Date 21st August 2023.

Market Update – 21 August – PBOC disappoints, markets quiet.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

APAC stocks traded mixed as the disappointment from China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rates overshadowed its recent support efforts; Hong Kong underperformed. PBOC opted for a narrower-than-expected cut to the 1-year LPR alongside a surprise hold on the 5-year LPR, which is the reference rate for mortgages. PBOC and regulators met with bank executives and told lenders to boost loans to support the economic recovery instead. Meanwhile Country Garden has been delisted from the Hang Seng as the real estate sector in China crumbles before our eyes.

US500 futures were little changed on Sunday night after another losing week for the major averages: US100 closed the week lower about 2.6%, down for a third straight week for the first time since December. Meanwhile, the Dow closed the week lower by 2.2%, its worst streak since March. And the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and posted its third consecutive losing week, which hadn’t happened since February. German PPI are just out, showing another consistent decline, but Unions at Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf offshore gas platforms on Sunday announced plans to strike as early as September 2nd, sending EU Natural Gas +18% this morning. On the inflation side we also have Japan, which is set to increase minimum pay by a record amount as inflation takes hold and 200 cargo ships are stuck waiting to cross the Panama Canal Water as shortages caused by the worst drought in 100 years have forced the canal operators to reduce the flow of traffic, which could have consequences for the global supply chain also as a result of what appears to be a still strong American consumer market.

Panama channel congestion real time

*FX – USDIndex is steady above 103 (103.32 now) and well above its 50-200 MAs; USDJPY found support above 145 (145.45 now), USDCNH heading north (7.33). NZDUSD keeps drifting lower (as does AUDUSD) after the Trade Balance data. Cable flat and lateral (1.2690 – 1.2765).
*Stocks – US and EU Futures are flat, Hong Kong slides again (-1.60% at 17631) despite Country Garden delisting.
*Commodities – USOil keeps recovering some ground, currently +0.61% at $81.88, the same for Copper steady at $371.20 after rebounding from the trendline last week.
*Gold – flat at $1,889 as is Silver ($22.75).

Today: No more relevant data after PBOC rate decision and German PPI earlier this morning.

Interesting Mover: VIX (-0.27%) @ 18.45, is pulling back after having tested its 200MA on Friday (Opex day); It’s finally back above the area that has been support after 2020 and should consolidate here. A move to the upside would have the 20.50-22 area as the next target.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 23rd August 2023.

Market Update – August 23 – Waiting for Nvidia, PMIs & Jackson Hole.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

On a day when Monday’s optimism had already faded in US markets, weighed down by both a new downgrade of the banking sector’s credit rating – this time by S&P – and the pullback of NVDA, one of the most interesting movements was the USD. Without any real news flow and without any abrupt movements in the bond market, the US currency appreciated steadily throughout the day – slowly but surely – especially against the currencies of the European continent (the YEN was saved from the selling and this is another piece of news). This was a purely technical movement, without any important levels being vulnerable – an adjustment of flows – but the EURUSD for example fell 97 pips from the highs to the lows of the day. All this on the day that the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg started, there was talk of ”inevitable de-dollarisation’‘ and President Putin assured that the trade in USD between the constituent countries is now only 28%. Back on the corporate side, retail is showing much more mixed results than the official stats show: yesterday MACY‘s dropped 14% after reiterating its conservative outlook, while LOWE‘s rose 3% after beating expectations; Nike has been down for 8 consecutive sessions, its worst streak ever. Today will see Peloton, Foot Locker, SPAM and especially NVIDIA after the close: implied volatility in the options market is for an 8.8% move after the results. Today is PMI day, tomorrow the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off.

*FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.42 after rebounding on its 200 MA yesterday; EURUSD sitting on its ST support (1.0855), CABLE 1.2748, YEN eked out a gain yesterday and is now trading at 145.667. USDCNH < 7.30.
*Stocks – US and EU Futures higher (+0.28% US30/+0.56% US100/+0.42% US500/ +0.34% GER40); China50 -0.59% despite good BAIDU earnings results.
*Commodities – USOil is below $80 ($79.54 now), UKOil relatively stronger at $83.87.
*Gold – Rising at $1904.41, XAG outperforming (-1.17% at $23.67).

Today: HCOB PMIs Composite, Manufacturing, Services in Germany, France, Europe, SP PMIs in UK, US, Home Sales in US, European Consumer Confidence.

EURUSD, 30 mins

Interesting Mover: EURUSD (+0.12% @ 1.0859) hovering around the support area of 1.0840/1.0855 after falling from a high of 1.0930 to a low of 1.0832 yesterday. MA 200 at 1.08.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 25th August 2023.

Market Update – August 25 – Powell at Jackson Hole, inflation mission not accomplished yet.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US equity markets pulled back strongly yesterday with US30 having its worst day since March, US100 its second worst in August and US500 swinging down $105 from the daily high to the daily low and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern. The mighty NVDA started trading up 6.50% and ended the day +0.10%; JPN225 leads losses in Asia this morning (-2%). Yields rose and USD strengthened. Markets are cautious before today’s Jerome Powell intervention at the Jackson Hole symposium. The general consensus is that he will try to stay neutral, with no big surprises but a slight tilt to the hawkish side. Nothing similar to last year of course: but the FED does not think its fight against inflation is won yet and the strong economic data give it some room to act. Some energy prices have started to rise again lately – see Oil or Gasoline – but also Rice and Pork Belly are getting extremely expensive: the Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August’s figures will show a noticeable jump. It’s not time to declare ”mission accomplished” yet.

There has been some chatter about R* lately: this is the neutral interest rate of an economy, a mostly academic concept difficult to calculate and around which, incidentally, Powell developed his first speech in Jackson Hole in 2018. Nick Timiraos is a WSJ journalist who is known to be very close to the FED and in a recent article he brought up the subject of if the long-term neutral rate had not moved up in the US. Just yesterday, the WSJ also published an article wondering whether it was not time for the Fed to move the inflation target towards 3%. Is this perhaps a test of the reaction of the most informed and sophisticated investors? The Fed in June capped the R-Star at 2.5%: who knows if Powell will say anything about that and if there will be any news in September.

We shall see at 14:00 GMT.

*FX – USDIndex > 104 (104.12), EURUSD below its 50MA at 1.0783, GBPUSD 1.2570 (-0.24%), USDJPY 146.06, USDTRY pulling back (26.52) after the big drop yesterday following the hike to 25%.
*Stocks – US100 closed -2.19%, US500 -1.35%, US30 -1.08%; NVDA +0.10%, TSLA – 2.88%, MSFT -2.15%, AAPL -2.62%, META -2.55%, GOOGL -2.09%.
*Commodities – USOil in green for a second day, +0.65% at $79.36, Palladium keeps falling (-0.82% after yesterday’s -2.88%).
*Gold – $1913, XAG -0.35% slightly above $24.

Later Today: Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, German IFO, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, ECB’s Lagarde speech. German GDP out at -0.2% y/y.

Interesting Mover: US500 (-1.35% the cash close @ 4376) gave up $105 (or roughly 2.5%) from the intraday high after testing from the downside the 50d MA and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 29th August 2023.

Market Update – August 29 – Stock markets supported by China hopes and falling yields.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasuries and Wall Street rallied to kick off the last week of the month for what’s been a pretty bearish August. The same stands so far today. Rate hike fears amid a “higher for longer” policy stance, supply concerns, worries over spillover from slowing growth from China, mixed earnings, and fading AI enthusiasm helped knock bonds and stocks lower through August. But with yields having climbed to 16-year highs and much of the threat from still-hawkish monetary policy priced in, shorts covered and dip buyers emerged.

Treasury yields declined across tenors, with the 2-year dropping to slightly below 5%. The auctions of 2- and 5-year Treasury notes Monday drew the highest yields since before the 2008 financial crisis, a reflection of the US bond-market selloff that deepened last week in anticipation of another rate increase by the Federal Reserve. This is the first 5% handle and the highest award rate since July 2006.

This morning, the Japan unemployment rate for July came in higher than expected & German GfK consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since May. Pessimists far outnumber optimists and the full breakdown, which is only available until August, showed that the assessment of income expectations deteriorated markedly. Not a positive report and the disappointing numbers tie in with the weakness in business confidence readings. Overall GDP growth is expected to contract this year and political headlines at home are not helping to lift the mood. The ECB seems to be expecting a soft landing though, so those numbers don’t necessarily mean that the ECB will pause next month, as the hawks seem to favor getting any additional hikes that may be needed out of the way.

*FX – USDIndex weakened against the G10 and dipped to 103.73 overnight, EURUSD spiked to 1.0837 (strong resistance area at 1.0840) , GBPUSD holds gains at 1.2617 and USDJPY sideways at 146.27-146.75. – Goldman sees Yen falling to 1990 levels if BOJ stays dovish!
*Stocks – The US100 advanced 0.84%, with the US500 up 0.63% on broadbased gains. Of note, this is the first back-to-back gain for August. The US30 was up 0.62%. NVDA +1.78%, Alphabet +0.87%, 3M +5.22%, GS +0.84%, DIS +0.96%, AAPL +0.88%, AMD +0.35%. European stocks made a positive start today, tracking positive momentum around the world.
*Commodities – USOil up by 0.35% to $79.55.
*Gold – rose 0.2% to $1,925.75.
*BTCUSD rose 0.3% to $26,054.53, ETHUSD rose 0.2% to $1,649.81.

Today: US Housing Price Index, Jolts & Consumer Confidence.

Interesting Mover: EURAUD (-0.26%) broke below 1.6800, with a bearish cross of 10- and 20-period EMA extending lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 31st August 2023.

Market Update – August 31 – Markets sustain the “Bad News Is Good News” stance.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight, with mainland China bourses underperforming. Chinese manufacturing contracted in August for a 5th straight month, while Chinese property stocks fell after Country Garden, once the country’s largest developer by sales, reported record losses and China Vanke cancelled a share placement. China’s property sector is dealing with a renewed liquidity crisis. Country Garden on Wednesday reported a $7bn first-half loss, its worst ever. European stock futures are higher, also helped by upbeat reports from UBS. French inflation numbers were much higher than anticipated.

German retail sales disappointed again. Sales dropped -0.8% m/m in July. Expectations had been for a slight rise, after the two consecutive months of contraction. Consumer confidence also deteriorated again in data released yesterday, and high inflation and rising debt financing costs are still curtailing consumption.

*FX – USDIndex recovered to 103.25 from 102.84 lows, EURUSD turned to 1.0889 from 1.0949, GBPUSD steady at 1.2700 and USDJPY lifted to 146.30 with the Yen still close to the weakest level in over nine months as markets continue to test the resolve of officials to keep the currency underpinned.
*Stocks – The US100 surged 1.74%, while the US500  advanced 1.45%, with the US30 up 0.85%. The US500 rose for a 4th straight session, the first time since the end of July. And it broke resistance at 4440 to extend the move to 4495. UBS reports huge 2Q profit skewed by Credit Suisse takeover, foresees $10B in cost cuts.
*Commodities – USOil sideways at 81.44 failing o break the 61.8% Fib. level from the August downleg.
*Gold – Spiked to $1,949.

Today: Eurozone CPI readings are likely to surprise on the upside, which will boost rate hike bets. Also the July income, consumption, and PCE deflator numbers will be scrutinized, along with weekly jobless claims.

Key Mover: XAUEUR (+0.51%) retests 2-month Supply Zone at 1785-1795.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th September 2023.

Market Update – September 4- The first full week of a historically negative month for Stocks and Gold kicks in.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday’s NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August

Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday’s rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech

INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th September 2023.

Market Update – September 6 – Saudis, Russia extend voluntary production cuts.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US stocks fell on Tuesday – with the exception of the US100 – weighed down by higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields. Saudi Arabia will extend its 1 million barrel per day voluntary oil production cut until the end of the year, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency, and the cut adds to the 1.66 million barrels per day that other OPEC members have put in place until the end of 2024. Russia, through its Deputy Prime Minister Novak, also pledged to extend its 300k bpd cuts until the end of December, and will review the measure on a monthly basis. UKOil traded above $90 till a few minutes ago (now $89.84) and USOil went as high as $88 at some point yesterday. This was immediately reflected firstly in US yields, which rose 6bps on the 10-year, and the USD also benefited. The phantom of inflation may not yet be vanquished with the main raw material of our energy-intensive societies rising by 30% in just over two months. Stocks have fallen: airline and cruise stocks obviously suffered but all sectors except Energy, Technology and Consumer discretionary went down. European indices also dropped as economic data for the region came in mixed. Eurozone producer prices fell 7.6% in July from a year ago. But business activity in August dropped at the steepest rate in nearly three years. Overnight the Australian GDP figure showed a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, but was less marked than expected.

Sectorial Etf Performances

*FX – USDIndex hit its highest level since 10 March, now at 104.64. USDJPY at 2023 highs, 147.08 now but traded as high as 147.815. USDCNH slides to 7.31 but previously touched 7.325. EURUSD -0.61% at 1.0737 now close to critical levels, GBPUSD at 1.2581 with its price clearly below a trendline.
*Stocks – Flattish Chinese indices, JPN225 +0.77% at 33227, AUS200 -0.75%. US Futures all aligned at -0.07% right now, EU Futures -0.2%/-0.3%. Yesterday Materials -1.85%, Industrials -1.68%, Utilities -1.22%.
*Commodities – USOil touched $88.05, trading at $86.50 right now; UKOil rose as high as $91.12 now at $89.83.
*Gold – pressured again, -0.56% yesterday now flat at $1926. XAG dropped -1.67%, further down -0.33% at $23.45 now.

LATER TODAY: Germany Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US Trade Balance, PMIs, Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision, Fed Beige Book.

INTERESTING MOVER: USOil added another +0.84% ($86.7) to its more than 2 month long 30% rally. Resistances at $88.5/$89 and $92.5/$93 areas, support in the $83.5/$84 area. MACD, RSI positive, Price above 50d-200d MAs that recently crossed to the upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th September 2023.

Market Update – September 8 – Japanese & EU GDP miss, CNH breaks 2023 lows.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Friday as Japan released revised second quarter gross domestic product figures (+1.2% vs +1.3% expected, down from 1.5%) and Hong Kong cancelled the morning trading session due to a storm warning. Overnight the US100 fell for a 4th session, weighed by Apple after a report that China is allegedly banning government workers from using iPhones; NVDA, AMD, Qualcomm slipped as well. US30 managed to edge up 0.17% as defensive sectors outperformed (Utilities the best one). Initial Jobless claims fell to 216k last week, below estimates and hinting to a still tight job market after last week’s streak of data. Unit labor costs rose 2.2% (1.9%). A ”positive” note came from Walmart that announced it is lowering its workers entry pay. EU GDP and employment change in Q2 disappointed yesterday and EU stocks are down for the 7th day in a row. German CPI/HICP is just out, in line (CPI +6.1% y/y).

This morning a poll of 69 economists interviewed by Bloomberg showed that the majority of them (39) are seeing an ECB pause in September, with some odds (33) of a new hike by the end of the year. Finally, USDCNH is trading at 7.3528 and has broken 2023 highs the day after CNY did so, showing the Chinese authorities are giving up protecting the 7.30 barrier.

*FX – USDIndex -0.20% at 104.82 retreated back below 105, EURUSD sits in the low 1.07s, Cable lingers below 1.25 and USDJPY trades on a 147 handle (147.15).
*Stocks – EU Futures +0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 +0.14%, US100 +0.31%, AAPL – 2.92%, AMD -2.46%, Qualcomm – 7.22%.
*Commodities – USOil -0.36% at $86.43, UKOil loses $90, $89.59 now. Strikes began at Australian Chevron LNG plants.
*Gold – +0.38% at $1926.80, XAG +0.82% at $23.15, Palladium +1.15% at $1228 is trying to rebound from 2023 lows.

LATER TODAY: Canadian Unemployment Rate, Fed’s Bostic & Barr.

INTERESTING MOVER: Apple -2.92% at $177.56 is down -6.54% in 2 sessions on heavy volumes after US-China tech-related tensions arose again.  It managed to recover the $176 level after opening at 175.18 and hitting a low at $173.54. The MACD is neutral and RSI slightly below 50. Price is between the MM50 ($186.50) and MM200 ($164).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12 September 2023.

Market Update – September 12 – Greenback rebounds ahead of US Inflation.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street closed slightly higher amid strength in big tech. Tesla climbed 10% after Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook on the stock based on expectations on the impacts of the “Dojo” computer.  Treasuries posted small losses amid a lack of buyers. Bloomberg suggested it was the smallest range on the 10-year in over 2 years. The 10-year was up 2.5 bps to 4.295%. It was generally contained by the 4.30% level as well as the 4.34% cycle peak from August 21, the highest since late 2007. Today, European futures are higher, US futures slightly lower, as markets wait for US inflation numbers.

This morning: UK wage growth higher than expected – a bit of a negative surprise for the BoE. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged, jobless claims nudged up 0.9K in the more up to date August report and the July reading was revised down. Mixed signals for the BoE about the overall situation in the labour market, but it seems payroll growth is slowing, which ties in with survey data from the PMI reports. Despite this, wage growth remains uncomfortably higher and the data would back at least one more rate hike from the BoE this month. BoE’s Mann warns against early end to tightening cycle.

*FX – USDIndex lost a little ground, albeit after 8 straight weeks of gains, currently at its lows at 104.63 from 104.37. EURUSD drifted to 1.0725 from 1.0768 and GBPUSD higher after the data at 1.2529. USDJPY higher at 146.85 but Yen holds yesterday’s gains.
*Stocks – The US100 rallied 1.14% on the back of a surge in big tech. The US500 was 0.67% and the US30 was 0.25% firmer. JPN225 also jumped nearly 1%, but elsewhere across Asia the move higher was muted and China bourses traded narrowly mixed, with the CSI 300 down -0.1% and the Hang Seng rising a mere 0.1%. European futures are higher.
*Disney and Charter gained. Both stocks climbed after reports of a deal to restore channels including ESPN and ABC to the cable operator’s subscribers. Warner Bros. Discovery also rose.
*Nvidia fell. The chipmaker edged lower, extending a rocky September. Advanced Micro Devices also declined. J.M. Smucker shares fell after the snack giant agreed to buy Twinkies owner Hostess.
*Commodities – USOil higher as attention shifts to outlooks from OPEC & US.
*Bitcoin rose after dropping to the lowest since June on Monday

TODAY: The Apple product event, German ZEW Economic Sentiment. OPEC and US EIA will both publish monthly market reports later.

Key Movers: BTCUSD rallied by +2.77% today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th September 2023.

Market Update – September 14 – A hotly contested day ahead!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

CPI was a little hotter than expected, but not enough to alter expectations that the FOMC will skip hiking rates at its meeting next Wednesday. And the report did not change views that the door is open for a tightening in November, but it still not any more than a 50-50 bet. Treasuries went into the CPI data priced for upside risks and Yields spiked on the 0.6% jump in headline and the 0.3% gain in the core, which resulted in respective y/y rates of 3.7% and 4.3%. However, yields quickly dropped back and closed richer on the session amid short covering. Today, Asian stocks inched higher as investors shrugged off stronger than expected US inflation figures and anticipate the ECB decision.

The ECB meeting takes place today with reports that the updated staff projections will push the 2023 inflation forecast above 3% having boosted bets of another 25 bp hike. A hawkish pause would not be a surprise, but we think there is a slightly higher chance that the ECB will move again this week, especially considering the likely upward revision to the inflation forecast and the most recent rise in energy prices.

*FX – USDIndex is at 104.60. EURUSD mixed but lower in EU session at 1.0733 from 1.0754 and USDJPY holds above 147.00 floor, eyeing 148.
*Stocks – The JPN225 surged 1.4% to 33,168.10, US500 edged up to 4534, US100 jumped to August ceiling and the US30 failed to extend above 35k, as Stocks and bonds were supported ahead of ECB and US data.
Stocks of airlines were some of the biggest losers in the US500 after a couple warned of the hit to profits they’re taking because of higher costs. United Airlines sank by 3.8% and 2.8% for Delta Air Lines. On the flipside, Amazon climbed 2.6%, Microsoft gained 1.3%, and Nvidia rose 1.4%. Moderna rallied 3.2% after it reported encouraging results from a flu vaccine trial.
*Commodities – Oil well supported as markets focused on the prospect of sustained supply tightness this year. USOIL is at $88.60, recovering from $87.60 lows.

Today: ECB rate decision & Press Conference, US Retail Sales and PPI.

Key Movers: XAGUSD (-1.18%) broke 5-day range, extending the September’s downleg, with attention turning to 22 and 21 Support level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th September 2023.

Market Update – September 18 – Central Banks Week kicks off.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A week that will be marked by meetings and decisions of practically all the world’s most important central banks is off to a slow start, with US futures fractionally up (+0.08% / +0.15%) after Friday’s drubbing. It was a decisive day for the weekly trend, sending both the US500 and US100 into negative territory for the second time in a row: only the US30 managed to close the week at +0.1%. The tech sector was the hardest hit, -2.2%, led by the Oracle debacle, -10%. On the other front, Utilities outperformed, +2.8%. This was on Friday, when the Nasdaq sank -1.75% and the US500 posted -1.22%: two factors contributed to this bad performance. First, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came out at 67.7, below expectations and well below its historical average, which is close to 86. This Index accounts for 2/3 of the US economy and is therefore a valuable indicator of the overall state of affairs there. The other major event that certainly helped the declines to be heavy was the UAW strike, for the first time simultaneously at the Ford, GM and Stellantis plants: the demands are for wage increases of up to 40% and the impact of such news on the perception of future inflation can be worrying. Today is poor in data, but from tonight Central Banks Week kicks off with the minutes of the latest RBA meeting and from Wednesday night onwards all the big central banks will cascade. The FED decision will be made on Wednesday evening.

Since the 3rd week of August, Antipodeans + CNH have relatively outperformed

*FX – USDIndex -0.12% at 104.86; Antipodeans are relatively stronger with AUDUSD +0.23% and NZDUSD +0.31%, this comes also on the back of USDCNH <7.30 (7.28 now). GBPUSD sits at 1.24, EURUSD +0.13% at 1.0673.
*Stocks – US Futures fractionally higher (US500 + 0.15%, US100 +0.22%, US30 +0.12%); GER40 futures are turning negative right now (-0.03% at 15869), CAC is -0.05%. Last Friday, META and NVDA sunk >-3%, Microsoft -2.50%.
*Commodities – USOil is trading close to 10-month high at $91.60, UKOil puts $95 in sight.
*GOLD – +0.32% at $1929, XAG +0.73% at $23.20.

Today: highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index, Bundesbank Monthly Report, remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB de Guindos & Panetta.

Key Movers:  XAUUSD (+0.22% @ $1928.09) is in a very tight range between its 50d and 200d MAs and close to the upper bound of a descending channel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th September 2023.

Market Update – September 20 – FED will stay on hold; Dot Plot, SEP are key.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

In a day that will be centred around the Fed’s deliberations this evening, and above all the quarterly economic projections, the new dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, we start with China where the PBoC just now left its benchmark rates unchanged, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. The Central Bank touted the strength of the national economy and said it has ample policy room as analysts bet on future rate cuts. Still in Asia, the Japanese trade balance fell 66.7% in August, coming in at 930.5 billion yen compared with the 2.79 trillion yen deficit a year ago: a smaller-than-expected but still 17.8% drop in imports contributed to this improvement. Yesterday saw the USD suffer badly up to the US open, with the USDIndex at -0.4% at one point and particularly weak against currencies such as the CAD, before recovering most of its losses and closing flat: the EURUSD was back below 1.07 as was the Cable below 1.24. US yields returned to new highs across the curve, on the 2, 5 and 10 year, the latter two being the highest levels since 2007. Stocks and indices closed in the red, led by the US30.

Another extremely interesting movement was that of oil, which saw Brent crude come within a hair’s breadth of $96 and Crude above $92, at very strong resistance levels tested several times last year, before falling back profusely: at the moment, the US blend is trading at $90.35.

FED’s current Dot Plot, representing Members’ rates forecasts

Tonight is the Fed meeting and there is a 99% probability that the official rate will remain in the 5.25%-5.50% range. But September is also the meeting where the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be renewed and the new Dot Plot will be released: these will be key points to understand what will happen next. On the other hand, it is possible that Powell will do everything he can during the conference to reiterate to the markets that they should not think they know what he and the other board members will do in the coming months.

*FX – USDIndex flat at 104.82; EURUSD +0.05% @ 1.0685, GBPUSD -0.30% @ 1.2355, USDCAD +0.06% @ 1.3456, USDJPY flat @ 147.88, USDCNH 7.308.
*Stocks – US Futures are lower to flat (US500 -0.04%, US100 -0.10%, US30 +0.01%); GER40 is +0.10%, FRA40 -0.09%. EV maker TIO tumbled -12%.
*Commodities – USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, UKOil is trading at $93.44 after getting close to hitting $96 last night.
*GOLD – flat @ $1931.

Today: Highlights include UK CPI, PPI, Retail PI (JUST OUT, much better than expected), German PPI, US Mortgage applications, EIA Weekly Oil Stocks Change, FED INTEREST RATE DECISION, FOMC ECONOMIC PROJECTION & PRESS CONFERENCE.

Interesting Mover: USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, perfectly pulled back after reaching a key resistance level at the $92.20 area, drew a spinning top and is dumping overbought levels on the RSI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.