EURUSD Took A Break. Overview for 07.02.2022

The major currency pair slowed down a little bit after skyrocketing earlier.

EURUSD reached stability after strengthening last week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1421.

Last Friday, the US reported on the labour market for January. The data was a little bit mixed but still showed that the sector was doing fine.

For example, the Unemployment Rate report raised some questions – it showed 4.0% after being 3.9% in the previous month. We may assume that it was just an adjustment for seasonal fluctuation and nothing more. The Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 467K, an excellent result, considering that the expected reading was just 110K. Another positive thing is that the December report was revised upwards, from 199K to 501K.

The Average Hourly Earnings added 0.7% m/m and that’s also better than expected.

The statistics confirmed that the US labour market was stable. This fact may help the US Fed to make decisions on tightening its monetary policy.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Aussie is rising. Overview for 09.02.2022

AUDUSD is keeping its positive momentum. 

The Australian Dollar is growing against the USD on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7162.

At the moment, the Aussie is quite strong but only because the USD is weak.

This week, Australia released some macroeconomic reports. For example, the NAB Business Confidence showed 3 points in January after being -12 points the month before. It’s good news, although one should admit – the indicator remains extremely volatile.

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment was -1.3% in February after showing -2.0% in January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is currently discussing its strategy for 2022. The regulator hasn’t announced any rate hikes so far – investors are interested in this information as much as they were eager to know about the US Fed’s plans.

One of the former members of the RBA said that the regulator should raise the rate four times this year, because one rate hike made no sense. He believes that the rate might reach 1% at the end of 2022, with the first hike taking place in August.

At the same time, there is an opinion that the salary growth dynamics might remain rather slow. This might prevent the RBA from being more aggressive with its monetary policy.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Pound is falling – who’s to blame? Overview for 11.02.2022

GBPUSD remained volatile and got under pressure on Friday.

The British Pound is falling against the USD on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3552.

The United Kingdom released a lot of macroeconomic reports today and investors had no choice but respond.

The British GDP in December 2021 dropped 0.2% m/m after adding 0.9% m/m in November. It’s bad but the expected reading was even worse, -0.5% m/m. On QoQ, the preliminary GDP report showed 1.0% in the fourth quarter against the expected reading of 1.1% – may be due to the weak December number.

The Industrial Production in the UK added 0.3% m/m in December, better than expected but still behind the November reading (1.0% m/m). The Construction Output expanded by 2.0% m/m after adding 1.9% the month before and against the expected reading of -0.6% m/m. The Manufacturing Production increased by 0.2% m/m after expanding by 1.1% in November.

The production parameters are rather unstable, probably due to vague prospects with regard to the pandemic. In December, it was still unclear when London would remove social restrictions. Now, with the restrictions removed, the statistics for January is expected to be rather neutral, while the February report may show positive numbers.

The Pound enthusiasts may try to find support in this data, although it wasn’t significantly strong. The key aspect that is against the Pound right now is the local strengthening of the American currency.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Yen is very active. Overview for 15.02.2022

USDJPY is rising on Tuesday; the asset is more volatile than usual.

The Japanese yen is falling against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 115,61.

The pair has been more volatile than usual recently. The reason for this is a constant revaluation of external risks.

According to the data published today, the preliminary GDP reading for Q4 2021 showed 1.3% q/q, which was worse than market expectations of 1.5% q/q. On YoY, the indicator showed 5.4% against the expected reading of 5.8%. 

Most likely, the indicator turned out to be weaker than expected due to consumption and household spending.

The final report on the Japanese Industrial Production showed -1.0% m/m in December, the same as expected. On YoY, the indicator added 2.7%, while the Capacity Utilization dropped 0.4% m/m against the expected growth of 1.6% m/m.

However, the Yen will be in demand as a “safe haven” asset if global inflation continues rallying.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

EURUSD is following the statistics. Overview for 17.02.2022

The major currency pair is falling a bit on Thursday after rising the day before. 

EURUSD is slightly retreating on Thursday after adding some weight in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1360.

The Retail Sales in the US added 3.8% m/m in January after losing 2.5% m/m in the previous month and against the expected growth of 2.1% m/m. The Core Retail Sales added 3.3% m/m against the expected reading of 1.0% m/m.

The Industrial Production in the US expanded by 1.4% m/m in January after reducing by 0.1% m/m in December and against the expected reading of 0.4% m/m. The Capacity Utilization Rate went from 76.6% to 77.6% over the same period of time.

On one hand, this data might as well be a correction of the weak December reports. On the other hand, the data might have improved due to the increased demand and consumption. That’s good news.

The US Fed released its FOMC Meeting Minutes. As a rule, market players look through the document to find any hints at the regulator’s future moves. However, what they are interested in right now is details.

The document said that the majority of the policymakers believed that the Fed should continue to reduce the monthly pace of net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Still, if inflation does not move down as expected, it will be appropriate to tight monetary policy at a faster pace.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

EURUSD remains neutral. Overview for 21.02.2022

EURUSD is consolidating at the beginning of a new week.

The major currency pair is looking neutral on Monday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1357.

Market players are obviously saving their strengths while watching the global market – politicians are making too many moves. It means that the demand for “safe haven” assets may go up at any moment. However, if the situation remains calm, investors’ risk attitude may improve pushing the Euro upwards.

Today is a holiday in the US – the country is celebrating Presidents’ Day.

However, the economic calendar is full of events from the Euro Area. The alliance and Germany are scheduled to report on the Manufacturing/Services PIMs. All reports are preliminary and show the February data. The first sector is expected to improve only a little, while the second one may go up more significantly.

In addition to that, Germany will release its monthly Buba Monthly Report. One should admit that the latest statistics in this report were quite positive. The document may contain positive conclusions about the country’s economic state. It might support the Euro.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

EURUSD is back inside its range. Overview for 23.02.2022

EURUSD remains active; the asset is getting back inside its range. 

The major currency pair keeps responding to the external background changes. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1354.

The demand for the “greenback” as a “safe haven” asset remains high; however, investors are no longer overreacting and the global market is reaching stability.

The statistics published yesterday showed that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence in the US dropped to 110.5 points in February after being 111.1 points the month before. The actual reading is weak but market expectations were much worse.

The components of the report show that the Present Situation Index increased to 145.1 points, while the Expectations Index dropped to 87.5 points.

The preliminary data on the Markit Manufacturing/Services PMIs showed 57.5 and 56.7 points in February after being 44.5 and 51.2 points respectively in the previous month.

The numbers are quite strong but they definitely include corrections after the January decline due to the coronavirus.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

EURUSD is trying to rise. Overview for 25.02.2022

EURUSD got much weaker but keeps on trying to rebound.

The major currency pair is taking a shot at rising. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1184.

Investors are still interested in the “greenback” as a “safe haven” asset.

The second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021 showed 7.0% q/q, the same as expected, against the previous estimate of 6.9% q/q. It’s good news – the American economy did an excellent job at the end of the year.

The weekly Unemployment Claims report showed 232K after being 249K the week before. Improvements in the labour market is a positive signal.

The New Home Sales showed 801K in January after being 839K in December and against the expected reading of 800K. As a rule, the start of the year is not very active for the real estate sector, February and March will be more insightful.

Later today, market players will focus on the January data from the US, such as the Durable Goods Orders, the Personal Spending/Income. Personal Spending is expected to expand pretty much and this might be excellent news.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Aussie is rising. Overview for 01.03.2022

AUDUSD is growing after the RBA kept its monetary policy intact.

The Australian Dollar is quickly rising against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7264.

The way the March meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia went was quite predictable. The benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at 0.10%, just as expected. In the comments, the regulator reminded that it wasn’t going to raise the rate until inflation reached stability in the range of 2-3%.

The Australian economy is estimated as stable, although the expenses increased after another coronavirus wave. Salaries are growing but this is considered a stabilisation process after the decline earlier. The RBA says that salaries will rise gradually.

It’s still unclear how much time it will take to eliminate supply disruptions. This factor is the key one in the inflation prospects issue.

These rather neutral and standard comments of the Australian regulator were met in a positive way. The Aussie is going up.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The “greenback” is in demand. Overview for 03.03.2022

EURUSD remains under pressure amid high demand for “safe haven” assets. 

The major currency pair remains weak. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1103.

As it usually happens early in the month, the economic calendar is very eventful and offers a lot of data. For example, the CPI in the Euro Area showed 5.8% y/y in February after being 5.1% y/y the month before. The Core CPI was 2.7% y/y against 2.3% y/y in the previous month.   

The pricing environment may be the factor that will force the ECB to revise the benchmark interest rate.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed 475K in February after being 378K in January. It’s funny that the January data was revised upwards, from -301K to +509K – it’s been the biggest revision in many years.

As a result, employment remains quite stable but the sector is still experiencing some problems with labour supply. The reason is the pandemic.

Last night, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke to Congress. He said that the regulator was ready to raise the rate by 50 basis points if inflation remained high. The indicator is expected to reach its peak this year and then reach stability.

As a matter of fact, investors got clear signals of what the Fed is planning to do, and it’s good for the “greenback”.

Прогнозы по другим инструментам смотрите в разделе "Форекс-прогнозы и анализ" на нашем сайте.

EURUSD is at the lows. Overview for 07.03.2022

EURUSD continues falling and has already updated the lows of May 2020.

The major currency pair continues plummeting. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0871.

The demand for the USD as a “safe haven” asset in the currency market remains high. Moreover, the statistics published last Friday gave the “greenback” a significant boost.

For example, the Unemployment Rate in the US dropped to 3.8% in February after being 4.0% in the previous month. Market expectations were quite promising and optimistic but the actual reading turned out to be even better. The Non-Farm Payroll showed 678K after being 481K in January and against the expected reading of 407K. at the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings didn’t change after adding 0.6% m/m (revised data) the month before and against the expected reading of 0.5% m/m.

What does all this mean? First of all, the labour market will easily handle the Fed’s monetary policy tightening that is scheduled this month, such as a 25-point rate hike. The US regulator now may continue raising the benchmark interest rate until the end of 2022 to get inflation under control. Secondly, market players are quite happy with the data and may continue supporting the “greenback”.

The NFP report, which turned out to be much stronger than expected, gave the USD a significant boost. In the mid-term, the American currency is expected to rise, thus making EURUSD fall.

Later today, the economic calendar will offer some data, and the report worth paying attention to is the Consumer Credit in the US. It may provide insight into the population’s finances.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

The Aussie intends to rise. Overview for 10.03.2022

AUDUSD has been “in the black” for the second week in a row despite natural disasters.

The Australian Dollar is actively strengthening against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7336.

One reason is that the improvement in global geopolitics has a positive influence on traded currencies. Another supporting factor comes from a well-diversified Australian economy and solid trade and economic relations with China.

However, the AUD rate barely responded to a national emergency over flooding in two states, New South Wales and Queensland. Federal and state governments have already faced anger from the population for not acting faster to help residents.

The national emergency will allow the federal government to intervene more directly.

The Aussie is now more focused on high oil and gold prices, as well as increasing inflation in China.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.