Date : 24th January 2023.

Market Update – January 24 – Stocks in a Rally!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex settled at 101.50, Wall Street rallied on the back of tech amid ongoing hopes for a downshift in Fed rate hikes amid a potential moderation inflation this week. Fears of a recession and the potential for the worst quarter of earnings in seven years were put aside for now. Microsoft announces Tuesday but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provide strong support for investors.

*The USD Index failed to extend above 102, while it returned to 101.50, as Treasuries cheapened amid the gains in risk appetite and the pressure of upcoming supply, including $120 bln in shorter dated Treasury coupons and a hefty corporate calendar.
*EUR – is flirting with the 1.09 mark for 7th time the past 2 weeks.
*JPY – pullback to 129.70.
*GBP – holds above 1.2400. Today, UK public borrowing data showed a rises with debt financing costs – the highest borrowing figure for December on record and a much higher number than anticipated.

*Stocks – The US500 breached 4058 but closed at4019 (+1.19%), with the US100 up 11930 and the US30  +0.8%, to 33700 higher. The Nikkei rallied 1.46% and European stock futures are higher. Logitech quarterly sales fall 22% as slowdown fears bite. Microsoft announces today  but news it is investing $10 bln in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT provided strong support for investors. Advanced Micro Devices AMD 9.22% added $6.46, or 9.2%, to $76.53 and Nvidia NVDA 7.59% rose $13.54, or 7.6% to $191.93.
*USOil – steady at $81.50, as USD decline and expectations of rising Chinese demand support crude prices.
*Gold – breaks 9-month high today, extending to $1,941.40

Today – German, Eurozone, UK and US flash S&P Global PMIs are due today. New Zeleand and Australian Inflation for Q4 is also on tap.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.45%). Rejects 130.70 for a 3-day in a row. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line are close to neutral zone. RSI 42 & flat, H1 ATR 0.200, Daily ATR 1.920.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th January 2023.

Market Update – January 26 – BOC Pause, TESLA Beat, USD at Lows.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

HK markets reopened today and rallied +2.15%, other Asian markets were softer following a weak handover from Wall Street (opened -1.6% but recovered to close flat) Gold remains at 9-mth highs and USD at 8-mth lows. The Dovish 25bp hike from the BOC hit the CAD (USDCAD hit 1.3430 from 1.3340); – the key phrase the Bank – “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of cumulative interest rate increases.” Speculation building that the BOC could even be raising rates before year end. #TSLA (+0.38%) Earnings beat (+5.5% after hours) record deliveries (with 1.8-2.0 possible 2023), magins held up & the 20% price cuts kicked-in. MUSK talked of deep recession and more cost cutting for year ahead.  Gold $1940, USOIL over $80.00, BTC breaches $23k.

*The USD Index has tested the 8-mth low at 101.25, today, trades at 101.40 now ahead of another busy economic data day .
*EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 today, following 1.0925 on Monday.
*JPY – Sank below support at 130.00 yesterday, and tested back to 129.00 today, before Japanese minister warning of not letting speculators dominate JPY movements. 
*GBP – Sterling has rallied over 1.2400 today to test 1.2410 resistance.
*Stocks – The US markets closed flat (-0.18% to +0.03%) yesterday amid concerns over Earnings. US500 -0.02%, (-0.73) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4042. IBM. AT&T both beat, whilst Boeing numbers were mixed. In Europe today Diageo and SAP have both posted strong beats, lifting European stocks (+0.60%) at open.

*USOil – topped at $81.00 yesterday before dipping to $79.50 after inventories showed a 0.5 million barrel build compared to expectations of 1.2m after two weeks of huge builds. Trades at $80.40 now.
*Gold – Tested into $1949 earlier today from $1922 support yesterday, and trades at $1940 now.
*BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7K earlier today and holds $23k currently.

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP Advance/PCE Prices Advance (Q4), Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Japanese CPI, SARB Policy Announcement, Earnings from Diageo (beat), STMicroelectronics, Nokia, SAP (beat) LVMH, Comcast, Intel & Visa.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.24%). Rallied from 0.8620 post BOC lows yesterday to test 0.8700 & trades at 0.8680now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.10 & stalling, H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0073.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th January 2023.

Market Update – January 30 – Mega Central banks, OPEC, NFP & Earnings week.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

China Stock market returns from Luna New Year break. Chinese stocks rose while most other Asian equities fell as investors looked to interest rate decisions scheduled this week in the US, UK and Europe and busy earnings agenda.  Nikkei ended at a more than 1-month high today. Global Stocks excluding China are lower, USD steady and Yields picked up. European & UK FUTS also lower. The rout in India’s Adani Group is weighing on sentiment while the December income report showed cooling in income, a drop in spending, and deceleration in the annual measures of inflation,  supporting the well-expected step down in the FOMC’s rate hikes to 25 bps on February 1.

“Markets could sell stocks to book profits ahead of the Fed meeting, NFP, & earnings?”

*The USD Index – bouncing between 101.50-101.90.
*EUR – sank below 1.0900 again.
*JPY – sank to test 129.23 overnight but currently settled at 129.65.
*GBP – stuck between 1.2340-1.2430.
*Stocks – The US markets are lower after last week’s rally.  US100 -0.95% at 12128, US500 traded at 4060 (-0.4%). AMEX & TSLA (+10.6% & 11.00%) leaders – INTEL & Chevron laggards (-6.4% & -4.4%). Of the 25% of the S&P that has reported so far, nearly half have beaten sales estimates, and over 70% have beaten earnings.
*Tesla +11.00% (7.2 million contracts were exchanged on Friday, according to Cboe Global Markets data, breaking the previous record of 5.2 million contracts set earlier this month and accounting for nearly 13% of all options trading)  – its best week since 2013. Cashed out $175 million just on Friday.

*USOil – jumped on the open but quick pullback below $80.00, alongside other raw materials including copper, with losses in oil also coming despite an Israeli drone strike against a target in Iran over the weekend, according to Wall Street.
*Gold – Tested$1934 in themorning before turning to $1925 support.
*BTC – Jumped to $23,854 buoyed by signs that the US Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest rate increases. Bitcoin rallied by more than 40% this month.

Today – German Q4 GDP -1.1% decline; Earnings: More than 100 S&P 500 companies, including six Dow components, are slated to report earnings in the week ahead,i.e. Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Ford, McDonald’s, Pfizer etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.48%). Declined from 92.65 high, to test S2 at 91.69. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line turn negative. RSI 37 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.208, Daily ATR 1.246.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st February 2023.

Market Update – February 1 – US100 Posts Best January Since 2001.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stocks and bonds corrected higher on Tuesday as the deceleration in ECI energized short covering and boosted risk appetite. Global Stock market finished with solid. Earnings were mixed, but a lot of bad news has been digested, opening the door for bargain hunting. Treasury yields declined, led by the front end as the market senses rate hikes are coming to an end. Month-end buying also contributed. Along with ECI, the calendar included further declines in home prices, a drop in consumer confidence, and a slide in the Chicago PMI.

*UK: UK house prices inflation slowing down & shop prices continue to rise &  the mortgage rate surge through October; will add to the arguments of the hawks at the MPC, adds to signs that against the background of rising interest rates and falling disposable income the housing market is slowing fast. The question is how fast and how long the correction will be as the risk that thousands are stuck in situation with negative equity where loans exceed house values could exacerbate an already very difficult situation for the UK economy.
*China:China Caixin manufacturing PMI signals ongoing contraction. Unlike the official PMI report,  the Caixin General Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50 point no change mark and nudged only slightly higher – to 49.2 from 49.0 in December last year.
*The USD Index – slumped to 101.991 as the market saw fading prospects of an aggressive stance from the FOMC, even though many expect Chair Powell to push back against the rallies in bonds and stocks.
*EUR – advances slightly to 1.0879 from 1.0800.
*JPY – steady for 6 days in a row 130.00 – 130.40. BOJ buys record $182 billion worth of bonds in January
*GBP – drifted to 1.2300 bottom.
*Stocks – US100 +1.67% at 12118, for a 10.68% surge on the month, US500 1.46% higher and up 6.18% for January, the best monthly gain since October. And it is the first January increase since 2019. The US30 rose 1.09% on the day for a 2.83% monthly gain. Exxon smashes Western oil majors’ profits with $56 billion in 2022. AMD revenue beats targets, Wall St relieved after Intel’s grim outlook. GM shoves aside recession fears with robust 2023 forecast. Pfizer sees steep 2023 fall in COVID sales, aims to bolster pipeline.

*USOil – rebounded from 76.50 to 79.40 yesterday. The IMF has also lifted its global growth forecast and that should likely keep demand expectations and prices underpinned.
*Gold – closed at 1928.
*BTC – held above 23000 into the new month.

Today – EU prelim. HCPI, US ADP employment change, US ISM Manufacturing and FED meeting and Press Conference. Earnings: Meta, Novo, Thermo Fisher, Novartis, Sony etc.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Coffee (+6.66%).Bounced to 182 from 169.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line extends higher. RSI 86 but lower , H1 ATR 1.77, Daily ATR 5.48.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th February 2023.

Market Update – February 8 – Markets Mixed Following Powell.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chair Powell’s comments – cancelled each other out – talked more “disinflation” with “significant declines in inflation.” in 2023 but the surprise 517k NFP he could not explain – adding to the 5-5.25% range argument. Fed Fund futures are now pricing the terminal rate at 5.15% in July. (up from 4.9% ahead of NFP). So “As we were.” USD slipped and then reversed, Stocks (NASDAQ +1.90%) & Yields (US10yr 3.6745) closed higher. Biden’s SOU speech has high ambitions but has little chance of success with a divided Congress.

*The USD Index continued to rally from 8-mth lows last week at 100.65. Third day higher touched 103.80 before reversing under 103.00 and is back to 103.20 currently.
*EUR – sank to new 21-day lows at 1.0675 yesterday, rallied to 1.0760 and back to 1.0735 now.
*JPY – Declined over 1.3% yesterday to 130.40 lows, over 131.00 now at 131.20.
*GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 then weakened again to breach the psychological 1.2000 yesterday to touch 23-day lows at 1.1960. The pair is back to 1.2050 now.
*Stocks – The US markets rallied on the disinflation side of the story (0.78% to 1.90%)  US500 1.29%, (52.94) 4164, holding the key 4100.  US500 FUTS trade at next key resistance 4175. MSFT +4.2%, GOOG +4.42% & Bidu +12.18%. All rallied on AI news, Oil majors rallied on back of BP Earnings. ATVI +5.62% on back of MSFT, their own Earnings and takeover rumours.

*USOil – Futures rallied again to trade at $77.55 today from $72.20 lows on Monday.
*Gold – Advanced from $1865 lows yesterday to $1880 resistance now.
*BTC – Tested $22.7k lows yesterday, before lifting over $23k, to 23.2k now.

Today – BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Cook, Barr, Bostic, Kashkari & Waller, ECB’s Knot & Elderson, Earnings from ABN AMRO, Credit Agricole, Equinor, Societe Generale, (Beat)  AP Moeller-Maersk, CVS, Disney and Uber.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.20%). Sank from a test of 91.95 yesterday to 90.70, before rallying again to 91.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising & testing 0 line. RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.190, Daily ATR 1.105.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th February 2023.

Market Update – February 10 – Hawkish Fedspeak & a Japanese Surprise.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

FEDSpeak (Barkin) – remains Hawkish – Stocks fell again the NASDAQ tumbled -1.02%, while the S&P 500 slid –0.88%, and the Dow lost -0.73%. #TSLA (+3.00%) bucked the trend. All eyes on the credit market as the 2/10yr rate remains 80 bp+ inverted 7 Terminal rate edges higher to 5.15%. Weekly Claims Overnight RBA mins. more hawkishness and worries over higher inflation, China CPI dipped, Japanese PPI unchanged, and potential new BOJ Governor Amamiya – “appropriate to maintain ultra loose monetary policy” and the “Yield Curve Controls do not need more flexibility”. However, UK GDP -0.5% December, avoids recession by a whisper. Raft of other data biased to the upside.  USOIL cools but holds $78.00, Gold lost close to 2% and BTC down over 5% at $21.8k as the SEC turns up the regulation heat.

BREAKING _ #JPY rallies +1.00% as NIkkei report that Kazuo Ueda is the preferred candidate to replace Gov. Kuroda. Aa apparent less Dovish candidate than other candidates. #USDJPY down to 130.80 from 131.85 highs earlier today.

*FX – USD Index holds 103.00 at 103.13, up from 102.50 lows yesterday,  EUR holds over 1.0700 at 1.0734, down from a 1.0790 on Thursday, Sterling ran from 1.2060 lows to 1.2180 highs yesterday before testing back to 1.2100 now.
*Stocks – The US markets slumped again  (-0.61% to 1.68%) led by #GOOGL -4.54% US500 -0.88% (-36.36) 4081, breaching the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4088 now.

*Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $78.50 yesterday before sinking to $76.50 and back to $77.70 now and heading for a +5% gain this week. Gold – tanked from $1890 highs yesterday to $1854 lows before recovering $1860.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.6k lows today, down -8.7% from the weekly high on Wednesday over $23.4k.

Today – Canadian Jobs Report, US UoM Consumer Sentiment, ECB TLTRO III, EU Leaders Summit, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Harker, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.72%). Tanked on the Nikkei scoop regarding next BOJ Governor. Sank from a test of 159.60 earlier to 158.00 now. MA’s now lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 26.05 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2900, Daily ATR 1.558.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th February 2023.

Market Update – February 14 – Pivotal Day.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Markets have prepped for today’s CPI report over the last several sessions, while also pricing in a more hawkish FOMC stance going into Q2.

*Stocks high, Treasuries mixed and US Dollar sagged.  Shorter dated Treasuries underperformed and were in the red most of the day as a “higher for longer” Fed stance was more fully priced in.
     *Gains in Microsoft, Apple, and Meta helped boost tech Nasdaq. Microsoft +3.12%, pushing its market cap over $2 trillion, Meta +3.03% after the Financial Times reported that Meta is planning another round of layoffs. Tesla -1.14%.
*FX – USDIndex sagged – slumped to 102.93 today, from an overnight high of 103.83, helped by a rebound in USDJPY.
*EUR & GBP – extend losses against USD – 1.0737 & 1.2170 respectively. UK ILO unemployment held steady but employment rose in the three months to December. The tight labour market and wide spread strike action is forcing companies to up wage offers and regular pay in order to keep hold of skilled staff.
*JPY – just a breath below 133 before pullback to 132 again. The Yen recouped losses as Japan nominated a new central bank governor in a closely watched decision & as Japan’s Q4 GDP growth lags below expectations.
*The US100 led the way with a 1.48% bounce, followed by the US500’s 1.14% advance, while the US30 was up 1.11%.

*USOil – down at 79 area again but stands above 20-DMA.  It fell after the US unveiled a plan to release supplies from its strategic reserves, offsetting price pressures triggered by rising demand in China and Russia’s plan to cut output. (Reuters)
*Gold – sideways for a 3rd day at $1856-1867.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21.7k.

Today – All eyes are on US Inflation. EU prelim GDP is also on tap.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.65%). Holds at 20 DMA. MAs flattened, MACD lines are at 0, RSI 44 presenting that pullback has run out of steam. H1 ATR 0.146, Daily ATR 0.883.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th February 2023.

Market Update – February 16 – USD & Yields hit new recent highs & Stocks bounce.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A big beat for US Retail Sales, lifted the USD, Treasury Yields and global stock markets, with a raft of “soft landing” scenarios swirling and even talk of a “no landing”, a situation where inflation cools quickly, the economy grows steadily and unemployment remains low without having a knock-on effect for inflation. A real disparity in views now emerging. Goldman Sachs cut the chance of a US recession in the next 12 months to 25%, from 35%; US 2yr/10yr yield curve at -87bp as the 10yr hits a 7-week high.  Overnight: Japan reported it’s largest ever trade deficit at $174 billion as imports surged due to high energy costs with exports unable to compensate. AUD lower after a slump in jobs (-11.5k vs +20k) & unemployment up (3.7% from 3.5%).

*FX – USD Index tested into 104.00 for a 28-day high. Back to 103.65 now.  EUR tested the weekly low at 1.0670 before recovering 1.0700, JPY  breached 134.00 (new 28-day high) & tardes at 133.86 now. Sterling declined from 1.2175 to once again bounce from below 1.2000 to trade at 1.2050 now. Nicola Sturgeon the First Minister of Scotland announced a shock resignation, that will likely strike a blow for Scottish  independence and increase the chances of the Labour Party at next years general election.
*Stocks – The US markets rose into close after a weak open. (+0.11% to +0.92%) Movers – #ABNB +13.35% & COIN +17.5%, OXY & PXD both shed over -5.2%. US500 0.28% (11.47) 4147, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4161 now.

*Commodities – USOil – Futures dropped to $77.20, 5-day lows, yesterday after a very large inventories build of 16.3m barrels vs. 2.4m barrels last week. Prices have recovered to $79.20 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1830 yesterday before recovering to $1840.
*Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Surged over +10% yesterday from $22.0k lows, to breach the key $24k resistance area and test to 24.9k highs.

Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed, PPI, Weekly Claims.  Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Cook & Mester, ECB’s Lane, Panetta & de Guindos, BoE’s Pill. EARNINGS – Pernod Ricard (miss), Commerzbank, (+7.5%) Orange, Airbus, Standard Chartered (+2.11%), Nestle (in-line -0.49%) , Paramount & Dropbox.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%). Rallied to 134.35 yesterday but has dipped to 133.75 now. MA’s now flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 51.42, H1 ATR 0.196, Daily ATR 1.588.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st February 2023.

Aussie & Kiwi Post RBA, Ahead Of RBNZ.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The minutes of the RBA meeting showed that the committee believes the cash rate is currently lower than in many economies, while the data showed a higher than expected breadth and persistence of inflation. They supported continued rate hikes in the coming months (25 bps or 50 bps may be considered, with medium-term inflation expectations holding up well.) On peak interest rates, the Committee noted that this would depend on household income and expenditure outflows, employment and price movements.

Chart 1: Japanese manufacturing and services PMI. source: Trading Economics

On the other hand, the Asia Pacific trading session saw a mixed performance from Japan’s PMI data for February. In manufacturing, the data was pressured below the waning line for the fourth consecutive month and posted the largest decline since August 2020 at 47.4 vs. 48.9. The report showed that weak global demand led to a further decline in buying activity and that foreign sales were contracting at a faster pace, leading to the largest decline in both output and new orders since July 2020. In the services sector, the figure was recorded at 53.6, the highest since June last year. This was mainly due to a faster rate of growth in new orders and a modest increase in new business from abroad. Overall, the performance of the manufacturing and services PMIs offset each other, with the final Japanese composite PMI remaining unchanged at 50.7 in February.

Figure 2: Japanese inflation rate. Source: Trading Economics

Japanese inflation remains high. In December 2022, inflation in Japan rose to 4% year-on-year, the highest level since January 1991. A weaker Yen and higher imported raw material prices have contributed to the price spike. Not only that, but core inflation also recorded a 4% annual increase, the biggest rise since December 1981. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said later that wages would rise in line with rising labour demand and inflation, but “believe inflation will slow down in the middle of fiscal 2023“.

Haruhiko Kuroda will attend his last monetary policy meeting in office next month. He will be succeeded by Kazuo Ueta, an academic and former member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee. This figure is “an unknown quantity” to many, but according to Professor Shibu Takahashi, who has worked with him, Kazuo Ueta cannot be classified as a Hawk or a Dove. “He is a “pragmatic problem solver“. Kuroda’s decision on yield curve control (YCC) at the last meeting will be a key one. If he chooses not to act, then Kazuo Ueta could face “massive bond sell-off” pressure after taking office.

The next key event meanwhile for the Asia region is the RBNZ policy announcement tonight. The RBNZ last announced an interest rate decision around three months ago, when they raised rates by 75bp to bring rates to 4.25%. 400bp has been added to the tightening cycle, with November’s 75bp hike being the cycle’s most extreme increase. The decision is now between adding an additional 75bp to raise rates to 5% or sticking with 50bp to bring rates to 4.75%.

Not only has inflation fallen short of the RBNZ’s own expectations, but measures of corporate confidence have also fallen to an all-time low, and their business PSI has barely expanded, suggesting that the economy should have slowed. The inflation forecast over the next two years fell from 3.6% to 3.3%, but the forecast for next year is still historically high at 5.1%.

Overall, a 50bp increase is the most likely scenario, but a 75bp increase is also a possibility. Therefore, the focus is on how hawkish or not the RBNZ’s statements are perceived to be and whether or not they signal that the tightening cycle is coming to an end.

Technical Analysis: NZDUSD & AUDJPY

NZDUSD

NZDUSD, D1 – This currency pair has slipped below the 200-day EMA slope to test 0.6190 support. A break of this price level would show that the 0.5510 rebound has ended at 0.6537 (50% FR of 0.7463 – 0.5510 drawdown) and instead, the decline from the 0.7463 peak will resume back towards lower price levels.  As long as the 0.6190 support remains intact, the upside movement could test 0.6389 and the 0.6537 interim high.

Overall, the price bias is still neutral despite the RSI mark at 39 and MACD is still in the selling zone. So certainly, the RBNZ event will be the next trend parameter.

AUDJPY
The daily chart shows the AUDJPY rebounding from a 9-month low on 20 December last year, then rising and in an uptrend channel area. The pair is currently testing the key FR50.0% resistance at 92.70. A successful break would mean a continuation of the upside pattern for AUDJPY with the next resistance at 94 (FR 61.8%) and 96 (FR 78.6%), which intersects the top line of the uptrend channel. If pressured, it could fall back and test the 100-day SMA, then 91.40 (FR 38.2%; bottom line of the rising channel) and 89.70 (FR 23.6%).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Larince Zhang and Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Offices

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd February 2023.

Market Update – February 23 – On Pins & Needles For Nothing.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US Stocks held lower but pause the decline, US Dollar spiked to 104,50 and Yields richened on short covering following the recent rout, but ended off of the day’s lows as FOMC minutes fail to provide fresh clues to alter expectations on the path. The 10-year was down 3.7 bps to 3.916%.

FOMC minutes solidified views for further hikes and a higher funds rate through the year. Fed funds futures are suggesting some increased risk for a 50 bp increase at the March 21-22 meeting with the implied rate at 4.878%. May is showing a 5.132% rate, with June at 5.30%. The peak is still seen in July at 5.358%. One notable factor in the market, however, is a 5.02% rate is now priced in for January 2024.

*USDUSD Index slightly below 104.51, hovering around 23%. The market has fully priced in further rates hikes with a 25 bp increase on March 22, and another 25 bp on May 3.
*USDJPY – hovering around 134.70-134.90.
*USDStocks – wavered narrowly through the session before closing either side of unchanged with the US100 (0.13%), US500 (-0.16%), US30 (-0.26%).
*USDMixed earnings news: Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (#PXD.s) reported $7.8bn record profits in 2022 — more than triple its previous record of $2.1bn the previous year. Pioneer is becoming the latest oil producer to reap the rewards of high oil prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ExxonMobil (#XOM.s) brought in a record $56bn. Rolls-Royce beats forecasts with 57% profit rise. BIDU -2.63% hopes its own artificial intelligence-powered chatbot will put the company back on the path to growth. Baidu stock is up 26% so far in 2023. Nvidia surged almost 9% after the bell.
*USDBank of Korea holds interest rates steady for first time in a year.
*USDCommodities – USOil dropped to $73.80 as IEA Europe’s energy war with Russia is not over, warns IEA. Also on geopolitics as Biden meets eastern european leaders, stresses unity, Chinese diplomat lauds Russia ties in Putin meeting.  Brent crude posted its biggest single-day loss in 7 weeks. Markets reassess positions after the US Federal Reserve stoked worries about the economy by suggesting further rate hikes ahead.
*USDGold – steady above $1817 for more than a week.
*USDCryptocurrencies – BTC – rebounded to $24,350.

Today - Europe and Japan are to release annual inflation data, US Prelim GDP and unemployment claims, while Alibaba will also release its earnings.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium drifts to1450. MAs extend lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative, RSI 30.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th February 2023.

Market Update – February 28 – End Of Month Account Balancing.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

After the worst week since September for stock markets last week, on Monday the US and Europe markets closed flat and end of month profit taking and account balancing has tipped Asia into the red today. The USD tested 2023 highs (105.35) yesterday but is lower today.  Overnight: Japan reported strong CPI (3.15), Housing and Retail Sales data AUD Retail sales picked up (1.9% vs. -4.0%) and GER Import prices were weaker than expected as energy prices continue to decline.

*USDFX – USD Index tested into 105.35, just 4 pips shy of the 2023 high yesterday, back to 104.75 now. EUR tested lows at 1.0530 before recovering 1.0600, JPY breached 136.00 & trades at 136.606 now. Sterling rose over 0.98% yesterday (1.2070), its biggest daily gain in more than seven weeks. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a deal with the European Union on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland. Back to 1.2035 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets held on to gains after a strong open. (+0.22% to +0.63%) Movers – #TSLA +5.46% & Zoom gained +7% after hours on strong outlook. US500 0.31% (12.20) 3982,  US500 FUTS 3979 now.

*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures dropped to test  $75.00 lows, yesterday, before recovering to  $76.25 today. Gold – tested the support level at $1805 yesterday before recovering to $1810 now. 
*USDCryptocurrencies  – BTC – Back to test $23k again today from last week’s rejection of $25k.

Today - French & Spanish Prelim. CPI, Swiss KOF, Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Cunliffe & Fed’s Goolsbee.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.28%). Declined to 0.6130 yesterday before recovering to 0.6180 and back to 0.6145 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 38.60, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00637.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd March 2023.

Market Update – March 2 – ISM Price Hikes & Higher Yields dent sentiment.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues to hold onto recent gains despite US10yr Yields hitting to a four-month top of 4.018% and ISM Manu. prices spiking to 51.3, a five-month high, from 44.5 in January. US Stocks closed lower and this has rippled into Asian markets. TSLA day disappointed with no new vehicle announcements, #TSLA shares fell -5.6% after hours. Kashkari was as Hawkish as ever & Fed Fund Futures now have a 50 bp hike at 33% &  a terminal rate in the 5.50%-5.75% range. Overnight: Japanese Capital Spending fell less than anticipated and Consumer Confidence failed to meet expectations but remains at 5-month highs too. Australian building approvals collapsed -27.6% from +15.3%.

*USDFX – USD Index tested back to 104.00 before recovering to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but rejected an advance to 1.0700, holds at 1.0635 today. JPY is back to Tuesday’s top at 136.80 from a test below 135.50. Sterling enthusiasm continued to evaporate breaching and breaking the key 1.2000 zone again today, trading at 1.1970 now.
*USDStocks – The US markets slipped again (+0.02% to -0.66%). Movers – #NVAX -25.92%, CAT +3.81% & HAL -3.53%. US500 –0.47% (-18.76) 3951,  US500 FUTS lower again at 3928 now.

*USDCommodities – USOil – Futures tested to  $77.70 yesterday and again today before dipping to $77.35 now. Gold – rallied again yesterday to $1844 but trades at $1830 support now. 
*USDCryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested to  $24k resistance yesterday and holds $23.3k now.

Today - EZ CPI (Flash) & Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Japanese CPI, BoE DMP & ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Kashkari, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%). Rallied from 135.50 yesterday to 136.80 now, as US Yields rally and JPY weakens, next resistance at 137.00. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 69.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.168, Daily ATR 1.210.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.