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NZD/USD: wave analysis
The pair is in a correction and may grow.
On the daily chart, the upward wave (А) of B develops as a momentum, within which the wave 5 of (A) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave iv of 5. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7177–0.7350. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6951.
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction formed as the wave (4). Now, the development of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, and the wave ii of 1 is ending. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1965.33–2013.38. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1762.36.
Brent Crude Oil: prices are recovering
Current trend
Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are showing upward dynamics, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of $50 per barrel. The instrument dropped slightly at the end of the last trading week, however, it was caused by technical factors.
The quotes are strongly supported by optimism regarding vaccines against COVID-19. Last weekend, it became known that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) noted the advantage of the vaccine from Pfizer and approved its use for the population over 16 years old. A vaccination campaign is expected to start soon in the US, which will strengthen the market's confidence that the next year can be survived without new lockdowns.
Meanwhile, Baker Hughes' report on active oil platforms in the US, released on Friday, again reflected a solid increase from 246 to 258 units.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range is expanding from above but not as fast as the “bullish” dynamics develop. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, without reaching the overbought area, reversed into a horizontal plane near the level of 80, indicating the ambiguous nature of the last days' trading.
The current readings of technical indicators do not contradict the further development of upward dynamics.
Resistance levels: 51.07, 52.00, 53.00.
Support levels: 50.00, 49.07, 48.40, 47.50.
XAG/USD: wave analysis
The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave 2 of (3). Now, the wave c of 2 is forming, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level (iv) of c, and the development of the wave (v) of c has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 21.54–20.52. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 24.84.
EUR/USD: euro is near record highs
Current trend
Today during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, gradually returning to the previous record highs around 1.2174.
USD weakens amid optimism about COVID-19 vaccinations, actively starting around the world. The process may begin in the US soon, as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved the use of Pfizer and BioNTech vaccines. Yesterday, it became known that the FDA is preparing to publish the results of the third phase of clinical trials of the vaccine from Moderna, which can also be interpreted as the first step towards its approval for emergency use in the country. Meanwhile, the epidemiological situation in the US remains difficult. Earlier, the mayor of New York expressed the idea of returning the city to a full-fledged quarantine in response to a sharp increase in the case number.
On Wednesday, European investors are focused on the block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity in Germany and the EU. Analysts predict the data to be poor, so there is no expectation of noticeable growth in the single currency.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands actively grow. The price range narrows, indicating the emergence of flat dynamics in the short term. MACD grows but keeps a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic grows but rapidly approaches its highs, indicating that EUR may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2243, 1.2270, 1.2300.
Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2087, 1.2039, 1.2000.
USD/CAD: wave analysis
The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.
On the 4-hour chart, a correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), and the downward wave (3) forms, within which the wave 1 of (3) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave iv of 1. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2600–1.2500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2881.
WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the formation of the upward wave C started, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 65.50–76.30. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 43.50.
EUR/USD: wave analysis
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which the wave v of 1 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v of 1 has developed, and a local correction is forming as the wave (iv) of v of 1. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2340–1.2400. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2069.
USD/CAD: wave analysis
The pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level (C) of 4 develops, within which the fifth wave 5 of (C) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is developing, within which the local correction (iv) of iii is ending. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2600–1.2500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3179.
XAG/USD: silver rises again
Current trend
Silver contract prices began to recover again, trading at $25.7 an ounce.
In December, world prices for precious metals are quite stable and fully reflect the behavior of investors in the markets. In this regard, it is quite convenient to track the future possible movement of an asset by comparing it with the quotes of the VIX volatility index.
Historically, as the VIX rises, tensions rise in the markets, and investors start to actively move into the assets of the metal group, using them as shelter assets. The VIX has been declining since last Friday but yesterday, there was a major reversal, and the index rose sharply from 22.37 points to the current level of 23.31 points. Accordingly, soon, the strengthening of silver quotes is expected, especially since the long weekend is coming.
Support and resistance
On the local chart of the asset, the price moves within the local ascending channel. Inside it, the instrument has reached the support line and is forming a reversal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the sell zone but very close to the transition level.
Resistance levels: 26.10, 27.40.
Support levels: 25.10, 23.60.
EUR/USD: wave analysis
The pair is in a correction and may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the wave iv of 1, and the fifth wave v of 1 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2340–1.2400. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2074.
WTI Crude Oil: the price is consolidating
Current trend
The price of WTI crude oil is trading sideways, being at the level of 47.82.
Oil quotes are traded with increased volatility. The external information background has a significant impact on the choice of investors. Thus, the situation with the beginning of vaccination in many countries is undoubtedly a positive factor for the asset. However, the greatest expectations are associated with the OPEC+ meeting, which will be held on January 4. The cartel members plan to consider the possibility of increasing quotas for oil production by 500K barrels per day.
The past week has confirmed the increased interest in contracts from investors. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the number of net speculative positions in crude oil for the first time since August reached 525.7K, which exceeds the 514.6K shown a week earlier.
Support and resistance
On the local chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within the upward channel and is currently consolidating near the key level of 48.00. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty. The fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator have crossed with the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 49.00, 53.00.
Support levels: 46.00, 42.50.
AUD/USD: wave analysis
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) formed, and a local correction developed as the second wave 2 of (1). Now, the third wave 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed, and a correction has ended as the wave iv of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7800–0.8100. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7458.
WTI Crude Oil: waiting for new drivers
Current trend
Today during the Asian session, oil prices move flat, trading near $48 per barrel.
The price is moderately supported by the approval of new stimuli for the American economy by US President Donald Trump. They involve direct payments to citizens of $600. Earlier, Trump tried to insist on increasing this amount to $2,000, which was approved in the House of Representatives but the Senate majority blocked the initiative, deciding to put the issue in a separate bill.
Yesterday, quotes were significantly supported by the US EIA report, which reflected a sharp decline in oil reserves for the week of December 25 by 6.1 million barrels after falling by 0.56 million barrels previously. Analysts expected further decrease but hoped for a fall of only 2.58 million barrels. However, the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will be held on January 4, remains a “bearish” factor. It is expected that the cartel will decide to increase oil production by 500K barrels per day.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands grow moderately. The price range narrows from below, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic grows slightly, approaching the level of 80 and limiting the development of “bullish” sentiment in the ultra-short term.
It is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clear.
Resistance levels: 48.52, 48.81, 49.23.
Support levels: 48.00, 47.50, 47.00, 46.13.
BTC/USD: technical analysis
Current trend
Since mid-December, the BTC/USD pair has been moving in an uptrend, constantly renewing historical highs.
Over the past week, the price added over 34% and rose above 34700.00. The asset remains popular with investors due to a difficult global economic situation and deterioration in relations between the United States and China, caused by the delisting of several Chinese companies from the New York Stock Exchange. Experts note that relations between the first two world economies are unlikely to significantly improve under the new American President Joe Biden, and therefore digital assets will remain attractive.
Currently, quotes have slowed down, trading at 34375.00 (Murrey [7/8]), a breakout of which allows further growth to the levels of 37400.00 (Murrey [8/8]) and 40,000.00. The key “bearish” level is 31250.00 (Murrey [6/8]). If the price consolidates below it, a decline to the levels of 28125.00 (Murrey [5/8]) and 25000.00 (Murrey [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) may follow. Technical indicators point to continued growth. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. The MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought zone moving horizontally.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 34375.00, 37400.00, 40000.00.
Support levels: 31250.00, 28125.00, 25000.00.
Brent Crude Oil: waiting for OPEC decision
Current trend
Today, during the Asian session, oil prices grow slightly, testing the level of 51.00 for a breakout.
Yesterday, quotes decreased steadily, responding to the complication of the epidemiological situation in Europe, which correlates poorly with the market's plans to gradually increase energy demand. Also, investors fear that OPEC+ will decide to start a gradual increase in oil production. However, yesterday's meeting of the cartel did not lead to any specific decision, and it was decided to continue negotiations on January 5. Most of the OPEC+ countries are in favor of maintaining the current restrictions on production, while the UAE and Russia believe that oil production should be gradually increased.
On Tuesday, investors await the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of January 1. The previous report showed a steady decline in inventories by 4.875 million barrels.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls but is rapidly approaching the lows, signaling that the instrument may become oversold in the super short term.
It is better to keep the current short positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.
Resistance levels: 51.07, 52.00, 52.65, 53.26.
Support levels: 50.00, 49.07, 48.40, 47.50.
XAG/USD: the prices are consolidated
Current trend
Silver prices are showing a moderate decline on Wednesday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument is still supported by the weak USD, which is waiting for new drivers at the market. US investors are watching Georgia's second round of Senate elections. If at least one Republican candidate wins, the Senate will remain with Mitch McConnell, which will allow Republicans to block the controversial initiatives of Democrat Joe Biden in the next two years. If both positions go to the Democrats, then the final word will remain with US Vice President Kamala Harris.
In turn, the demand for silver is supported against the background of a worsening epidemiological situation in Europe, which threatens with new restrictions. The UK has recently decided on a third full quarantine, since for several weeks the incidence statistics have been setting new records. The speed with which a new strain of coronavirus is being detected in countries around the world is also worrying.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps an upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects the overbought silver in the ultra-short term.
Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.
Resistance levels: 27.65, 28.00, 28.50.
Support levels: 27.14, 26.74, 26.27, 25.97.
XAU/USD: gold quotes are correcting
Current trend
Gold quotes are consolidating around 1919.00.
As expected by most experts, the price of the precious metal has shown significant growth since the beginning of the year, and despite yesterday's decline, it remains fairly high. Undoubtedly, the strengthening of quotes is directly related to the situation around the coronavirus pandemic: the recent introduction of additional restrictions in a number of countries have pushed investors to avert risk and seek "safe havens".
However, the transition to gold was not that significant. Since mid-December, the precious metal has a new competitor, Bitcoin. It was cryptocurrency that some institutional investors began to consider as a more reliable means of fighting inflation. Bitcoin is growing, and not only preserves assets but also brings very high profitability, which makes some investors, who have always kept their funds in gold, to make a short-term choice in favor of cryptocurrency.
Support and resistance
Quotes, which left the global descending channel yesterday, attempted to test the resistance line, after which growth may continue. Technical indicators continue to show a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are higher than the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 1951.0, 2067.0
Support levels: 1886.0, 1774.0.
EUR/USD: EUR is corrected
Current trend
EUR is declining insignificantly against USD today, developing the "bearish" signal that formed the day before.
Noticeable pressure on EUR was exerted yesterday by macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which came out worse than expected. The volume of Retail Sales in November fell by 6.1% MoM after rising by 1.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but counted on a decrease by 3.4% MoM. On an annualized basis, sales fell by 2.9% YoY, while the forecasts were for an increase by 0.8% YoY. The data on consumer inflation were also negative. In December, the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3% YoY, repeating November dynamics. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.2% YoY.
Today, European investors are focused on the statistics on Industrial Production from Germany for November, as well as on the Unemployment Rate in the eurozone for the same period.
Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is trying to consolidate, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, signaling the presence of significant "bearish" potential in the ultra-short term.
Existing short positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up.
Resistance levels: 1.2271, 1.2309, 1.2348, 1.2400.
Support levels: 1.2234, 1.2200, 1.2150, 1.2087.
EUR/USD: wave analysis
The price may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) developed, within which the fifth wave v of 1 formed. Now, a downward correction is starting to develop as the second wave 2 of (3), within which the wave a of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.1976–1.1890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2352.
XAG/USD: wave analysis
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) formed, a downward correction developed as the wave 2 of (3), and the formation of the wave 3 of (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 3 has formed, and the local correction has ended as the wave ii of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 28.00–29.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 24.18.
AUD/USD: wave analysis
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the wave C of the higher level develops, within which the first wave (1) of C forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 has formed, the local correction iv of 3 has ended, and the fifth wave v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7900–0.8100. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7660.
EUR/USD: the pair declines again
Current trend
The EUR/USD pair declines, trading around the level of 1.2146.
Yesterday, the European currency strengthened against its main competitors after the publication of macroeconomic statistics. The volume of industrial production in the EU for November rose by 2.5% MoM against the expected growth of 0.2% and adjusted to –0.6% YoY against the background of forecasts of –3.3%. The volume of industrial production in Italy for the same period remained rather low and amounted to –4.2% YoY, which is still better than the forecast of –4.3%.
After a slight downward correction, the American currency returned to the upward dynamics, which determined the instrument's trend. Although the main news is the possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump, experts call the likelihood of this event almost zero since the Senate, most likely, will not take this responsibility.
Support and resistance
Locally, the price left the uptrend, breaking the support line. After a short correction, it is ready to go below the local minimum. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal. The fluctuation range of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2310.
Support levels: 1.2130, 1.2000.
Brent Crude Oil: wave analysis
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the upward wave C started to form, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 59.92–65.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 52.11.
WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the formation of the upward wave C started, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 60.00–65.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 46.89.
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