Highlight of the Day: Due to Geo Political Risk Spikes EUR and the Pound Remain in the Spot Light

Economic information is probably going to possess a comparatively muted impact on the majors through the day, with heightened geo-political risk to drive the EUR and also the GBP.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data discharged through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter aspect yet again, with key stats restricted to Gregorian calendar month business confidence figures out of Australia.

For the Aussie Dollar, October’s NAB Business Confidence Index stood at 4, easing by 2 points from September’s 6.
•    The business conditions index also fell by 2 points to +12, with business conditions holding well above the average, while business confidence sits below the average.
•    October’s decline was attributed to the employment component
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71701 to $0.71736 upon release of the figures before rising to $0.7180 at the time of writing, a gain of 0.10% for the session.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen was up 0.11% to ¥113.71 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up 0.21% to $0.6724, the Kiwi Dollar finding support in spite of the risk off sentiment across the broader market, with the Asian equity markets on the slide following the overnight losses in the U.S.
The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data consist of finalized October inflation figures out of Germany that are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR and November economic sentiment numbers out of Germany and the Eurozone, with influence hinged on the Italian Coalition government’s budget submission, which will remain the markets main area of focus.
The deadline is today and uncertainty has tanked the EUR over the last week, the EUR having fallen from $1.14 levels to $1.12 levels.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.13% to $1.233, with noise from Italy and Brussels the key driver for the EUR through the day.

For the Pound, it’s a busier day on the data front, with key stats scheduled for release this morning including September’s wage growth and unemployment rate and October’s claimant count figures.
While the numbers traditionally have a material influence on the Pound, we can expect a relatively muted response this time around, with focus remaining on Brexit through the day, the Pound joining the EUR on a slide, with market jitters over a Brexit no deal weighing.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.11% to $1.2863, with Brexit news the key driver through the day.
Across the Pond, there aren't any material  stats regular for unleash, that leaves Capitol Hill because the key driver, whereas market sentiment towards Brexit and therefore the Italian government may offer more support for the dollar through the day ought to the wires deliver additional dangerous news.
At the time of writing, the dollar Spot Index was up zero.05% to 97.586, with Capitol Hill and geo-political risk in Europe remaining focus through the day.

For the Loonie, with another quiet day on the economic calendar front, fossil oil can still offer direction, with OPEC’s monthly report regular for unleash within the early afternoon.
The Loonie was up zero.09% to C$1.3235 against the U.S dollar at the time of writing, with fossil oil costs the key driver through the day.
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Ahead of EZ CPI Today EUR/USD Moved off the Daily Highs While Brexit Continues to Weigh

EUR/USD was packed down all night over Brexit turmoil with UK ministers quitting their positions in protest to PM May's negotiated deal with the EU that successfully does not get together the UK's electorate's vote.

1. Technical Overview

The EUR/USD pair trades slightly up for the day, above the 38.2% retracement of its newest daily decline, with a gentle-positive tone in its 4 hours chart, as the price bounced rapidly after testing its 20 SMA, while technical indicators resumed their advances, maintaining their upward slopes in positive ground but under early highs. Furthermore, the pair remains below firmly bearish 100 and 200 SMA. The 50% retracement at 1.1355 is still in the way for a steeper improvement, while the bearish risk will enhance on a break below 1.1250, with scope then to retest the yearly low at 1.1215.
Support levels: 1.1280 1.1250 1.1215 
Resistance levels:  1.1355 1.1390 1.1425

2. Fundamental Overview

The financial world was once again all about the UK and Brexit. Macroeconomic numbers received little consideration and had still less effect on prices. The EUR/USD pair has spent the day trading a few pips either side of 1.1300 level, not capable to create a center of attention from investors. The pair was not yet influenced by some market talks recommending that Italian chief economic advisor, Claudio Borghi, indicated that it was the EU that used made-up numbers to judge Italy's budget and not the other way around, adding that if the League party gets a popular in the next elections, Italy will be the next exiting the EU. There were numerous macroeconomic releases in the US but with mixed results that left depositors clueless. There were some headlines indicating that China made an offer to the US to try to move forward in trade discussions, which helped high yielding assets bounce from daily lows.

US Retail Sales were up by 0.8% MoM in October, beating expectations of 0.5%, even though the September figure was downwardly revised to -0.1%. The core reading, named Retail Sales Control Group was up by 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%. Unemployment claims for the week ended November 9 were up to 216K vs. the 212K expected.  Also, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index beat expectations by printing 23.3, while the Philadelphia one disappointed with 12.9. This Friday, the EU will publish the final readings of October inflation, foreseen up 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY, while the US will release October Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

Key Highlights of Cardano’s ADA Technical Analysis

It’s an unhurried beginning for Cardano’s ADA early on, but should the extensive market hold onto early increase, a run at $0.06 levels could be on the cards.

Key Highlights
•    Cardano’s ADA dropped by 15.5% on Monday, following on from last week’s 19.1% slide, to end the day at $0.0527.
•    The day’s first most important confrontation level at $0.0638 was left unproven with a start of a day intraday high $0.06242.
•    A day long sell-off saw Cardano’s ADA slide through the day’s foremost support levels to an intraday low $0.05079 ahead of finding support at $0.0500.
•    The extended bearish movement was reaffirmed with a new move to and fro lo $0.05079, with Cardano’s ADA also continuing to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1305.

Price Support of Cardano’s ADA

Cardano’s ADA dropped by 15.5% on Monday, following on from a 19.1% slide from side to side last week, to end the day at $0.0527.
It was a predominantly bearish day at the begin of the week, with Cardano’s ADA following the extensive market in a mass sell-off, sliding from a start of a day intraday high $0.06424 to a late afternoon intraday low and new swing lo $0.05079 earlier than finding support.

The day long sell-off saw Cardano’s ADA fall through the day’s most important support levels with qualified ease, Cardano’s ADA not capable to break back from end to end the day’s third main support level at $0.0567 by the day’s end, support at $0.0500 avoiding heavier losses on the day.

A new move back and forth lo $0.05079 reaffirmed the comprehensive bearish trend formed at early May’s swing hi $0.38845, with Cardano’s ADA falling well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1305 and more prominently for the crypto bulls, the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $0.1798.

At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA was up 0.35% to $0.052883, a reasonably range jump start to the day seeing Cardano’s ADA rise to a start of a day morning high $0.05375 prior to easing back to a morning low $0.052, the moves through the early morning leaving the day’s main support and resistance levels untested.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $0.05375 to $0.0553 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $0.0598, with Cardano’s ADA lagging the broader market early on, supporting a possible catchup move should sentiment remain positive through the late morning, though we can expect plenty of resistance at $0.060 to pin Cardano’s ADA from more material gains.

Failure to maneuver through the morning high $0.05375 to $0.0553 might see Cardano’s ADA come back on the spot later within the day, with a pullback through the morning low $0.052 conveyance Monday’s swing lo $0.05079 and sub-$0.050 levels into play before any recovery, the day’s 1st major damage at $0.0482 possible to stop a additional material reversal within the event of a broad primarily based crypto sell-off later within the day.

Retail Sales Does Not Get Affected from Holiday Even, Increase in the Prices of Natural Gas, Economical Gasoline

I think Trump could cause the begin of a Santa Claus rally to save his management and enhance his re-election probability as early as December 1 if he hits a buy and sell deal with China at the G-20 summit in Argentina.

There are no major earning reports of major earning report as The U.S. financial market is closed for business on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. This is expected to go ahead to a low volume directionless trade in the Forex markets. The banks in Japan are also on holiday, adding more to hopes of light trading and well-below average volatility.

On the other hand, even with the holiday, one can’t get away the markets. At some time throughout this short break you will be thinking about Black Friday retail sales, rising natural gas prices, low-priced crude oil and gasoline and a possible Santa Claus rally.

Focus Will be on Retailers
Although U.S. trading will resume on Friday, number and volatility are likely to be limited a second day, which is distinctive at the start of the more than month-long holiday period. Tomorrow is also Black Friday, which is a very essential day for U.S. retailers. The name says it all. It’s called Black Friday because sales are often large sufficient to make a business profitable, or put a retailer “in the black” for the year.

Being “in the black” is very essential this year to U.S. retailers. Just ask Sears, which is on the brink of bankruptcy. We all saw what take placed in the U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. The Dow dropped over 500 points and turned negative for the year. Traders said one of the factors driving the blue chip average lower was an earnings miss by U.S. retailer objective.
Target shares fell 10.5 percent after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings for the preceding quarter. The company also posted lighter-than-estimate same-store sales, which is a key metric for retailers.

The Target news broadens transversely the U.S. Retail sector rather speedily sending the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) down 3.4 percent. Other retailers like Kohl’s, L Brands and Macy’s also fell 9.2 percent, 17.7 percent and 3.4 percent, correspondingly.
So if you’re looking for the next event that could make or break the stock market into the end of the year, watch the Black Friday sales results.

Record Cold Could Limit Retail Sales in the East
If you live in the northern U.S. particularly on the East Coast then your option will be to shop or stay indoors. If you choose to shop then you’ll be helping the economy. If you choose to stay at home then you’ll be enjoying the heat created by costly natural gas.

Heating costs are expected to increase sharply this winter because natural gas inventories are well below their one-year and five-year averages. Additionally, winter has arrived weeks earlier this year, putting supply issues at the forefront.

Will There Be a Santa Claus Rally in the Stock Market?
I have not eliminated a Santa Claus Rally in the stock market just yet. Given the results of the mid-term elections, President Trump’s endorsement numbers, the threat of accusation, the Mueller investigation and warnings about a recession, I think Trump could trigger the start of a Santa Claus rally to save his presidency and increase his re-election chances as early as December 1 if he hits a trade deal with China at the G-20 summit in Argentina.

Trade War Rhetoric and Brexit Chatter to maintain the USD and GBP in Action

Trump talks of more tariffs as the G20 Summit come up to, with Brexit chatter ongoing to pin the Pound back on probabilities of the deal being thrown out.

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data discharged through the Asian session this morning was restricted to October trade figures out of New Zealand.

For the Kiwi Dollar, there was more bad news following some mainly disappointing 3rd quarter retail sales figures released on Monday, with the trade shortage widening in October, year-on-year, from NZ$5,330m to NZ$5,790m, which is the highest annual trade deficit since October 2007.

According to NZ Stats:
•    Monthly introduces hit a record NZ$6.2bn in October, rising above September’s preceding record high NZ$5.9bn, the continued rise featured to higher prices for crude oil and a pullback in the Kiwi Dollar.

•    Import values for October were NZ$758 (14%) higher than in October 2017, with the increase spread across a range of commodities, through petroleum and producers were the main contributor, up NZ$257m (68%).

•    On the export front, total exports rose by NZ$303m (6.6%) in October to NZ$4.9bn compared with October 2017, with exports sitting at their highest level for any October month.

•    The increase in exports was attributed to fruit exports (NZ$204m) and kiwifruit exports in particular (NZ$112m).

•    The monthly trade insufficiency narrowed from NZ$1.596m to NZ$1.205m, which was inferior than a forecasted narrowing to an NZ$850m deficit.

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67734 to $0.67694 upon discharge of the figures before falling to $0.67761, marking a 0.13% loss for the session.

Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen stood at ¥113.43 against the U.S Dollar, a gain of 0.13% for the session, while the Aussie Dollar was down 0.03% to $0.7219, talk of Trump going at the forefront with the January 1st, 2019 tariffs a negative start to the day to weigh on risk appetite.

In the equity markets, the Hang Seng saw red early on, down 0.49%, while the rest of the majors held onto early gains, the Nikkei and CSI300 both up by 0.09%, while the ASX200 gained 0.36%, moderately reversing Monday’s slide, with the gains in the U.S and Europe providing little support ahead of the G20, as Trump lay’s down the fundamentals to trade talks with more tariff chatter at the start of the week.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR, economic data is limited to jobseeker numbers out of France that are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR through the day, with focus likely to remain on Italy and general outlook towards the economic outlook, which could cause the ECB to pause on its financial policy plans for next year should conditions go down further.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.03% to $1.1331, with geo-political risk and chatter on Italy the key drivers through the day.

For the Pound, it’s another quiet day on the data front, leaving the markets to continue to focus on Theresa May and her progress on home soil to convince MPs to shift on their current stance on the deal to drive through the Brexit deal in the announced 11th December parliamentary vote, the current vote count going heavily against Theresa May’s widely criticised deal.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down 0.14% at $1.2809, with Brexit news the key driver through the day.

Across the Pond, economic data released through the day incorporates September housing sector figures and November’s consumer self-assurance numbers.

While focus will likely stay behind on the consumer confidence numbers, which comes in the wake of the mid-term elections and a choppy period in the U.S equity markets, in housing sector number we will also anticipate some Dollar sensitivity, weaker house price development likely to consider on the Dollar.

On the policy front, FOMC members Bostic and George are planned to verbalize late in the day that could also manipulate, any continued increase in dovish FOMC members positively not supportive of a bullish Dollar.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.01% to 97.06, with today’s stats and any trade war chatter ahead of Friday and Saturday’s G20 Summit likely to be the key drivers through the day.

For the Loonie, another quiet day ahead, leaves the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and direction in crude oil prices in particular.
The Loonie was down 0.04% to C$1.3260 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing.

In Previous Three Days USD/JPY Hits Lowest Price Below 113.50

The USD/JPY pair recommenced its decline and breaks the 113.50 support in the Asian trading, as the USD bears recovered poise amid dovish remarks by the Fed Chair Powell while markets pay no attention to the risk-on action on the equities.

1. Technical Overview

The increasing momentum seen in the last few days continues easing according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, where signs are in frank retracement straight from overbought readings and now nearing their midlines. The 100 SMA in the mentioned chart lacks directional force a few pips under the current level, at around 113.35, providing an instantaneous short-term support, as a break below it will likely worsen the decline. The 200 SMA is also aimless at around 112.90, with bulls possibly giving up on a break below this last.

Support levels: 113.35 112.90 112.55

Resistance levels: 113.75 114.05 114.50

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
USD/JPY
S1      113.720                W       R3       115.870        S
S2      112.9000    M       R2        114.8800    M
S3      111.9100    S       R1         113.9600    W

Technical Analysis of Three Currency Pairs

EUR/USD
According to analysis, The EUR/USD fell close to 90 pips on Friday, counteracting the bullish view put ahead by the outside-day reversal. That bearish move has founded Thursday's high of 1.1402 as the level to beat for the bulls, that is, the rally from the Nov. 28 low of 1.1267 is seen resuming above 1.1402.
Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1352
    Today Daily change: 30 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.265%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1322

GBP/USD
GBP/USD Technical readings in the chart continue the risk twisted to the downward, as the pair is developing far under moving averages, while the RSI pointer resumed its decline, now gaining descending traction at around 42. The risk of a descending extension will add on a break below 1.2724, November 27th daily low.
Support levels: 1.2725 1.2690 1.2665
Resistance levels: 1.2770 1.2805 1.2840

USD/JPY
According to Technical Readings the USD/JPY pair pared back increases to close the bullish opening gap, now roundabout near 113.55 regions on distinguished US dollar supply, as the US-China trade break boosts the demand for the riskier currencies.
Support levels: 113.20 112.90 112.55
Resistance levels: 113.60 114.05 114.50
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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pairs

EUR USD

The EUR traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.1341

The positive momentum in high-yielding assets triggered by weekend news related to the trade war was faded throughout the day, with most major indexes closing in the red.
Need to monitor ECB president Draghi’s Speech and its impact on the prices of Eur.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.13005, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12572. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14000, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14586. Precious Day range was 99.5 and Current Day Range is 23.1

GBP USD

The GBP traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.2711, after the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by firms in the services sector throughout the country. According to the news, reading is above fifty which means service sector is expanding, but lower than expected forecast (53.3, 52.2) which is bearish for GBP.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2686, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2669. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.28122, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.29147.

GBP/USD previous Day range was 180.1 and Current Day Range is 40.1

USD JPY

The USD strengthened 0.22% against the JPY and closed at 112.771.
The Japanese Yen has benefitted this week from a surge in risk aversion which has seen USD/JPY retreat all the way back down to the dominant uptrend line.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.343, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.908. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.422, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.078.

Technical Overview of USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pairs

USD CAD

The USD traded a bit lower against the CAD and closed at 1.3319.

Today, 6:30, and at 12:45. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak in Istanbul, Turkey. He will have the opportunity to comment on the excellent jobs report published on Friday, which seems much better than the dovish tone of the BOC decision.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.32480, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.31774. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.33945, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.34701. Previous Day range was 146.8 and Current Day Range is 36.9.

AUD USD

The AUD traded bit higher against the USD and closed at 0.7201.

JOLTS characterizes the US labor market. Index growth may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.71852, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.71694. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.72281, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.72569.

AUD/USD previous Day range was 43.6 and Current Day Range is 44.9.

USD JPY

The USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 112.687.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q reflects the monetary value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given quarter compared to the previous one. The calculation takes into account private consumption, government spending, the costs of all enterprises and net exports of the country.
GDP growth can have a positive effect on yen quotes.

According to the analysis, USD/JPY pair is expected to find support at 112.517, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.350. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.887, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.090.

USD/JPY previous day range was 3700 and current day range is 4340.

Technical Overview of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pairs

EUR USD

The EUR traded a bit lower against the USD and closed at 1.1368.

Today ECB Deposit Rate Decision is announced after the European Central Bank meetings, on which the monetary policy of the euro zone is discussed. The regulator takes decisions on deposit rates depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.

EU Leaders Summit is a regular two-day meeting of EU leaders and senior officials. Press conferences and open meetings of participants are held during the event. Depending on the events discussed at the summit, as well as political and economic rhetoric of the participants, euro quotes may change for a short time.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.13266, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12856. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13974, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14268. Previous Day range was 70.5 and Current Day Range is 11.1.

GBP USD

The GBP traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.2624.

Retail Sales m/m reflects a change in the US retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator is calculated based on statistics received from 5,000 retail stores of different types and sizes, and the data are then extrapolated to the whole country.

The indicator is used for estimating inflation. Its growth may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.25102, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.23943. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27020, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.27797.

GBP/USD previous Day range was 191.2 and Current Day Range is 35.2.

USD CHF

The USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9933.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision is announced four times a year during SNB governing board meeting. The decision depends on the existing inflationary outlook and economic growth.
Interest rate growth can have a positive impact on CHF quotes.

According to the analysis, USD/CHF pair is expected to find support at 0.99084, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.98846. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99609, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99891.

USD/CHF previous day range was 52.3 and current day range is 20.2.

Technical Overview of USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pairs

USD CAD

The USD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 1.3394.

NAHB Housing Market Index is released by the National Association of Home Builders. It presents home sales and expected home buildings in the future indicating housing market trend in the United States. The growth rate of the housing market affects the USD volatility. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.33594, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.33248. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.34141, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.34353. Previous Day range was 55 and Current Day Range is 15.2.

AUD USD

The AUD traded lower against the USD and closed at 0.7173.

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.72395, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.71063. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.72167, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.72604.

AUD/USD previous Day range was 76.8 and Current Day Range is 13.

USD JPY

The USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 113.397.

The Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance is released by the Ministry of Finance and it's a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependent on exports. A high reading is positive for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to the analysis, USD/JPY pair is expected to find support at 113.182, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.969. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.635, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.881.

USD/JPY previous day range was 4550 and current day range is 1870.
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