March 1. Oil began to decline on signals of rising stocks in the US

On the first day of March, oil quotes began to decline after the release of data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on another increase in fuel reserves in the United States.

The price of Brent crude oil fell from the level of $84.10 to $82.70 per barrel. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: a decline to $76.20 after yesterday's growth to $77.65 per barrel.

According to API statistics, crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 6.2 million barrels last week. Today, we should pay attention to similar data from the US Department of Energy. Analysts assume that the official report will indicate an increase in reserves by about 500 thousand barrels.

Yesterday, oil showed strengthening amid optimism about the recovery of the Chinese economy. In particular, the Purchasing managers' Index (PMI) in the processing industry of China rose in February to 52.6 points (from 50.1 points a month earlier), reaching a record high since 2012. Analysts on average expected a more moderate increase, up to 50.5 points.

The PMI of the service sector in February rose to 56.3 points from 54.4 points in January. The indicator has updated the maximum since March 2021.

February 28. The IMF refused to ban cryptocurrencies

The International Monetary Fund intends to abandon the idea of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. This was stated by the Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva during her speech at the meeting of G20 finance ministers in Bangalore, India.

Instead of a ban, the fund plans to differentiate and regulate crypto assets. «We are in favor of regulating the world of digital money, and this is a top priority, despite the fact that there is still a lot of confusion in the classification of digital money,» Georgieva said.

To date, the IMF's first goal is to distinguish between government-backed digital currencies of central banks and publicly issued crypto assets and stablecoins.

The head of the fund also stated that fully secured stablecoins create a fairly good space for the economy, and unsecured crypto assets are speculative and high-risk assets that require more regulation. The IMF still believes that crypto assets cannot be legal tender, since they are not secured by anything.

Moreover, if states fail to develop a mechanism to combat money laundering through cryptocurrencies and protect investors, the IMF does not rule out a complete ban on the use of an innovative tool in the global economy.

March 17.  Economists recorded a peak drop in oil amid banking turmoil

Analyzing the dynamics of oil prices in recent days, economists have come to the conclusion that oil has suffered the biggest losses in a week this year. The drop in raw materials is mainly due to significant shocks in the world markets in the banking sector.

Recall that on March 11, the 16th largest US bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was declared bankrupt. The bankruptcy of this major Silicon Valley bank was the second largest in U.S. history after Washington Mutual Bank, whose collapse in 2008 led to a drop in stock prices in Europe and the closure of another bank in the United States.

Today, futures for North American WTI crude oil fell below $68 per barrel. At the end of the week, the drop was about 10%. The current price of the asset is $67.17 per barrel. Brent oil is also showing a decline – to the level of $73.40 per barrel.

Market participants are waiting for a reaction to the current collapse in prices from OPEC+. However, there is an opinion that the cartel will not take any action until the price of Brent crude oil falls below $70 per barrel for a long period of time.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency predicts that the oil market will be in surplus in the first half of 2023, despite the reduction in oil production in Russia in March. The European Union expects that the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $84.8 per barrel.

April 24. Binance allowed deposits with Russian cards

The Binance crypto exchange has returned to users from Russia the opportunity to replenish deposits using Qiwi wallets and Russian bank cards.

The Binance support service states: «You can make a deposit on our platform using a Russian card via Qiwi. At the same time, all Visa, Mastercard and other cards issued in Russia are supported.»

Among the currencies that can be used to replenish the deposit, rubles, Turkish lira, British pounds, euros, Kazakhstani tenge, Australian dollar, Ukrainian hryvnia, Czech crown and a number of others are offered. At the same time, there is no US dollar.

Recall that in March last year, against the background of events in Ukraine, the crypto exchange announced the suspension of operations using Mastercard and Visa bank cards issued in Russia. In 2023, Binance also banned Russian citizens and persons residing in the country from making transactions with dollars and euros through the money transfer service between individuals (P2P) in connection with the tenth package of sanctions adopted by the EU.

May 17. The pound remains under pressure after the speech of the head of the Bank of England

The British pound sterling has been showing a significant drop in recent days in a pair with the US dollar, falling to the level of 1.2422. On Wednesday, after a speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who said that the central bank expects price pressure to ease in April, the pound remains under pressure.

Speaking at the annual world conference at the UK Chamber of Commerce, Bailey said that if price pressures prove more sustainable, further policy tightening will be required. At the same time, he added that there were signs of some weakening of the labor market.

Yesterday, data on unemployment in the UK were published: it rose to 3.9%. However, the growth rate of wages, including bonuses, remained unchanged, and this forced market participants to moderate expectations for further rate increases.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2477. The EUR/GBP pair also shows a drop during the day – to the level of 0.8677.

The Bank of England began tightening monetary policy at the end of 2021. Since then, the British central bank has raised its key interest rate by 400 basis points in total. However, to date, market opinions regarding the next step of the central bank are divided.

Thus, the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting of the Bank of England by 25 basis points is 66%. Analysts note that the further steps of the regulator will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data, while the inflation report for April, which is expected next week, will be important.

June 16. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped by 30% due to the closure of the field

Natural gas prices in Europe have soared by 30% due to the closure of the largest Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This decision was made after a series of earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes.

Although a final decision has not yet been made, the official closure of the field is expected after a government meeting at the end of June. This deposit is the oldest in the country and it has been in operation for 60 years.

This news caused a significant increase in gas futures prices, and then prices stabilized and rose by 10%, reaching 42.16 euros per megawatt hour.

The closure of Groningen is due to frequent earthquakes caused by gas extraction, which have led to the destruction of thousands of homes in the region since the 1980s. Plans to close the field were accelerated after a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mark Rutte and accusations of an ineffective government response to the problems.

The Groningen field will operate at minimum levels until the final closure and about 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas will still be produced.

September 11. Oil market news

On Monday morning, oil prices remain stable in the area above $90 per barrel.

The current quotation of Brent crude oil is $90.30. The maximum reached at the end of last week is $90.83. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current price is $86.97 per barrel, Friday's maximum is $87.75.

These marks were the highest since November last year. Over the past week, prices for Brent rose by 2.4%, and for WTI – by 2.3%.

The current slight decline in prices is probably a technical correction. Although the oil market is still under pressure from concerns related to the slowdown in economic growth in China.

China returned to inflation in August, but the growth rate was slower than expected. Consumer prices (CPI index) in the country last month increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which was below the average analysts' expectations of 0.2%. In July, the decline was 0.3%.

This week, attention should be paid to the publication of OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, which is scheduled for Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy will present a weekly report on crude oil reserves in the country.

The price of gold continues to break records

Gold, which ended trading at a historic high on Thursday, continues to rise on Monday amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Friday, due to Easter, the exchanges of the United States and many European countries were closed.

The price of June gold contracts at the close of trading on the New York Comex exchange on Thursday was $2,238.4 per ounce. On Monday, the futures price rose 1.8% to reach $2,286.35. In March, the price of gold increased by 8.9%, and for the entire first quarter – by 8%.

Analysts note that the unprecedented rally in gold was caused by softer inflation data in the United States, which increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in June. The consumer price index (PCE) in the United States in February increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which was lower than analysts' expectations, who predicted an inflation rate of 0.4%.

Markets estimate the probability of a Fed base rate cut in June at about 70%, and also expect that by the end of 2024 it will decrease by 75 basis points from the current level of 5.25-5.5% per annum.

As you know, lower interest rates create a favorable environment for gold, increasing its attractiveness as an investment asset. Gold investors act with confidence that the Fed will prefer to lower interest rates regardless of whether inflation reaches the target level.
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The main events by the morning: May 7

The EU is considering trade sanctions against Israel due to the policy of aggressive war in the Gaza Strip. Belgium proposed the initiative. And although Belgium had already decided on its own to impose sanctions a few weeks ago, the country's Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, stressed that a collective approach from the entire alliance was needed.

Brussels has announced that the EU ambassador will not attend Vladimir Putin's inauguration on May 7. The authorities of Poland, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom also announced their refusal to send their representatives to participate in the ceremony.

SberPay launched in Turkey. To use this service, you must inform Sber at the time of purchase that you want to pay through the Metropol system and then go to the website payinturkey.com.

The European Union plans to impose sanctions against the Russian version of SWIFT as part of the 14th package of sanctions.

The demand for workers who speak Chinese increased by 63% in 2024. Proficiency in Chinese at a fluent/conversational level increases the average earnings of a specialist by 18-20%. Chinese is the second most popular language after English.

The EU countries have reached a consensus on the use of proceeds from frozen Russian assets. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the readiness of the EU countries to direct 90% of all profits to the military needs of Ukraine.

The main events by the morning: May 21

The US Congress is concerned about the gradual abandonment of the dollar. Republican Thomas Massey said that countries are forced to abandon the American currency, including due to inflation. He is confident that other countries will start using alternative currencies, and the United States will have to rely only on the resources of its citizens.

China continues to get rid of American debt by selling a record amount of U.S. bonds in the first quarter of 2024. During this period, China sold bonds worth $53.3 billion, which is a historical record. Experts believe that the reason for this is the use of the dollar by the United States as a weapon. Contradictions arise, as users of the dollar see injustice in its use in economic conflicts.

The UN Security Council has not adopted a Russian draft resolution on the non-deployment of weapons in outer space. Seven countries voted for the draft, including Russia and China, while Switzerland abstained. Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, said that the rejection of the resolution proves the intention of the United States to militarize outer space.

France has supported the International Criminal Court's request for the arrest of Israeli officials and Hamas leaders. The ICC's demand became known yesterday. Washington rejected this demand, and President Biden said he saw no signs of genocide in the Gaza Strip.

Russians are less likely to repay mortgages ahead of schedule. In the first quarter of 2024, 432.7 billion rubles were spent on early repayment of mortgages, which is the lowest in the last four years. The reason for this is the high key rate, because of which citizens prefer to leave their excess funds in the bank at a high interest rate.

A new round of trade war – the EU intends to raise duties on cars from China

The European Union, following the United States, plans to increase duties on Chinese cars.

Last week, the United States significantly increased duties on some goods from China. It wasn't just cars that were hit. Tariffs for microchips were doubled to 50%, for batteries – from 7.5% to 25%, for solar panels – from zero to 25%. In turn, Europe is considering the possibility of imposing similar restrictions on Chinese goods.

The rapid development of affordable electric vehicle production in China is putting significant pressure on European brands. Due to the intensive supply of cars from China, they are postponing their plans to switch to electric vehicles, significantly lagging behind Chinese competitors in development.

Currently, the duty on Chinese cars in the EU is 10%. Analysts believe that it is necessary to increase this figure to at least 25%. Some experts believe that only tariffs above 55% will be able to change the situation.

Modi's election victory will support the growth of the rupee

The Indian rupee has gained the status of one of the most stable currencies in Asia this year, mainly due to the significant inflow of foreign currency into bonds denominated in rupees.

This positive trend may continue due to expectations of the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to promote economic policies conducive to the growth of the Indian economy. Voting is expected on June 4 after the completion of multi-stage elections in India, which began in April.

The rupee is expecting a significant strengthening in May and may even become the best currency of the year. The rupee is projected to peak at 82 rupees per 1 dollar by the end of 2024. However, risks may arise, including strict currency controls by the Reserve Bank of India in order to ensure the stability of the rupee and protect the country's export competitiveness.

Modi's election victory is seen as a favorable factor for the rupee, given the prosperity of the economy during his previous reign.

Foreign investors have already invested approximately $6 billion in bonds denominated in rupees before including Indian sovereign bonds in the emerging markets index from JPMorgan Chase & Co. in June.
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