USDJPY - The epidemiological situation in Japan is rapidly deteriorating

According to the World Health Organization, Japan has come out on top in the world in terms of the daily increase in the incidence of coronavirus. More than 200.0K cases of infection were registered yesterday, which has already become the reason for limiting the work of several large industries. The country is fighting the seventh wave of the pandemic. The country's southernmost prefecture, Okinawa, has been hardest hit by the new outbreak, according to authorities, but Tokyo, Osaka, and Hokkaido prefectures in the far north are also on the rise. However, the government does not intend to introduce strict quarantine restrictions soon, citing low mortality and urging the population to get vaccinated. Macroeconomic indicators also show negative dynamics, with the leading indicators index down 1.7% after rising 2.1% in June, and foreign investment in Japanese stocks fell to 298.1B yen this week from 475.0B yen earlier.

The trading instrument is within the global uptrend, declining to the support line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, which is actively weakening: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range narrows and the AO oscillator histogram forms new downward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 134.74, 132.16 | Resistance levels: 136.86, 139.34

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NZDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6223, a Marubozu pattern is forming, signaling that the buyers have seized the initiative. The appearance of two Hammer patterns also confirms the strengthening of the "bullish" sentiment. In the current situation, the continuation of the upward trend towards the resistance level of 0.6371 is possible, consolidation of the price above which will allow the asset to recover lost positions and head to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711. If the "bears" break the support level of 0.6223, the negative dynamics will develop to 0.5920.

NZDUSD, D1

On the daily chart, there is a falling Wedge price pattern, from where the price of the trading instrument went upwards. Its development has not yet been completed, and the upward dynamics of quotations are intensifying. It is confirmed by forming a series of Hammer reversal patterns, signaling the bottom has been reached. Currently, the price is trying to break the resistance level of 0.6371. If successful, the quotes will continue to move to the area of 0.6541− 0.6711.

Support levels: 0.6223, 0.6106, 0.592 | Resistance levels: 0.6371, 0.6541, 0.6711

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The shares of Walmart, the US company that operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, are in the 132 area.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 120–135. On a four-hour chart, the asset approached the solid resistance line of the 134 range, formed at the end of January 2022, and continued growth is possible only if the quotes consolidate above it.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the corrective upward dynamics, holding a buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms ambiguous bars in the buying zone.

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GBPUSD - Trading within the global downward channel

At the end of last week, almost 80% of all train traffic in the country came to a halt, paralyzing the domestic supply chains of goods due to the strike of railway workers, caused by a sharp increase in prices for food and goods, which has been going on since the beginning of summer. Also, the British pound is negatively affected by macroeconomic statistics: the volume of mortgage lending in June fell to 5.27B pounds from 8.04B in May, while the volume of private net loans fell to 7.1B from 8.9B a month earlier. The reason for the negative dynamics of the indicator was the active increase in the interest rate, which prevents consumers from planning the cost of loans.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2268, 1.2652 | Support levels: 1.2063, 1.1757

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EURUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed. Now, the upward wave (C) has started, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the levels of 1.0612–1.0787. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.

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Gold is correcting at 1774 amid strengthening of the downtrend of the US dollar, which fell from 108 to 105 in the USD Index, acting as a catalyst for the movement of capital into safe-haven assets.

Swap dealers have seen a record liquidation of short positions since the week before last, and the continuation of this trend may mean that the trend in gold is likely to change soon. The report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also showed a decrease of 5.153K contracts in this category, which significantly reduced the difference in the accumulated positions. Now buyers have 92.205K contracts, and sellers have 174.234K contracts.

The situation on the gold market is developing in such a way that the balance of sellers and buyers may soon change in favor of the latter. At the very least, the number of general speculative positions backed by money obviously slowed down the decline: if in early July they were adjusted by an average of 15 - 20K contracts per week, last week the reduction was only 2.3K contracts.

On the global chart of the asset, the formation of a wide descending channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650 continues, and now the price is making its first attempt to overcome the resistance line. Technical indicators weaken a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have almost approached the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 1753, 1696 | Resistance levels: 1787, 1847

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USDCAD - Growth in possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 5 forms, within which the wave 3 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, within which the wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.341 – 1.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2521.

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Crude Oil - Investors pending OPEC+ decisions

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will gather for a meeting via videoconference. Investors are watching the upcoming meeting with interest for several reasons. First, a new secretary-general, Haytham Al Ghais will be introduced, succeeding Mohammad Barkindo. The second reason lies in the timing of the implementation of the OPEC+ agreement. The fact is that the participating countries plan to reach pre-crisis levels of oil production by September, and in order to meet this deadline, production levels gradually increased to 432 thousand barrels per day in June and up to 648 thousand barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ is currently 2.84 million barrels per day behind schedule, according to the OPEC+ Technical Committee, which could force the organization to take more "hawkish" moves at today's meeting. Almost all parties to the deal are now at the limit of their production capacity, with only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates having spare capacity, which are likely to increase production levels further.

In this regard, there is no need to talk about a stable uptrend. In the event of a change in current plans, one should expect a continuation of a local decline in energy quotations, as world demand is not yet able to cope with such a high supply.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is kept within the local downward channel and may make a new attempt to overcome the support level in the near future.

Support levels: 91.68, 84.1 | Resistance levels: 97.57, 106.74

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GBPUSD - Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to continue raising the rate

Yesterday, the analysts of the large bank UBS Group published a forecast regarding the prospects for the national currency for the autumn period, suggesting a decrease in quotations to 1.1500. Among the key reasons for the negative dynamics, experts cite high prices for electricity and energy resources amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as problems in supply chains. Macroeconomic statistics confirm the deterioration of indicators: according to data for July, Composite PMI fell to 52.1 points from 53.7 points in June, and Services PMI corrected to 52.6 points from 54.3 points a month earlier and this is the lowest value since March 2021.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.2244, 1.2651 | Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1818

USDCAD - Canadian unemployment forecast to rise

Analysts predict the first increase since May 2021 in the average unemployment rate from 4.9% to 5.0% in July, which may be caused by macroeconomic statistics: for example, business activity in the manufacturing sector in July fell to 52.5 points from 54.6 points a month earlier, and this is the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Also, today will be published June data on building permits issued, the number of which may decrease by 1.5% after May's growth of 2.3%.

The US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index ahead of today's publication of unemployment data: Initial Jobless Claims may slightly increase to 259.0K from 256.0K, and against the background of poor last week's results, even such a slight increase will be perceived positively. Experts also note the negative forecasts regarding Friday's report on employment in the non-agricultural sector, where it is possible to reduce the number of jobs to 250.0K from 372.0K a month earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.26 – 1.32, trading in the middle of the range. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.29, 1.3041 | Support levels: 1.2785, 1.2643

NZDUSD - New Zealand labor market statistics disappointed investors

The dynamics were largely due to a disappointing report on the labor market in New Zealand: the Q2 unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, although analysts had expected a decline to 3.1%, and the percentage change in employment from the previous quarter did not happen at all with forecasts of growth of 0.4%. According to statistics, the share of the economically active population decreased to 70.80%, while preliminary estimates of the figure were 71.00%. To the labor market, the commodity price index has also shown negative dynamics for the fourth month in a row: the value lost 2.2% after falling by 0.4% a month earlier, and in such conditions, we cannot speak of stable growth of the NZDUSD pair.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, correcting towards the local resistance. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6329, 0.6556 | Support levels: 0.6238, 0.6061

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