AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The data for March showed unemployment in Australia was down by 0.1% to 5.7%. A decline in unemployment rate indicates a favorable situation in the labour market and strengthens the national currency. The indicator of employment change exceeded the forecast and came in at 26.1K that suggests an increase in consumer spending and has a positive impact on economic growth. Amid these favorable statistics, the AUD/USD pair gained 70 points.
Data on Consumer Price Index are due today in the US. If favorable forecast is confirmed, a growth in the pair can slow down.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are growing. Stochastic is directed up near the border of the overbought zone.
Support levels: 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620, 0.7600, 0.7200, 0.7590, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7520, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7710, 0.7720, 0.7740.

Trading tips
After the price consolidates above the level of 0.7700, long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7710 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7670 with targets at 0.7640, 0.7620 and stop-loss at 0.7690.
Validity – 2-3 days.

GBP/JPY: general analysis

Current trend
At the beginning of the trading week, the GBP/JPY pair has been correcting amid expectations of important macroeconomic releases.
Data on adjusted merchandise trade balance is due in Japan on Wednesday. Analysts predict the indicator will grow from 242.8 billion to 834.6 billion. Thus, Japan is expected to post a trade surplus of almost 600 billion that will have a positive impact on the economy and the national currency. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on unemployment in the UK. An expected decline in the Claimant Count Change will support the country’s economy and strengthen the Pound. If the indicator remains unchanged or grows, the Pound is likely to come under pressure, and the GBP/JPY pair can substantially weaken.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and is giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is falling in the middle of its range.
In general, the indicators are giving a weak sell signal.
Support levels: 151.81, 149.92, 147.93, 145.08.
Resistance levels: 153.45, 155.74, 157.21, 159.34, 162.29, 163.60, 165.40.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 157.21 with targets at 162.29, 163.60 and stop-loss at 153.45. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 151.81 with targets at 147.93, 145.08 and stop-loss at 157.21. Validity – 2-4 days.

AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid strengthening in oil prices and the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics in Australia at the beginning of the week. The New Motor Vehicle Sales grew by 2.2% against the previous month that indicates that the consumer confidence is increasing.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change in the US. A lower reading could support the pair.

Support and resistance
The pair is consolidating near the level of 0.7820. In the nearest term, the price could decline to the level of 0.7730, but the main upward trend will remain. A trend change would be possible after a price consolidation below the lower border of the ascending channel.
Support levels: 0.7730, 0.7640, 0.7590.
Resistance levels: 0.7850, 0.7900, 0.7930.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 0.7790 с with the target at 0.7735 and stop-loss at 0.7810.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7800 with targets at 0.7850, 0.7900 and stop-loss at 0.7740.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair substantially strengthened amid the publication of labour market data in the US. Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 247 thousands while economists predicted a growth to 263 thousands. In addition, the number of Continuous Claims shrank by almost 40 thousands.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Consumer Price Index in Canada and Markit PMI’s in the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band while the price range narrowed, which indicates that the trend will likely change in the nearest future. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic has left the overbought zone suggesting a fall continuation.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 1.2691, 1.2644, 1.2619, 1.2591.
Resistance levels: 1.2752, 1.2764, 1.2794, 1.2855, 1.2889, 1.2944, 1.2993.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2764 with the target at 1.2855 and stop-loss at 1.2691. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2691 with the target at 1.2619 and stop-loss at 1.2752. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/JPY: fall resumed

Current trend
Yesterday the pair resumed its fall after some strengthening in the previous week.
The Euro was pressured by weak data from Germany where the IFO Business Climate in April fell from 106.7 to 106.6 points, while experts predicted a growth to 107.0 points. Furthermore, the IFO Expectations came out worse than forecasts as well amounting to 100.4 points.  
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. According to expectations, the Japanese regulator could proceed with further monetary policy easing.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price is trading above its upper border thus indicating the possibility of a downward correction. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic continues growing while in the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 125.00 (local low), 124.22, 123.57 (21 April low), 123.06, 122.54, 122.07, 121.71 (18 April low).
Resistance levels: 125.53 (local high), 126.16, 126.62, 127.30, 128.21 (31 March high), 128.75.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 125.53 with targets at 126.16, 126.62 and stop-loss at 124.70. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 125.00 with the target at 123.00 and stop-loss at 125.53. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
The pair continues growing amid weakening in the US Dollar, which was slightly pressured by yesterday’s Fed Interest Rate Decision.

As was expected, the rate remained unchanged. The statement, however, did not contain any hints on its possible increase at the July meeting. At the same time, employment in the US keeps growing that will later accelerate wages and inflation growth. In addition, strengthening oil prices will increase inflationary pressures as well. Therefore, the possibility of the next interest rate hike in the nearest term is quite high.

Support and resistance
The pair continues trading in the ascending channel.
The nearest support level is at 1.1295.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1342.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1342 with the target at 1.1386 and stop-loss at 1.1325.

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell amid the publication of weak data on the Consumer Price Index in Australia. In the first quarter, the index fell by 0.2% while economists forecasted a 0.3% growth.

At the same time, the pair was supported by today’s data on TD Securities Inflation from Australia that showed a 0.1% growth in the index. Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI’s from the US. Data above the forecasts might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are almost not changing. Stochastic is growing.

Support levels: 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7560, 0.7540, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7650, 0.7670, 0.7700, 0.7725, 0.7750, 0.7780, 0.7830.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7650 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.7610. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7610 with targets at 0.7580, 0.7560 and stop-loss at 0.7630. Validity – 1-2 days.

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly fell amid the publication of weak statistics on manufacturing production in China. In addition, the pair was pressured by today’s labour market data from New Zealand, where the Unemployment Rate grew from 5.3% to 5.7% while economists predicted a growth to 5.5%.

Today attention also needs to be paid to data on the ADP Employment Change and Trade Balance in the US. According to forecasts, the trade balance deficit will shrink to 41.5 billion USD, while the number of employed will amount to 196 thousands. The data could provide additional support to the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic is turning up in the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.6885, 0.6850, 0.6820, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6915, 0.6930, 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7070.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.6930, 0.6960, 0.6980 and stop-loss at 0.6870. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6860 with targets at 0.6820, 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.6885. Validity – 1-2 days.

Brent: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil corrected up and tested the level of 46.67, but could not consolidate above it. The price was supported by news that forest fires in Canada curbed its oil production.

Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on the Non-farm Payrolls that is due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). Growth in the index might support the US Dollar and pressure oil prices.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Bollinger bands are directed down suggesting the downward tendency will continue.

Support levels: 44.00, 43.00, 42.00.
Resistance levels: 45.00, 46.00, 47.26, 48.15.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of 44.00 with targets at 43.00, 42.00 and stop-loss at 44.65.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 46.00 with targets at 47.00, 48.00 and stop-loss at 45.35.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the middle of last week, the pair was growing amid publications of poor macroeconomic statistics in Canada. The Trade Balance deficit increased from 2.47 to 3.41 billion Canadian Dollars, while the Net Employment Change declined by 2.1 thousands, which was substantially worse than forecasts.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the JOLTS Jobs Opening in the US. The index is expected to fall from 5.445 to 5.412 thousands that might pressure the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band, while bands are directed up and the price range is expanding. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are stable. Stochastic is trying to turn up.

The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2906, 1.2841, 1.2794, 1.2698, 1.2640, 1.2574, 1.2538, 1.2492.
Resistance levels: 1.2967, 1.3018, 1.3056, 1.3084, 1.3125.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.3018 and stop-loss at 1.2937. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3018 with targets at 1.2906 and stop-loss at 1.3056. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair has been declining. The European currency remains under pressure, as Italy’s banking system is facing difficulties due to the increased number of bad loans. Many commercial banks need additional capital, and shares in Banco Popolare, one of Italy’s largest banks, lost 14 percent.

Weak data on the eurozone’s industrial production has had a negative impact on the Euro as well. The indicator came in at -0.8%, far below analysts’ forecast.

Support and resistance

RSI has reached the 36 level, and the pair still has potential for further fall. A correction can start from the level of 1.1364.

The nearest support level is at 1.1364.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.1449.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1400 and stop-loss at 1.1345.

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend
Since the beginning of last week, the pair is in consolidation having fallen by 50 points for the week. At the same time, yesterday the fall continued amid the publication of weak data in the US and due to uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rates hikes in the US.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on Building Permits and the Core Consumer Price Index in the US. According to forecasts, the indices will grow that might support the US Dollar.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and the bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line. Stochastic turned up as it bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.2851, 1.2825, 1.2800, 1.2780.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2906, 1.2933, 1.2961, 1.2979, 1.3001.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.2933, 1.2961 and stop-loss at 1.2851. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.2880 with targets at 1.2825, 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2906. Validity – 1-2 days.