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Forex Software → Market Analysis → Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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1,201 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCHF: the Swiss franc continues to lose ground against the US dollar

A rise in US industrial production and retail sales could drive the USDCHF rate up to 0.9040. More details in our analysis for 17 December 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

  • SECO economic forecasts for Switzerland

  • US retail sales (m/m): previously 0.4%, projected at 0.6%

  • US industrial production (m/m): previously -0.29%, projected at 0.10%

  • USDCHF forecast for 17 December 2024: 0.9040

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 17 December 2024 takes into account that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release updated economic growth forecasts today. The previous forecast, published on 19 September 2024, expected GDP growth of 1.1%, significantly below the average. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%, and the 2025 outlook was reduced to 0.7%. Today’s SECO report will provide the latest data on economic conditions and the outlook for 2025.

The forecast for 17 December 2024 suggests that US retail sales may rise to 0.6%. Actual data may differ from expectations; however, increased sales in November may support the US dollar.

US industrial production is also projected to rise to a positive level from the previous -0.29%, with the forecast for 17 December 2024 suggesting a production level of 0.10%. Although this is a modest increase, it may instil hope in investors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,202 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) remains within the range: the Fed is in the spotlight

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating around 2,650 USD, with the market awaiting news from the Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 18 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: Gold (XAUUSD) remains flat without any news from the Federal Reserve

  • Current trend: the asset’s prospects depend on the Federal Reserve signals for 2025

  • XAUUSD forecast for 18 December 2024: 2,690.00 and 2,735.25

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices hover around 2,650 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday.

Consolidation is a natural development ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed’s December meeting will conclude this evening. The baseline scenario suggests a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut. The market will look for clues about how the Fed intends to act in 2025 amid multiple uncertainties around monetary policy and the country’s economy.

Gold prices have risen 28% this year, which could be the highest annual gain since 2010 by the end of the year. This was primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing, demand for safe-haven assets, and systematic purchases of Gold by global central banks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,203 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD declines after Powell’s comments

The EURUSD rate retreated sharply to 1.0350 following the US Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent comments from Jerome Powell. Find out more in our analysis for 19 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25%

  • Stock markets are in negative territory, while the US dollar strengthens after the Fed’s decision

  • EURUSD forecast for 19 December 2024: 1.0400 and 1.0330

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% following its two-day meeting on 17-18 December. The decision was expected, but subsequent comments from the regulator’s chief and new economic forecasts adversely affected the stock market (the S&P 500 index fell by 3% at once), strengthening the US dollar against all other currencies.

The US dollar strengthened mainly due to the Fed’s revision of its inflation outlook for 2024 and 2025. Inflation is projected to run at 2.4% at the end of 2024, up from 2.3% in the September release. The Federal Reserve expects inflation in 2025 to be 2.5%, up from 2.1% in the previous forecasts.

At a press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the Fed’s current policy does not negatively affect the economy, allowing the regulator to adopt a more cautious approach to future actions. The Fed wants to see a tangible slowdown in inflation before implementing the next rate cut.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,204 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The AUDUSD pair appears weak, but there are signals for recovery

The AUDUSD pair declined to 0.6223, and recovering from the two-year low will not be easy. Find out more in our analysis for 20 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The AUDUSD pair remains at a two-year low

  • The market is confident that the RBA is closer to an interest rate cut, which could happen as early as February 2025

  • AUDUSD forecast for 20 December 2024: 0.6239 and 0.6288

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6223 on Friday. The pair remains at a two-year low and appears relatively weak from a fundamental perspective.

The market believes the Reserve Bank of Australia will soon be ready for its first rate cut amid slowing economic activity. The rate could be lowered as early as February 2025, with the current level at 4.35% per annum. The minutes of the RBA’s previous meeting, due in December, may provide further insights into these plans.

Externally, the AUD remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. This driver became more influential after the Federal Reserve announced its cautious plans to lower the interest rate next year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,205 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: uncertainty in the BoJ actions weakens the Japanese yen

The USDJPY rate reversed from the support level, with the current price at 156.55. Discover more in our analysis for 23 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to uncertainty regarding a Bank of Japan interest rate hike

  • Americans’ income rose by 0.3% in November, with spending increasing by 0.4%

  • The core US PCE Price Index increased by 2.8% year-on-year

  • USDJPY forecast for 23 December 2024: 157.85 and 160.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rises on Monday, holding above the key resistance level at 155.95. The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid persistent uncertainty regarding the timing of a potential BoJ interest rate hike.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept the rate unchanged, citing the need to carefully analyse wage changes, global economic uncertainties, and the impact of the new US administration on the economy.

Meanwhile, Americans’ incomes increased by 0.3% from October, while spending rose by 0.4%. Analysts had forecasted higher figures of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

The core PCE Price Index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation risks, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the October reading. This is the most substantial growth since April; experts had expected it to accelerate to 2.9%. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that robust US inflation data will help strengthen the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,206 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Brent attempts to regain ground after a decline

Following a decline, Brent crude oil is attempting a recovery, with a potential growth target of 73.00. Discover more in our analysis for 24 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

  • Brent crude oil futures show growth on the London Stock Exchange

  • Market participants anticipate a pre-New Year rally

  • Brent forecast for 24 December 2024: 73.00 and 72.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil continues to strengthen amid a reduction in global hydrocarbon reserves.

Brent prices are experiencing moderate growth on 24 December 2024, following slight declines in the previous days. This morning, February futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange increased by 0.35 USD (0.48%), reaching 72.98 USD per barrel.

Analysts attribute this growth to the recovery from the previous decline and market participants’ expectations ahead of the upcoming holidays, which could lead to lower trading volumes and increased volatility.

Nevertheless, the market remains concerned about an economic slowdown in China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, and the strengthening of the US dollar. All these factors could exert pressure on prices in the near term.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,207 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 488

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) holds steady above 2,600 USD

XAUUSD quotes are experiencing slight volatility this week, remaining firmly above the 2,600 USD support level. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 27 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: Gold is trading within a limited range due to the holiday week in Europe and the US

  • Current trend: consolidating within a sideways range

  • XAUUSD forecast for 27 December 2024: 2,640 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

Gold is set to end this week with moderate gains, having returned to the area above 2,600 USD following a recent downward correction. The decline was driven by the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will pause its monetary policy easing cycle in early 2025.

Overall, XAUUSD maintains a confident position, rising about 30% this year. Gold continues to benefit from demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and monetary easing policies pursued by global central banks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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