EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 17, 2018

The euro major pair had a reduction triangle breakdown on Friday after the rise of global growth fears, resulting for traders to shift to equities to minimize risks. The pair is currently trading in the flat as investors are looking forward to FOMC as guidance.

Traders continue to draw bids, sending the euro major pair at as lower rate towards the latest low of 1.1215 if the global equities continue to be the solution amid the rising uncertainty of growth internationally. On Friday, weak economic data from China has awakened fears for a global economic slowdown and lessens investor’s appetite for riskier assets. People looking for safety has strengthened the US dollar as a safe-haven that increases the dollar by 1 and a half year high, inducing a strong selling of the EUR/USD pair. The common currency was further dampened by the weakened German and eurozone PMI in December, indicating a prominent slow down from both manufacturing and services. These data confirmed the dovish sentiment of ECB on Thursday and pushed traders to lessen expectation for next year’s rate hike. It further pushes the common currency to break through lower than 1.13. 

Yet, the mixed result from the US macro calendar resulted to a decline of both Industrial/Manufacturing production data and PMI despite the retail sales data, prompting sluggish business growth and reduces prospect for fed rate hike in 2019, limiting the euro decline and triggers a rebound from below and hover above 1.13 as market closed for the week. Meanwhile, the broad-based market for the dollar pushes the euro lower. It was able to trade flat during the Asian session starting the trading session for the week. Currently, the euro major pair is trading flat at 1.1307 with an apparent increase of 0.015 on the day. Meanwhile, the pair is showing a positive trend while the upside continues to be restricted by the FOMC update being the major event for the week, which will influence the future trading of the dollar.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2018

The euro major pair began with a lead over the dollar for this week due to various negative reasons such as high tensions with the US government tension concerning the White House and the Federal Reserve. Trading has been calmed during the Asian session amid the holiday season with the majority of the market are closed. Yet, bull traders are heedful given various factors such as geopolitical concerns and a sluggish economy that prompts investors to be careful with the thin market trading and European markets closed and internal crisis with the US.     

There is no expected macroeconomic data to influence trading even for just a short period of time that has also put a limit to liquidity in the market. The EUR/USD pair is presumed to resume its bullish trading in favor of the greenback across the trading hours. Meanwhile, investors are focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence data and new home sales data scheduled to be released on Thursday, followed by the German CPI data on Friday that may give short-term opportunities.

The pair continues to move higher for the week on a broad-based weaker dollar but may face a strong resistance that may be difficult to surpass because of lack of momentum in the market. Technical trading continues to move with not much changes since the beginning of the week.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2019

The euro major pair was successful to have a bullish breakout in a wider price range for the past three months. It was driven mainly by a dovish Fed meeting after an update in China-US trade deal which was being followed by almost everyone. During the American session, the long-term resistance was broken at 1.14985 giving a good momentum after a bullish breakout as the price ranges at 1.15 followed by consolidation at Asian hours. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes pushed the price for a breakout which then underwent a bearish bias before the release of the Fed minutes given the dovish rhetorics from various FOMC members.

Some of the committee members are supports the rate hike amid the continuous slowdown since December throughout the world market, as well as, the US economy. Moreover, this shows that the majority of the members monitors the market carefully, considering the sluggish pace of rate increase along with the investor’s expectations to pause the rate hike plans this year. On a long-term perspective, this engages major fund flow in the market as a safe-haven currency with a risk of a recession for short-term due to Fed plans of multiple rate hikes. This greatly impacted the USD bulls and foster risk appetite in the market.

Meanwhile, investors attention are now on the ECB’s most recent minutes of the meeting as they look forward to the economic slowdown in the European market or hints on the possibility of an early rate hike by the central bank in 2019. This could further strengthen the euro bulls to break higher than the 1.16 mark.

As for the fundamental reports, the initial jobless claims, new home sales data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated today from the US market that would likely bring short-term profit opportunities for retail traders.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 21, 2019

The euro major pair struggles amid the geopolitical and economic problems that resulted in calm price action. It broke the significant support level of 1.1364 on Friday. It drops as low as 1.1353 given the dovish pressure from the European market in euro for the week, despite the steady risk appetite. With euro affected by the political concerns, these events continue to bring in a bearish influence on Monday session that is anticipated to limit the upward potential in the European market. A number of European news, including Brexit deal negotiation, “Anti-EU Axis” of Italy, French yellow vest protest, have continuously affected the economic activity. At the same time, this hurts the investors’ risk appetite in the background of China-US trade war also puts a ceiling to the bullish possibilities of the pair.

The trade war between China and the US remains to be the main factor, influencing the long-term high-risk assets in the global market, as well as other news that gives rise to the higher risk in worsening the trade war while bearing in mind the issue on Intellectual property infringement to influence the long-term trend and suggests a higher possibility of a downward movement of short-term trades. On another hand, China’s GDP implies growth despite trade war that has slowed down the Chinese economy in less than 30 years, which in turn keeps steady the risk appetite in Asian markets. This boosted the rebound of the pair last week following a post minor consolidation at the beginning of the Asian market. However, there is not enough headlines to support the bulls, hence, limited its uptrend at 1.137 prior to the European hours.

On the economic calendar releases, it seems to be subdued for both currencies but expecting for the German PPI data that is presumed to drop compared to the previous reading of the European economic climate and largely impact the near-term trading of the common currency. Amid the careful sentiment of the global market with the prevalent risk appetite and lack of fundamental data for the euro, we can assume for the resumption of a bearish price movement of the pair in the future.

Dollar taking place as investors brace for volatile markets; Fed meeting

The euro edged the length of coarsely Monday as investors bought the dollar and prepared for volatile markets ahead of U.S.-China trade talks and a Federal Reserve policy decision.

Investors have focused in this area the subject of Wednesday's Fed meeting together in addition to policymakers are conventional to signal a discontinue in their tightening cycle and to declare you will growing risks to the U.S. economy.

That will likely weigh almost the greenback, which has fallen 1 percent since late December, after enjoying a boost from the Fed's four rate increases in 2018.

On Monday, however, the dollar was buoyed by safe-waterfront buying as traders anxiously await news from U.S.-China talks just about Tuesday and Wednesday to see if the world's largest economies can comply a compromise on the subject of trade.

"Unless there is psychiatry in negotiations, we suspect the cautiously risk swell setting can continue - which should favor higher-malleable below-valued emerging sustain currencies closely the dollar," said Chris Turner, head of foreign disagreement strategy at ING in London.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value linked together in the middle of six major peers was marginally merged at 95.896, after falling 0.8 percent harshly speaking Friday.

Conformity last week to reopen the U.S. supervision for now after a prolonged shutdown condensed fortune-hunter demand for the safety of the greenback.

"The general admin for the dollar is yet the length of and markets will be taking cues from the FOMC this week," said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

"The Fed will most likely save rates steady this year final the disclose of economic lump uncovered the U.S."

The dollar fell 0.1 percent the length of the offshore yuan to 6.7406. The rally in the yuan then fueled a bounce in the Australian dollar, which gained 0.18 percent versus the dollar to $0.7195.

Traders are bearish upon the dollar for 2019.

The euro was marginally weaker upon Monday at $1.14.

The single currency managed to cling upon to a 0.4 percent profit made last week despite the European Central Bank downgrading its ensue forecasts for the close term.

Growth data out of Europe's economic powerhouses such as Germany and France have been weaker-than-usual and analysts expect the ECB to remain dovish for a lengthy mature.

Traders concur Europe's slowdown and a dovish ECB are priced into the euro, which has traded in a $1.12-$1.16 range highly developed than the last three months.

Sterling drifted degrade upon Monday after posting its biggest weekly rise in greater than 15 months last week as investors consolidated positions in the back a series of votes in the British parliament upon Tuesday that will face to fracture a Brexit deadlock.

Analysts expect sterling to remain volatile. Britain is set to leave the European Union upon March 29, but the country's members of parliament remain in the distance from agreeing to a divorce unity.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 1, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the previous low during trading session amid high-risk appetite in the broad market which limited the decline to 1.14, which has been steady support across the week. News on trade deal being extended despite optimism on progress and major concerns taking straight on, in turn, these supported the dollar bulls. Another news is the possibility for two leaders of US and China are likely to meet this month with positive expectation on the trade deal, however, tariff imposition is also to be discussed if a deal wasn’t successful by March 1st.

Consequently, this shook the market as the trade talk between the EU and the US is scheduled next month to gain agreement from EU should the talk failed. The possibility of the US imposing tariffs on EU is giving a dovish tone for the common currency in the broad market. However, the EUR/USD is likely to decline in the coming month amid the dovish outlook for short and medium-term and lack of fundamental support to maintain the recent high of the euro.

The euro pair is presumed to resume its consolidation ahead of the Eurozone preliminary CPI data and German manufacturing PMI data. However, a negative result on the macro-European data would drive further decline of the pair. A positive outcome would shift the lead to the dollar bulls and opens the chance for a rally and set for consolidation in the intermediate support in the first week of February.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2019

The euro major pair had a steep drop during yesterday’s trading as the US dollar took the lead in the broad market for the fourth straight days. And yet, the pair was able to move downward with the recent price rally of the pair boosted by the weakened dollar in the market instead of the euro’s strengthening. This occurs in the background of bearish tone due to dovish Fed statements and mixed macro data in the US market. At the same time, the euro is struggling as investors stand heedful with concerns on the economic sluggish growth due to below expectations macroeconomic data in the eurozone. The successful breakout of the dollar was driven by good risk appetite in the broad market, as well as the not so good macro data results.

The macro data also restricted movement in the early American hours while there is an insufficient drive for the euro to maintain its growth with the recent highs. Added to the strengthening of the dollar, it supported a steady downward movement and exceeded multiple significant support levels during the Asian trading session. Continuing on, the pair dropped below 1.14 in the background of the thin market during the holidays and less volatility and trading volume that hindered the market for a breakthrough in the support area.

For today, investors are waiting for the release of macroeconomic data and resulted to a bearish breakout. On the European calendar, the pair remains subdued for the day except for the release of the German manufacturing orders. On the other end, there is the release of building permits, core retail sales,  core durable goods orders, and Preliminary GDP data qoq in the US. A positive outcome of these US macro data induces the pair to overcome the critical support level of 1.1390 that opens further decline of the pair towards the middle of 1.12. Yet, this would support the euro to gain higher than 1.14 given the negative US data but this may not be easy with the greenback growing steadfastly in the broad market for the fifth straight day.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2019

After four succeeding bearish trading, the euro major pair finally gained some momentum towards the end of the week. However, the euro bulls have limited the downward movement and close optimistically for the week. The week began with the US dollar taking the lead amid the thin trading during the holidays affecting market volatility, volume and risk appetite in the majority of the Asian session. Furthermore, below expectations released macro data in the euro zone escalated concerns in the market as investors worry on the tendency of a slowdown in the euro area economic activity amid the Brexit negotiations. In turn, these factors give a bearish sentiment to the common currency. At the same time, this supports the dollar’s attempt for a bearish breakout.

With its decline for a week, the release of macro data from the US hinders the dollar bulls to continue with its further decline. There is no enough momentum for recovery for the dollar bulls given the pessimistic unemployment data while the bulls are in a calm state in the broad market. Yet, the euro cannot take advantage of the upward momentum amid the lack of major economic data to support a price rally. Hence, this results in range-bound trading after intraday lows close to the middle of 1.35, which will likely persist throughout the day since there is minimal chance for a breakout with no fundamental data to support this.

Meanwhile, minor reports are anticipated to come out from the EU and the United States. The German trade balance data and preliminary French Q4 NFP data are anticipated to come out from eurozone while the  WASDE report and U.S. Baker Hughes oil rig count data are scheduled to be released from the US.

On a technical aspect, it seems that it lacks the strength to determine the direction as it stays close to recent lows.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 11, 2019

The euro is trading higher on Monday for a while prior to the opening of the US session, driven by the reaction of the market to oversold induced by a steep decline last week. The dovish signals from the ECB last week affect the long-term price movement, hence, we can conclude that the rally will not last for a long time.

It is likely that we are also looking for price parity after the results of a mixed US employment has come out. This implies that the US economy is presently weakening. However, after the recent stimulus program of the ECB, it may mean that the eurozone is on the weaker side of the two nations.

We can expect for low volatility after the release of the US sales report at 12.30 GMT especially if this turns out less than the forecast. The core retail sales report is anticipated to increase by 0.4% while retail sales are likely to come out flat.

According to the daily chart, the price trend is moving downward and if it reaches the level of 1.1176, the downtrend will likely continue. The initial target is the Gann angle at 1.1560 in consideration of the price action at the beginning with upward momentum. Overcoming this angle would mean the short-partaking is getting stronger and could lead to a rally towards the 50% level of 1.1298.

The short-range is presumed to be at 1.1420 and 1.1176 with the retracement zoner at 1.1298 and 1.1327 as the initial upward target. Meanwhile, sellers are likely to test the area given that the main trend is downward. However, if the current intraday fails to exceed today's’ intraday high of 1.1247, then we can assume the possibility of a short-term pullback to a short-term pivot of 1.1213.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2019

The euro major pair moved in a two-way price movement driven by investor sentiment because of headlines. There is high-risk appetite throughout the day which supported the euro to move in a positive price action early in the day. However, news of a delay in meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to sign a trade deal later this month to April which influenced the investor sentiment to be cautious in the late European market hours. In turn, the EUR/USD pair dropped slightly but attention is still focused on the UK parliament vote to extend the article 50 deadline and price in the majority of global traders.

Investors wait for the release of the macro data to get some hints on the trading session which is about to close for the week. On the fundamental reports, data on Italian CPI & HICP and Euro area CPI data from the EU calendar are expected while report on Industrial production data, JOLTs Job Openings, Michigan Consumer sentiment, and Michigan Consumer expectation from the US are scheduled to be published.

On the technical aspect, there is less resistance on the upper side of the channel if Brexit continued in front of the UK parliament and high-risk appetite in the broad market.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 26, 2019

The euro major pair began the week with optimism after a sharp drop on Friday. They managed to have positive results across the day and close with a slight upward movement at the end of the day. Events on both the EU and the US bond market had a big impact on the price activity. Meanwhile, the bond market induced a risk-averse reaction to the European and American markets. Yet, the positive macro data from Europe as well as a slight rebound in American bond that lessens the aversion of traders to risk in yesterday’s price movement.

The German macro data favored the euro to have gains. During the US session, it was apparent that there is a healthy risk appetite on trading activity. Thus, the euro closed on an optimistic note in the broad global market yesterday. Yet, the bond market still gives hints for a US recession, which also restricted the gains for euro yesterday.

During the Asian hours, the pair traded range-bound prior to the update of the EU macro data, which will confirm the positive signals. At the same time, the pair has a bearish pressure due to Brexit negotiation. In the meantime, traders are heedful and careful in placing major trades, although the positive fundamental macro data can drive momentum and short-term opportunities for direction.

Today, data on Building Permits, Housing starts, and CB consumer confidence are anticipated from the US and the release of GFK German Consumer Climate data are scheduled from the eurozone.