Topic: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

A very simple logic and 100% reliable result (I think so).

Description:

Market EURUSD 1Day.
Open long when the price reaches an Up fractal. Close at the end of the bar.
Open short when the price reaches a Down fractal. Close at the end of the bar.
If the prise reaches the opposite fractal during an opened position ignore the signal. (you can experiment with this rule - the Opposite direction signal menu above the strategy slots)

Forex Strategy Builder V 2.4.0.0
Strategy name: New
Exported on: 4/13/2007 8:05:11 AM

Market: EURUSD 1 Day
Spread: 4 pips
Swap Number: 1 pip

Balance: 6474 pips
Minimum account: -69 pips
Maximum drawdown: 412 pips
Time in position: 13 %

The same direction signal - does Nothing
The opposite direction signal - does Nothing

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Bar Closing
     The market exit is at the end of the bar
     Base price  -  Close

http://ForexSB.com/img1/fractal_str1.jpg

2 (edited by DannyBens 2007-04-13 06:48:02)

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Hi Popov - tested this with a different EURUSD 1d data, and it is not profitable - so the backtesting engine may be ok in this case, but perhaps the data is not tradable.

also, how do you calculate the fractal levels? I would like to replicate your formula and re-test.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

The fractal model I use in FSB consists of minimum 5 bars. The main point here is that FSB rises a signal no earlier than the closing of the fifth bar or at the opening of the sixth bar.
Some platforms shows the fractal in the pick(bottom) bar. I think this is not correct. We have to have minimum five accomplished bars before to plot a fractal. See the FSB charts.

The data are from my Bulgarian broker. Time zone +2h. MetaTrader platform.

4 (edited by DannyBens 2007-04-13 08:15:53)

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

yes - i am unfamiliar with how to calculate fractals - can you elaborate?

EDIT:
From the looks of the indicator chart, I can assume that this is the calculation:
If lowest price of bar is lower than the two previous bars and lower then the two next bars, then this is from now the low fractal.

In other words - if we are using a 6 bar pattern, and we are now at the 6th bar thjen
if low of bar 3 < bar 2 and low of bar 3 < bar 1 and low of bar 3 < bar 4 and low of bar 3 < bar 5
then fractal low of bar 6 is the low of bar 3

Correct?

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Here are my results, with data from a US-based broker:

Forex Strategy Builder V 2.4.0.0
Strategy name: EURUSD 1d Fractal
Exported on: 4/13/2007 09:59:38

Market: EURUSD 1 Day
Spread: 4 pips
Swap Number: 1 pip

Balance: -18 pips
Minimum account: -2489 pips
Maximum drawdown: 2890 pips
Time in position: 13 %

The same direction signal - does Nothing
The opposite direction signal - does Nothing

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Bar Closing
     The market exit is at the end of the bar
     Base price  -  Close

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Can you send me your data file. There is a very big difference in the result.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Yes, I will in a few minutes.

In the meantime, this is the result with data since 2000 only (removed past data)
It is much better.

Forex Strategy Builder V 2.4.0.0
Strategy name: EURUSD 1d Fractal
Exported on: 4/13/2007 10:33:48

Market: EURUSD 1 Day
Spread: 4 pips
Swap Number: 1 pip

Balance: 2091 pips
Minimum account: 0 pips
Maximum drawdown: 524 pips
Time in position: 13 %

The same direction signal - does Nothing
The opposite direction signal - does Nothing

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Bar Closing
     The market exit is at the end of the bar
     Base price  -  Close

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

This is near to my result.

I think you have been used too old data - before the EUR has been on the market for the first calculation.

It seems the EURUSD rapidly changed its behavior after 1997. Maybe we have to use data (for EURUSD) after 2000 only.

http://forexsb.com/img1/fractal2.jpg

About the fractals see this: http://forexsb.com/forum/viewtopic.php?pid=216#p216

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

I'm not sure when EURUSD has started on the Forex Market. But all earlier data are not reliable.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Yes, I tend to agree about early data not being reliable.
Thanks for the link.

(doesnt this forum has an email notification when a reply is posted?)

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

I think it has but I've never used :-(

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Couldnt find it in the settings. I keep clicking topics to see if there is something new smile

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

It was forbidden by default. Sorry. Now is ok. You can subscribe to separate topic. smile

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Yup. now its nice, thanks.

15

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Much better, if you close limit 300, stop 16. Working good with all currency

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Sounds like a problematic setup. 300 pips stop without accumulating positions, only to capture the 16 pips may pose an issue with interest payments. 300 pips can take a long time to get back, and you are left open, sometimes in the interest negative direction - 16 pips will not cover interest of more than a few days.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

This fractal system works for EURUSD 1Day only.
It seems this market is most inertial and closes above(below) a fractal break.

I see an eventual issue - there is no stop loss.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

I agree that there should be a way to put multiple exit rules that are not indicator based (i.e. bar close or stop loss or profit target)

But, in any case, here is an example of the same strategy with a different exit rule - exit at 20 pip loss or 40 pip profit:

Forex Strategy Builder V 2.4.0.2
Strategy name: EURUSD 1d Fractal
Exported on: 4/13/2007 20:01:23

Market: EURUSD 1 Day
Spread: 4 pips
Swap Number: 1 pip

Balance: 3225 pips
Minimum account: 0 pips
Maximum drawdown: 183 pips
Time in position: 17 %

The same direction signal - does Nothing
The opposite direction signal - does Nothing

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Stop Limit
     Stop  -  -20
     Limit  -  40


Works just as well on all four pairs, but I do not yet trust the Stop/Limit exit rules.

19

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Try with this method:

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Moving Average 13  (with 1 Day period)
Moving Average 1  (with 4 Hours period)
     Is it visible  -  Yes


Works good on all four pairs

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Forex Strategy Builder V 2.4.0.1
Strategy name: New
Exported on: 4/14/2007 1:21:35 AM

Market: USDJPY 4 Hours
Spread: 4 pips
Swap Number: 1 pip

Balance: 2615 pips
Minimum account: -73 pips
Maximum drawdown: 281 pips
Time in position: 24 %

The same direction signal - does Nothing
The opposite direction signal - does Nothing

[Opening point of the position]
Fractal
     Open long at Fractal Up
     Is it visible  -  Yes

[Closing point of the position]
Moving Average
     The market exit is at the MA value
     Smoothing method  -  Simple
     Base price  -  Close
     Period  -  1
     Shift  -  0
     Use previous bar value  -  Yes


It looks very good.
You catch the main idea of FSB - fast and easy strategy building.

21

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

Why can?t I add a closing logic condition by this stratery?

I can add a closing logic condition only by bar closing. Why not when closing by indicators?

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

The Closing logic conditions are triggers that have to close the position.
The closing price is in the Closing point of the position.

If we specify a different closing price (like an MA) and we have a closing signal we cannot close if the price is far away from the MA.

We can use  Closing logic conditions when we are 100% sure that we have a closing price.
FSB allows the usage of Closing logic conditions when in the Closing point of the position slot we have Bar closing or Day closing only.

This is the only logic that works fine.

23

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

I don?t agree with this logic

It would be fine, if I coud close at MA and closing condition limit 100. Trade would close at limit if reached, if not trade would close at MA.
For trading with period 1Day stop and limit maximum value 300 is too small. And it would be nice, if we could define yust limit (without stop) and yust stop value (without limit)

Fot exampe:

Open long at fractal up
condition: price above MA
condition: bar opens below the  Up Bollinger band

Close at MA
condition: limit Up Bollinger band  (if reached)
condition:trailing stop  (if reached befor MA)

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

As I understand, we need several closing slots.
So to be possible to set:

Closing at:   Moving Average   
or at :          Bar closing
or at:           Stop / Limit   

It is a good idea, but it is difficult to be done.

Edit:

We cannot set this into a closing condition slot. It is only a condition (true or false). This slot do not determine a closing price.

How can we close at MA when the Trailing stop is reached. The price is at the stop, not at the MA. This trailing stop has to be in a different closing slot.

Re: EURUSD 1day Fractal, 6000pips profit, 100% reliable

You are right. But this logic is taken into consideratin, when we close with limit and stop price. Instead of fixed limit price we could set indicator and the same for closing stop price. This would be very helpful.