NZDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the wave (C) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of i.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.6500 – 0.6600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6149.

GBPUSD needs positive momentum

The GBPUSD pair shows some slight bearish bias now to move around 1.2200 level, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which its next target located at 1.2345. Note that breaking 1.2130 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to start bearish correction that its targets begin by visiting 1.1925 areas.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2120 support and 1.2290 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, and a local correction is forming as the wave iv of 3.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2590 – 1.2900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1899.

USDJPY attempts to recover

The USDJPY pair shows positive trades by today’s open to attempt to breach 136.50 level, to hint the attempt to recover in the upcoming sessions, but we notice that the technical indicators provide negative signals that hinder the positive attempts, to face contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level.

Note that holding above 136.50 will lead the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 138.25 areas mainly, while trading below it again will reactivate the negative scenario that its targets begin at 135.25 and extend to 134.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 136.00 support and 137.80 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.

Chart of the day - NATGAS

Beginning of the week on the markets has been rather calm so far. Indices from Asia-Pacific moved lower but scale of declines was moderate. Similar picture can be seen at the beginning of the European cash session. However, there is one market that is seeing extraordinary moves and this is US natural gas (NATGAS). NATGAS launched a new week with a massive bullish price gap and is now trading almost 9%, after trimming some gains. New forecasts pointing to colder weather in the United States in the days ahead are to blame. Price tested 7 resistance zone, marked with 61.8% retracement of the recent major downward move, at the start of trading but has failed to break above. A lot will now depend on whether bulls make another attempt and whether they succeed. A break above would brighten the outlook for buyers and could herald a move towards recent highs. On the other hand, it should be noted that 7 is a good technical spot for reversal and move back towards price zone ranging between 6.30 mark and 38.2% retracement.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair returns to test the bullish channel’s support line, and we need to get positive motive that assists to push the price to resume the main bullish trend within the mentioned channel, which targets 1.0600 followed by 1.0745 levels as next main stations. Until now, we continue to suggest the bullish trend that gets continuous support by the EMA50 conditioned by the price stability above 1.0515, noting that breaking this level will stop the positive scenario and cause key turn to the trend to the downside.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0460 support and 1.0630 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

Crude oil price begins bullish correction

Crude oil price keeps rising to breach the bearish channel’s resistance by today’s open and settles above it, to start bullish correction for the entire decline that started from 92.9 areas, on its way to test 75.63 as a first positive station.

Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, and breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 78.93 areas, while breaking 73.65 represents negative factor that will stop the correctional bullish trend and press on the price to decline again. 

The expected trading range for today is between 72.50 support and 76 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i is developing, within which the wave v of (iii) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7040 – 0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6584.

Chart of the day - GBPUSD

GBPUSD pair pulled back slightly today as traders digested latest economic data from Great Britain. Yesterday’s UK jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7% in the August-to-October period, while average earnings rose by a stronger-than-expected 6.1%, however it also did indicate a slowdown in hiring as businesses brace for a difficult start of 2023. Monday's data had shown the UK economy grew more than anticipated in October, however UK Chancellor Hunt warned that the situation could get worse before it gets better. Today's figures showed that UK inflation fell more than expected in November, cementing expectations of a 50 bps move from BoE tomorrow. Also comments from Governor Bailey may provide more details as to the way forward and cause some market movements on Thursday.

Of course the pair may face a spike in volatility in the evening, following Fed interest rate decision. The US central bank is expected to moderate its aggressive tightening campaign but point to a higher peak for rates. Traders will be closely monitoring Fed Chair Powell’s press conference which will take place after the rates announcement for guidance on futures rate hikes.

From a technical point of view, the GBPUSD pair continues to oscillate around local support at 1.2355 waiting for a catalyst for another big move. Should break lower occur, downward move may deepen towards next support at 1.2150 which is marked with previous price reactions and 100 EMA (purple line). In case of a morendovish FED, the pair may retest recent high at 1.2450.

Crude oil price faces solid resistance

Crude oil price’s rally stopped at 75.63, which formed solid resistance against the price, accompanied by witnessing overbought signals through stochastic that might press on the price to rebound bearishly, while the EMA50 supports the price positively.

Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaching 75.63 will lead the price to achieve additional bullish correction that its next target reaches 78.93, while breaking 74.85 will put the price under negative pressure that its targets begin by testing 74.05 followed by 72.60 levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 73.80 support and 77.30 resistance.

USDCHF - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ends as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the formation of the wave C of (2) is ending.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.99 – 1.0151. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9085.