two out of three of the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, corresponding to a sign of a slowdown in the downtrend cycle.

Outlook
Considering the extent of the euro's weakness, we can assume that there is still room for more movement. For this reason, the pair is expected to rise to the level of 1.0700.

Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short- and long-term timeframes.

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Gold edges lower as Middle East tensions ease

The yellow metal continues to decline, plunging investors into gloom and prompting them to reassess their trading strategies. However, some analysts are confident that the precious metal will rebound in the near future, viewing its decline as a natural step before another rally. The optimism of experts bolsters investors, although some market players remain skeptical about the near-term prospects of gold.

On Monday, April 22, the precious metal sharply fell amid reduced geopolitical risks and decreased demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold lost more than 2.7%. According to estimates, gold's decline at the end of the day was the most significant since June 2022.

The metal depreciated amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Such a development reduced the risk premium in the market. At the moment, gold continues to trade downwards after the sharpest decline in two years.

The catalyst for the current downtrend in the precious metal was the de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Against this backdrop, many experts are pessimistic about the near-term prospects of gold. They believe that investors will turn to other sources of capital preservation. According to some specialists, prices for the precious metal may break below the $2,300 per ounce level and then plummet to $2,200 per ounce. Analysts recommend preparing for a significant decline in the yellow metal amid extremely overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI on the daily chart.

Currency strategists at ABN AMRO Bank have maintained their forecast, according to which gold will lose heavy losses, diving to $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2024. The bank's specialists cite excessively high current prices, dollar strengthening, liquidation of assets in gold ETFs, and the absence of a physical gold shortage in the global market as reasons.

The current drop in the yellow metal (by more than 2.7%) is considered by experts to be the most significant in the last two years. Gold futures quotes on the New York Comex exchange plummeted to $2,346.4 per ounce at the end of Monday's trading, reaching the lowest level since April 5, 2024. On Tuesday, April 23, the precious metal declined by 0.85% and then fell by another 1.3%. Currently, gold is trading at the level of $2,316.45 per ounce.

The precious metal was also weighed down by the high likelihood that the Federal Reserve would maintain a tight monetary policy much longer than expected in early 2024. The focus of market attention is on the publication of the key inflation indicator in the United States - the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the regulator pays special attention to when assessing risks. The release of this report is scheduled for Friday, April 26. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator decreased to 2.6% year-on-year in March. Recall that its February value was 2.8% year-on-year.

Many investors are counting on some easing of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, market participants are switching to riskier assets such as stocks. According to CFTC data, the volume of major market players' long positions in gold futures and options is at a four-year high. The reason for profit-taking was the fairly rapid decline in the value of the precious metal. In addition, in recent months, gold has appreciated despite a steep rally in the greenback. In the current situation, the risks of a deep correction in the precious metal are increasing.

However, according to some analysts, there are favorable factors contributing to further gans in gold. Tailwinds for the yellow metal will be the US Federal Reserve's rate cuts, global instability, and the growing US government debt. Against this backdrop, even economists at Bank of America, who are skeptical about the prospects of the precious metal, expect its price to rise to $3,000 by 2025. Analysts at Citi Bank are also bullish on gold, expecting it to gain in the next 6–18 months. Many investors adhere to this position, asserting that the likely record of $3,000 per ounce will be surpassed in a couple of years.

Improvement in forecasts for gold prices in 2024 boosts investor optimism. It is worth noting that these forecasts anticipate an increase in the value of the metal in the near future. Confidence in such a scenario allows market players to weather the current market woes and prepare for an upcoming rise in gold.

More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold on May 6th

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The weekly chart scale of the major European currency pair shows that the dominant descending wave of recent months is nearing completion. The wave structure appears to be formed. The unfinished segment in the upward direction dates back to April 16.

Forecast:
We expect to see a general sideways movement in the euro's price in the upcoming week. One should expect an increase towards the calculated resistance zone in the coming days. Subsequently, there is a high probability of transitioning into a drift, followed by a further price decline. The greatest volatility is expected towards the end of the week.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
1.0870/1.0920
Support:
1.0620/1.0570

Recommendations:
Buying: Small volume purchases within the "intraday" framework can be profitable for the deposit.
Selling: Without confirmed reversal signals near the resistance zone, conditions for such transactions do not exist.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
Over the past year, the dominant upward wave of the main Japanese yen pair has been completed. The descending wave zigzag initiated on April 29 possesses reversal potential. Its structure began forming the middle part (B) at the end of last week. Quotes reached the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the H4 timeframe.

Forecast:
At the beginning of the upcoming week, there is a high probability of price movement within the corridor between the nearest counter zones. A transition to sideways drift is expected after possible pressure on the support zone. Towards the end of the week, one can expect a resumption of price growth towards the resistance boundaries.

Potential reversal zones
Resistance:
154.70/155.20
Support:
151.60/151.10

Recommendations:
Selling: Carries increased risk and may lead to losses for your deposit. Refraining from trading until the upcoming upward correction is completed is optimal.
Buying: Becomes possible after the appearance of reversal signals from your trading systems near the resistance zone.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:
The direction of movement of the British pound/Japanese yen pair since the end of September 2022 is determined by an ascending wave. On the weekly timeframe, it completes a larger ascending wave structure. The descending segment since April 29 possesses reversal potential and may mark the beginning of a correction of the main wave.

Forecast:
In the coming days, the flat character of the movement is expected to continue. A short-term increase in quotes to the resistance zone is not excluded. In the following days, an increase in volatility, a reversal, and a resumption of price decline are expected. A brief breach of the upper resistance boundary is possible upon course change.

Potential reversal zones
Resistance:
193.80/194.30
Support:
188.70/188.20

Recommendations:
Buying: It is suggested that the main attention be devoted to finding buy signals near the support zone.
Selling: It may become risky and not recommended in the coming days.

USD/CAD

Analysis:
The direction of movement of the Canadian dollar in the main pair since the end of December last year is determined by an ascending wave. The price has reached the boundaries of the wide potential reversal zone in the weekly timeframe. Since the middle of last month, pair quotes have predominantly moved sideways, forming a correction. The wave structure needs to be completed.

Forecast:
The most probable scenario for price movement in the coming days will be a gradual shifting sideways between the nearest counter zones. After a bounce in price towards the upper boundary of the channel, a decline in quotes towards the support area is expected.

Potential reversal zones
Resistance:
1.3730/1.3780
Support:
1.3580/1.3530

Recommendations:
Buying: High risk and may lead to losses.
Selling: Fractional volumes may be used within individual trading sessions.

NZD/USD

Brief analysis:
The unfinished wave structure of the New Zealand dollar chart is directed southward. It dates back to the end of December last year. The middle part (B) continues to form within the wave structure, resembling a horizontal plane. The resistance boundary runs along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone of the large timeframe.

Weekly forecast:
During the upcoming week, gradual movement towards the resistance zone is expected. After reaching the calculated resistance zone, there is a high probability of a downward correction to the support zone.

Potential reversal zones
Resistance:
0.6100/0.6150
Support:
0.5970/0.5920

Recommendations:
Buying: Has limited potential and may be used for scalping.
Selling: After confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone, it may become the main direction for trading this pair.

Gold

Analysis:
In the gold chart, the direction of short-term trends over the past year is determined by an ascending wave algorithm. Since mid-April, the wave has been correcting, forming an elongated plane. At the time of analysis, it does not appear complete, moving sideways flat along the calculated support zone.

Forecast:
In the coming days, the pair's price should complete the movement's correction phase. A subsequent reversal and price increase towards the resistance zone can be expected by the end of the upcoming week. Breaking out of the indicated price corridor is possible but unlikely.

Potential reversal zones
Resistance:
2360.0/2375.0
Support:
2290.0/2275.0

Recommendations:
Buying: Becomes possible after suitable signals appear near the support zone.
Selling: Conditions for such transactions will arise after confirmed signals appear near the resistance zone.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Growth continues: Wall Street in green for third day in a row

American stock indices ended trading higher on Monday, marking their third consecutive positive session. Investors are once again raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.

Global stock indicators also rose amid optimism about a likely rate cut. At the same time, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after a sharp rise last week associated with the proposed currency intervention.

Expectations for US central bank rate cuts fell during the year due to more persistent inflation. Some investors began to fear that a rate cut would not materialize at all, sending markets tumbling in April.

However, Friday's data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April. That eased pressure on the Federal Reserve, making it less likely that rates would remain high for long. Combined with an unexpectedly positive corporate earnings season, this has given investors fresh momentum in recent sessions.

Last week, the Fed signaled it was willing to consider cutting interest rates but wanted to make sure inflation was falling sustainably before making that decision. Fed officials repeated that statement Monday.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current level of interest rates should slow the economy enough to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. However, a strong labor market provides time to wait.

Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 46 basis points by the end of 2024, with the first cut forecast in September or November, according to rate probability app LSEG.

Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as in Asia, rose. The US labor market report on Friday was softer than expected, leading to renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy as early as September.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency's exchange rate against six major trading partners, fell for the fourth session in a row. It comes after Friday's data showed the weakest job growth since October, allaying fears that the Fed could raise rates again.

However, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain as the market hopes interest rates will be restrictive enough to slow the economy and reduce the rate of price increases, Conger said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 176.59 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852.27. The S&P 500 added 52.95 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 192.92 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349.25.

Most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended trading on a positive note. The energy sector was one of the top gainers, thanks in part to U.S. natural gas futures hitting their highest level in 14 weeks.

Chipmaker shares were broadly higher on Monday, including Arm Holdings, which added 5.2% ahead of this week's earnings release.

Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 4.7% after Baird upgraded the stock. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) also rose 3.4% and 6.1%, respectively, regaining ground lost after last week's disappointing earnings.

Paramount Global (PARA.O) shares rose 3.1% after exclusive talks with Skydance Media ended without a deal, allowing a special committee to consider offers from other bidders.

Tyson Foods (TSN.N) shares fell 5.7% despite beating Wall Street's second-quarter profit expectations as the company warned of pressure on consumers from persistent inflation.

At the same time, shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) fell 9.7% to a record low after weak guidance for second-quarter earnings.

The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 150 new highs and 54 new lows.

In Europe, the cross-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.53%. It comes amid signs the European Central Bank is confident of cutting rates as euro zone inflation continues to slow, three ECB policy makers said.

Philip Lane, Gediminas Simkus and Boris Vujicic said inflation and growth data supported their belief that eurozone inflation, which stood at 2.4% in April, would fall to the central bank's 2% target by the middle of next year. of the year.

The MSCI World Shares Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.50% to close at 1,066.73, its highest level since June 2022. Markets in the UK and Japan were closed due to holidays.

The dollar index was down 0.07% at 105.10, lifting the euro 0.07% to $1.0766.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 earnings per share growth forecast for companies in the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) to 6% from 3%. The bank noted that a 10% annual rise in Brent oil prices adds about 2.5 percentage points to annual earnings per share growth, and a 10% decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate adds about the same.

Treasury yields fell as investors weighed in on sluggish job creation last week, bolstering views that the U.S. economy is not overheated and will not be hampered by rate cuts.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1.3 basis points to 4.487% from 4.5% late Friday.

Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 43 basis points by year-end, with the first cut likely to come in September, according to rate probability app LSEG. Traders have cut their expectations to one cut in recent weeks due to signs of persistent inflation.

Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia raised June crude oil prices for most regions. In addition, the unlikely prospect of a quick ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has revived fears of renewed fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces.

U.S. crude rose 37 cents to $78.48 a barrel and Brent crude rose 37 cents to $83.33 a barrel.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) hit its highest level since February 2023, adding 0.66%, while the blue-chip China index (.CSI300) rose 1.5%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 4.7% last week, posting its longest daily winning streak since 2018. The index closed 0.55% higher on Monday.

Elsewhere, traders remain wary of potential yen volatility following past suspicions that Japanese authorities would intervene to stem the currency's sharp decline.

Tokyo is believed to have spent more than 9 trillion yen ($59 billion) to prop up its currency last week, pushing the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 to about a one-month high of 151.86 per dollar, according to the Bank of Japan. within a week.

On Monday, the yen gave up some of its ground and was last trading at 153.95 per dollar, representing a decline of 0.63%.

Gold prices rose amid a weakening dollar. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.9% to $2,331.20 an ounce.

Bitcoin added 0.65% to $63,343.00, while Ethereum was down 1.2% to $3,077.3.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 8-10, 2024: buy above $2,312 (21 SMA - symmetrical triangle)

Early in the European session, gold is trading around 2,310.68 forming a bearish bullish pennant pattern on the H4 chart.

Gold has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern formed since April 12. We believe that if there is a sharp break above 2,312 and consolidation above this area on the daily chart, gold could continue its rise and could reach 6/ 8 Murray at 2,375 and finally, 7/8 Murray around 2,437.

On April 18, gold left a GAP at about 2,392. If an upward movement occurs in the next few days and if gold consolidates above 2,375, the instrument could cover this GAP and even reach the psychological level of 2,400.

On the contrary, if gold falls and consolidates below the 21 SMA located at 2,312 and below 5/8 Murray, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA located at 2,295. The price could reach the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern around of 2,270.

Since the beginning of May, the eagle indicator has been showing a positive signal and we believe that an upward movement in gold could occur in the coming days. For this scenario to be confirmed, we must wait for the double break of the bullish flag and symmetrical triangle pattern.

If this scenario comes true, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy. On the contrary, we could continue selling below 2,310.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trading Signals for XAU/USD (GOLD) for May 14-16, 2024: buy above $2,342 (21 SMA - rebound)

Gold is trading around 2,343, around the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since early May. Gold, after a strong technical correction below 2,375, found a bottom around 2,330 which gave it an opportunity to recover.

The H4 chart shows that gold could resume its bullish cycle if it consolidates above 2,340 or 2,330 in the coming days.

If gold keeps its uptrend channel intact, a technical bounce around 2,330 would be a key point to buy with targets at 2,375 and 2,392. At this level, gold left a GAP on April 18 and the price is likely to reach this area so the GAP will be covered in the next few days.

If gold breaks and consolidates below 2,330, the outlook could be negative and we could expect a change in trend. Therefore, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 2,312 and the 200 EMA located at 2,301.

We believe that in the next few hours, gold could gain momentum and we can look for opportunities to buy, only if it settles above 2,330. Any pullback in the price will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 2,355, 2,375, and 2,392.

On May 10, the eagle indicator reached the oversold zone and we believe that gold could resume its bullish cycle as we see a relief in the bearish pressure so that gold could continue to rise.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Powell reassures investors: Nasdaq closes at record high, with focus on price index

The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high on Tuesday amid the close, while the S&P 500 and Dow also posted gains as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors ahead of a major consumer inflation report expected on Wednesday.

Producer prices in the US rose more than expected in April, especially due to significant increases in prices for services and goods, which forced investors to reconsider expectations for a reduction in interest rates in September.

However, speaking on Tuesday, Powell characterized the latest PPI data as mixed rather than an indication that the economy is warming, taking into account downward revisions to data from the previous period as well.

Powell's comment that he doesn't expect any near-term interest rate hikes despite recent data on high inflation also added to investor optimism.

"The market is now more confident in high rates over the long term. Much of the discussion has centered on the possibility of rate hikes, and Powell emphasized that this is not currently on the table," said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at Charlotte, North Carolina-based 248 Ventures. She also noted that the rise in stocks was observed against the backdrop of falling Treasury yields.

"The bond market seems to be adapting and the stock market is responding to the bond market," Bell added.

However, ahead of Wednesday, investors were cautiously awaiting consumer price index data to see whether the surprise growth recorded in the first quarter and April would continue.

Persistent inflation and a stable labor market have prompted a revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve's initial rate cut from March to September.

However, the stock market has posted strong gains this year on the back of strong, better-than-expected quarterly earnings and the prospect of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

While the tech-heavy Nasdaq index made a strong run to its record set on April 11, the S&P 500 ended the trading day 0.1% below its closing high on March 28. Likewise, the Dow Jones closed at less than 1% of its record high, also reached on March 28.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.60 points, or 0.32%, to 39,558.11. The S&P 500 added 25.26 points, or 0.48%, to 5,246.68, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 122.94 points, or 0.75%, to 16,511.18.

Among the 11 key industrial sectors in the S&P index, consumer staples posted the biggest decline, losing 0.2%, while the technology sector led gains, adding 0.9%.

Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares rose 0.7% after Google showed off innovations in its use of artificial intelligence, including an update to its Gemini chatbot and improvements to its search engine.

Home Depot (HD.N) shares closed down 0.1% after falling more than 2% on the day. The decline followed the retailer's quarterly report, which showed an unexpected decline in same-store sales as consumers switched to smaller home projects and cut spending on big-ticket items.

Alibaba's US-traded shares fell 6% after announcing an 86% drop in fourth-quarter profit.

Shares of athletic footwear maker On Holding jumped 18.3% after the company raised its full-year sales forecast ahead of quarterly expectations thanks to strong demand for its sneakers.

US President Joe Biden has announced steep tariff increases on imports of a range of Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products.

Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto, also listed in the U.S., fell more than 2%, while shares of Tesla (TSLA.O) rose more than 3%.

AMC Entertainment (AMC.N) shares soared nearly 32% to $6.85, while Koss Corp (KOSS.O) shares rose 40.7% to $6.15, among other stocks popular during the 2021 meme rally. year and shares in a short position.

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), AMC and GameStop were the most actively traded stocks, with advancers outnumbering decliners 2.43 to 1, with 358 new highs and 31 new lows.

Asian stock markets were higher on Wednesday, while the US dollar weakened as investors digested mixed US producer price data and awaited a key consumer price report that could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy.

MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.38% to hit a new 15-month high during the trading session. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.58%.

The latest data showed U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April, indicating persistent inflation at the start of the second quarter.

Shares of GameStop (GME.N) and AMC (AMC.N), popular among retail investors, jumped significantly after messages from Keith Gill, known as "Growling Kitten", leading to discussions about the possible return of a key figure of the 2021 meme rally.

In the Chinese market, stocks started the day lower, with the blue-chip index .CSI300 down 0.16% and the Hang Seng Index .HSI in Hong Kong down 0.22%.

US President Joe Biden announced significant tariff hikes on some Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products.

In currency markets, the dollar continued to slide as investors held back action ahead of consumer price index data, while the euro neared its one-month high, last trading at $1.0817.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, was seen at 105.01. The yen traded at 156.36 per dollar, having hit a two-week low of 156.80 on Tuesday, raising fears of new currency interventions by Japanese regulators.

On April 29, the yen fell to a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar, followed by aggressive yen buying that traders and analysts speculated was carried out by the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

Commodity prices rose in response to the threat of major wildfires in Canada's oil sands and ahead of expected declines in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories later in the day.

The US WTI crude oil price rose 0.4% to $82.71 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $78.39 a barrel. The spot price of gold remained virtually unchanged at $2,356.79 per ounce.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD loses its downward momentum

Today, the dollar index is trying to limit the falls of the last few days and is above 104.2. The EUR/USD exchange rate approached the 1.0900 mark.

This is more of an emotional outburst. The markets are evaluating the new inflation figures in the US. Already today, emotions should subside, as traders will start analyzing the situation with a cool head.

After the inflation publication, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis confirmed that it will probably be necessary to keep the rate at the current level for some more time and expressed doubts about how much it is holding the US economy back.

Experts at the Bank of America remain in the same position, believing that the first rate cut will not occur until December. To cut the rate in September, it is necessary that inflation slows further or labor market data weaken even more.

Still, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.32% on Wednesday, the lowest level since early April, as softer inflation data gives the Fed more flexibility to cut rates this year.

The dollar index has weakened over the past few days. The DXY is now near the price lows of April (103.95), which is the nearest support level. Perhaps within this range, the dollar's weakening will temporarily slow down. At least that is the picture we see now.

When will the Fed cut rates?

The main question is when the Fed will lower interest rates. This is of interest to analysts and financial market observers. According to analysis and forecasts, the likely month to start cutting rates is still September, as key elements of US inflation have started to show declines.

DNB Markets writes that they believed that current data would not change the likelihood of a rate cut in the autumn, provided inflation data remained moderate and labor market conditions continued to improve. Their forecasts indicate that the market expects the first rate cut in September.

According to inflation data released on Wednesday, overnight index swaps, which reflect traders' expectations of future interest rates, show that the market now fully appreciates the likelihood of a rate cut in September.

Two weeks ago, the first cut was not expected until December.

In 2024, expectations for a Fed rate cut have fallen significantly due to higher inflation in the first quarter of the year. Signals have emerged that some elements of the inflation basket will resist a change.

This boosted US bond yields and the US dollar in currency markets. Such a situation could happen again.

Until core inflation (excluding housing costs) and housing costs decline, the overall inflation rate will not be able to hold steady at the Fed's 2.0% target.

Housing costs, which account for about 40% of the overall consumer price index, have risen as a result of steady increases in home prices and rents in recent years.

However, PNC Bank says the April 2024 consumer price report may bring some relief to Fed policymakers, as the most stable housing and core services segments of the CPI showed the first signs of softening in a long time.

The core CPI declined to 0.2% month-over-month, and house price growth was just +0.2% month-over-month, the lowest since January 2021 (+0.6%).

PNC's forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, in September and December, now seems more reasonable than earlier in 2024.

Other analysts are expressing a similar view. Berenberg believes the current inflation data makes it slightly more likely that the Fed will start cutting rates sooner.

"We continue to expect one 25-bp rate cut in December and three further such moves next year to bring the Fed funds target rate to 4.25–4.50%," Berenberg wrote.

Economists at Wells Fargo and Pantheon Macroeconomics also share this view. It takes some favorable inflation indicators for the Fed to feel confident about a rate cut. The first rate cut is possible at the FOMC meeting in September.

Pantheon Macroeconomics argues that the case for expecting a further slowdown in core inflation remains strong. Supply chains have stabilized, wage growth is slowing, and corporate margins remain strong, pointing to the outlook for the future.

Economists also note the lack of threat from global food and energy prices, as well as subdued rent growth and lower car prices. This indicates a slowdown in auto insurance inflation.

Thus, the stage is set for a further slowdown in the core CPI this summer, allowing the Fed to begin easing in September.

With the market consensus increasingly leaning toward a September rate cut, all eyes will be on upcoming macroeconomic data that could confirm these expectations.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Wall Street Week: Key Events and Forecasts for the Days Ahead

At the end of the day on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.34%, reaching a new record level, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Composite Index, on the contrary, decreased by 0.07%.

Among the stocks included in the Dow Jones index, Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) stood out with a gain of 5.65 points (1.61%) to 356.37. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) shares rose 2.38 points (1.18%) to end at 204.85. Also worth noting is Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), whose shares rose 2.03 points (1.11%) to close the day at 184.99.

On the other hand, Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:AMGN) shares were down 2.25 points (0.71%) to end the day at 312.47. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) rose 0.20 points (0.62%) to close at 31.83, while Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) fell 0.20 points (0.50%). ), ending the session at 40.05.

Among the growth leaders among the components of the S&P 500 index are shares of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO), which rose by 4.82%, reaching 166.14, shares of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX), which increased by 4 .25% to 54.25, and Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB), up 3.60% to 274.43.

Meanwhile, Paramount Global Class B (NASDAQ:PARA) shares fell 4.91% to close at 12.02. Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) fell 3.29% to end the day at 117.31, while Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ:LRCX) fell 3.27% to finish at 912.07.

In Friday trading on the NASDAQ Composite stock exchange, shares of Fangdd Network Group Ltd (NASDAQ:DUO) showed significant growth, soaring by 309.76%, reaching a price of 1.68. Also, FLJ Group Ltd (NASDAQ:FLJ) rose 223.59% to finish the day at 1.55, and Jeffs Brands Ltd Unit (NASDAQ:JFBR) rose 109.03% to finish the day at 0. .65.

At the same time, Blue Star Foods Corp (NASDAQ:BSFC) saw a significant decline of 45.19% to close at 0.08. SINTX Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SINT) shares fell 39.29% to close at 0.09. Heart Test Laboratories Inc Unit (NASDAQ:HSCS) fell 38.37% to close at 6.97.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of stocks whose prices increased (1,570) outnumbered the number of stocks that closed lower (1,256), while 85 stocks remained unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, the situation was less favorable: here shares of 1,790 companies lost value, 1,570 showed growth, and 125 remained at the same level.

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) shares hit a new high, rising 4.25% or 2.21 points to finish the day at 54.25. Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB) also set a record, rising 3.60% or 9.55 points to close at 274.43.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) shares hit a high, rising 1.18% or 2.38 points to finish at 204.85. While Heart Test Laboratories Inc Unit (NASDAQ:HSCS) shares fell to a record low, losing 38.37% or 4.34 points to end the day at 6.97.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market expectations based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.46% to a three-year low of 11.99.

Gold futures for June delivery rose 1.46%, or 34.85, to $2.00 a troy ounce. WTI crude oil futures prices for June rose 0.95%, or 0.75, to close at $79.98 a barrel. Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 0.80%, or 0.67, to $83.94 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD remained virtually unchanged, rising just 0.05% to hit 1.09, while USD/JPY rose 0.20% to hit 155.68.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of foreign currencies, advanced slightly by 0.02% to close at 104.37.

Historical data indicates that the current recovery in the US stock market, which led to record highs this week, may continue into the future.

A slowdown in economic growth eased inflation concerns in May, spurring the three major US stock market indexes to hit all-time highs. The S&P 500, which lost more than 4% in April, is now up 11% year-to-date.

Market analysts who study historical data note that stocks tend to rise faster after corrections of comparable magnitude, and often continue to rise even after recovering lost ground.

Following this pattern, the current recovery could herald further gains in stock prices. After past 5% declines in the S&P 500, the subsequent average gain has been 17.4%, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. At the close of trading on Friday, the index was already up nearly 7% from its April lows.

Investors are also expressing increased optimism about the economy's prospects for a so-called "soft landing" as well as forecasts for strong corporate profits, which could fuel further gains in stock prices.

Market activity will be tested on Wednesday when Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares have jumped on a wave of interest in artificial intelligence, reports its quarterly financial results.

Investors will also focus on durable goods data and consumer sentiment next week, expecting to see further evidence of slowing economic growth that could support the case for interest rate cuts this year.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted that momentum plays a significant role in determining how different market segments will perform post-recovery. He pointed out that the S&P 500 sectors that led during the market's post-correction recovery outperformed the overall market 68% of the time. Stovall analyzed 35 market advances since 1990.

Stovall's main takeaway is: "After recovering from a correction, it is important to allow your leaders to continue moving higher."

The most recent market recovery was led by the technology (.SPLRCT), utilities (.SPLRCU) and real estate (.SPLRCR) sectors, which posted gains of 11.3%, 10.1% and 7.9%, respectively.

Currently, all 11 S&P 500 sectors are ahead of their 200-day moving averages, said Willie Delwiche, an independent investment strategist and business professor at Lutheran College of Wisconsin.

Delwiche found that when at least nine sectors beat these trend indicators, the average annual return of the S&P 500 index reaches 13.5%.

However, a number of external factors can disrupt this growth. For example, despite recent data pointing to slowing inflation and tepid labor market growth, weak signs of a sustained cooling in the economy could reignite fears of an overheated economy, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even raise them.

Despite the positive economic signals, Federal Reserve officials are not yet inclined to change their plans to cut rates, which many investors expect to begin this year.

It's also worth noting that many stocks are highly valued, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.8, well above the historical average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

Banking strategists advise focusing on possible short-term sell-offs, given that ultimately the economic context will be decisive. They predict the S&P 500 could rise about 4% to 5,500 over the course of the year.

Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Nasdaq records highs and S&P rises: All eyes on Nvidia

The Nasdaq hit record highs on Monday, while the S&P 500 posted modest gains as technology stocks advanced, ahead of Nvidia's results. The market also assessed the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Among the S&P's major sectors, technology .SPLRCT led the pack, rising 1.32%, led by gains from chipmakers including Nvidia, which rose 2.49% ahead of its quarterly earnings report.

Investors are looking at Nvidia's earnings to see whether the artificial intelligence leader will maintain its rapid growth and advantage over rivals.

Several brokerages increased their targets for Nvidia, and Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 2.96% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "equal weight" from "underweight." The PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX) rose 2.15%.

Stephen Massocca, a senior vice president at San Francisco-based Wedbush Securities, said: "If Nvidia's results exceed expectations, it could cause a bit of a stir. However, given the high cost, significant growth is unlikely."

"A Fed rate cut could spark a rally, but current data doesn't yet support that scenario."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 196.82 points, or 0.49%, to 39,806.77. While the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) rose 4.86 points, or 0.09%, to 5,308.13, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) rose 108.91 points, or 0.65%. , closing at 16,794.87.

The Dow's decline came as JPMorgan (JPM.N) shares fell 4.5% after CEO Jamie Dimon expressed "cautious pessimism" and noted that the company has no plans to buy back shares at current prices.

A strong earnings season and signs of slowing inflation have reignited expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, pushing major indexes to record levels. Let's remember that last week the Dow Jones index (.DJI) exceeded 40,000 points for the first time.

Fed officials' comments on Monday had little impact on interest rate forecasts, despite their insistence that inflation pressures were easing and emphasizing the importance of a cautious approach.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Markets estimate the chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the September meeting at 63.3%.

The latest stock market rally has raised concerns about lofty stock valuations, with the S&P 500 trading at a P/E ratio of 20.8, well above its historical average of 15.9, according to LSEG.

Deutsche Bank raised its end-2024 forecast for the S&P 500 to 5,500 from a previous 5,100, the highest expected level among leading brokerages. In turn, Morgan Stanley predicts that the index will reach 5,400 points by June 2025.

Shares of the Norwegian cruise line (NCLH.N) rose 7.56% after the company raised its full-year profit forecast. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.14 to 1. At the same time, on the Nasdaq, declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones by a ratio of 1.01 to 1.

The S&P 500 has recorded 58 new highs and four new lows over the past 52 weeks, while the Nasdaq has posted 222 new highs and 101 new lows. Trading volume on US exchanges reached 12.31 billion shares, exceeding the last 20 trading days' average of 11.82 billion.

Asian markets were lower and the dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, which could provide clues about the timing and extent of a potential interest rate cut this year.

Gold prices retreated from Monday's record high and oil prices fell on concerns that U.S. interest rates could remain high for a long time due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to the recent decline in inflation.

Cryptocurrencies including ether and bitcoin hit new six-week highs amid speculation the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for ether.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down 0.9% after the Hang Seng retreated 1.9% from its multi-month high hit on Monday.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225), which tracks technology stocks, subsequently edged 0.1% lower after rising to record highs overnight.

Nasdaq futures fell 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures remained steady after rising 0.1% the previous day.

"Market sentiment continues to remain relatively stable with low implied volatility, supported by confidence in the possibility of US interest rate cuts this year," Kyle Rodda, senior markets analyst at Capital.com, said in an analysis.

In addition, record price levels for metals such as gold and copper "act as indicators of a pick-up in economic activity around the world, which in turn could act as a headwind for inflation," Rodda added.

Gold fell 0.3% to around $2,417 an ounce, after first rising to $2,450 overnight.

The dollar held its ground against major currencies, with the dollar index remaining at 104.62, recovering from a five-week low of 104.07 recorded on Thursday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was little changed at 4.4433% after rising 1.7 basis points on Monday.

Brent crude fell 0.7% to $83.17 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.7% to $79.22 a barrel.

At the same time, after the announcement that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unexpectedly required exchanges wishing to trade Ethereum ETFs to update their regulatory documents, traders were actively purchasing cryptocurrencies. The development raised expectations that approval for trading could come as soon as this week, sending the market to new highs.

Bitcoin hit $71,957 while Ethereum rose to $3,720.80, both setting highs not seen since April 9.

"Expectations regarding the approval of the Ethereum ETF have significantly impacted market activity, adding to the already growing bullish trend in the cryptocurrency space. The move gained further momentum after lower-than-expected US CPI data was released last week," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

Sycamore predicts that Bitcoin could soon again reach its all-time high of $73,803.25 and possibly even surpass the $80,000 mark.

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