XAUUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum, and the development of the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, within which the wave v of 1 has developed, and a local correction has started as the second wave 2 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 1719.7 – 1695.85. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1824.

XAGUSD - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave iv of 1.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 25 – 26. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.82.

EURUSD under the negative pressure

The EURUSD pair traded negatively in the previous sessions to break the bullish channel’s support line and settles below it, but we notice that the EMA50 forms good support to protect the price from suffering more losses, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of regaining the bullish trend again. Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to trade positively today, and the targets begin by surpassing 1.0650 to ease the mission of heading towards 1.0745, noting that breaking 1.0580 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to test 1.0515 direct.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0540 support and 1.0710 resistance.

NZDUSD - economic activity slows down in New Zealand

In recent weeks, macroeconomic data from New Zealand suggest a significant slowdown in economic activity, with Westpac's Q4 domestic consumer sentiment index at 75.6 points, down from Q3 87.6. Business confidence from Australia and New Zealand banking group ANZ fell in December to –70.2 points from –57.1 points a month earlier, which was the lowest on record since 1998, while the business activity indicator from the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ) accelerated the fall to –25.6% from –13.7% before.

The trading instrument is moving within a corrective uptrend with a local decline.

Resistance levels: 0.639, 0.651 | Support levels: 0.626, 0.613

USDCAD - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth upward wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the wave 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has ended, and the local correction ii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3380.

USDJPY - Rhetoric of representatives of the Bank of Japan is a catalyst for the growth of the yen

Quotes of USD/JPY are correcting at 132.21. The yen added 4.2% in yesterday's trading, reacting to the results of the Bank of Japan meeting, at which the interest rate was kept at the same level of -0.10%, but the policy of controlling the yield curve of 10-year government bonds was adjusted: previously it was allowed to deviate by 25 basis points either way from the target level of 0.00%, and now changes by 50 basis points become possible.

In addition, the regulator announced a significant increase in the volume of purchases of government bonds in unlimited volumes, expanding the range of purchased instruments: in addition to traditional 10-year bonds, the Bank of Japan now intends to buy assets with more global maturities. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he sees the move as an opportunity to stave off the negative effects on the economy from high inflation caused by higher import prices due to the depreciation of the yen. Thus, the Bank of Japan expects that after the appreciation of the national currency, the inflationary impact will begin to decrease.

On the daily chart of the asset, the USDJPY pair is trading in a local downtrend, reaching the support line near the low of August 2. Technical indicators still hold the sell signal, which has recently intensified.

Support levels: 131.5, 127.2 | Resistance levels: 133.5, 137

NZDUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the wave (C) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed and a local correction has started to develop as the second wave ii of 1 of (C).

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6515.

NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair touched 0.6275 level and found solid support there, to show some bullish bias and retest the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the negative trades to break the mentioned level and head towards 0.6130 as a next target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.6385 and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6250 support and 0.6365 resistance

ADAUSD - Under pressure from general market negative factors

Last week, the US regulator confirmed the need to continue raising the interest rate and keep it at high levels until at least 2024: investors' expectations for softening hawkish rhetoric did not materialize, and the dollar resumed strengthening against alternative assets. The consequences of the cessation of FTX are expressed, first of all, in the loss of confidence on the part of traders: by the middle of this month, 200.0K BTC worth about 3.4B dollars were withdrawn from the market, not counting other tokens, and soon this process is more likely everything will continue. Also, many cryptocurrency companies associated with the platform are experiencing problems: for example, market maker Auros announced restructuring its activities due to the company losing access to 20.0M dollars blocked on the bankrupt crypto exchange. According to Coinbase's Cryptocurrency Market Outlook 2023 report, market conditions will continue to push investors to leave altcoins for safer currencies – BTC and ETH, and the price of ADA will remain under pressure in the medium term.

The trading instrument is moving within the long-term downward channel. Consolidation of the price below 0.2441 (Murrey levels [2/8]) will give the prospect of further decline to 0.2197 (Murrey levels [1/8]) and 0.1953 (Murrey levels [0/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be 0.2929 (Murrey levels [4/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 0.3173 (Murrey levels [5/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey levels [6/8], the upper limit of the downward channel).

Resistance levels: 0.2929, 0.3173, 0.3418 | Support levels: 0.2441, 0.2197, 0.1953

USDJPY - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 develops. Now, the wave (v) of a is developing, within which the wave v of (v) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 127.36 – 121.67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 138.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair faced negative pressure yesterday to attack 1.0580 level but it keeps its stability above it, and begins today with new bullish bias motivated by stochastic positivity, waiting to head towards our main expected target at 1.0745. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain active as long as 1.0580 level remains intact.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0550 support and 1.0710 resistance.