LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, it is seen that since February, the pair is trading within the central Murray channel 104.68–107.81 ([3/8]–[5/8]). Now the price is ready to test its upper border. In case of success, it can grow to the levels of 108.60 ([6/8], H4) and 109.37 ([6/8]). Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 106.25 ([4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4) can develop.
Technical indicators support the growth роста. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing upwards, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Worth noting, that the fundamental factors are playing the significant role in the market. Any tightening of the US-China trade conflict can cause a downwards correction despite the buy signals of the indicators.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 107.81 ([5/8]), 108.60 ([6/8], H4), 109.37 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 106.25 ([4/8]), 105.50 ([–2/8], H4), 104.68 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 107.81 with the targets at 108.60, 109.47 and stop loss near the level of 107.35.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 107.00 with the targets at 106.25, 105.50 and stop loss near the level of 107.40.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair made a slight attempt to correct after the publication of weak data on inflation in the Eurozone. In March, the basic consumer price index remained unchanged at 1.0% and the general consumer price index was below forecasts amounting to 1.3%.
However, EUR is playing out the positions, which is fueled by fears ща rising tensions in the US-China trade conflict. On Tuesday, it became known that Washington introduced a ban on the supply of American goods and technology to ZTE, the second largest Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment and mobile phones. This is a very sensitive blow for the company, which could lead to bankruptcy in the future. Currently, 25-30% of components in ZTE products are manufactured in the US, and mobile phones use Google’s Android OS. Probably, this decision of the US will have consequences: The PRC's Ministry of Commerce has already stated that it will defend the interests of Chinese companies, but specific response measures have not been announced so far.

Support and resistance

In the near future, the instrument can resume growth, seeking to return to the central Murray channel (1.2390-1.2512). This is evidenced by MACD histogram growing in the positive zone and Stochastic reversing upwards.
The level of 1.2329 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for the "bears". In case of its breakdown, the price may continue to decline to the area of 1.2207 (Murray [0/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands).
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2207.
Resistance levels: 1.2390, 1.2451, 1.2512.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.2390 with targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop-loss at 1.2350.
Short positions will become relevant if the instrument consolidates below 1.2329 with the target at 1.2207 and stop-loss at 1.2370.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors

Current trend

On Thursday, after a weak attempt for growth, the pair has been sharply adjusted and is currently trading at around 1.4038.
Investors were disappointed by the comments of the Bank of England's head Mark Carney, who noted that the increase in the interest rate depends on the final deal on Brexit. Carney also noted the weakness of recent data on retail sales and too rapid reduction of inflation. All this has caused investors to doubt that BoE will decide to raise the rate in May, although the probability persists.
Additional pressure on the pound was provided by EU representatives who rejected all proposals of the British party on the Irish border. The question on the border between Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, is now considered the most important in the negotiations. Both parties agree that the physical border should not exist here after Brexit, but they can not decide how to monitor the trade and movement of citizens.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4038 mark (Murray [3/8]) and, in its breakdown, may continue to decline to the levels of 1.3960-1.3916 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands, Murray [2/8]). This is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. After the breakout of 1.4100 mark (Murray [4/8], H4), the growth can continue to 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.4221 (Murray [5/8], H4) marks.
Support levels: 1.4038, 1.3960, 1.3916.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.4038 with targets at 1.3960, 1.3916 and stop-loss at 1.4080.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.4100 with targets at 1.4160, 1.4221 and stop-loss at 1.4070.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair tried to enter the upward correction. It is now trading around 1.3960. The pound is supported by a reduction in public sector borrowing. In March, the indicator was –0.262 billion pounds. Thus, Chancellor Hammond continues the policy of reducing government spending and borrowing, which began after the referendum on Brexit.
The investors are focused on Brexit negotiations. The main discussion goes within the British government and the Parliament, which is persuading Theresa May to let the UK stay in the Customs Union, while a number of key ministers, including David Davis and Boris Johnson, insists on the immediate leaving it. Today Brexit Minister Davis again claimed that after leaving Customs Union, UK will benefit a lot and can increase the country’s share in the world trade. He also noted that after the end of Brexit process, a number of bilateral trade agreements can be made with different counties, for example, with Canada.

Support and resistance

Technical picture is mixed. In case of the breakdown of the level of 1.3916 (Murray [2/8]), the price can fall to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.3671 (Murray [0/8]), which is confirmed by MACD, ready to enter the negative zone, and Bollinger Bands, reversing downwards. However, Stochastic is reversing in the oversold area, so a correction can develop to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the area of 1.4090 or 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4090, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.4000 with the targets at 1.4090 and 1.4160 and stop loss near the level of 1.3960.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3950.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week, oil prices were trading within the range of 74.21–72.65 (Murray [7/8]–[5/8]).
US Administration is giving controversial signals. At the end of the last week, in his Twitter, Donald Trump claimed, that the US would not accept artificially overpriced oil, which has led to the correction. However, this week American President claimed that he was intended to terminate the nuclear deal with Iran and imply new sanction against the third largest OPEC exporter. The execution of the plans will deprive the oil market of a great share of supply in a short term, which will support the prices. Iran is already having problems with sales. Companies would not make Iranian oil and petroleum products supply contracts, valid later than May, 12. The date is the deadline for the USA to make decisions on the new sanctions.
Macroeconomic background is negative. According to API, US oil resources grew by 1.099 million barrel this week, according to EIA – by 2.170 million barrel. As the prices consolidated above the level of 70 USD per barrel, US shale oil producers are increasing the production. Today, Baker Hughes Rig Count will be published. Last week the number was 820 units.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is pointed downwards. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. The price is expected to move within the sideways channel.
Support levels: 73.43, 72.65, 71.87.
Resistance levels: 74.21, 75.00, 75.78.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 73.43 with the targets at 72.65, 72.00 and stop loss 73.70.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 73.70 with the targets at 74.21, 75.00 and stop loss near the level of 73.40.

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI keeps growing, having entered the overbought zone. The Composite is trying to turn down, substantially diverging with the price dynamics.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is growing as well, having broken out its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7480.0 (local lows), 7435.0 (local lows), 7377.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7595.0 (June 2017 highs), 7645.0 (local highs), 7700.0 (December 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching a strong resistance near 7595.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7600.0 with targets at 7645.0, 7700.0 and stop-loss at 7570.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7480.0 with targets at 7435.0, 7377.0 and stop-loss at 7515.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair dropped to the area of the lower border of the main trading range to the level of 1.1962 ([0/8]), where it is still traded.
The American currency is affected by the number of contradicting factors. On the one hand, it is pressured by the results of the Fed meeting. The interest rate remained unchanged at the previous level of 1.75% while in the statement investors didn’t see any hints on an acceleration of the pace of its increases.  At the same time, it was noted that inflation is close to its target level of 2.0%, economic risks are balanced, and the current state of the economy assumes further rate hikes. On the other hand, the Dollar is supported by a start of negotiations between the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice Premier of China Liu He in Beijing. Direct negotiations between officials of their status give investors room for optimism, though experts warn not to expect immediate results.
Today the market is waiting for the publication of April data on the American labor market. Unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.1% to 4.0%, and the number of non-farm jobs to increase from 103K to 192K.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands diverge, confirming the downtrend, and MACD histogram grows in the negative zone, indicating that the decline may continue to 1.1900 and 1.1840 marks. However, one cannot exclude an upward correction to 1.2085 and 1.2146 marks.
Support levels: 1.1962, 1.1900, 1.1840.
Resistance levels: 1.2023, 1.2085, 1.2146.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 1.1950 mark with targets at 1.1900, 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.2000.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2023 with targets of 1.2085, 1.2146 and the stop-loss at 1.1980.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues to decline for the third consecutive week and today has reached its lowest level since December at 1.1870 mark.

EUR is crushed by weak data on GDP, inflation, and retail sales in the Eurozone. USD is supported by the expectation that the Fed will continue to raise the interest rate.
Today, the market is focused on the statements of American politicians. At the conference in Switzerland, the Fed head Jerome Powell noted that the market has already received a signal about intention to increase rates and should no longer be surprised at these actions. In the evening, President Trump should announce his decision on the Iranian nuclear deal. Experts believe that the US will withdraw from the agreement. Then, new sanctions may be introduced or the parties may try to conclude a new treaty. Other participants - France, Britain, and Iran - are strongly opposed to unilateral actions by the US, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the termination of the agreement would be a historical mistake. Breaking the deal could put pressure on USD and substantially support oil prices.

Support and resistance

The instrument tends to 1.1840 mark (Murray [-2/8]) and, in its breakdown, can continue the decline to 1.1780 (Murray [1/8], H4) and 1.1715 (Murray [8/8], W1) marks. With a reverse breakout of 1.1900 mark (Murray [-1/8]), an upward correction 1.1962 (Murray [0/8]) 1.2023 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [2/8]) marks is likely to develop.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1715.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 1.1840 with targets at 1.1780, 1.1715 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.1910 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2023 and the stop-loss at 1.1870.

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the instrument rebounded from the 0.7446 mark ([5/8]) and approaches the level of 0.7568 ([6/8]) near the midline of Bollinger Bands. It is seen as the key for "bulls", its breakout can lead to an increase to the area of 0.7690 ([7/8]) and 0.7812 ([8/8]) marks. Otherwise, the price may return to the May lows in the area of 0.7446 and fall below the level of 0.7324 ([4/8], the center of the trading range). Technical indicators generally allow growth: Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7446 ([5/8]), 0.7324 ([4/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7568 ([6/8]), 0.7690 ([7/8]), 0.7812 ([8/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened when consolidating above the 0.7568 mark and the midline of Bollinger Bands with targets of 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7520.
Short positions may be opened if the instrument is reversed in the area of 0.7568 from the 0.7510 mark with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the beginning of the month, the pair trades within the sideways channel 1.3610–1.3458 (Murray [6/8]–[1/8], Н4).
UK employment statistic was mixed. The unemployment level stays record low –4.2%. Average Earning Including Bonus has grown by 2.9% during the last 2 months, which has exceeded the inflation growth of the period (2.7%). On the other hand, the growth rate of Average Earnings Excluding Bonus decreased from 2.8% to 2.6%.
British economy is slowing after significant growth, which the Deputy Governor of the BoE Ben Broadbent confirmed in his interview for Daily Telegraph and due to the unclear situation about Brexit. Until the Summer EU Summit, UK must publish its plan of the relations with EU development during the transitional period. However, the British governing parties are not able to agree. On Tuesday, the Scottish Parliament rejected London Brexit low, as it restricts the rights of local parliamentarians.

Support and resistance

The price is tending to the lower border of the channel, but the fall is possible after consolidation below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [–2/8]), and the “bearish” targets will be at 1.3310 (the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3200. After the breakout of 1.3550 (Murray [–1/8]) the correction to the level of 1.3671 (Murray [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The indicators reflect the fall. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3671.
Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3310, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3310, 1.3200 and stop loss 1.3470.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3671 and stop loss around 1.3510.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, the pair was declining, and by now the price has fallen below the level of 1.3427 (Murray [2/8]).
The current week will be full of important statistics that will allow investors to assess whether the British economy is able to begin recovery or will it continue the slowdown, which was recently talked about by Ben Broadbent, the deputy head of the Bank of England. On Wednesday, April data on inflation will be published. It is expected that the consumer price index will continue to decline and will amount to 2.3%. If the forecast is confirmed, the regulator can further delay the decision to raise the interest rate; however, taking into account the recent growth in wages, the purchasing power of British households will increase. Retail sales index in February promises to grow from 1.1% to 1.4%, and GDP - from 1.2% to 1.3%.
Positive economic statistics may be offset by the Brexit negotiations. So far, the issues of the Irish border and membership in the customs union remain open and do not have a solution even within the ruling cabinet.

Support and resistance

Currently, the instrument is below 1.3427 mark and may continue to decline to levels of 1.3300 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3183 (Murray [0/8]). If the price consolidates above 1.3550 mark, growth may continue to 1.3680.
Technical indicators show decline: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointing down, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3550, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3385 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3183 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Long positions may be opened above 1.3550 mark with the target at 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday, weak inflation data had pressured the British currency. The consumer price index continued to decline for the third month in a row and in April amounted to 2.4%. The basic consumer price index fell more strongly than expected and amounted to 2.1%. The Office of National Statistics of Great Britain notes that the decrease in inflation could be more significant, but it was compensated by the increase in the cost of fuel, the price of which reached a maximum for 3.5 years. Rapid approximation of the inflation rate to the target (2.0%) removes the need to raise the interest rate from the Bank of England. Under the current conditions, many market participants are waiting for it not earlier than by autumn.
Today, the price reversed around 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and entered the correction due to positive April Retail Sales, which grew more than expected, and reached 1.6% MoM and 1.4% YoY. However, it is due to the sale of gasoline and Internet sales, as store sales remained the same.

Support and resistance

The key “bullish” level is 1.3427 (Murray [2/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). The breakout will let the price grow to 1.3488 (Murray [5/6]) and 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the price can return to 1.3305 (Murray [2/8]) and fall to 1.3244 (Murray [1/8]). Technical indicators reflect the increase. Stochastic is directed upwards, MACD decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305, 1.3244.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the targets at 1.3305, 1.3244, and stop loss 1.3400.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3550 and stop loss 1.3400.
Implementation period: 5–7 days.