European Stock Markets on All-Time Roll Despite Economic Bleakness

There has been so much clamour over the past few months relating to the flagging European economy and stagnating British economy compared to the surprisingly healthy economic situation in the United States that it would be very easy to get buried in the deluge of news articles displaying woe which have been accompanied by a rising US Dollar against a declining Euro and Pound.

However, to write off the European economy as second fiddle to that of the United States purely on the grounds of a rising Dollar, some return to form for tech stocks and a relatively mediocre set of meeting notes from the Federal Open Market Committee, which reiterated the lack of a reduction in interest rates for the near future, would be churlish, to say the least.

On the European side of the Atlantic, a more thorough inspection of the overall market conditions would soon put the flagging Euro and mainstream media speculation of recession into perspective.

Over the past few weeks, European stocks have been increasing in value to the extent that some indices have registered an all-time high.

The CAC 40 index in France concluded the European session yesterday at 7,960.8 according to FXOpen charts, which is an all-time record high for the index, which comprises the 40 most highly capitalised stocks listed on French stock exchanges.

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AAPL Share Price Rises Nearly 1% after Scrapping Electric Vehicle Plans

In 2021, the release of an electric car from Apple was expected in 2025, in 2022, the deadline was shifted to 2026. As it became known yesterday from Bloomberg and WSJ, Apple decided to completely abandon the project.

Causes for this decision:
→ the electric vehicle market turned out to be not so turbulent;
→ production and technological difficulties;
→ the strong development of electric vehicle construction in China may also have played a role.

Some employees will be fired, others will be transferred to a more promising department related to developments in the field of AI. Despite the fact that the ambitious project, which lasted about 10 years, failed, the price of AAPL shares rose by almost 1% yesterday as a result of trading — perhaps investors positively assessed the reorientation from electric vehicles to a more promising direction related to AI.

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Brent Crude Oil Makes Sudden Rally As OPEC Countries Mull Low Output

Crude oil is a particularly unusual substance in that it is one of the only consumable commodities that institutions and private individuals widely trade across the spectrum of global markets, and it is a staple component as an energy resource in most aspects of everyday life, yet its value is maintained by a cartel made up of the central governments of the nations that extract it from the earth.

This combination of completely unique circumstances and operational conditions means that the requirement for crude oil to perform its task as a basis for fuels combined with the method by which the OPEC+ countries are able to control its price via aligning to reduce or increase production and distribution makes for an interesting marketplace.

This week, news surfaced across mainstream media around the possibility that the OPEC+ countries may consider an extension of the reduction in crude oil production and supply that is currently in place.

The current level of production and supply that has been set by the OPEC+ countries is subject to a reduction, which was agreed on in November 2022 during a meeting of the OPEC+ nations led by the Russian Federation. At that time, a reduction of approximately 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day was agreed. However, this week, there has been some thought that the OPEC+ nations may consider extending this reduced amount of production into the second quarter of this year.

Fuel prices have steadily been rising on the consumer side, meaning that the cost of refined fuel oils has had to factor these reductions in, and perhaps motorists may have noticed that unleaded fuel and diesel oil for road vehicles have crept up in price very slightly over the past month or so, however, should the extension of a reduced output take place, the wider effect could make its way onto the financial markets, where oil is traded as a commodity.

Over the course of the past day, US Brent Crude Oil has risen in price dramatically. According to FXOpen charts, Brent Crude Oil concluded the trading day on February 26 at $80.51 per barrel, whereas it begins the trading day today at $82.24 per barrel.

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The American Currency Resumes Its Growth

The American currency, despite a rather multidirectional fundamental data, resumes growth at the end of February. In the main currency pairs, one can observe both rebounds from key levels and continuation of the main trends. Thus, the USD/CAD pair managed to strengthen above 1.3500, the GBP/USD pair lost about 100 pp after rebounding from 1.2700, and EUR/USD buyers failed to strengthen above 1.0900.
USD/CAD

Fluctuations in the oil market contributed to the strengthening of the USD/CAD pair. At the beginning of the week, sellers of the pair tried to break the support at 1.3400, but, as we see, were unsuccessful. Yesterday, the price on the USD/CAD chart not only strengthened above 1.3500, but also updated the current year’s maximum at 1.3580. If the pair's buyers do not lose their upward momentum, the price may strengthen to 1.3770-1.3700. The upward scenario may be cancelled by consolidation below the level of 1.3400.

Today, we can expect increased volatility in the pair. At 16:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on Canadian GDP for the fourth quarter of last year. At the same time, the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures in the US for January and indicators on applications for unemployment benefits for the current week will be published.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Struggles While USD/CAD Aims Higher

GBP/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 1.2600. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for a move above the 1.3580 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 resistance zone.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2665 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.

• USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3545 support zone.

• There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3580 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2700 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2650 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even traded below 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2600 level. A low was formed near 1.2612 and the pair is now attempting a short-term recovery wave.

There was a fresh upside above the 1.2620 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2681 swing high to the 1.2612 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2681 swing high to the 1.2612 low at 1.2650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 1.2665 level.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2665. A close above the 1.2665 resistance might spark a decent recovery wave. The next major resistance is near the 1.2700 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2750 resistance in the near term.

Initial support sits near 1.2620. The next major support sits at 1.2610, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2540.

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Price of Gold Briefly Exceeded $2,050 per Ounce

In addition to new records in the stock markets, the reaction to yesterday's news about inflation in the US was also a decrease in government bond yields and a rapid rise in the price of gold — the cost of XAU/USD jumped by 0.9% in just one hour, while the day's high exceeded USD 2,050 per ounce .

However, on Friday morning the price of XAU/USD dropped below USD 2,040 – did market participants misjudge the impact of US inflation on the price of gold?

XAU/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of gold is in a downward trend (shown in red);
→ yesterday, the price not only touched the psychological level of USD 2,050, but also reached the upper limit of the downward red channel. That is, both lines acted as a block of resistance, which appears to be a serious obstacle to the upward impulse (shown by blue lines).

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WTI Oil Price Reaches 4-month High against the Backdrop of OPEC+ Decision

On Friday, the price of a barrel of WTI crude oil exceeded USD 80 per barrel due to the decision to continue the policy of reducing oil production by OPEC+ countries.

Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it would extend oil production cuts until June to “maintain stability and balance in oil markets,” an official statement said. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also said they would also continue cuts.

NYT writes that the decision was expected. At the same time, the price of WTI oil exceeded USD 80 per barrel on Friday for the first time since the beginning of November 2023.

The price chart for WTI oil shows that the market has been in an upward trend since mid-December - the price has formed an upward channel (shown in blue). In addition to the OPEC+ policy, the strength of demand is also supported by:
→ uncertainty in the military conflict between Hamas and Israel;
→ facts of attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea.

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Swiss Franc Weakens after Inflation News

Inflation in the country fell in February to its lowest level in nearly two-and-a-half years, data from Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office showed on Monday. Although consumer prices rose 1.2% compared to a year earlier, there is reason to believe that inflation is slowing down compared to the 1.3% recorded a month earlier.

Reuters writes that the Swiss National Bank has kept inflation rates within the target range since May 2023, despite rising rents, sales taxes and energy prices. And the latest news makes it more likely that the SNB will cut rates at its next meeting, scheduled for March 21.

Thus, market participants can expect a looser policy and an affordable franc — which is why the CHF has weakened against a number of currencies. For example, the EUR/CHF rate has reached its highest level since November 2023.

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NASDAQ Rally Shows Tech Stocks Are Back in Focus - But for How Long?

The NASDAQ index, well known as a premier listing venue for North American technology companies across the entire spectrum from the Silicon Valley giants to recently listed newcomers, has been going from strength to strength during the beginning part of this year.

At the beginning of January, the NASDAQ was resting at a relatively low point in the mid-16,300 range and has since risen to 18,318.7 at the high points of the trading day in New York yesterday, according to FXOpen pricing.

This is a considerable increase, and apart from a few small dips along the way, it has been consistent for the majority of the first quarter of the year so far.

Yesterday's trading was of great interest to those with a keen penchant for US tech stocks, as the NASDAQ's high point of 18,318.7 represented an all-time record for the index, clearly demonstrating that these days, there is a clear distinction between enthusiasm among traders for NASDAQ-listed companies compared to two years ago when there was a sustained period of low value across NASDAQ listed stocks.

Those times are gone, and the halcyon days are back. However, the euphoria subsided slightly as the trading day came to a close yesterday during the US session, as the NASDAQ, despite a rallying group of technology stocks tied to the artificial intelligence boom keeping the values high, began to make a slight climbdown from its historic high.

Trading will begin today with the NASDAQ index standing at 18,129.1 according to the bottom of the candlestick on FXOpen charts, which is still high compared to the entire history of the NASDAQ index apart from the levels it reached during yesterday's trading.

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After Updating the Historical High, the Price of Bitcoin Collapsed by 14%

Bitcoin's previous all-time high price, recorded on November 10, 2021, was around USD 68,900 per coin (depending on exchanges).

But yesterday, the price of Bitcoin exceeded 69k! However, the jubilation from the new historical peak quickly gave way to fear — as the BTC/USD rate began to fall rapidly. From peak A to low B – the price traveled a path of more than -14% in just 5 hours.

These events highlight 2 characteristic features of the cryptocurrency market:
→ Excessive volatility, which is not typical for the stock and foreign exchange markets. For comparison: on October 19, 1987 — Black Monday — the S&P 500 index fell by about 20.5%. After this incident, there were no days when the drop exceeded 14%.
→ Emotionality of the market and the importance of psychological levels. At these levels, the price of Bitcoin often makes false punctures. Yesterday, there were 2 such punctures: a false bullish puncture of the 2021 top, and a false bearish puncture of the round level of 60k dollars for Bitcoin.

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The Price of Gold XAU/USD Sets a Historical Record Exceeding $2160 per Ounce

The previous high was around USD 2,135, but gold rose above USD 2,160 an ounce this morning, reaching its highest level ever, as Treasury yields weakened on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates.

In a speech yesterday, the Fed chief offered no clarity, saying it would likely be appropriate to ease policy restrictions "at some point this year."

Traders now see a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of gold is in an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ after a false breakout of its lower border, the price confidently overcame the downward trend line (shown in red) and resistance 2,090;
→ a strong upward impulse led to the RSI indicator entering the extreme overbought zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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• Swiss Franc Weakens after Inflation News #CHF

• USD/CAD Analysis: Canadian Dollar Strengthens after Bank of Canada Decision #USDCAD #CAD

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