05.05. US stocks rise in hope of global economic recovery

According to trading data, the main US indices are growing amid the emergence of prospects for the recovery of the global economy after the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Traders evaluate the news of the gradual lifting of quarantine measures in a number of countries, in particular in Italy.

Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index grew by 1.27% – up to 24050.99 points, the index of high-tech companies NASDAQ – by 1.44%, up to 8836.43 points, the S&P500 wide market index increased by 1, 29%, up to 2879.55 points.

An additional factor of optimism on the exchanges is also the restoration of the oil market. Today, the price of Brent grade has reached $30.30, and WTI crude oil – $24 per barrel.

However, pressure on the US stock market had data on the US trade deficit. In March, the figure rose to $ 44.4 billion, turning out to be worse than the forecast of $ 44 billion.

May, 07. Industrial production in Germany in March fell at a record pace

According to the German Ministry of Economics and Labor, industrial production in the country fell by 9.2% in March compared with the previous month, which was the largest decrease since the start of data collection in 1991. Experts predicted a decrease in industrial production by 7.5%.

The automotive industry showed a decline of 31.1% in monthly terms. Manufacturing production decreased by 11.6%. The production of capital goods fell by 16.5%. However, the performance of the construction industry showed an increase of almost 2%.

The orders of industrial enterprises in Germany in March fell by 15.6% compared to February, which also became the minimum value since the beginning of data collection in 1991.

May, 11. The European Commission expects the second wave of coronavirus

The President of the European Commission said that EU countries could face the second wave of the spread of coronavirus, and all measures should be taken to prepare for such a scenario.

Scientists from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control regularly assess the pandemic situation. At the same time, they concluded that new outbreaks of the disease can begin, even if current indicators are well controlled.

Moreover, disappointing news comes from the East, where new cases of Covid-19 infection were again recorded in China and South Korea after a long period of their absence. China reported 17 new cases of coronavirus and closed the entrance to Shulan City. South Korea is also sounding the alarm, as 27 new cases of infection were recorded in this country as early as May 10.

May 13. UK retail sales slow at record pace in April

UK retail sales plummeted last month as coronavirus control measures limited consumer activity.

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), retail sales in April fell 19.1% year on year. The decrease was the highest since the beginning of observations in 1995.

In February-April, sales of non-food items in stores fell 36%. Food sales during this period increased by 6%, as consumers stocked up on essentials in connection with quarantine. Online sales of non-food items jumped nearly 60% in April.

Costs at pubs and restaurants fell 97%, while sales at supermarkets grew 14%.

May 15. Eurozone economy contracted at record pace in Q1

According to the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), the eurozone economy in the first quarter fell at a record pace, as measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic sharply reduced economic activity in the region. Today's Eurozone GDP data showed a decrease of 3.8% compared with the previous three months. This decline was the sharpest quarterly decline since data collection began in 1995.

In annual terms, the GDP of the European region fell by 3.2%, and not by 3.3%, as previously reported, after growing by 1% in October-December.

The economy of all EU countries in the I quarter decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous quarter and by 2.6% in annual terms. The German economy, the largest in Europe, contracted 2.2% in January-March compared with the previous quarter.

According to the forecasts of the European Commission, the eurozone economy in 2020 may contract by a record 7.7% due to the coronavirus pandemic, while public debt and budget deficits will increase.

May 26. Fed ready for policy change

The Federal Reserve is ready to move on targeting the yield of treasury bonds – this was the conclusion made by market participants by analyzing the actions of the regulator.

A similar policy has long been adhered to by the Bank of Japan, as well as the Central Bank of Australia since March. In other words, central banks, which have already reduced rates to zero, are beginning to conduct selective purchases of government bonds in order to keep the yield curve at certain levels, while giving a signal to the market that rates will remain low.

Currently, the Fed is considering various tools to support the economy and the financial market in a way out of the crisis. Traders are sure that this is the path the American regulator will choose.

If the Fed decides to take this step, bond purchases will not be carried out according to a previously announced schedule, but only when the central bank considers it necessary, and to the extent necessary to maintain the yield in a given range.

US oil inventories unexpectedly rose 1.5% over the week

According to the US Energy Information Administration (IEA), commercial oil reserves in the country for the week ending May 22 grew by 7.9 million barrels, or 1.5%, to 534.4 million barrels. Analysts had forecast a decline in stocks of 1.9 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels, or 0.3%, to 255 million barrels. Forecasts suggested growth of 0.1 million barrels.

Distillate stocks over the same week increased by 5.5 million barrels, or 3.5%, to 164.3 million barrels. An increase of 1.8 million barrels was predicted.

The strategic oil reserve in the country increased compared to the previous week by 2.1 million barrels, or 0.3%, to 643.8 million barrels.

June 01. Eurozone PMI index in May turned out to be worse than forecast

According to the final assessment of the research organization Markit Economics, the index of business activity (PMI) in industrial production of 19 countries in the eurozone in May rose to 39.4 points from 33.4 points in April.

Analysts assumed that the indicator remained at the preliminary assessment level of 39.5 points.

The largest growth of the PMI index in May 2020 was recorded in Italy (45.4 points), Greece (41.1 points), France (40.6 points) and Austria (40.4 points). Germany, Europe's largest economy, had the lowest PMI growth (36.6 points).

June 03. Egypt launched an oil well at 123 thousand barrels per month

Egypt has commissioned a new well in the Western Desert, capable of producing more than 0.5 million cubic meters of natural gas and more than 4 thousand barrels of oil per day. The production capacity of the new well will be approximately 123 thousand barrels of oil per month.

A 4.4-kilometer well is located in the Abu Sinan area in western Egypt.

Earlier in December, Egyptian authorities already announced the commissioning of another well, located in the same area and capable of producing up to 7 thousand barrels of oil per day and about 280 thousand cubic meters of gas. The Egyptian Oil Ministry notes that oil production in the Western Desert fields is about 60% of the country's total production.

June 05. OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 6

Today it became known that the ministerial meetings of OPEC and OPEC + will be held on the same day, June 6. The decision to hold these events suggests that countries that are not fully implementing the deal (Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan) in the past months have promised to compensate for this later by increasing production cuts. Approximately 1.5 million bpd in the following months.

In May, OPEC countries were to reduce production by 6.085 million bpd from 26.7 million bpd. According to preliminary data, OPEC countries completed the deal in May by about 75%, in particular because of Iraq and Nigeria. Nigeria reported that it completed the deal by 52%.

This news provided strong support for Brent quotes: on Friday, oil rose to $41.60 per barrel.

June 09. German exports collapsed by a record 31.1% in April

According to the Federal Statistical Office of German (Destatis), exports in the country, which is the largest economy in Europe, fell in April by 31.1% in annual terms and amounted to 75.7 billion euros. Imports for the reporting period decreased by 21.6%, to 72.2 billion euros.

Such a decline in exports was a record since the start of statistics on foreign trade in Germany in 1950. And such a strong drop in imports was recorded in July 2009, during the financial crisis (-23.6%).

In monthly terms, the decline in exports amounted to 24%, analysts expected a decrease of only 15.6%. Import compared to March decreased by 16.5%, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts of 16%.

The surplus of Germany's foreign trade balance in April amounted to 3.2 billion euros. Analysts predicted 10 billion euros.

June 11. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US fell more than forecast

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits continued to decline last week, although it may take a lot of time to fully recover the labor market after a pandemic.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of June 6 was 1.542 million. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, predicted a decrease in the number of applications to 1.55 million.

The number of applications is gradually decreasing after reaching a historical maximum of 6.867 million in the week ended March 28. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell less than expected to 20.929, compared with 21.268 million a week earlier.

In May, the number of jobs in the US economy increased by 2.509 million. Unemployment fell to 13.3% from 14.7% in April.