LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today WTI oil prices reached the level of 63.77 due to the coincidence of short-termed positive factors. EIA and API Crude Oil Stocks change releases reflected the eighth in a row decrease of resources in the USA, which has exceeded the expectations and reached 4.948 million barrel. The production decreased by 2.9% (2900K barrel) to 9.492 million barrel per day. The oil rig number went down, too: from 747 to 742.

The rapid growth of oil prices in the middle term can lead to the opposite effect of a revitalization of US shale oil producers, as it is becoming more and more profitable, which can result in a significant correction of the price. According to EIA forecasts, this year US production can reach a record level of 10.3 million barrel, and in 2019 – 11 million barrel. OPEC members recognize the danger of the high oil prices: recently Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh noted the disadvantages of the Brent price growth above 60 USD per barrel; still, any countermeasures are unlikely due to OPEC+ Agreement implementation.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is tending to the Murray resistance at to the area of 64.00 ([+2/8]) and after the breakout can grow to the levels of 65.00, 65.60. Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 61.72 (Murray [7/8]) is possible.
Technical indicators allow the growth, Stochastic is pointed upwards but is reaching the overbought area, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards.
Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.60.
Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 64.00 with the targets at 65.00, 65.60 and stop loss at 63.50.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 63.28 with the targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop loss at 63.70.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: Euro is growing

Current trend

Last week European currency strengthened against the dollar and by now, it has reached the level of 1.2245.
Three factors have supported the growth of EUR. Firstly, China has reported the suspension of US government bonds purchase, which was not confirmed afterward. The second factor was the recent ECB meeting reports release, which contained hints of monetary tightening. The third one is the agreement between CDU and SPD to begin the negotiations upon the creation of wide party coalition, which will help to solve German government crisis.

As a result, the market did almost not reacted to the positive December US Consumer Price release. The MoM index grew from 0.1% to 0.3%, the YoY one– from 1.7% to 1.8% due to the growth of housing prices. The data give the investors hope if increasing the interest rate during March FRS meeting, despite the fact that inflation has not reached the inflation level of 2.0% yet. Meanwhile, FRS plans to abandon this target level at all. The head of Boston FRB Rosengren has proposed to determine the inflation target within the range of 1.5–3% and choose the optimal level annually.

Support and resistance

The price grew above the central Murray ([4/8]) level around 1.2200. The targets are 1.2330 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]). Correction to the levels of 1.2085 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1963 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) will become possible after the price is set below 1.2200. The indicators reflect the development of growth, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is pointed upwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2570.
Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1963.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.2330, 1.2450 and stop loss at 1.2240.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2200 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.1963 and stop loss at 1.2250.

LiteForex: USD/JPY: upward correction may occur

Current trend

This week, the pair continues to decline and today has reached its lowest level since last September at around 110.17.
The yen is still supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the volume of purchases of long-term government bonds (from 200 to 190 billion yen for 10-25-year-olds, and from 100 to 90 billion yen for 25-40-year-olds). Investors see this as a signal for the beginning of tightening of monetary policy by the regulator. Statements by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda that incentive programs will be preserved until the inflation reaches the target of 2.0%, made this week, did not greatly weaken the yen. Most market participants believe that during the year the Japanese regulator will have to go on limiting incentives to prevent excessive loosening of the national currency due to the expected continuation of the Fed's interest rate increase and the possible tightening of the monetary policy by the ECB.
Currently, the decline has stopped, as the market is waiting for the publication of data on industrial production in the US. Realization of forecasts - in December the index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% - may push the pair to correction.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is in the area of 111.50 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey [1/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of further decline to the levels of 109.37 (Murrey [0/8]) and 108.60 (Murrey [-1/8]). However, the location of Stochastic in the oversold zone indicates a possible correction to the level of 111.72 (Murrey [3/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [4/8], the middle Bollinger band line).
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.60.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

In the current situation, one can buy above the level of 110.93 with the target at 111.72 and the stop-loss at 110.50. One can sell below the level of 110.15 with the targets at 109.37, 108.60 and stop-loss at 110.60.

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth slowed

Current trend

This week the pair was growing, and by the end of the week it has renewed the 3-year highs around 1.3943, gained 1.6%.
Today the growth slowed, as the instrument is under influence of two opposing factors. On the one hand, the dollar is under pressure of the crisis upon the federal government funding, which expires on December 19. The House of Representatives approved the prolongation law on Thursday, however, the democratic part of the Senate promises to block it. In this case, a number of government structures will suspend its work, and around 800K of the employers will have to set a vacation.
On the other hand, the pound cannot grow further due to poor UK Retail Sales release. In December, the index decreased by 1.5% and Retail Sales ex-Fuel – by 1.6%. The analysts consider the fall is because the peak of buyers’ activity coincided with the November sales season. In addition, high inflation level affects the Retail Sales negatively, as it has fallen from its high of 3.1% to 3.0% only in December. The member of Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Michael Saunders has mentioned the long-term negative influence of the high inflation to the UK economy.

Support and resistance

The price reached the resistance zone of 1.3915–1.3965 (Murray [6/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%). After the rebound the growth to the levels of 1.4040 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area and the possible exit of it reflects the risk of the downward correction to the levels of 1.3672 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3550 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.3965, 1.4038, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3794, 1.3672, 1.3550.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3793 with the targets at 1.3672, 1.3550 and stop loss at 1.3830.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3965 with the targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3940.

LiteForex: XAG/USD: correction is over, growth is expected

Current trend

The price of silver went into a narrowing consolidation after a significant growth at the end of last year.
In mid-January, the instrument reached the local maximum level of 17.40, after which it consolidated below this mark in the side channel. Growth was promoted by the increased demand for metal and a significant drop in the US currency at the end of last year/beginning of this year. At the end of the last trading week, the United States published mixed data, which resulted in a reduction in US dollar sales and stabilization of the rate.
Now, there are no important releases that could increase the volatility of the price of silver in the economic calendar. In the second half of the week, special attention should be paid to the US data, namely reports on the labor market, on economic growth rates in the 4th quarter of last year, and on orders for durable goods.

Support and resistance

The current consolidation from the strong resistance level can be regarded as a correction after significant growth. In the future, the correction will be replaced by a new upward wave, the main catalyst for further growth will be the negative fundamental background for the United States and the "bullish" trading sentiments of investors. In the medium term, the instrument is expected to rise to the next strong resistance level of 18.00 — the local high of last September.
Technical indicators on the D1 chart keep the signal for an increase: MACD indicator shows a high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 16.85, 16.75, 16.55, 16.10, 15.60, 15.30, 15.00, 14.10.
Resistance levels: 17.10, 17.25, 17.40, 18.00, 18.20, 18.70.

Trading tips

In this situation, long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 18.00 and stop-loss at 16.60.

LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart the price weakened below the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and can fall further to the levels of 108.60 ([–1/8]) and 107.80 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by the indicators’ readings: MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone, Bollinger Bands has reversed downwards, confirming the downward trend. The beginning of the upward correction is possible after the price is set above the level of 109.37 ([0/8]) and returns into the borders of the main trading Murray range with the targets at the level of 110.15 ([1/8]) and 110.93 ([2/8]).
However, on the weekly chart, the price has formed wide sideways channel, approximately coinciding with the central Murray channel (115.62 –109.37) and the price is now testing its lower border, which can cause a reversal. Moreover, the chart is close to the cycle line, which can reflect the possibility of the trade changing, too. In general, there is a potential of decrease, which seems to be restricted.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 108.60 ([–1/8]), 107.80 ([–2/8]), 106.25 ([2/8] W1).
Resistance levels: 109.37 ([0/8]), 110.93 ([1/8]), 111.72 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 108.60, 107.80 and stop loss at around 109.40.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 109.37 with the targets at 110.15, 110.93 and stop loss at around 109.00.

LiteForex:WTI Сrude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes were being corrected this week and reached the level of 63.80 today, losing about 3.7%. WTI price was under pressure of the shale activity in the US and Canada, as well as the growth of US commercial oil reserves. According to Baker Hughes, the number of new drilling rigs in the US increased over the week up to 759 units, while in Canada it became 220 units. The expansion of the production capacities of shale companies due to the growth of oil prices could not be a surprise for the market – it was repeatedly predicted by OPEC. An additional correction factor was the growth of oil reserves in the US for the second week in a row according to the API (by 3.229 million barrels). Today, similar data will be released from the EIA, which also forecasts an increase in reserves by 0.126 million barrels.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price has grown to 64.06 (Murray [2/8]) and, with its breakout, has the opportunity to rise to 64.84 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of "Bollinger Bands"), but in the medium term, a downtrend may continue. If the level of 64.06 remains impregnable, the decline will continue to the level of 63.28 (Murray [1/8]) and 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic came out of the oversold zone and formed a signal to buy. The MACD histogram ceased to grow in the negative zone. Bollinger bands are directed downwards.

Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72.
Resistance levels: 64.04, 64.84, 65.62.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at 63.70 with targets of 63.28, 62.50 and stop loss at 64.00. Above the level of 64.06 long positions will become relevant with the target of 64.84 and stop loss at 63.80.

LiteForex: SPX: Murray levels analysis

On the daily chart, the instrument was corrected from annual maximums to the level of 2812.5 ([8/8]). However, it will be difficult to break through much lower, as the price is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In addition, Stochastic confirms the possibility of renewal of growth; the indicator entered the overbought zone and is trying to reverse. A breakout of level 2812.5 may return the price to 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]) and above, to the level of 2968.0 ([7/8] W1). If the price is be able to gain a foothold below 2812.5 and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, the correction will be possible until the middle of the Murray trade range, at around 2656.3 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 2734.4 ([6/8]), 2656.3 ([4/8]), 2578.0 ([2/8]).
Resistance levels: 2812.5 ([8/8]), 2851.6 ([+1/8]), 2890.6 ([+2/8]), 2968.0 ([7/8] W1).

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened above the level of 2812.5 with the targets of 2851.6, 2890.6, 2968.0 and the stop loss at around 2790.0. Short positions can be opened at 2773.0 with targets of 2734.4, 2695.3, 2656.3 and stop loss at 2790.0.

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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: prices are decreasing

Current trend

This week, oil prices continued to fall. The market is under correction due to a revitalization of US shale oil producers.
According to Baker Hughes, last week number of rigs in the USA grew again by 6 units to 765, and in Canada, the number reached 234 units. Shale oil is expanding its presence in the world markets, objectively reducing OPEC+ Agreement effectiveness. According to Bloomberg, in December the supplies from the USA to UAE reached the level of 700 000 barrel. United Emirates produce millions of barrels of “black gold” itself, but shale oil is cheaper and cheaper in processing.
Yesterday’s API Crude Oil Stocks change release unexpectedly reflected the decrease of raw oil by 1.050 million barrel and gas resources by 0.227 million barrel, however, it supported the price slightly. The investors are focused on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change publication; the growth by 3.189 million barrel is expected.

Support and resistance

The price has consolidated within the range of 66.40–67.18 (Murray [1/8] and [2/8]). The breakdown of its lower border will let the price fall to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [0/8]) and 64.84 (Murray [–1/8]), the breakout of the upper border will let it grow to the levels of 67.96 (Murray [3/8]) and 69.53 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 67.18, 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 66.40, 65.62, 64.84.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 66.40 with the targets at 65.62, 64.84 and stop loss 66.70.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 67.18 with the targets at 67.96, 68.75 and stop loss 66.90.

LiteForex: AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, AUD weakened to its main competitors due to the indecisiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%, although investors have long been waiting for active action amid tightening of monetary policy by the banks of Canada, Great Britain and, of course, the Fed. Interestingly, the economic situation in Australia also contributes to higher rates: last year, inflation was near the target level of 2.0%, and the unemployment rate for the same period declined steadily, reaching a mark of 5.5%. Nevertheless, the RBA considers the current economic indicators are not enough.
Additional pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the RBA head Philip Lowe, who said that raising interest rates by several central banks does not mean that Australia will also automatically follow this path.

Support and resistance

The price is trying to start an upward correction and is currently at the key mark of 0.7812 (the middle line of Murrey range [4/8]). Consolidating above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7934 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.8056 (Murrey [6/8]). In the breakdown to the level of 0.7812, the decline may continue to the levels of 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7568 (Murrey [2/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone forming the buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold zone.
Support levels: 0.7812, 0.7690, 0.7568.
Resistance levels: 0.7934, 0.8056.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 0.7812 mark from 0.7860 mark with targets of 0.7934, 0.8056 and the stop-loss at 0.7810. Short positions may be opened from 0.7765 mark with targets of 0.7690, 0.7568 and the stop-loss at 0.7815.

LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for statistics

Current trend

This week the pair was growing and increased by 0.98%, reached the level of 1.2390.
Today the investors are waiting for a block of US statistics to be published, the key one is January CPI release, which is expected to be mixed and can cause great volatility in the market. The MoM index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the YoY one is supposed to decrease below the target level, from 2.1% to 1.9%, moreover, the core index can decrease from 1.8% to 1.7%. Earlier a number of FOMC members expressed concern about the insufficient inflation growth, which can lead to a slowing of interest rate growth. The recent correction of US stock market also affects the regulator negatively. However, the new head of Fed is optimistic: on Thursday, he stated that the regulator would monitor the situation but would keep the slight tightening of the monetary policy trend, as the slight normalization of the interest rate policy and a balance was developing.
Today the USD can be under pressure due to Q4 EU GDP release (the growth from 2.6% to 2.7% is expected) and US January Retail Sales data (can decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%).

Support and resistance

The price is around 1.2330 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). The further growth of the price, confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed upwards, can develop to the levels of 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.2500. The breakdown of 1.2330 will let the price return to last week lows at the area of 1.2200 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2500.
Support levels: 1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2300 with the targets at 1.2450, 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2260.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2330 with the targets at 1.2270, 1.2200 and stop loss at around 1.2360.

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week Brent prices grew to of the level 65.00, supported by the statement of Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who noted that OPEC and oil exporting countries should decrease the oil production further even after the market was balanced or the deficit appeared. The investors are also inspired by the news that OPEC and Russia are planning to continue the partnership after the end of OPEC+ Agreement.
The experts say that now in Saudi Arabia the acceptable level of the price is 70 USD per barrel instead of 60 due to the implementation of the large modernization program Vision 2030, which supposes diversification and decrease of the Saudi Arabian dependence from the oil sector. In particular, the state oil company Saudi Aramco will be gone IPO. However, the financial “airbag” for the reformation period is not formed yet.
Shale oil producers, as usual, has brought the main negative to the “black gold” market. Unexpectedly, US oil rig number has grown again (by 7 units to 798). The production is increasing, too, during the last week it went up to 10.271 million barrel per day, the next growth can cause another correction of the prices.

Support and resistance

The price is around 64.80 (Murray [3/8] H4, Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and can grow to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) and 66.40 (Murray [5/8] H4, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). However, the consolidation of the price below the level of 64.00 (Murray [1/8]) can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]) and 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 65.62, 66.40, 67.18.
Support levels: 64.00, 62.50, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 65.10 with the targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop loss around 64.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 64.00 with the target at 62.50 and stop loss around 64.40.