USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
Today the Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar. The pair was pressured by the publication of data on the Trade Balance in Japan. The balance surplus increased from 755 to 824 billion Yen, while experts expected it to fall to 492.8 billion.
Today attention needs to be paid to preliminary data on the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the US.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed horizontally and the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and forming a weak buy signal. Stochastic left the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 109.16, 108.67, 107.87, 106.22, 105.72.
Resistance levels: 110.14, 110.63, 111.61, 112.28, 113.71.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 108.67 and stop-loss at 110.14. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 108.67 with targets at 110.14, 111.61 and stop-loss at 107.87. Validity – 2-4 days.

NZD/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
Today the pair is growing amid the publication of strong data in New Zealand. In April, Exports from the country grew from 4.2 billion to 4.3 billion New Zealand Dollars that was slightly better than forecasts of economists. In addition, the Trade Balance surplus increased to 292 million NZD, while exports expected the surplus to decline to 60 million NZD. At the same time, Imports slightly fell, from 4.09 billion to 4.01 billion NZD.

The pair, however, is still pressured by the strengthening US Dollar, which is supported by the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is trying to turn up having formed a buy signal. Stochastic turned up as well.
Support levels: 0.6746 (local low), 0.6715, 0.6700 (local low), 0.6667 (28 March low).
Resistance levels: 0.6780 (local high), 0.6800 (23 May high), 0.6823, 0.6847 (12 May high), 0.6873, 0.6900 (5 May high), 0.6934, 0.6965.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6800 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.6873, 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.6750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.6800 with the target at 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6830. Validity – 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues falling amid weakening in the GBP. The Pound was pressured by poor data on the GDP for the first quarter of the year in the UK. On a year-to-year basis, the index came out at 2.0%, which was 0.1% worse than forecasts. In addition, the Total Business Investment in the country in the previous quarter declined by 0.5%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data from the US, where the first quarter of the year GDP is due. Experts predict growth in the index to 0.9%.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel. In case of a price consolidation below the level of 1.4610, the fall is likely to continue towards the lower border of the channel.

Support levels: 1.4610, 1.4540, 1.4485.  
Resistance levels: 1.4680, 1.4740, 1.4780.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 1.4610 with targets at 1.4540, 1.4490 and stop-loss at 1.4640.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4680 with the target at 1.4740 and stop-loss at 1.4650.

GBP/JPY: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair continues falling. The Pound was pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK where the Consumer Credit shrank from 1.822 to 1.298 million Pounds, against a forecasted decline to 1.6 million. In addition, Mortgage Approvals fell from 70.31 to 66.25 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the PMI Construction and BOE’s Governor Carney speech in the UK.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling after broking down the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, while bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and keeping a sell signal.

The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 156.56, 155.56, 154.44, 153.38.
Resistance levels: 158.08, 158.87, 159.60, 160.33, 161.25, 163.10, 163.83, 165.02.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 154.44 and stop-loss at 159.60. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 158.87 with targets at 160.33, 163.10 and stop-loss at 156.56. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics in the US, where the Nonfarm Payrolls came out at only 38 thousands, while economists predicted 164 thousands. The data lowered the probability of an interest rate hike at June’s meeting of the Fed to 4% that lead to a drop in the US against all major currencies.
Today attention needs to be paid to Fed’s Yellen speech that could determine Dollar’s dynamics for the nearest future.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower border of the ascending channel and broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which indicates further growth potential.
Support levels: 1.1300, 1.1130, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1450, 1.1540.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1380 with targets at 1.1450, 1.1540 and stop-loss at 1.1350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1220 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

AUD/USD

Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair strengthened to its new local high being supported by results of the RBA monetary policy meeting.

RBA’s assessment of economic prospects was quite optimistic, and interest rates were left unchanged at 1.75%. The Regulator believes that the current monetary policy would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy. However, inflation in Australia is expected to remain quite low for some time, but some signs of improvement are seen here as well.

The US Dollar, in its turn, is still under pressure from weak US labour market data and due to uncertainty regarding Fed’s tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a strong growth while the price range is widening actively. However, the price remains above the upper MA that indicates a downward correction possibility. MACD is growing and keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has reached its highs in the overbought zoned and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7426, 0.7400, 0.7369 (7 June level), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (near 2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low).
Resistance levels: 0.7463 (7 June high), 0.7500 (5 May level), 0.7533, 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 (3 May level).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7463 and 0.7500 are broken out with targets at 0.7567, 0.7593, 0.7618 and stop-loss at 0.7426, 0.7400. Validity – 2-4 days.

Short positions can be opened after the levels of 0.7426, 0.7400 are broken down with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7463. Validity – 2-3 days.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair substantially declined amid some strengthening in the US Dollar, which was supported by strong data on the US labour market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 264 thousands, while economists predicted their growth to 270 thousands.

At the same time, today the Australian Dollar was supported by strong data on the Industrial Production in China. In May, the index grew by 6.0% that was 0.1% better than expectations of experts.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling having left the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7538 (local low), 0.7327, 0.7300, 0.7259, 0.7200 (2 June low), 0.7144 (24 May low), 0.7100 (psychologically important level).
Resistance levels: 0.7400 (local high), 0.7426, 0.7463, 0.7500 (9 June high), 0.7533, 0.7567 (3 May high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7358 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7463, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7327. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7327 with the target at 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.7375. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair continues growing despite results of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The Regulator decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged and noted in the Monetary Policy Statement that only one more rate increase should be expected this year. The Canadian Dollar came under pressure, as Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz expressed concerns regarding the pace of economic growth in the country.
It should be noted that oil prices have a strong impact on dynamics in the pair, and if a downward correction in the oil market continues, the pair might get support.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price broke out the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD is hovering around the zero line. Stochastic is in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 1.3002, 1.2978, 1.2951, 1.2909, 1.2871, 1.2834, 1.2786, 1.2730, 1.2692, 1.2663.
Resistance levels: 1.3093, 1.3122, 1.3168, 1.3186, 1.3237.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3093 and stop-loss at 1.2951. Validity – 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3122 with the target at 1.3002 and stop-loss at 1.3168. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: pair continues growing

Current trend
At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.
According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.
Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: flat trades in the pair

Current trend
The USD has significantly grown against the CAD at the closing session on Tuesday, after two-day decline, which led the price back to the local lows of June. Minor correction was caused by the domination of cautious sentiments in the market. Prior to the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU, investors do not rush to open new positions, even despite some encouraging signals.
On Tuesday, the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen gave a speech before the Banking Committee in the Senate. As before, she has mentioned that the world economy is facing significant risks; China is facing economic difficulties and interest rate will depend on the economic situation. As long as economic situation remains ambiguous, the prospects of the interest rate increase in the USA in July are vague.

Levels of support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2829 (local highs of 20 June), 1.2861, 1.2900, 1.2962, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3143 (highs of 2 June), 1.3187 (highs of 24 May) and 1.3218.
Support levels: 1.2762 (local lows of 21 June), 1.2700, 1.2654 (lows of 8 June), 1.2600 (lows of 3 May).
On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is declining. Price range is narrowing, indicating mixed movement in the market in the past few days. MACD indicator is declining, giving a weak sell signal. If the “bearish” trend continues, it is recommended to keep existing short positions. Stochastic Oscillator is going down too. However, the line of the indicator has almost reached the lowest in the oversold zone, which reduces chances of continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. It is advisable to wait until the indicator leaves oversold zone.

Индикатор “Полосы Боллинджера” на дневном графике демонстрирует снижение. Ценовой диапазон сужается, отражая разнонаправленный характер торгов, наблюдаемых в последние несколько дней.  Индикатор MACD снижается, сохраняя слабый сигнал на продажу. При сохранении текущего «медвежьего» сигнала рекомендуется удерживать имеющиеся короткие позиции. Осциллятор “Стохастик” сохраняет нисходящую направленность. Вместе с тем, линия индикатора уже практически достигла минимальных значений в области перепродаж, что существенно ограничивает перспективы развития нисходящего тренда в краткосрочной и перспективе. Следует дождаться выхода индикатора из области перепродаж.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price goes up above the level of 1.2800 and rebounds from this level as a support level. Take profit can be placed at the levels of 1.2900 1.2962 or 1.3000. Stop-loss - 1.2762. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.
As an alternative scenario the “bearish” trend can resume after breakdown of the level of 1.2762. In this case, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.2600 and stop-loss of 1.2800. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday almost 52% of British people voted to leave the European Union, and the Pound crashed to its 30-year low. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair was under pressure from strong data on the number of initial jobless claims in the US. The indicator dropped more than expected from 277 to 259 thousands against the forecast of 270 thousands.
Today attention should be paid to statistics on durable goods orders in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price did not managed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.3902. The pair is trading below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, but the price range is widening suggesting the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing; a strong sell signal has been formed. Stochastic has turned horizontally near the border of the oversold zone.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 1.3655, 1.3356, 1.3229.
Resistance levels: 1.3778, 1.3902, 1.4013, 1.4169, 1.4287, 1.4424, 1.4561.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3356, 1.3229 and stop-loss at 1.3902. Validity – 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4013 with the target at 1.4424 and stop-loss at 1.3778. Validity – 1-2 days.