EUR/USD is showing bullish signs, USD/JPY could resume decline

EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2000 and 1.2080 resistance levels. USD/JPY is currently recovering, but it might decline again if it fails to clear 104.30.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many hurdles near 1.2050 and 1.2080 to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.2177 on FXOpen before starting a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2100 level, but the pair remained well bid near the 1.2080 zone.

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Gold Price Showing Bearish Signs While Oil Price Outperforms

Gold price failed to surpass the $1,875 resistance and started a fresh decline. Conversely, crude oil price traded to new multi-month high close to $48.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh decline below the $1,870 and $1,850 levels against the US Dollar.

• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold.

• Crude oil price surged above the $46.75 resistance and traded as high as $47.82.

• There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,800 support zone against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,840 and $1,850 resistance levels to gain bullish momentum.

However, the price struggled to clear the $1,875 resistance. A high was formed near $1,875 on FXOpen and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear break below the $1,855 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The price even broke the $1,840 level and traded close to $1,825. The price is currently consolidating above $1,825. The recent swing high was near $1,849 before the price declined to $1,829.

It is currently trading above the $1,832 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low. On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $1,840 level.

Moreover, there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold. The triangle resistance is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low.

A successful close above the triangle resistance, $1,840, and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level.

Conversely, the price could continue to move down below the $1,830 and $1,828 levels. The next major support is near $1,810, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline towards $1,780. Any further losses could lead the price towards the $1,750 support zone.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price remained well bid above the $44.00 and $45.00 levels against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $45.50 to move further into a positive zone.

The bulls remained in action and there was a clear break above the $46.75 resistance. During the rise, there was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

The price even broke the $47.20 resistance and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded close to the $47.85 level and a high is formed near $47.82.

Recently, there was a downside correction below the $47.50 level. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the downside, the previous resistance near $46.75 is acting as a strong support. The next major support is near the $46.50 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $47.25 level. A close above $47.25 might set the pace for a fresh leg higher towards the $48.00 level.

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ECB Disappointed Markets – Why?

Last week’s main event, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, disappointed the market. The central bank pre-committed to ease the financial conditions already from October, but the markets remained with the feeling that the ECB did not do enough.

Yes, the central bank further eased the policy – it extended the Quantitative Easing (QE) program and offered better terms on its TLTROs. However, it was less than the market expected. Moreover, the market pushed the EURUSD exchange rate above the 1.20 level a week before the ECB, and the central bank did not give any clue that it is bothered by the move.

What Was Priced In?

The market expected the PEPP program, which basically is the QE program during the pandemic, to be extended by June 2022. Instead, the ECB extended it only by March 2022. The three months between the two dates when the ECB will not buy bonds represent a tightening rather than easing. As such, the market took the message as hawkish rather than dovish.

Moreover, the new TLTRO conditions for commercial banks to get access to the funds are tougher. In other words, few commercial banks will be able to meet the ECB’s terms so that they will get the funds needed. As a result, the ECB managed to deliver another hawkish message during a dovish statement.

Finally, the central bank suggested that it expects inflation to reach 1.2% in 2023, using the “core” approach, the one that does not consider energy prices. But that is well below the 2% threshold established by its mandate and may suggest that the ECB has a problem bringing inflation below but close to the target.

How About the EURUSD?

The EURUSD and a strong Euro represent such a problem. It is economics 101 that a stronger currency weighs on inflation. Thus, the ECB would have an easier task of reaching its inflation-targeting mandate if the Euro will not be that strong. In particular, the EURUSD is an ongoing concern for the ECB.

However, by only delivering more easing measures wrapped in hawkish statements, the ECB does nothing but fueling a stronger EUR. As such, we should not be surprised by the fact that the EURUSD rate at the 2020 highs two days after the ECB press conference ended.

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EUR/USD Approaching Key Resistance, USD/CHF Remains At Risk

EUR/USD is trading in a positive zone above 1.2100, but it is facing hurdles near 1.2170. USD/CHF is struggling to hold the 0.8850 support and it could decline heavily.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.2050 and 1.2100 resistance levels against the US Dollar.

• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

• USD/CHF remains in a bearish zone below the 0.8950 and 0.8920 resistance levels.

• There are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Euro remained in a positive zone above the 1.2050 support zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.2100 resistance to move into a positive zone.

The upward move was such that the pair broke the 1.2120 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.2165 and 1.2170 levels.

The recent high was formed near 1.2168 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2155 level, and the pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high.

The decline found support near the 1.2145 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high is also acting as a support.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair could gain bullish momentum once it clears the 1.2165 and 1.2170 resistance levels.

Conversely, there is a risk of a downside break below the trend line and 1.2145. The next major support is near the 1.2120 level. Any more losses could spark a major decline below the 1.2100 support zone in the coming sessions.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a major decline below the 0.8950 support zone against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair even settled below the 0.8900 level to move into a bearish zone.

The decline gained pace below the 0.8880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now consolidating above the 0.8850 support level, with a bearish angle. The recent low was formed near 0.8850 before the pair corrected above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 0.8865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low is also near 0.8865.

More importantly, there are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart. The pair must climb above 0.8865 and 0.8870 to increase the chances of a decent recovery.

The next major resistance is near the 0.9000 and 0.9005 levels. Conversely, a clear break below the 0.8850 support may perhaps open the doors for a larger decline.

The next major support is near the 0.8820 level, below which the pair could test 0.8800. Any further losses could lead USD/CHF towards the 0.8750 support level in the near term.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set New Multi-Month Highs, Dips Likely Limited

AUD/USD extended its rise above 0.7500 and traded to a new multi-month high above 0.7600. NZD/USD also followed a similar path and climbed towards the 0.7200 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.7500 and 0.7550 resistance levels against the US Dollar.

• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

• NZD/USD climbed higher nicely and surpassed the 0.7150 resistance level.

• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few weeks, the Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path after a proper close above 0.7350 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7500 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

The upward move gained pace above the 0.7550r resistance and the pair settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even spiked above the 0.7600 level and it traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7639.

Recently, there was a minor downside correction below the 0.7620 level. The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high.

The pair is now testing the 0.7600 support level. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is near the 0.7600 zone and acting as a strong support.

The next major support is near the 0.7590 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high is also near the 0.7590 level to provide support.

If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7575-0.7580, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7550 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7620 resistance zone.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7640 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7680 level.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar also followed a bullish path above the 0.7000 pivot level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7100 resistance zone.

The pair climbed above the 0.7150 level and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7170 before starting a downside correction.

There was a break below the 0.7150 level. The pair even broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high.  The pair is now approaching the key 0.7120 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high.

If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7080 and 0.7050 support levels. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7150 and 0.7160 resistance levels.

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Financial Markets at Risk as the Virus Locks Europe Down

The markets opened with a bearish tone as there is a new turn of events on the pandemic course. Over the weekend, the news that a new virus’ variant circulates in the United Kingdom caused panic in Europe. According to the UK authorities, the new variant spreads faster, and that poses a risk for the period ahead.

Quickly after the announcement, several European countries suspended their flights to the United Kingdom, in a move that signals the harsh lockdown in place in Europe. As such, the market is at risk of declining due to the lack of liquidity characteristic this time of the year.

The Fed Remains Dovish

Last week’s main event was the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Fed chooses to do nothing at this meeting, but it kept a dovish tone.

During the press conference, the Fed’s Chair Powell said that the central bank reopened the USD swap lines and that it will keep the Quantitative Easing (QE) program at the same pace of $120 billion. Much of the focus of last week’s meeting was to see if the Fed hints at changing the focus of the bond-buying. So far, the focus was on shorter-term maturities, but rumors in the market suggested that the Fed may switch to longer-term maturities.

By targeting longer-term bonds, the Fed aims at lowering the yields further, in a move destined to ease financial conditions even more. However, it did not do so, but it hinted that it represents a tool it may use in the future.

Risk-Off Market Moves

Moving forward, there is the danger of a risk-off move that could grip markets this week. In a risk-off, the USD rises, and the stock market falls. Risk-off market moves are coordinated and have the tendency to affect all markets in a correlated manner. In other words, it does not matter what market one is trading, as they are all affected.

Because the USD is the world’s reserve currency, how it trades this week is key to risk. As such, expect a more volatile trading week than otherwise.

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EUR/USD and USD/JPY Approaching Next Crucial Breakout

EUR/USD corrected lower after it struggled to clear the 1.2250 resistance level. USD/JPY is trading above 103.20 and it is likely setting up for the next major move.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro seems to be facing a strong resistance near 1.2250 and 1.2260.

• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2160 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

• USD/JPY is rising steadily and it is well above the 103.20 support level.

• There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near 103.45 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, there were swing moves in the Euro above 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a couple of attempt to gain strength above 1.2250 and 1.2260, but it failed.

The recent swing high was formed near 1.2256 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh decline. There was a break below the 1.2200 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.2180 support, but it stayed above the 1.2150 zone.

A low is formed near 1.2152 and the pair is currently rising. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2256 high to 1.2152 low.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 1.2200 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2256 high to 1.2152 low is also near 1.2205.

A clear break above the 1.2200 resistance zone could lead the pair towards the main 1.2230 level and a connecting bearish trend line. Any more upsides might increase the chances of a break above 1.2260.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2165 support. The main support is near the 1.2150 zone, and a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2160 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A break below the trend line support could lead the pair towards the 1.2100 level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a fresh increase from the 103.00 support zone against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair broke the 103.20 zone to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 103.50 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent high was formed near 103.73 before the pair started a downside correction.

There was a break below the 103.55 level. The pair also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.31 low to 103.73 high. It is now trading near a major support at 103.45. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with support near 103.45 on the hourly chart.

If there is a downside break below the trend line, there is a risk of a larger decline towards the 103.20 and 103.00 levels.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 103.65 level. A clear break above the 103.65 zone is needed to start a steady rise towards the 104.00 and 104.20 levels.

Any more gains could lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 104.50 level, where the bulls are likely to face a strong resistance in the near term.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Gains Bullish Momentum

EUR/USD gained bullish momentum and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.2290. EUR/JPY is also showing positive signs and trading nicely above the 126.80 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro started a strong increase above the 1.2150 and 1.2200 resistance levels.

• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2235 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

• EUR/JPY followed a similar pattern and broke the main 126.65 resistance.

• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 126.35 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Euro remained in a positive zone above the 1.2080 and 1.2120 levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2200 resistance zone to move further into a positive zone.

It settled nicely above the 1.2220 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was an upside continuation above the 1.2250 level. The pair traded to a new multi-month high at 1.2294 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating gains.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.2280 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.2236 swing low to 1.2294 high.

The first major support is near the 1.2270 level. The next support is near the 1.2265 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.2236 swing low to 1.2294 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2235 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2220 level in the near term. On the upside, the 1.2300 zone is likely to act as a major resistance. A clear break above the 1.2300 zone could open the doors for a steady increase in the coming days towards 1.2340 or 1.2350.

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro also followed a bullish path above 126.00 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke the main 126.65 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

There was also a close above the 126.80 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. To start the current increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 126.35 on the hourly chart.

The pair traded as high as 127.23 before correcting lower. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 126.04 swing low to 127.23 high.

There is a currently a contracting triangle forming with resistance near 127.00 zone. A clear break above the 127.00 and 127.10 levels could open the doors for a sharp increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be near the 127.50 level.

Conversely, there could be a downside break below the triangle support at 126.85. The next key support is near the 126.65 level (the breakout zone). It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 126.04 swing low to 127.23 high.

If the pair breaks the 126.65 support zone and the 50 SMA, there are chances of a push down towards the 126.20 support zone. The next major support sits near the 126.00 zone.

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Bitcoin Rollercoaster Price Action Continues

Bitcoin held the headlines into the end of the trading year. It rose from $10,000 in October to $35,000 in late December, tripling in value in less than two months.

Much of the advance, though, came in low liquidity and when “no one was looking”. Just like in 2017 when Bitcoin reached close to $20k, the advance in late 2020 happened during the thin trading environment caused by the end of year holidays.

What Causes Bitcoin Bullishness?

Recently, more and more institutional investors turn to Bitcoin. Viewed as a safe-haven asset and a store of value that competes with gold, the digital alternative investment opportunity offered by Bitcoin appeals to more and more people.

Scarcity is one attribute that many investors value. As the number of Bitcoins is limited, the scarcity makes it possible for the price of it to advance so fast and so aggressive.

But the same is valid in downturns. As 2021 just started, Bitcoin is down 15% from the highs, trading below $29k at the time of writing this article after it was as high as $35k in late December. Anyone happy with such drawdowns should not have any problem in owning Bitcoin – though few investors are willing to take such an asset into a professional portfolio.

Risks for Bitcoin

The risks for Bitcoin moving into 2021 trading come from regulation. We saw at the end of last year’s trading that Ripple suffered from the SEC in the United States initiating a lawsuit against its founders, causing the price of Ripple to collapse instantly. If the allegations of illegally selling securities are extended to other crypto assets, the risk is that Bitcoin will suffer from collateral damage too.

Already at this point, many public companies and institutional investors announced huge investments in Bitcoin. We talk about billions, as MicroStrategy is just an example of a company that invested most of its treasury in Bitcoin.

Should the price of Bitcoin continue to retrace from the highs, some weak hands may be forced to liquidity. This may also be exacerbated by a possible reversal in the USD. If that happens, then Bitcoin has more room to correct.

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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Correct Lower

GBP/USD extended its rise towards 1.3700 before starting a downside correction. EUR/GBP is showing positive signs and it could surge if it breaks the 0.9050 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound traded towards the 1.3700 zone, where it faced a strong selling interest.

• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3580 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

• EUR/GBP started a fresh increase and it broke the 0.9000 resistance zone.

• There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 0.9045 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, there was a steady increase in the British Pound above the 1.3500 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3600 zone to continue higher.

The pair gained momentum above 1.3620 and it even spiked above the 1.3700 resistance. A new multi-month high was formed near 1.3703 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction. It traded below the 1.3650 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There was a break below a key rising channel with support near 1.3680 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. It opened the doors for more losses and the pair dived below 1.3600. It traded as low as 1.3540 and it is currently correcting higher.

There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3703 high to 1.3540 low. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3580 on the same chart.

On the upside, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 1.3620 level, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 1.3650 zone. A clear break above the 1.3650 zone is needed for a fresh move towards 1.3700 or even higher.

Conversely, the pair could break the trend line support and continue lower below 1.3580. The next major support is at 1.3540, below which the pair could test the 1.3500 support.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro traded as low as 0.8931 before it started a fresh increase against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8980 and 0.9000 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

The pair gained pace above 0.9000 and it even settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key downward move from the 0.9092 swing high to 0.8931 low.

The pair even tested the 0.9050 resistance zone, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key downward move from the 0.9092 swing high to 0.8931 low.

On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 0.9045 on the hourly chart. The main resistance is near the 0.9050 level. A clear break above the trend line resistance may possibly increase the chances of a strong rise towards the 0.9100 level.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline. The main support is forming near the 0.9000 area and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a downside break below the 0.9010 and 0.9000 support levels, the pair could continue to move down towards the 0.8950 level in the near term.

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Gold Price Trims Gains While Oil Price Turns Bullish Above $50

Gold price started a downside correction after surging towards $1,960. Conversely, crude oil price is following a strong bullish path and it settled above $50.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh increase towards $1,950-$1,960 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.

• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,920 on the hourly chart of gold.

• Crude oil price surged above the $48.00 resistance and it even broke the $50.00 barrier.

• There is a key rising channel forming with support near $50.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,910 resistance level against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,925 and $1,950 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

The price even traded close to the $1,960 before it faced sellers. A swing high was formed near $1,959 on FXOpen before the price started a downside correction. There was a sharp decline below the $1,950 and $1,940 levels.

During the decline, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,920 on the hourly chart of gold. The price traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,872 swing low to $1,959 high.

It even settled below the $1,920 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It seems like the price is approaching the $1,905 and $1,900 support levels. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,872 swing low to $1,959 high might also provide support.

Any more losses could lead the price towards the $1,880 support level. Conversely, the price could attempt a fresh increase above the $1,915 and $1,920 resistance levels.

A successful close above the $1,920 and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price started a steady rise after it broke the key $48.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $50.00 to move further into a positive zone.

The price even broke the $51.00 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new multi-month high near $51.26 before starting a downside correction. It declined towards $50.50 level and it is currently rising.

There was a break above the $50.80 resistance. The price recovered above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $51.26 high to $50.43 low.

It is now trading above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $51.26 high to $50.43 low. Therefore, there are high chances of a break above the $51.20 and $51.50 resistance levels in the coming sessions.

On the downside, an initial support is near the $50.80 level. There is also a key rising channel forming with support near $50.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

If there is a downside break below the channel support trend line, the price could decline towards the $50.00 support level. The next major support sits near the $49.55 level.

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The USD Reverses Course as the NFP Misses Expectations

Last week brought some troubling events in the United States, as protesters took the Capital by assault. Lives were lost, and the nation faces an identity crisis.

Shortly after the order was restored, President Trump recognized President-elect Biden’s victory and ensured people that there would be a peaceful transition of power on the 20th of the month when the new administration takes charge.

But it was too little too late. In the meantime, Twitter suspended the President’s account, and America is on a race to identify each and every one of the protesters.

As such, the economic data paled in the face of the political events. However, the USD did move, as it seems that it reversed course, easing from the highs.

What Did the NFP Show?

The NFP report released last Friday showed the data for the month of December 2020. The U.S. economy lost 140k jobs, much worse than the expectations of adding 60k.

Unsurprisingly, the leisure and hospitality sectors were responsible for most of the job losses, as the pandemic continues to take its toll. However, the November numbers were revised higher, and the unemployment rate remained stable, somehow diminishing the impact of the December report.

ISM Manufacturing Above 60

One of the most striking pieces of economic data released last week was the ISM Manufacturing. It climbed above 60, and most of the time, when it did so in the past, the dollar strengthened in the following one hundred days.

The thing is that all investment houses predict a lower dollar in 2021. Whenever such a consensus exists, the danger is that exactly the opposite happens.

So far, the dollar reflected the risk-on environment, as it moved hand in hand with the U.S. equities. As the new administration prepares to run America, the dollar may be in the grasp of a sharp reversal.

The EURUSD is already down two big figures from the highs, and AUDUSD and GBPUSD correct as well. If the dollar’s strength continues, the world risks being caught on the wrong side of the market, as most traders are positioned for a weak dollar.

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