Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on March 22, 2021

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair was in a neutral state last Friday, closing the day almost at the opening level, this morning the market opened with a falling gap of 22 points, closed in the next half hour of trading. Conditions have been created in order for the price to move up to the embedded line of the rising price channel of the higher timeframe (110.37), but the Marlin oscillator is descending along a steep trajectory, which is more likely to prolong the price consolidation of the last five sessions. A reversal of the indicator and a breakout of the price to the upside is likely tomorrow on Tuesday.

The price, with the gap closing, returned to last week's consolidation range highlighted by the gray rectangle on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator did not leave its own range. With the dollar's strength, and the price going over the MACD line in the area of 109.35, it is likely that the price will move to the upside.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on March 24, 2021

AUD/USD
This morning, the Australian dollar reached its first target set at 0.7615, after losing 114 points yesterday. The main impulse was the New Zealand dollar, which declined by 150 points due to the introduction of budgetary measures to curb the growth of real estate prices.

On the daily chart, Marlin Oscillator's signal line began to slightly turn. This suggests that the correction can be either from the reached level of 0.7615 or from the lower target level of 0.7565 (low of February 2). Regardless, the downward trend has already started, so we will wait for the price at the levels of 0.7500 and 0.7375.

The price in the H4 chart is making an attempt to break through the support level of 0.7615, with the Marlin oscillator moving down. A consolidation below which will lead the quote to the 0.7565 mark. After that, we can expect a fair correction to eliminate the oscillator from the oversold zone.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 26, 2021

EUR/USD
In previous reviews, we counted on a correction based on erroneous information about Catholic Easter. The holiday was designated on March 26-29 in a number of economic calendars, while in reality it falls on April 2-5. The error in the calendars was corrected, and our inaccurate forecast, unfortunately, remained, for which we apologize.

Meanwhile, the euro successfully passed the 1.1800 target level (now this level has been updated to 1.1810) and has moved to the 1.1745 target level.

Now, either from the 1.1745 level, or from the current one, we expect a correction based on a more pronounced double convergence of price with the Marlin oscillator. The correction may still not be deep, limited from the top by the 1.1810 level, but it can continue in this range on Monday due to the lack of planned news.

A reversal of the Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal from the current levels on the H4 chart. The 1.1810 level, as you can see, corresponds to a slight consolidation on March 24th.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro slipped by 29 points yesterday, blocking Friday's gains, a sign of the price's sentiment to continue moving down against the pressure of the double convergence with the Marlin oscillator.

But the question of yesterday's event has not yet been resolved - will the price stop in the struggle against convergence at the 1.1745 level, or will it continue to decline to the 1.1688-1.1700 range? There is a third option - the collapse of convergence and the price falling even deeper (after all, double convergence has not yet been fully formed), and there are fundamental prerequisites for this. Yesterday, investment ideas that have become traditional in the last month appeared in the media on the difference in the speed of recovery of the US and European economies.

The Marlin oscillator approached the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart and is most likely to turn down from it. The oscillator's exit into the zone of positive values in this short-term situation does not carry a high level of information, it may also be a reaction to the way that the price will continue to consolidate sideways or on either side, not above the MACD line, which coincides with the target level of 1.1810.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the price of the lower shadow of the daily candle almost reached the upper border of the target range of 1.1688-1.1700. The upper limit can still be taken, the October 19, 2021 low at 1.1703, then the range will correspond to the extremes of October 15-19, and in this case it will be reached with an accuracy of point (1.1704).

Today's US report on the ISM manufacturing PMI for March is expected to grow from 60.8 to 61.3, weekly applications for unemployment benefits are expected to decline from 684,000 to 680,000, and tomorrow the unemployment data will be released, in which new jobs in the non-agricultural sector are expected to reach 647,000(!) against 379,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 6.2% to 6.0%.

All these circumstances make us think that the development of the Marlin oscillator in its own triangle will follow the option with the lower output (dashed line on the chart), and the current double convergence will be abolished. The euro will aim for 1.1560, the area of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

The convergence flared up and went out on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator, after entering the growth area, found itself in negative territory again. The price may stay in the range of 1.1700/4-1.1745 for some time, but tonight or tomorrow it will go down, especially since the market will be thin due to the Catholic Easter holidays.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 5, 2021

EUR/USD

A strong US employment report came out last Friday: 916,000 new jobs were created in March, the revision for February and January added another 156,000, the unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.0%, while the share of the labor force increased from 61.4% to 61.5%. Another similar release, and ideas for an earlier rate hike may resurface. Perhaps this is what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve. Moreover, we suspect that the labor report was regarded, because the Nonfarm is traditionally a manipulative tool, and the most radical forecasts were waiting for an increase above 2 million. But later on it will be clear how the government has seriously taken the improvement.

However, due to the Easter holidays, the dollar was not redeemed intensively, and today Europe is also resting. The index of business activity in the US services sector according to the ISM for March is expected to grow from 55.3 to 58.5. New data can still push the euro down deeper, to the range of 1.1688-1.1700.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses from the upper boundary of its own wedge. As a result, we are waiting for the oscillator to go deep down. We are waiting for the price to reach the target level of 1.1560 - the approximate level of the January 2019 high and the November 2017 low.

The price turns down from the MACD indicator line on the four-hour scale. If the price moves below the nearest target level of 1.1745, the target range is 1.1688-1.1700.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on April 7, 2021

GBP/USD
The British pound did not follow the euro, the general weakening of the dollar, but turned downward from the area where the MACD indicator line coincided with the 38.2% correction level. The Marlin oscillator also turned down from the zero line. This simultaneous reversal of the price and the oscillator creates a strong downward signal. The target of this decline is the 1.3625 level.

The price has settled below the signal-target level of 1.3845 on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone, the price is visually preparing to overcome the support of the MACD line, which coincides with yesterday's low at 1.3801.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.

Black lines - Fibonacci support levels
Blue line - short-term support trend line

XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 13, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The GBP/USD pair bounce has been capped at 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.3763. The market reversed as the Bearish Engulfing pattern was made. The market conditions are still quite oversold, so if the level of 1.3763 is violated, then the bulls might extend the bounce towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down located at 1.3792. Please notice, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are still in control of the market and all the bounces are so far the counter-trend corrective in nature.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.4080
WR2 - 1.4000
WR1 - 1.3827
Weekly Pivot - 1.3750
WS1 - 1.3579
WS2 - 1.3494
WS3 - 1.3340

Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and bulls are back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 15, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro's growth from yesterday, since the dollar weakened, correlated with the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the economic club in Washington, where he spoke about the practice of reducing purchases of government bonds before raising rates. But the euro showed most of yesterday's growth even before Powell's speech, and his thesis itself did not make it clear exactly when the Fed would start to reduce its balance sheet.

Yields on government bonds slightly grew: from 0.84% to 0.86% for 5-year bonds, from 1.62% to 1.63% for 10-year bonds. Perhaps there was a correction in bond yields, which caused the euro to strengthen in recent days. There is still no strict correlation between the dynamics of the euro and yields, the growth was caused, rather, by the loss of investment interest in the dollar, because the euro's growth in April took place at the lowest volumes over the past 12 months. Investment growth against the dollar will increase in the new cycle of attracting capital under the "Biden plan" and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation. The placement of bonds under the Biden plan will begin next week (announcements of the auctions have not yet been published).

On the daily chart, the price reached a strong resistance - the coincidence of the 1.1990 level and the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has outlined a reversal, albeit not from the overbought zone, but with a fairly high value. A correction from current prices can be expected.

A price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed on the four-hour chart. If the euro continues to grow in the medium term, then we expect a correction to the MACD line in the 1.1990 area. If the euro turns into a new medium-term decline, then the price should settle below this MACD line.

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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Last Friday, the euro hit the resistance level of 1.1990 at the point where it coincides with the MACD indicator line on the daily chart and is declining this morning, reaching Friday's low. The Marlin oscillator is turning down. Perhaps this is a reversal to the 1.1810 target and to subsequent, lower target levels.

The technical complexity of the current moment on the H4 chart; the gap remains open and the divergence with the oscillator risks becoming double, and the double divergence will create a cross with an undefined target. You can even allow 1.2023 - the low on February 17.

But Marlin is still in the negative zone, so it may continue to fall, and the closing of the gap will be postponed indefinitely. But the price needs to settle below the MACD line for such a scenario, below 1.1930. In this case, the 1.1810 target will become relevant.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 21, 2021

EUR/USD The euro traded in a 60-point range yesterday, closing the day at the opening level. The price settled above the 50.0% Fibonacci level (daily). Now the price is ready to continue rising to the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.2105. Consolidating above it will entail another wave of growth to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2200. The trend breakdown will occur after the price settles below the MACD line, which is now just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

At the moment, there is no reversal situation on the four-hour chart. The growth is confident and rhythmic.

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