August 14. GDP of the European Union in the II quarter fell by a record 14.1%

According to the second estimate of the European statistical agency Eurostat, the GDP of the EU countries in the second quarter fell by 14.1% in annual terms. On a quarterly basis, the indicator decreased by 11.7%.

In the second quarter of the year, the economies of 19 eurozone countries contracted by 12.1% in quarterly terms and by 15% in annual terms. All indicators were in line with analysts' forecasts and the agency's first estimate.

Eurostat noted that the decline in all indicators was the strongest since the start of statistics in 1995. Thus, the European economy has been declining for two quarters, which suggests that Europe has entered a recession. In the first quarter of 2020, the decline in GDP of 19 eurozone countries amounted to 3.6% in quarterly terms and 3.1% in annual terms. The EU economy contracted by 3.2% in Q1 and 2.5% in annual terms in Q1.

August 20. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded 1 million

The number of initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 1.106 million, according to the US Labor Department, fueling fears that the recovery in America's labor market could be delayed. Experts predicted a decrease in the number of applications to 925 thousand.

The number of Americans who submitted secondary claims for benefits fell to 14.844 million. The total number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 200 thousand, to 28.06 million.

The US authorities note that since the labor market is still weak, additional financial assistance will be required in the near future to support vulnerable families and the economy as a whole.

September 03. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell more than expected

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from the revised figure of the previous week by 130 thousand - to 881 thousand.

Analysts predicted a decline in the indicator by 56 thousand applications. The figure has dropped below 1 million for the second time since March saw a sharp increase in the number of applications.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States decreased by 1.238 million from the revised figure of the previous week to 13.254 million.

September 08. US ready to hit China's economy again

The US has said it is considering a ban on Chinese cotton products from Xinjiang. The US cited alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang as the reason for this move.

Moreover, D. Trump noted that if he is re-elected in the presidential elections, he will end his dependence on the Chinese economy. In his statement, the president stressed that he «intends to turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower, independent of China.»

According to the head of the White House, the US authorities will be able to return jobs from China, and companies that want to leave America will be required to pay large sums. Trump also said that today the United States is losing billions of dollars in the course of economic cooperation with China.

September 14. OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand for 2020-2021

According to the September OPEC report, the organization downgraded the forecast for world oil demand for 2020 and 2021 by 0.4 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects a drop in demand by 9.5 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.6 million barrels next year. In 2020, demand is expected at 90.2 million barrels per day, and in 2021 – at 96.9 million.

The deterioration is mainly due to a decrease in the level of economic activity in several countries of the Asia-Pacific region due to an increase in the number of cases of infection with Covid-19. Oil demand in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the second quarter was much lower than initially expected. At the same time, the demand for oil in China in the second quarter exceeded expectations.

The organization notes that forecasts for demand may be lowered again due to the risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the world and the difficulties associated with vaccination. Moreover, the restrictions due to the pandemic and the operation of many businesses remotely could prevent the transport sector from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels next year.

September 17. The World Bank gave dates of the global economy recovery

World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart, speaking at the Trends 2021 online forum, said that the global economy will not recover from the coronavirus crisis until 2025.

Therein, in some countries the recession will last longer than in others. In particular, poor countries will be much more affected by the crisis, which could lead to an increase in the level of extreme poverty in the world from 8% to 9%.

In a June World Bank report, experts predicted the worst recession since World War II. According to them, the decline in the global economy in 2020 will be 5.2%.

September 22. UK signaled new quarantine

On Tuesday, the UK said it intends to abandon the return of people to their usual jobs in an attempt to contain the rapidly growing second wave of Covid-19 in the country.

In addition to imposing curfews for pubs and restaurants, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on the population to switch to remote work. Such statements may indicate that the country is moving towards expanding the tough social distancing measures introduced in the spring.

On the news, stocks in UK travel and leisure companies began to decline before they bounced back from the crisis (Ryanair, International Airlines Group and Air France). KLM shares plunged 4-5%, while shares in aerospace suppliers Meggitt, Senior and Rolls-Royce tumbled for the last to hit another new low for the year.

The British company Whitbread, which operates a chain of hotels and restaurants, announced today plans to cut 18% of its staff, or about 6 thousand jobs. The company's shares fell 3.5%, having lost more than half of their value this year.

September 23. US Department of Energy Oil Inventory Report

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, the volume of commercial crude oil in storage in the United States (excluding strategic reserves) for the week ended September 18, decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 494.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4.0 million barrels.

US gasoline stocks decreased by 4.0 million barrels. and amounted to 227.5 million barrels. Experts expected a 1.9 million barrels of gasoline reserves to be cut. Distillate stocks (including diesel fuel and heating oil) decreased by 3.4 mln barrels. and amounted to 175.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase in distillate stocks by 1.2 million barrels.

Oil reserves in the US Strategic Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.8 million barrels. and amounted to 645.0 million barrels.

Cushing's commercial crude oil reserves remained unchanged at 54.3 mmbbl.

Earlier, the API Institute reported that commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million barrels, distillate reserves decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and oil reserves in the Cushing storage facility increased by 0.3 million barrels.

September 24. Oil prices drop due to economic uncertainty and coronavirus

Oil prices fell on Thursday amid uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and the situation with the coronavirus. The current quotation of Brent is $41.50 per barrel, WTI is $39.75.

Market participants are awaiting further action by the authorities of some countries amid an increase in new cases of coronavirus infection. Investors are concerned about the outlook for the global economy and oil demand amid the likelihood of re-imposing restrictions by some countries.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by statements by the Iraqi oil minister that the country was counting on an agreement with OPEC + to increase oil exports. A week earlier, the minister said that Iraq had developed a plan to compensate for its overproduction of oil by the end of 2020 as part of the OPEC + deal.

September 30. Oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 0.4% over the week

According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country (excluding the strategic reserve) decreased by 2 million barrels, or 0.4%, and reached 492.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.6 million, to 495.9 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States for the week averaged 10.7 million barrels per day, as in the previous week. On average, over the past four weeks, oil production in the United States amounted to 10.575 million barrels per day.

Recall that in early September, the US Department of Energy increased the forecast for the average oil production in the country for the current year by 120 thousand barrels per day, to 11.38 million (compared with the August estimate), and reduced for 2021 – by 60 thousand barrels, to 11.08 million barrels per day.

October 5. US services PMI gains better than forecast

According to the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of business activity in the US services sector in September rose to 57.8%. The indicator for August was noted at 56.9%. Analysts had forecast a decline to 56.3%.

The employment index in the country's services sector in September rose to 51.8% from 47.9% in August.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services, calculated by IHS Markit and also released today, dropped to 54.6 points in September, up from 55 points in August.

Business activity in the US services sector continues to climb for the fourth straight month amid a gradual recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The service sector accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.

October 07. Futures on US indices are growing in anticipation of the Fed meeting minutes

Futures on major US stock indexes started to rise on Wednesday after a sharp drop a day earlier after President Donald Trump announced that he would stop negotiations on supporting the economy. Further trading dynamics will depend on the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal reserve system this evening.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.82% to 27928 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index rose 0.88% to 11373.88 points, and the S&P 500 broad-market index futures rose 0.83% to 3380.88 points.

Investors are awaiting the release of minutes from the Fed's September meeting, in which they think to find details of further prospects for the recovery of the American economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yesterday's decline was caused by US President Donald Trump's announcement to end negotiations with Democrats in the house of representatives on stimulating the economy before the November presidential election. The reason was a disagreement over the amount of stimulus: house speaker Nancy Pelosi is demanding $2.4 trillion, and the White house administration is ready to give no more than $1.6 trillion.

October 12. Saudi Arabia will host the largest banking deal of the year

National Commercial Bank (NCB), the largest Bank in Saudi Arabia by assets, announced the purchase of rival Samba Financial Group for $15 billion. This deal will be the largest in the banking sector since the beginning of 2020. It is expected to be closed in the first half of 2021.

The combined Bank with assets of more than $220 billion will be the third in this indicator among financial institutions of the Gulf countries, its capitalization will exceed $46 billion.

NCB will pay 28.45 Saudi riyals ($7.58) per Samba share, which values the entire Bank at 55.7 billion riyals. The deal will be paid for with NCB shares. As a result, NCB shareholders will own 67.4% of the combined Bank, while Samba shareholders will own 32.6%. The national welfare Fund of Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is the largest shareholder of both banks, will own 37.2% of the combined financial institution.

The Saudi authorities continue to act in accordance with the plan to diversify the country's economy and reduce its dependence on the oil sector.