Topic: Forex Analysis by LiteForex
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AUD/USD: flat after yesterday's growth
Current trend
Today, the AUD/USD pair is keeping its positions though the US dollar is strengthening against other currencies. On Thursday, the Australian dollar gained significant support from strong labour market statistics, released in Australia. Thus, Unemployment Rate declined from 6.2% to 5.9% in October, while Employment Change indicated a growth by 58.6K that is about four times above the forecast.
Australia's economy is export-oriented, thus, it will benefit from a weaker national currency. At the same time, China, as Australia's biggest trading partner, is showing clear signs of economic slowdown, lowering inflation and weakening domestic demand.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Retail Sales for October and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, due in the US. Favorable statistics will strengthen the US dollar.
Support and resistance
On Thursday, the price strengthened to the resistance level of 0.7150 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the upper border of a downward channel and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic indicators are turning to short positions.
If the price fails to overcome the level of 0.7150, a downward trend may resume towards 0.7030, 0.7000 (the lower border of the downward channel), 0.6950 and 06910 (September and year lows).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, indicating that the price may continue correcting up and breakout the level of 0.7150.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7190, 0.7325, 0.7390, 0.7500.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7110 with targets at 0.7030, 0.6960, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7150.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7170 with targets at 0.7210, 0.7300, 0.7380 and stop-loss at 0.7140.
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GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Last week, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen amid weak US macroeconomic indicators, in particular, when Retail Sales statistics were released on Friday. However, at present, the dynamics has changed.
This week, attention needs to be paid to Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index and Consumer Price Index, due in the UK. The US, in its turn, releases Consumer Price Index. Favorable statistics may strengthen the national currencies.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due today in the US. Analysts forecast a rise from -11.36 to -6.00 points. Nevertheless, the indicator does not influence much market volatility.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, MAs with 10 and 20 periods are above the current price and directed downward. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing. According to the indicators, the pair tends to decline, but no high volatility is expected today so the price is likely to trade within the range of 1.5268-1.5061, which was formed by MA10 and the lower MA of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.5061 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5026 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1.5268 (last week high), 1.5292 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5520, 1.5821.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.5120 and stop-loss at 1.5268.
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 1.5268 with the target at 1.5360 and stop-loss at 1.5230.
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USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics
Current trend
Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
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XAU/USD: technical analysis
Current trend
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.
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EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the European currency reached its lows at 1.0585 and started correcting up. At present, the pair is trading at 1.0620. The level of 1.0585-1.0570, where large trading volumes were seen yesterday, is considered as the key one.
Moreover, it is worth noting that a number of major banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have significantly reduced EUR/USD short positions. As many analysts suggest, these actions are already priced into the market. If it is so, a large correction in the EUR/USD pair is possible.
Support and resistance
As for technical indicators, no reaction followed the publication of Germany's GDP statistics, which showed a growth by 0.3% in the third quarter. On an annual basis, GDP was up by 1.8%.
Support level: 1.0585.
Resistance level: 1.0650.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0585 with the target at 1.0450 and stop-loss at 1.6000.
As an alternative scenario, long positions can be considered if the price rebounds from the level of 1.0585.
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USD/CAD: in upward trend
Current trend
Since the opening of the Asian session, the US Dollar has been growing. Yesterday, the US currency gained support from macroeconomic statistics that strengthened expectations of a hike in US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.
US Energy Information Administration reported a rise by 0.961 billion barrels in crude oil stocks that added pressure on Canada's currency.
Amid expectations of US interest rates increase, oversupply of the world oil market and Canada's loose monetary policy, the USD/CAD pair tends to continue growing in the medium term.
Support and resistance
Though OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend short positions, they are still giving buy signals on the weekly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions as well.
Long positions remain valid while the price is trading above the key support level of 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci and EMA 144 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.3240, 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.2965.
Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level or from 1.3310, 1.3290, 1.3260, 1.3230 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3390, 1.3410, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3190.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3180 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.2965 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
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XAU/USD: pair resumed fall
Current trend
After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.
Support and resistance
The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
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AUD/USD: pair under pressure
Current trend
Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.
The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese economy.
Thus, until 1 December when the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due the pair will remain under pressure. If interest rate are increased then, the fall in the pair will accelerate.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the month, the pair remains in an ascending correctional channel on the 4-hour chart.
However, a breakdown of the support levels at 0.7200 (ЕМА50), 0.7170 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, lower border of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) would return the price in a downward channel on the daily chart and sends the pair to 0.7030 (November lows), 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.
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XAG/USD: pair in flat
Current trend
Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.
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USD/CHF: growth potential remains
Current trend
Since the beginning of this week the USD/CHF pair was falling.
However, today poor macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland supported the pair. The SVME – Purchasing Managers’ Index for November fell to 49.7 points, while Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%. Both indices came out significantly worse than forecasts. Furthermore, the third quarter GDP grew by only 0.8% against the previous year that was also worse than expected.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November from the US that is forecasted to grow from 50.1 to 50.3 points. A high volatility is expected on the market.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel between the levels of 1.0340 and 0.9800. Despite the price is trading at year highs, the growth potential towards the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart) remains in the pair.
At the same time, a downward correction to the level of 1.0215 (ЕМА50, lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart) is possible.
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicate a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart they turned to sales.
Support levels: 1.0215, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.
Trading tips
Pending sell order can be placed from the level of 1.0270 with targets at 1.0190, 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0310.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0320 with targets at 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0280.
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USD/JPY: long positions preferred
Current trend
Since the beginning of Asian session today the USD/JPY pair fell.
The pair was pressured by poor data on the Chinese manufacturing sector that showed further cooling of the Chinese economy. In addition, pressure on the pair comes amid investors’ expectations of further monetary policy easing in the eurozone because the Yen serves as the safe-haven currency during market instability.
At the same time the pair is supported by expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December and further monetary policy easing in Japan as it was mentioned before by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the upper border near the level of 124.50, while the last 4 weeks it has been trading in a range between the levels of 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and 122.50 (38.2% correction).
The pair is prevented from further fall by strong support levels at 122.50, 122.25 (ЕМА144), 122.00 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 123.70 would send the pair to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
On the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions.
Support levels: 122.50, 122.25, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be placed at the levels of 122.50, 122.25, 122.00 with targets at 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.70; and at 123.30 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 121.40 with targets at 121.10, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.70.
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EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.
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XAU/USD: price of gold declines
Current trend
Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.
Support and resistance
Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.
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USD/CHF: safe-haven currency
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.
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AUD/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.
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Brent: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.
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AUD/USD: Australia Dollar managed to strengthen
Current trend
On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.
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EUR/USD: NFPR had little effect
Current trend
Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.
Support and resistance
For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.
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GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000 and stop-loss at 1.5080.
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XAU/USD: pair in correction
Current trend
The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.
Support and resistance
After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
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XAG/USD: in correction
Current trend
Yesterday on COMEX, the price of March futures on silver fell by 21.6 cents.
The pair remains under pressure amid expectations of an interest rate hike in the US in December this year and a further cycle of gradual monetary policy tightening in the US in the next year. In addition, the price of silver is pressured by falling commodities and oil prices.
Due to the absence of important macroeconomic publications today and prior to meetings of the Bank of England and the Swiss NB that are due tomorrow, the pair will continue moving along a sideways channel.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a descending channel with the lower border below the level of 13.50.
An upward correction in the pair can continue up to the levels of 14.40 (ЕМА144), 14.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 (year lows) will accelerate the fall and sends the price to 12.30, 13.00 (2009 lows).
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they start turning to purchases indicating that the upward correction can continue.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.40, 14.50, 14.80, 15.30.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 13.95 with targets at 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.10.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 14.30 with targets at 14.40, 14.50, 14.75 and stop-loss at 13.95.
Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex
USD/JPY: pair fell
Current trend
During the last two days the pair substantially fell.
The pair was pressured by strong data on Machinery Orders for October in Japan that grew by 0.7% and significantly exceeded forecasts. In addition, the Yen is supported be revised data on the GDP for the third quarter that showed a 1% growth, the Consumer Confidence Index for November that increased to 42.6 points and Labour Cash Earnings that grew by 0.7%. At the same time, demand for the Yen as the safe-haven currency could increase prior to meetings by the Bank of England and Swiss NB that are due tomorrow.
Strong macroeconomic data can push the Bank of Japan to postpone further monetary policy easing that will also support the Yen.
Support and resistance
The pair remains above the strong support levels at 122.60 (EMA144), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction), 122.35 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakdown of which would send the price towards 122.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart). A farther fall is restricted by support levels at 121.50 (50% correction), 121.35 (ЕМА144), 120.60 (61.8% correction, EMA200).
On the 4-hour and daily charts OsMA and stochastic recommend sales.
Support levels: 122.60, 122.50, 122.35, 122.15, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.50 with targets at 122.35, 122.10, 121.80, 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex
NZD/USD: general review
Current trend
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreased its key interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5% in line with expectations. However, the NZD grew against the USD and approached last week highs.
In its Rate Statement, the regulator stated that it expects stability in the near future with regards to the interest rates. The RBNZ is not going to dismiss completely an option of further policy easing if needs but it is unlikely to happen soon, which is a positive factor for the national currency.
Support and resistance
On 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are gradually growing. DI lines of the ADX indicator are crossing each other and directed down.
Support levels: 0.6719, 0.6675, 0.6659 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.6636 (MA100), 0.6578, 0.6470, 0.6428.
Resistance levels: 0.6747, 0.6787 (last week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6719 with the target at 0.6675 and stop-loss at 0.6747.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6747 with the target at 0.6787 and stop-loss at 0.6719.
Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex
USD/JPY: review and forecast
Current trend
Though expectations of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting are growing, the JPY has strengthened.
Futures traders are putting an 87.2% chance of a hike in US interest rates. At the same time, many investors suggest that a continuous growth in the USD has ended since a rate increase is obvious and already priced into the markets. In this situation, many market participants prefer taking profits on USD long positions.
The Japanese currency and the country's economy also gain support from low commodity prices.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a Pin-bar that suggests a possible correction after downward movement.
Support levels: 121.00, 120.50, 120.00.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 123.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 121.00 with targets at 120.50, 120.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.00 with targets at 122.30, 123.00 and stop-loss at 121.70.
