USD/JPY: review and forecast
Current trend
Having opened this trading day with a growth, the US Dollar started declining in the European session. However, later on, an upward dynamics resumed. The American currency is strengthening amid a fall in oil and precious metals prices.
Recently, BOJ Governor stated the Regulator might continue easing monetary policy to stimulate wage growth in Japan. The next BOJ meeting is due on 17-18 December, while the Fed announces its interest rate decision on 16 December.
Support and resistance
After a growth at the opening of the trading day, the USD/JPY pair has started declining towards the support level of 121.50 (Fibonacci 50.0%) during the European session.
However, when the correction ends and OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart turn up, the pair is likely to resume its growth within an upward channel on the daily chart.
Support levels: 121.50, 121.35.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 122.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.10 with targets at 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.25 with targets at 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.55.

EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
Support and resistance
Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
Support level: 1.0925.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

AUD/USD: general review
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing.
Today the pair was supported by strong data from Australia. New Motor Vehicle Sales for November grew to 6%, while the House Price Index came out in line with forecasts at 2%. At the same time, the pair is pressured by expectations of the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due tomorrow. Markets expect rates to be increased that would add to the pressure on the pair.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index in the US. Volatility on the market is expected to be low.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods are above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes remain almost unchanged. ADX indicates pair’s decline, DI lines cross over and directed down.
Today, the pair is expected to remain within the range of 0.7247-0.7302.
Support levels: 0.7247 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.7182, 0.7159 (this week low), 0.7133, 06984, 0.6908.
Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7302 (MA100), 0.7343 (last week low), 0.7353, 0.7385.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.7280 with targets at 0.7302, 0.7343 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7247 with the target at 0.7182 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Scenario validity – 1-2 days.

USD/JPY: pair returned to growth
 
Current trend
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair significantly strengthened. Trading in the pair was very volatile due to a large number of macroeconomic publications that was coming out and approaching US Fed meeting at which, as expected, the regulator will increase its key interest rate.
The pair was supported by strong data on consumer inflation in the US. The Consumer Price Index for November grew from 0.2% to 0.5% that was better than economists forecasted.  
 
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic bounced off the oversold zone and growing.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 121.48, 121.00, 120.56, 120.34 (14 December low), 120.00 (22 October low), 119.62, 119.39.
Resistance levels: 122.00 (local high), 122.22 (11 December high), 122.60, 122.93, 123.35, 123.66 (2 December high), 124.00.
 
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 122.22 with targets at 123.25, 123.66 and stop-loss at 121.40. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 122.00 with targets at 121.00, 120.50, 120.30 and stop-loss at 122.60. Validity – 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: waiting for Fed meeting
Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell and lost about 150 points, which was the result of a publication of strong data in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew to 0.5% that was 0.1% higher than forecasts. Today attention of traders is focused on the Fed meeting where the regulator could increase its key interest rates for the first time since 2006. Usually, a rate increase significantly supports the national currency.
The Fed Interest Rate Decision is due at 9 pm (GMT+2), its press conference is planned for 9:30 pm (GMT+2). Very high volatility is expected on the market.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the lower and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are rapidly falling.
Support levels: 1.0907 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0871 (MA100), 1.0794, 1.0565, 1.0527.
Resistance levels: 1.0930 (MA50), 1.0970 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.1035 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0959 (current week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0907 with the target at 1.0800 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0970 with the target at 1.1035 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
Validity – 1 day.

AUD/USD: in contracting triangle

Current trend
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. This decision confirms the Fed is confident that US economic recovery is sustainable and suggests the Regulator has a favorable outlook for the global economy.
RBA, in its turn, is likely to keep loose monetary policy due to weak inflation. Moreover, the Australian Dollar is under pressure from a continuous fall in commodity prices, in iron ore price in particular, as Australia remains the largest exporter of this raw material. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair tends to continue declining.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, a contracting triangle has formed with the lower border near the level of 0.7190 and the upper border at 0.7335 (EMA144). The price is likely to breakdown the lower border of the triangle and continue declining to 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980 and 0.6910 (year lows).
In case of a correctional growth, the price might reach the level of 0.7335 (EMA144 on the daily chart). An upward trend would resume only after the consolidation above the levels of 0.7465 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci).
Support levels: 0.7215, 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7500.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7260 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7335, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
On Thursday, the XAU/USD pair was falling, being under pressure from the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. Having lost more than 2500 points, the price for gold was moving down towards its year lows, reached at the beginning of December. At present, the price has started correcting up in the area of 1054.35.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the lower and the meddle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The DI lines of ADX are crossing each other and directed down.
The indicators confirm a downward trend in the XAU/USD pair.
Today, the price is likely to remain within the channel between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1049.85 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1049.98 (December low).
Resistance levels: 1067.73 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1084.65, 1099.14, 1120.41, 1133.94, 1165.35, 1191.93.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1060.50 and stop-loss at 1051.00. Validity – 1 day.

GBP/USD: important statistics
 
Current trend
Important data on the UK economy is expected during the week.
Tomorrow data on the Current Account is due. According to forecasts, in November the budget deficit increased by about 4.7 billion Pounds. On Wednesday, data on the third quarter GDP is out. The figure is expected to remain at 0.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, latest data on consumer inflation showed a near-zero growth, while producer price indices significantly fell.
Therefore, absence of inflation growth and poor macroeconomic statistics shift the expectations of monetary policy tightening in the UK to the second half of 2016 that will continue pressuring the pair.
 
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is falling towards the lower border if a descending channel near the level of 1.4860.
An upward correction in the pair could continue up to the levels of 1.5000 (ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart), 1.5085 (ЕМА144), 1.5120 (ЕМА200), 1.5230 (23.6% Fibonacci correction and upper border of the descending channel). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 1.4860 will accelerate the fall towards 1.4800, 1.4750 and 1.4600 (year lows).
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750.
Resistance levels: 1.4960, 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5230.
 
Trading tips
Open short positions from current prices with targets at 1.4860, 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4930.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4940 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5085, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4890.

XAG/USD: growth impulse getting weak
Current trend
Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said a hike in US interest rates is seen as a start of a new period in US economic growth. US economy has a solid momentum going into 2016. He also noted the Fed might continue increasing rates not at every meeting but every other meeting. Therefore, the US Dollar tends to strengthen while the price of precious metals will remain under pressure.
However, due to geopolitical tensions and global financial markets instability, demand for the safe haven assets might increase.
Support and resistance
Despite OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions, the growth impulse is getting weak.
The price reached the resistance levels of 14.20 (ЕМА144), 14.30 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). Theoretically speaking, an upward correction might reach the level of 14.45 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).
The pair is trading in a descending channel on the daily chart with the lower border near the level of 13.50 and in a descending channel on the weekly chart with the lower border below the level of 13.20. After the breakdown of the level of 14.00 (August lows), the fall will accelerate.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.65, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.45, 14.80, 15.05, 15.30.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.20 with targets at 14.00, 13.65, 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.40.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.55 with targets at 14.75, 15.00 and stop-loss at 14.40.

USD/JPY: pair declined
 
Current trend
Last week, the Japanese Yen gained support when the Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor gave a generally favorable outlook of the country’s economy.
At present, the USD/ JPY pair still tends to continue declining.
However, Japan is undergoing a period of a weak growth in Industrial Production, Services PMI and a decline in exports. Moreover, inflation will remain low in the medium term. Thus, BoJ might have to consider further changes to monetary policy.
 
Support and resistance
A decline in the pair has stopped at the support level of 120.55 (EMA200 on the daily chart and 61.8% Fibonacci) which is also the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart. While the price remains above this level, it tends to grow in the medium term.
The breakout of the resistance levels of 121.35, 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.00 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci) would allow the price to strengthen to 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA histogram is near the zero line. Amid a decline in trading activity due to the upcoming holidays, the pair is likely to remain near the level of 121.00.
Support levels: 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
Resistance levels: 121.35, 121.50, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.
 
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 121.60 with targets at 121.90, 122.00, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 120.35 with targets at 120.00, 118.85, 118.00 and stop-loss at 120.75.

USD/JPY: general analysis
 
Current trend
The Japanese Yen continues strengthening against the US Dollar amid the publication of BoJ economic report.
Initial Jobless Claims statistics are due today in the US. Analysts expect the indicator to be down by 1K to 270K. Such dynamics suggests strong labor market conditions and might support the US Dollar.
Tomorrow, attention needs to be paid to Japan’s Unemployment Rate which is expected to increase by 0.1% to 3.2%. Weakness in the labor market affects the country’s economy and the JPY exchange rate.
 
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the MA50, MA100 and MA144, directed parallel and horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing; thus, negative dynamics in the pair is likely to develop.
Support levels: 120.12 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 118.80, 118.06, 117.20, 116.19.
Resistance levels: 121.73, 122.00, 122.50, 123.60, 124.25, 125.27.
 
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 120.12 with the target at 121.15 and stop-loss at 119.85.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 119.85 with the target at 119.00 and stop-loss at 120.12.
Validity – 2 days.

AUD/USD: pair strengthened
 
Current trend
Last week the pair strengthened by 100 points amid some weakening in the USD.
Tomorrow data on the Producer Price Index for the fourth quarter is due in Australia. Considering strong decline in oil prices during the last quarter that dragged down all commodities’ prices, the index is unlikely to show a growth. Thus, an absence of inflation growth could force the RBA to ease monetary policy further. At the same time, amid gradual policy tightening in the US the pair will remain under pressure in the medium-term.
Tomorrow attention also needs to be paid to data from the US on Goods Trade Balance, Rebook Index and Consumer Confidence.
 
Support and resistance
The pair broke out its trendline and resistance level at 0.7210 but failed to reach the key resistance level at 0.7330 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
A breakdown of the levels of 0.7210, 0.7120 (lower border of a correctional upward channel on the daily chart), 0.7100 (December lows) would resume a downward trend towards 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 (year lows).
At the same time, a price consolidation above the levels of 0.7450 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) would return the pair in an uptrend.
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend purchases, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators turned to sales.
Support levels: 0.7210, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7290, 0.7330, 0.7400, 0.7450, 0.7510.
 
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 0.7250 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 0.7310 with targets at 0.7330, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7280.