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Posts: 1 to 25 of 29

Topic: Market Update by Solidecn.com

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EUR USD, investors expect inflation data in the EU
The European currency is trading with a slight slowdown after yesterday's strong growth, caused by investors' reaction to the wage increase in the EU in the first quarter by 2.70% from 1.50%, but today's data will have a key impact on the dynamics of the instrument. In the middle of the day, Eurostat will publish May's CPI, which estimates inflation, and the monthly increase could be 0.8% against the 0.6% shown in April, and the growth will remain around 8.1% YoY. As for the core consumer price index, which does not consider food and fuel prices, analysts do not expect positive dynamics and expect the value to remain at the April level of 3.8%.

After three days of being near the year's highs, around 105 in the USD Index, Quotes of the American currency reversed downwards and rolled back to 104 against the backdrop of disappointing data on the US labor market. Initial Jobless Claims amounted to 229K, which exceeds the quoted market expectations of 215K, and the total number of citizens receiving payments from the state consolidated at 1.312M compared to 1.309M last week. Investors drew attention to a significant decrease in the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Fed in June to –3.3 points from 2.6 points in May.

https://i.ibb.co/3d2vwD0/eurusd.png

The trading instrument moves within a narrow downward channel, approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another down bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0778 | Support levels: 1.0377, 1.0151

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AUD USD, the uptrend is possible
AUD USD continues its uncertain corrective dynamics, trading at 0.6997 after the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published labor market data in May. According to the report, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.9% for the third consecutive month, signaling a slowdown in labor force growth. Despite this, Employment Change in the country increased by 60.6K to 13.510M people, and the Participation Rate grew to 66.7%, although the Unemployment Change increased by 7.8K people, amounting to 548.1K. Thus, the national labor market is actively recovering, which provides support to the national economy.

In turn, two key blocks of statistics were published yesterday in the US, which influenced the quotes. Initial Jobless Claims amounted to 229K, which exceeded the 215K projected by analysts, and Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.312M from 1.309M. In addition, a report on the state of the housing market was released, according to which in May the Building Permits Change fell to 1.695M from 1.823M a month earlier, which led to a decrease in the Housing Starts to 1.549M from 1.810M a month earlier.

https://i.ibb.co/LRcKbSN/audusd.png

On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading within the Expanding Formation pattern, making a second attempt to implement the 5th wave. Technical indicators have already begun to weaken the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line and the histogram of the AO oscillator has almost reached the transition level.

Support levels: 0.6966, 0.6850 | Resistance levels: 0.7072, 0.7265

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Intel, the price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (iv) of iii the price will fall to the levels of 31.5 - 24.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 48.95.

https://i.ibb.co/j8GRQr7/intel.png

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Nasdaq 100, formation of a global descending channel
One of the leading US indices, the Nasdaq 100, shows a downward trend, being at 11211. Due to the continued decline of stock markets, investors are increasingly paying attention to third-party markers that can describe and predict the future behavior of stocks. So, according to the Dow Jones Market Data report, for the first 100 days of this year, the combined dynamics of the leading US indices Dow Jones and S&P 500 was estimated by experts to be the weakest since 1970, and of the Nasdaq 100 technology index – even in the entire history of observations. Among the main reasons are high inflation and the insufficiently transparent policy of the US Fed regarding the regulation of interest rates.

As for global dynamics, the Buffett indicator, popular among bidders, reached 205%, which points out a significant revaluation of the stock market relative to the current state of the economy and hints at a possible continuation of the collapse in prices. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market composite stock market capitalization index was 46.69T dollars, and the latest GDP data was 22.72T dollars, which corresponds to 205% in terms of the coefficient, reflecting the highest value in history, whereas before the 2008 crisis it was about 150%.
   
https://i.ibb.co/ZMKsC9y/nq.png

The index quotes continue to form a global descending channel, declining in the direction of the support line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMAs of the alligator indicator is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sales zone.         

Support levels: 11000, 10000 | Resistance levels: 11730, 12950

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Stocks of Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook, the world's largest social network, continue to trade in a corrective trend and are around the 160 mark. At the end of last week, the results of almost a decade of the company's activity were finally summed up. The last thing that connected Meta Platforms Inc. with the previous name was its stock ticker FB, which has now also changed to META and is already used in trading on the Nasdaq exchange. It should be noted that the rebranding did not contribute to improving the financial situation of the company. Since the beginning of 2022, the shares have fallen by 51.4%, and there are no prerequisites for a trend change yet. Previously, the Ministry of Digital Information of the Russian Federation published statistics according to which Meta Platforms Inc. lost about 80% of its traffic on social networks Facebook and Instagram due to blocking in the country. Through dedicated VPN channels, services are now visited by only 10%-12% of the volume recorded before blocking.

As for the global state, the financial report for Q2 will be published in July, which may reflect revenue of 29.29B dollars and earnings per share of 2.63 dollars, which is even inferior to the 2.72 dollars shown in Q1.   

https://i.ibb.co/NjSsT59/meta.png

The price is trading in a global downtrend and on the eve set a new low of the year at around 160. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable sell signal: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sales zone, forms descending bars.

Support levels: 155, 130 | Resistance levels: 175, 211


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NZD USD, technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the level of 0.6224, a "bullish" Inverted Hammer candlestick analysis pattern is formed, which is a signal for a price reversal at the bottom. The "bullish" trend in the asset is also confirmed by the appearance of the Engulfing Pattern, which indicates that, most likely, the asset has reached the bottom and is currently forming a reversal. A more likely scenario for further movement of the NZD USD quotes is an uptrend towards the resistance level of 0.6476, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the zone of 0.6709–0.6986. An alternative scenario is possible if the support level of 0.6224 is overcome with the target of 0.5931–0.5694.

https://i.ibb.co/rwyNfkW/nzdusd-1.png

D1
The daily chart shows the formation of a Double Bottom price pattern, which is a reversal. In addition, a confirming signal is the formation of a Bullish Candle at the support level of 0.6224, which indicates the prevailing "bullish" power. The reversal is also confirmed by the formation of a Hammer Pattern indicating that buyers have taken control of the market and intend to raise the price in the range of 0.6476–0.6986.

https://i.ibb.co/VMFg6GG/nzdusd-2.png

Support levels: 0.6224, 0.5931, 0.5694 | Resistance levels: 0.6476, 0.6709, 0.6986

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Crude Oil - The price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 123.8.

https://i.ibb.co/R2JBRrW/oil.png

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Silver - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the XAG/USD pair will fall to the levels of 18.4 – 15.6. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.52.

https://i.ibb.co/WvJb8Dw/silver.png

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Netflix - The price may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 326.97 – 397. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 163.03.

https://i.ibb.co/q0xmz7P/netflix.png

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USD CHF, the pair is trading within a wide range of 1.004 – 0.956
Last week, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points to –0.25% for the first time in seven years, which caused the USD CHF pair to fall to 0.9650. Officials, led by Chairman Thomas Jordan, also spoke of the possibility of further tightening monetary policy and added that they would remain "active" in the foreign exchange market. Meanwhile, inflation in Switzerland continues to rise: the producer price index for May increased by 0.9%, and the upward trend is likely to continue, as a result of which the regulator will raise rates at the next meetings, which in the medium term can strengthen the Swiss franc.

However, the long-term trend in the USD CHF pair remains upward. After the test of 1.0040 and the buyers' inability to break through it, the price went into a correction and is currently testing the support level of 0.9650. If traders hold this level, the asset will continue to grow with the target at the month's high, and in case of a breakdown, a correction is expected with the target at the key support of the trend at 0.9560.

https://i.ibb.co/THNX1Cw/usdchf-1.png

The medium-term trend is downwards, and within its framework, the trading instrument has broken through the target zone 3 (0.9710 – 0.9699). The next sell target is zone 4 (0.9601–0.9591). Last week, the asset corrected to the key trend resistance area of 0.9738–0.9728, held by market participants. As a result, the USD CHF pair is now falling with the first target around last week's low of 0.9622.

Resistance levels: 1.0040, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9650, 0.956

https://i.ibb.co/CmNF48D/usdchf-2.png

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Crude Oil: prices are recovering after a sharp decline last week
Quotations are supported by data indicating growing imports of oil and oil products from China. According to the report of the General Administration of Customs of China, "black gold" from Russia is sent to the country both by sea and through the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean pipeline. In May, deliveries reached 1.98 million barrels per day, which was a record value, exceeding the April figure by a quarter, while for liquefied gas this figure was fixed at around 400 thousand tons, adding 56% compared to May 2021. Analysts note that the discount policy adopted by Russian officials against the backdrop of sanctions imposed after the start of the military conflict in Ukraine contributes to the increase in imports.

Investors expect that the recovery of the Chinese economy will contribute to a further increase in demand for petroleum products, which will support prices at current levels or contribute to their growth. In turn, fears about possible interruptions in Russian supplies to Western countries still persist. By the end of this year, the EU intends to significantly reduce the volume of imports of oil from the Russian Federation, and then to find alternative sources altogether.

In the near future, investors expect the publication of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of "black gold" reserves for the week ended June 17. The previous report showed a weak increase of 0.736 million barrels, which, however, put additional pressure on the quotes.

https://i.ibb.co/BnrQnXJ/oil-1.png

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is testing the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the growing risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.09, 116, 120, 123.24 | Support levels: 112, 109, 106, 102.57

https://i.ibb.co/hZZQqL3/oil-2.png

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GBPUSD - The pair may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the GBP USD pair will fall within the wave (v) of v to the levels of 1.175 – 1.155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2412.

https://i.ibb.co/Hz51B8z/gbpusd.png

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USDJPY - The probability of a downward correction remains
The USD JPY pair is trading around 135.11. The asset failed to break the resistance level of 135.5, which suggests the development of a downward correction. Last Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at –0.10%. Earlier, representatives of the regulator have repeatedly announced their intention to adhere to the course of ultra-soft monetary policy to increase household spending and stabilize the labor market. Now the focus of investors is on the minutes of the meeting on the monetary policy of the central bank, which will be published on Wednesday. Considering the latest changes, inflation in Japan was 2.5% YoY, and the base indicator reached 2.1%, which is above the target level of 2.0%. Traders want to know how long the current approach to monetary policy will last and when to expect a move to tighten.

As for the US dollar, the likelihood of its appreciation remains against the backdrop of the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve. On Friday, the department's chairman, Jerome Powell, reaffirmed his determination to contain inflation, which peaked in the last 40 years, and declared his readiness to continue adjusting interest rates further.

After the technical correction, the next target for the USD JPY pair quotes will be 139 and 141.

https://i.ibb.co/h1G5pXM/usdjpy-1.png

The long-term trend is upwards. Now the price is trading below the resistance level of 135.5, which implies the possibility of opening short positions with the target at 131.4 but in case of its breakout, the positive dynamics will continue to 139.

The medium-term trend remains upwards. Last week, traders unsuccessfully tested the key trend support 131.63–131.29, as a result of which an increase in the number of open long positions was recorded, the target of which is to renew the high of the last week and then move to zone 3 (137.09–136.72).

Resistance levels: 135.5, 139, 141 | Support levels: 131.4, 126.5, 124.08

https://i.ibb.co/jMhpTrr/usdjpy-2.png

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Nvidia - The price may fall

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 100 – 50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 196.

https://i.ibb.co/tJ4sC69/nvda.png

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ETH USD - Murray analysis
The ETHUSD pair continues to trade within a wide descending channel and last week fell to its lower border in the area of the lowest values since December 2020 at 880.

Currently, the price is making an attempt to grow, but for a serious recovery it needs to break above the level of 1562.5 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement of 23.6%, Murray [1/8]). In this case, the movement will continue to the levels of 1875 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%, Murray [2/8]) and 2187.5 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%, Murray [3/8], the upper line of the Bollinger Bands). The key for the "bears" remains the level of 937.50 (Murray [-1/8]), at the breakdown of which the downward dynamics will continue to the area of 625.00 (Murray [-1/8]), 500. The current downward trend persists: the Bollinger Bands have reversed downwards, while the Stochastic is directed upwards, and the MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone, which creates the probability of a corrective growth, but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

https://i.ibb.co/k14BDCV/eth.png

Resistance levels: 1562.5, 1875, 2187.5 | Support levels: 937.5, 625, 500

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USD CAD - The pair may grow

If the assumption is correct, the USD CAD pair will grow to the levels of 1.3410–1.3700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2507.

https://i.ibb.co/LPGb668/usdcad.png

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AUD USD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 0.6901 there is a "bullish" Engulfing Pattern, which signals a price reversal at the bottom, as well as a Bullish Belt Hold pattern, explaining that the buyers attempted to counterattack, but the "bears" seized the initiative, which became a driver for the decline in instrument quotes. At the moment, the most likely scenario is with an uptrend from the support level of 0.6841 to the resistance area of 0.7048, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to move higher into the range of 0.7270–0.7581. An alternative scenario may be relevant if the buyers fail to hold the support level of 0.6841: then the price may fall down to the level of 0.6539.

https://i.ibb.co/y0r1nNQ/audusd-1.png

D1
On the daily chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern. An additional signal for a reversal may be the formation of a large Bullish Candle above the support level of 0.6841, which is also a Bullish Belt Hold pattern. Next is the formation of another Bullish Belt Hold pattern, which is similar to the Piercing Pattern of the reversal at the bottom. In the current situation, it is possible to retest the level of 0.6841, from where the instrument may bounce to the resistance level of 0.7048, with its subsequent overcoming and the price recovering to the zone of 0.7270–0.7581.

https://i.ibb.co/P5HkJbq/audusd-2.png

Support levels: 0.6841, 0.6693, 0.6539 | Resistance levels: 0.7048, 0.7270, 0.7581

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XAU USD - Metal quotes are developing a downward trend
Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the publication of inflation statistics from the UK, as well as the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who, as analysts hope, will outline the immediate prospects for monetary policy. So, some agency representatives said they were not opposed to another rate hike by 75 basis points, and a more conservative position still suggests an increase of only 50 basis points, after which a pause will be required to assess the measures taken.

Quotes of gold, traditionally protective assets, are supported by growing fears about a slowdown in the global economy. Also, the geopolitical risks associated with the development of a military conflict in Ukraine are not weakening yet, while the countries of the world are forced to deal with the consequences of a sharp increase in energy prices. Analysts are confident that rapid inflation on a global scale and a slowdown in economic growth can catalyze stagflation in the US economy, and the US Federal Reserve's measures to tighten monetary policy will be insufficient. It, in turn, will allow gold to regain investor interest and overcome the level of 2000.

An additional negative factor for the metal is the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds amid expectations of further actions by the American regulator. As new signals for the asset, there is the talk about a possible restriction of Russian gold imports by European countries in the next sanctions packages from the EU. In particular, Denmark has previously announced such a possibility.

https://i.ibb.co/KK7swRD/gold.png

Resistance levels: 1843.37, 1857.27, 1869.49, 1878.84 | Support levels: 1823.09, 1800, 1775, 1752.87

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NZD USD - New Zealand dollar remains under pressure
The New Zealand dollar is actively falling during morning trading, testing the level of 0.6265 for a breakdown. NZD USD is updating local lows from June 16, reacting to the recovery in demand for the "safe" US dollar, as well as to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation after the Lithuanian authorities announced restrictions on the transit of Russian goods to the territory of Kaliningrad.

Additional pressure on the positions of the trading instrument was exerted by rather weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Westpac Consumer Survey in Q2 2022 fell from 92.1 to 78.7 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 100 points. Global Dairy Trade index declined 1.3% after gaining 1.5% in the prior period, with only a 0.1% downward correction forecast. The volume of Exports from New Zealand in May rose from 6.16 billion to 6.95 billion dollars; however, against the backdrop of an increase in imports from 5.72 billion to 6.69 billion dollars, the trade deficit in May only increased from –9.29 billion to –9.52 billion dollars.

https://i.ibb.co/WKhJWrv/nzdusd.png

Resistance levels: 0.63, 0.635, 0.64, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6244, 0.62, 0.6156, 0.61

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USD CHF - The pair may grow

If the assumption is correct, the USD CHF pair will grow to the levels of 1.02 – 1.035. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9549.

https://i.ibb.co/KNMP5ts/usdchf.png

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Nasdaq 100 - Murray analysis
The Nasdaq 100 index continues to move within the long-term downward channel. This week, the price tried to start a corrective growth, having reversed around the level of 11250 ([2/8]), but in the end all the positions won were lost.

The reversal level of 11250.0 is still the key for the "bears". Its breakdown will give the prospect of further decline to the lower limit of the Murray trading range in the area of 10000 ([0/8]). When the level of 11875 ([3/8]) and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands break out (12090), quotes will be able to continue growing within the central Murray channel to the level of 13125 ([5/8]).

https://i.ibb.co/VY1Q113/nq.png

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, the Stochastic is directed upwards. 

Resistance levels: 12090, 12500, 13125 | Support levels: 11250, 10625, 10000

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AUD USD - The pair may fall

If the assumption is correct, the AUD USD pair will fall to the levels of 0.6446–0.6082. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7067.

https://i.ibb.co/XbN61wk/audusd.png

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GBPUSD - UK inflation hits 40-year high
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics against the US currency, consolidating near the level of 1.2260. The day before, GBP/USD also closed with a minimal deviation from the opening levels of the daily session.

Investors are evaluating macroeconomic data from the Office for National Statistics, released yesterday, which reflected an increase in consumer price growth in May: the figure reached 9.1%, which is a record since 1982. The negative dynamics is due to the rapid increase in tariffs for electricity and raw materials in general, which have set a high since 1985, adding 22.1% to the cost against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the monthly inflation rate slowed down from 2.5% to 0.7%, and the Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.2% to 5.9%, which turned out to be even slightly better than market forecasts of a reduction to 6.0%. In turn, the Retail Price Index in May showed an increase of 11.7%, accelerating from 11.1%, while the forecasts suggested an increase of only up to 11.4%; on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down from 3.4% to 0.7%, while the market expected a decline to 0.5%. At the same time, according to officials of the Bank of England, consumer price growth may reach 11% by October, exacerbating the crisis in the cost of living for British families. An increase in the interest rate for the fifth time in a row to 1.25% has not yet had the desired effect on the economy, only increasing the risks of a recession. In turn, inflation, taking into account the costs of homeowners for housing maintenance, increased to 7.9% from 7.8% a month earlier.

https://i.ibb.co/GP6rfmR/gbpusd.png

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on business activity from S&P Global for June. Forecasts suggest that Manufacturing PMI will show a decrease from 54.6 to 53.7 points.

Resistance levels: 1.2328, 1.2400, 1.2457, 1.25 | Support levels: 1.2250, 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2

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https://i.ibb.co/rkMZX2L/6.png

USD TRY - The lira consolidates near record lows
Experts believe that the rapid weakening of the lira is the result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's intervention in monetary policy, who insists on lowering interest rates even in the face of rapid inflation, which reached 73.5% in May. So, at the end of 2021, the rate was corrected from 19% to 14%, and, according to the country's leader, this policy will continue soon. It is a powerful driver of the decline of the national currency, the rate of which at the beginning of the week reached the December minimum around 17.3600. Today, the Central Bank of Turkey will announce a decision on the weekly repo auction rate, which has not changed since December 2021. The prospects for monetary policy remain uncertain: it is obvious that a sharp increase in the interest rate should not be expected, while the current measures to combat rising inflation are not enough. Also, rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves are putting pressure on the authorities: last week, they adjusted by 1B dollars and now stand at 7B dollars, forcing the authorities to swap with Saudi Arabia.

https://i.ibb.co/qxv3Xmg/usdtry.png

Yesterday, at the opening of the daytime session, the US dollar showed an active decline but then quickly regained all lost ground with the support of the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the national Congress, which confirmed the regulator's commitment to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. At the same time, the official did not touch upon the topic of a possible economic recession, which still serves as a strong deterrent for the national currency.

Resistance levels: 17.4, 17.6, 17.75 | Support levels: 17.1, 17, 16.75, 16.6

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Nikkei 225 - technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 26581.0, there is the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which signals the continuation of the downtrend. Following the quotes, the successive Gravestone Doji patterns formed, which usually appear at the top and are a signal for a price reversal. In the current situation, it is likely that the asset will decline to the support level of 25796, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to reduce the price to the range of 24575–23596. An alternative scenario is possible in case of an impulsive movement of quotes above the resistance level of 26865.0. Then the "bulls" will be able to reverse the situation on the market and start an uptrend in the area of 28263 – 30008.

https://i.ibb.co/MS1jQbj/ni-1.png

D1
On the daily chart, there is a Bear Flag price pattern, the construction of which started from the resistance at 28263; however, after reaching the support level of 25796, the "bulls" regained part of the lost positions, reaching the area of 26581.0. However, a warning signal for a price reversal is the formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, which indicates that buyers have lost control over the market. In this situation, most likely, the quotes will continue to decline to the level of 25796, the overcoming of which will serve as a signal for a further downtrend to the level of 23596.

https://i.ibb.co/5LQQpD4/ni-2.png

Support levels: 25796, 24575, 23596 | Resistance levels: 26865, 28263, 30008

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