Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016

In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on  Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 20, 2016

Despite a more positive than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone, the Euro still failed to break through the 1.14 levels although gaining against the dollar.

Economic sentiment, which measures investors’ outlook for the economy, reached 21.5 in April from last month’s 10.6. Analysts predicted only 8.8 this month. The economic sentiment in Germany was released yesterday as well, surging to 11.2 from last month’s 4.3, eclipsing forecast of 8.0.

The Euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.1352 to 1.1375 and is 30 pips shy of reaching 1.14. The support is located at 1.1335 and 1.1235 subsequently, and the resistance is at 1.1420 and 1.1500 subsequently.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will announce the future of interest rates on Thursday, but it is expected that the bank will retain the current 0.25.

On the other hand, the USD index fell due to housing data revealed to be below projections, hinting a downtrend in the real estate and construction sectors. Building permits issued was down to 1.086 million from 1.177 million, a 7.7 percent fall from the previous month. The number of houses that started construction also slumped to 1.089 million to 1.194 million yoy.

As of time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368. The MACD indicator is at negative location and the price is rising.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 21, 2016

The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 22, 2016

The Eurozone’s interest rate was kept parked at 0 percent, ECB president Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The announcement sent the Euro to the bulls but traders’ reaction quickly dissipated, sending the pair to 1.12 levels.

Draghi dismissed reports that helicopter money will soon enter the picture, generally showing an upbeat look on the economy. He kept doors open for a negative interest rate in the future.

Inflation was at 0 percent last month, largely missing ECB’s target of almost 2 percent. Draghi said that the inflation should rise before 2016 ends.

The ECB president also responded to Germany’s criticisms on the former’s soft monetary policies.

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone and not only for Germany alone,” he said.
The market is now waiting for reactions from Fed.

The MACD is currently below its 9-day EMA, reaching an intraday high of 1.1311. The spot rate is 1.1282 at the time of writing and is still declining. The pair is facing an immediate support at 1.129 and 1.1162, subsequently, while immediate resistance is at 1.1341 and 1.1397 subsequently.

The Eurozone’s monthly manufacturing and services PMI are the next stimulus for the pair. Figures will be released later today.

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016

After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday.  Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 26, 2016

The New Zealand dollar recovered when markets opened on Tuesday while the USD index is still weak.

Ahead of the RBNZ’s announcement on monetary policies, the central bank’s shadow board put together by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research urged that interest rate should remain at 2.25 percent, causing the bird to fly a little higher.

The pair broke through yesterday’s resistance of 0.6895, peaking at 0.6897 earlier today. The kiwi dollar is currently testing 0.69 levels and is trading at a 42-pip range.

The initial support is at 0.6848 and 0.6814 subsequently. The immediate resistance is now at 0.6921. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 0.6893 and rising.

Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2016

The America filled the economic calendar with its important releases yesterday. For March, the Durable Goods Orders record was issued first wherein it came out at 0.8% in opposition to the report of 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence for April hitted 94.2 wherein the recent value was 94.2 and the report was 96.0. Traders were hoping to have a glimpse of sign about the state of the economy before the Fed release their decision on Wednesday. And this could also have an effect on any further activity of the dollar. Now, investors abstain from opening new positions before the meeting.

The Eurozone did not have any significant news yesterday. After a solid increase, the EUR/USD pair reduced a bit by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the UK has issued Mortgage Approvals index for March wherein the data came in at 45.1K in opposition to the report of 46.0K. The GBP/USD pair displayed an increase but diminished a bit by the end of the trades.

The attraction set for the safe assets provoked the buying of yen. The gossips regarding the BoJ who won't implement fresh soft measures also sustained the yen. We are thinking that the regulator will cautiously assess the impact of the running measures furthermore and will implement the new ones only in June. The USD/JPY pair consolidated.

Fundamental Analysis: April 29, 2016

On Wednesday, the dollar were constantly steadfast to other major currencies as a preparation for the last Federal Reserve System political speech. Investors put their attention to the result of the political meeting expecting for any signs about the interest rates modification in June. The Fed left the rates remained at 0.5%.

In Germany, the Consumer Confidence outstandingly improved as it came at 9.7 in opposition to the recent value of 9.4. The consumers think that the economy of Germany will get better for the next months and look forward to its modest improvement. The EUR/USD stabilized a little.

Since the market realized that the UK economy gained by 0.4%, the pound ceased in growing together with the expectations of economists, but it slowed down to 0.6% in the recent quarter. In the first quarter, the UK economy grew by 2.1% on annual basis, which is the same with the recent quarter and rather high than the anticipated 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair heightened by the end of the trades.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 3, 2016

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2016

Insignificant forecasts has been issued by the USA which is the ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices wherein the data came in at 48,7 in opposition to the reported 46,6. The stabilization of the price can be viewed already, yet it is too soon to determine whether this is enough for a rate hike. At the next meeting that will take place in June, the decision for the rate hike will come up.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March displayed -4.2% wherein the report was -4.3% and the recent value was -4.2%. And for the first time this year, the index heightened. It could be a sign that the growth is impossible to decline for the next months.

The pound reduced on Tuesday from being on peak for four months when the manufacturing activity of the UK dropped in April for the first time over the past three years wherein the data came in at 49.2 from 51.0 in March contrary to the reported 51.2. The index that has been issued heightened the concerns regarding the probable growth in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the Constitution Day, the Bank of Japan did not have any activity on Tuesday.