October 23. US exchanges are trading in positive territory on forecasts for state aid

According to the trading data, the main US stock indexes on Friday are mainly growing against the background of how investors assess the prospects for a new package of support for the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.13% to 28399.19 points, the NASDAQ high tech index fell 0.13% to 11,490.58 points, the broad market S&P 500 index rose 0.27%. up to 3462.8 points.

Investors also continue to monitor the situation around the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held on November 3. The final debate between Republican candidate Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump ended yesterday. According to the poll, Biden won the final debate.

Internal statistics had an additional impact on the US stock market. Composite index of business activity (PMI) in October, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.5 points from 54.3 points in September. The PMI index in the services sector increased over the reporting month to 56 points against the September estimate of 54.6 points. Analysts expected the indicator to remain at the same level. At the same time, the PMI in the industry rose to 53.3 points from 53.2 points, growth was expected to 53.4 points.

October 28. Bank of Canada has kept the rate at the same level of 0.25%

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.25%. Earlier, the head of the Canadian Central Bank, Tiff Maclem, said that the rate would remain unchanged for at least two years amid a slow economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.

Representatives of the regulator also noted that in the next two years, the country's economy will experience excess supply, which will lead to keeping inflation below the target level (2%) until 2022. Also, the central bank stressed that the recovery process of the Canadian economy will be long and uneven.

The Bank also raised its growth forecast for the third quarter to 47.5% on an annualized basis. He also predicts stronger annual growth in 2020, although he lowered his forecast for 2021.

November 2. Oil prices fall amid new quarantine measures in Europe

World oil prices fell to $36 a barrel Monday morning on concerns over demand following the announcement of new quarantine restrictions in Europe. However, during the day the asset managed to recover, the current Brent quotation is $37.50.

Experts note that the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus is forcing the authorities of European countries to take additional quarantine measures, which negatively affects expectations for economic recovery and oil demand.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on October 31 stricter quarantine measures from November 5 to December 2. In the region, measures are being introduced that are actually similar to the spring lockdown. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on Saturday also announced the start of the second lockdown from November 3. Germany from Monday to the end of November switches to the «soft» lockdown for the second time since the beginning of the pandemic.

At the end of October, another government decree came into force in Italy, providing for new measures to combat coronavirus. In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced the introduction of a nationwide quarantine from October 30.

Analysts note that the quarantine measures announced in the UK and Italy only exacerbate the negative situation in Europe.

November 5. Bank of England expands government bond buyback program to £ 875bn

Today a meeting of the Bank of England was held, following which the regulator kept the base interest rate at 0.1%. It was also decided to increase the volume of the government bond buyback program from 745 billion pounds to 875 billion pounds.

This decision was supported by all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). At the same time, the increase in the volume of purchases turned out to be even higher than the forecasts of analysts, who had expected its growth to 825 billion pounds.

The Bank of England also released an updated quarterly forecast, according to which the UK economy by the end of the year will fall by 11%, rather than 9.5%, as suggested by the August forecast. The regulator stressed that the development of the situation with the coronavirus in the country will affect spending in the short term more than predicted.

Household spending and GDP will start to grow in the first quarter of 2021 amid easing quarantine measures, the Bank of England predicts. At the same time, in January-March of next year, economic activity will be significantly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Also, the Central Bank expects British GDP growth in 2021 by 7.25% instead of 9% and by 6.25% in 2022 instead of 3.5%.

November 12. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for state unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected to 709 thousand. At the same time, the figure remains at a level that raises concerns about a slowdown in the labor market recovery by background of the resumption of coronavirus diseases.

Analysts had expected the number of applications to drop to 735,000. The previous figures were revised to 757 thousand. The number of secondary applications fell to 6.786 million, which is also slightly below the forecast.

Experts note that the number of initial filings is still close to the lowest level since late March, when the first wave of layoffs related to the epidemic hit the US economy. At the same time, the indicator still exceeds the level of applications before the start of the pandemic by more than three times.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended October 31 fell by 436 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week to 6.786 million.

November 16. Asia created the world's largest trading block

Fifteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region on Sunday formed the world's largest free trade bloc without the participation of the United States, but with the support of China. The new alliance was named the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

It is noted that the countries of the new trading bloc account for 30% of world GDP and almost a third of the world's population, and their total market is 2.2 billion consumers. The RWEP brought together the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The RWEP could strengthen China's position in relations with Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea, as well as provide the world's second largest economy with leverage to shape the rules of trade in the region. In addition, the new partnership will help China reduce its reliance on foreign markets and technology, which is growing due to deteriorating relations with the United States.

November 23. Experts predict Europe «long years of pain»

Analyzing the current state of affairs in Europe, experts note that the growth of corporate debts risks turning the region into long «years of pandemic pain».

Analysts are confident that after the crisis support from the state ends, there will be a risk of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies, which will hit the banking sector and further exacerbate the economic downturn.

Debt burden can hinder investment and job creation for years to come. In the first half of this year, eurozone companies borrowed more than 400 billion euros, compared with 289 billion euros for the whole of 2019.

The European Commission has warned that debt servicing could be challenging, especially in the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Experts note that paying off the debt accumulated during the pandemic is the second largest problem for business.

November 30. US exchanges are falling as part of the correction after a prolonged rise

Major US stock indices are declining on Monday in a correction, while remaining on track for their highest monthly gain since April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.93% to 29,633.02 points, the NASDAQ high-tech companies index – 0.05%, to 12,205.85 points, the S&P 500 broad market index – 0.59%, to 3,616.91 pips.

The main factor influencing investor sentiment was news about vaccines. Since early November, Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have reported successful trials of their vaccine samples with high efficacy. In addition, the positive dynamics in the US markets in November was also caused by a decrease in political uncertainty after the presidential elections.

December 04. Crude Oil rises to eight-month high as OPEC + deal

Brent oil prices jumped to $49.86 per barrel after the announcement of the results of the OPEC + meeting. Thus, the asset has renewed its maximum for the last eight months.

The organization has decided to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in January in response to rising prices and improved demand forecasts for 2021. The demand for hydrocarbons is expected to recover quickly thanks to progress in the development of a vaccine against COVID-19.

However, this is only a quarter of the 2 million bpd increase the group originally expected in January.

An additional stimulus for growth is the fact that OPEC keeps its plans regarding the need to further restrict oil production unchanged.

December 09. Brexit talks and coronavirus vaccinations

The term of negotiations between the UK and the European Union is coming to an end, but the countries have not yet reached a new trade agreement. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Brussels today to have a business dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and try to find common ground.

Meanwhile, the first alarming news of the effects of the coronavirus vaccine has arrived. Pfizer-BioNTech has begun to vaccinate UK citizens this week, and a couple of mild allergic reactions have already been reported. British health authorities are now reporting that allergy sufferers should refrain from vaccinations.

In addition, a third vaccine from the Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinopharm has appeared, which claims to be highly effective (86%), which is confirmed by data from the UAE. The development of additional vaccines is likely to be an important step in the fight against coronavirus.

As a reminder, the US and the European Union have already reserved drugs produced and planned for production in the coming months by Pfizer and Moderna. Thus, the rest of the companies that developed vaccines will meet the needs of other countries.

Meeting of the European Council: 2021 budget

The last meeting of the European Council in 2020 began yesterday. The main topic of discussion is the budget for the next year. At the end of the meeting, it became known how the European Union will spend the money and whether it will be able to allocate enough funds for the Recovery Fund - a special section of the budget dedicated to combating the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

Poland and Hungary have previously questioned the future of the Recovery Fund. The two most right-wing EU countries had a problem with a provision in the funding bill that linked raising funds with respect for the rule of law. Both Poland and Hungary have come under criticism from the EU in recent years for problems in the judicial system, as well as freedom of speech and press. Fearing that this policy would leave them without EU incentives, Poland and Hungary said they would veto the bill.

However, other EU countries have forced these countries to pass a bill and budget plan totaling 1.8 trillion euros. The compromise was due to the clarification that respect for the rule of law would not be retroactive. In other words, Poland and Hungary (or any other EU member state violating this principle) can only be punished for future offenses, and not for what they have already done.

The EU Council summit disappointed anyone hoping for news of Brexit. The question that the transition period ends in less than three weeks is not on the agenda. The UK and the EU are still in talks, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen said earlier that they have until Sunday to find a compromise. The EU has already developed guidelines for the negative scenario.

December 16. Bitcoin price has updated a new all-time high

The value of the most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin, grows on Wednesday evening, exceeding the maximum level of December 2017 ($ 20,042) and updating a new all-time high at $ 20,535.

Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, has risen sharply since October. Digital currencies are rising in value amid optimism in global markets and expectations that the Covid-19 pandemic will be brought under control thanks to the emergence of vaccines against coronavirus infection.

Additional support for Bitcoin is provided by a sharp weakening of the US dollar in the world market.