XAU/USD: pair remains within range
 
Current trend
On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
 
Support and resistance
In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
 
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.

Brent: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil fell when the American Petroleum Institute published its weekly estimate of US crude oil inventories. Last week, crude oil stocks increased by 2.9 million barrels while analysts expected a decline by 2.5 billion barrels.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4-hour chart is directed down so the price is likely to continue declining. Though MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 36.80, 36.35, 35.90.
Resistance levels: 38.00, 39.00, 40.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with targets at 36.35, 35.90.
Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 38.00 with targets at 39.00, 40.00.

GBP/USD: pair trades flat

Current trend
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair ended the trading day at the opening level of 1.4815.
Trading volumes remain low today, but the volatility might increase during the publication of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a series of indicators from the US. Tomorrow, financial markets are closed, and trading will resume on Monday, 4 January.

Support and resistance
The GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range between 1.800 and 1.4830. The price is in the lower part of a descending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.4770.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators show the pair will be trading flat. In general, the decline in the pair tends to continue.
After the breakdown of 1.4800, the price might move further towards 1.4750, 1.4600 (year lows).
Support levels: 1.4800, 1.4770, 1.4750, 1.4700.
Resistance levels: 1.4880, 1.4925, 1.4985, 1.5025, 1.5080, 1.5100, 1.5140, 1.5230.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4860.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4870 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4820.

AUD/USD: pair is falling

Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued falling amid strengthening since the beginning of the week US Dollar.
The Dollar was supported by growing tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In addition, the pair is under pressure amid slowing Chinese economy. The Caixin China Services PMI for December that was published on Wednesday showed a decline in the index from 51.2 to 50.2 points that was significantly worse than economists predicted. Furthermore, the AiG Performance of Services Index in Australia fell in December from 48.2 to 46.3 points.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is widening. At the same time, the indicator formed a signal for correctional growth as the price has left the lower border of the range. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn sideways, thus indicating a possibility of an upward correction.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7042 (local low), 0.7015, 0.6981 (end of September low), 0.6936 (29 September low), 0.6908 (4 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7068 (local high), 0.7100 (psychologically important level), 0.7128, 0.7158, 0.7183, 0.7200 (5 January high), 0.7234, 0.7259.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7015 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7130, 0.7160, 0.7200 and stop-loss at 0.6960. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7015 with the target at 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.7070. Validity – 2-3 days.

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend
Gold continues strengthening amid economic crisis in China, where within the first few minutes of trade the CSI300 index fell by almost 7% thus forcing the authorities to stop operations on the stock market.
In addition, markets are worried about Chinese exchange reserves that in 2015 shrank by 512 billion Dollars. According to experts, the biggest chunk of it was spent trying to artificially support of the Yuan. The Chinese government also introduced limits on Dollar purchases thus trying to stabilise the national currency.
Therefore, due to falling oil prices and instability in China the gold is likely to keep strengthening in the near terms.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1097.66.
Resistance levels: 1112.97.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1100.00 with the target at 1147.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.

AUD/USD: pair in correction

Current trend
The pair is in correction after a significant fall of the begging of the year.
The pair was supported by today’s data on Trade Balance from China that came out better than expectations and slightly calmed worries on the market regarding the Chinese economy.
At the same time, the pair remains under pressure amid strengthening US Dollar, falling commodities’ prices and still continuing crisis on the Chinese stock market.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the Australian labour market for December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 5.8% to 5.9%.

Support and resistance
A breakout of the level of 0.7070 (ЕМА200 on the hourly chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart) would send the pair towards 0.7100 (December lows), 0.7145 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7200 (upper border of a descending channel on the 4-hour chart).
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic signal purchases, and start turning up on the daily chart as well.
Support levels: 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7070, 0.7100, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7290.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.6970 with targets at 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6810 and stop-loss at 0.7010.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7080 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7030.

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly strengthened amid falling US Dollar that was pressured after the publication of poor data on Jobless Claims in the US. At the same time, despite increased Home Loans in Australia, that usually supports the AUD the pair is falling today.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall to 0.0% that might pressure the USD.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are slowly growing.
Support levels: 0.6935, 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6830, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6983, 0.7015, 0.7068, 0.7135, 0.7194.

Trading tips
Open short positions after the price consolidation below the level of 0.6860 with the target at 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.6890.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 0.6935 with the target at 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6900.

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The EUR/USD pair is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1000. The European currency remains under pressure from a range of fundamental factors.
France’s economy is facing difficulties and needs additional monetary support of about 2 billion euros, according to a preliminary estimate. Unemployment rate, which is more than 10%, and domestic security are seen as the key issues for the French government. At the same time, the President stated the current situation will not affect tax rate and amount of social benefits.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index data, released in Germany. If the indicator comes in below 0.3%, ECB might have to introduce additional stimulus measures that will add pressure on the European currency.

Support and resistance
Support level: 1.0825.
Resistance level: 1.1000.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1000 with the target at 1.1140 and stop-loss at 1.0950.
Short-term short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0850 with the target at 1.0800.

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are barely changing. DI lines are moving up, while ADX is horizontal.

XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, but above the EMA50, all directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving down, while ADX is horizontal.

Key levels
Support levels: 14.00, 13.85, 13.67.
Resistance levels: 14.15, 14.39, 14.75, 14.99, 15.28, 15.51, 16.15, 16.34.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 14.15 with targets at 14.00, 13.85 and stop-loss at 14.30. Validity – 1-2 days.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 13.85 with the target at 14.25 and stop-loss at 13.67. Validity – 1-2 days.

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid growing anxiety on the market due to declining oil prices. In addition, the Euro remained under pressure prior to the ECB Interest Rates Decision that is due later today. The decision could significantly affect dynamics in the pair.
At the same time, the pair was supported by data on the Consumer Price Index from the US that came out worse than expectations. In December, the index fell by 0.1%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving in opposite directions, while ADX is horizontal.
Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0770 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0613, 1.0525 (beginning of December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0995, 1.1057 (middle of December 2015 highs).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0915 with targets at 1.0945, 1.0995 and stop-loss at 1.0900. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0863 with targets at 1.0802, 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0890. Validity – 1-2 days.

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend
The price of gold continues growing amid yesterday’s news regarding a possibility of the QE program expansion by the ECB. In the nearest future, the price is likely to grow to the level of 1112.50 where the pair traded at high volumes. After that, the price will fall.

Support and resistance
The RSI is below the 70 mark indicating that the growth can continue to the level of 1115.00.
Support levels: 1074.52 (moving average with 200 period).
Resistance levels: 1112.50.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1112.50 with the target at 1074.80 and stop-loss at 1114.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1114.00.

USD/CAD: pair fell

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly fell amid substantial growth in oil prices.
In addition, the Canadian Dollar was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Canada. Retail Sales in November 2015 grew by 1.7% while economists predicted a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in December grew by 1.6%, against a 1.4% growth in the previous month that was, however, slightly worse than forecasts. Similar index by the Bank of Canada in December fell by 0.4% that was also a little worse than expectations.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic reached its critical level in the oversold zone thus limiting further fall potential.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.4100 (local low), 1.4050, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.3915, 1.3850, 1.3780, 1.3700.
Resistance levels: 1.4169 (local high), 142.00, 1.4245, 1.4315 (21 January high), 1.4400, 1.4450, 1.4500, 1.4609, 1.4700 (20 January high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.4100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.4200, 1.4250 and stop-loss at 1.4000. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.4100 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4150. Validity – 1-3 days.