October 21. Brent declines slightly after reaching 3-year high

Yesterday evening, Brent oil quotes reached another high at $86.09 per barrel. Today the price is moderately declining: the current quotation of the asset is $85. WTI crude oil is also showing a decline after yesterday's rise to $83.94 per barrel. The current price for a WTI barrel is $82.86.

The driver of yesterday's growth was the data from the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. In particular, the commercial reserves of hydrocarbons in the United States last week decreased by 431 thousand barrels – to 426.54 million. Gasoline reserves decreased by 5.368 million barrels and amounted to 217.74 million barrels, distillate stocks decreased by 3.913 million barrels, to 125, 39 million barrels.

Experts on average expected an increase in oil reserves by 2 million barrels, as well as a decrease in gasoline reserves by 2.2 million and distillates – by 2.4 million.

A day earlier, similar statistics were published from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The data indicated an increase in US oil inventories by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending October 15.

October 20. The expert assessed the possible problems of Europe due to high gas prices

Analysts share their gloomy forecasts regarding the future prospects of the European oil and gas market, as well as the electric power industry of the region as a whole.

Some of them are of the opinion that the industry in Europe may start working intermittently due to high prices for «blue fuel». In recent weeks, the EU has faced a rapid rise in gas prices, which leads to higher electricity prices.

Back in August, the estimated price of the futures was about $515 per thousand cubic meters, and by the end of September, the indicator had more than doubled. At the same time, on October 6, prices even updated the historical maximum at $1937. Now the price of futures in Europe is holding slightly above $1000 per thousand cubic meters.

Experts believe that the current high prices will remain so and will even be at risk of spikes. This may lead to some problems in the area of demand caused by prices. We are talking about closing or reducing the hours of operation of gas-intensive consumers in order to achieve a market balance.

However, today everything is not so tragic. The European Commission emphasizes that there is enough gas in the storage facilities for the European Union to pass the winter, and there are no risks to the stability of energy supply yet.

October 27. Gold is stable in the middle of the week

On Wednesday evening, the price of gold fluctuates slightly near $1,795 per ounce. Market participants monitor the general dynamics of trading, evaluate the financial reports of companies and expect the results of the meetings of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts note that a slight decline in precious metal quotations could be caused by an increase in appetite for risky assets against the background of the publication of strong financial reports of companies. Despite all the risks and the unstable economic situation in the world, many companies have demonstrated an increase in reporting indicators.

In addition, investors are waiting for the decisions of central banks on further monetary policy, which will inevitably affect the dollar and gold exchange rates. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will hold a meeting, and on November 3, the results of its meeting will be announced by the US Federal Reserve System. It is expected that regulators will begin to curtail support measures.

Of considerable interest are the data on US GDP, which will be published on Thursday. Analysts expect growth in the third quarter to slow to 2.7% year-on-year after an increase of 6.7% in the second quarter.

November 01. Oil is recovering after the morning fall

On Monday, oil began the trading day with a decline in quotations to the level of $83 per barrel. Pressure on the asset was exerted by China's public statement that it intends to sell gasoline and diesel fuel stocks from its reserves in order to increase supply on the market and stabilize prices. Analysts note that Beijing has announced the release of reserves for the first time.

However, almost immediately, Brent quotes managed to recover to the level of $84.70 per barrel. WTI rose from a daily low of $82.75 to $84.19 per barrel.

At the same time, the oil market continues to be under pressure. Another driver of the decline in prices this week may be concerns that OPEC+ countries, following the results of the upcoming meeting on Thursday, may ease production restrictions and increase the supply of raw materials to world markets.

In addition to OPEC+, the US Federal Reserve will also hold a meeting this week, which may also have a significant impact on the dynamics of the value of «black gold».

October 29. Bill Gates: Abandoning nuclear power could lead to problems with energy supply

Microsoft founder Bill Gates said that abandoning nuclear power could lead to serious problems with electricity supply, for example, to an increase in electricity prices and difficulties with its supply.

In his interview, Gates noted: «Shutting down nuclear reactors will make it difficult to ensure reliable electricity supplies and favorable prices.» Speaking about the transition to renewable energy sources, he also said that no solution can be ruled out until the costs and reliability are checked.

The head of Microsoft is concerned about whether there will be a new generation of nuclear power plants that will be better in terms of costs, safety and disposal. According to Gates, he is now financing an enterprise that is building a new, fourth-generation nuclear reactor.

At the same time, Bill Gates spoke negatively about the construction of gas power plants in Europe. In his opinion, gas is not a real transition technology. At the same time, Gates stressed that the world will continue to consume a lot of natural gas until emissions of harmful substances fall to zero.

November 03. The gas price in Europe jumped after Gazprom's decision

Gazprom announced that it had not booked additional capacity for transit through the gas transportation system of Ukraine in the first and third quarters of 2022. After this news, gas prices in Europe jumped by more than 4% to $814 per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom also did not book additional capacities through the gas pipeline through Poland.

On November 1, the daily transit of Russian gas through Ukraine fell by more than a third compared to the level of October 1. Ukraine reported that the volume of pumping decreased by 34%, to 57 million cubic meters per day. In total, Gazprom pays for transit capacities of 109 million cubic meters.

Earlier in October, the cost of gas in Europe fell by more than 10% after Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed Gazprom to start planned work on pumping gas into European storage facilities. The head of the energy company Alexey Miller said that Gazprom is ready to start additional supplies to Europe after November 8, when the storage facilities in Russia will be filled.

November 11. Oil continued to decline after inflation-induced drop

Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, reaching the level of $82.10 per barrel. The drop in quotations began yesterday, after the release of inflation data in the United States.

According to recent statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in October increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Analysts had forecast an increase of 5.8%. Such price growth has become the fastest in the last 30 years. The US dollar reacted with a strengthening amid expectations that the White House and the Federal Reserve will take measures to curb inflation. And this is a negative factor for oil prices.

WTI oil quotes are also declining, today's minimum was fixed at $80.22 per barrel.

The statistics on crude oil reserves in the United States had an additional impact on the dynamics of the oil market. According to the Ministry of Energy, reserves last week increased by 1 million barrels to 435.1 million barrels. Gasoline reserves decreased by 1.56 million barrels, to 212.7 million barrels, distillates – by 2.61 million barrels, to 124.51 million barrels.

November 10. US consumer prices in October increased by 6.2%

According to recent statistics, consumer prices in the United States in October rose more than forecasts suggested. This led to the highest annual increase in inflation since 1990.

Thus, inflation in the United States in October amounted to 0.9% on a monthly basis, while analysts predicted growth of 0.6%. Experts also note that inflation may remain high next year against the background of global supply chain problems.

In annual terms, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 6.2% against the forecast of growth of 5.8%.

Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose by 0.6%, with a growth forecast of only 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the base index grew by 4.6%, the forecast is an increase of 4.3%.

Meanwhile, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits came out: it fell to 267 thousand, while analysts assumed the figure at the level of 265 thousand. Such figures were the lowest since mid-March 2020.

November 17. The oil market remains highly volatile

For several days now, the oil market has been showing increased volatility, and the quotes of Brent and WTI fluctuate within wide ranges. If yesterday a barrel of Brent was worth about $83 per barrel, then today the quotes have dropped to $81.50.

Pressure on the «black gold» was exerted by the news that the administration of US President Joe Biden, considering the possibility of selling oil from the strategic reserve, is trying to achieve the same from China. At talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden also urged him to sell oil from the country's reserves, but China is not yet ready for such measures.

The current Brent quote is $81.90 per barrel, WTI oil is trading at $79.20 per barrel. Analysts note that if China agrees to release oil in order to lower prices on the market, it will be possible to talk about the beginning of a «bearish» trend.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which hydrocarbon reserves in the United States increased by 655 thousand barrels. A week earlier, inventories fell by 2.485 million barrels. Today, the US Department of Energy will present similar data. Analysts predict an average weekly decline in oil reserves by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline – by 100 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.3 million barrels.

November 16. The Turkish currency has updated the anti-record again

On Tuesday, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira paired with the US dollar again updated the historical minimum amid expectations of another reduction in the discount rate by the country's Central Bank. 

The current quote of the USD/TRY pair is 10.28 lira per dollar, which has become a new anti-record.

At the end of October, the Central Bank of Turkey decided to reduce the discount rate from 18% to 16% against the background of a record fall in the Turkish lira. After that, the national currency accelerated the decline. On Thursday, the Turkish regulator intends to lower the interest rate again.

Recall that the lira began to fall sharply in mid-October, after the news that three high-ranking officials of the Central Bank, including two deputy heads of the regulator, were dismissed by decree of President Tayyip Erdogan. As you know, they voted against reducing the interest rate at a meeting in September. Erdogan is in favor of lowering the rate, arguing that the increase in inflation is due to high interest rates.

November 22. Cryptocurrency Market | November 22 – 26

While the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin, is declining from the $58,000 level, some altcoins have started to grow and even reached new historical highs.

Bitcoin

Analyzing the dynamics of bitcoin, analysts predict that a «bearish» trend may take over the market in the near future. And if the cryptocurrency fails to stay near $57 thousand, then the further target of the decline will be the area of $52,500 – $50,000. In the worst case scenario (a breakthrough below the psychological support at the level of $ 50 thousand), you can expect the strongest sales, as traders will hurry to get out of their positions.

A more positive scenario assumes the recovery of bitcoin and the completion of the correction near $60 thousand, from where further growth can begin.

Last weekend, the President of El Salvador (the only country where bitcoin is recognized as legal tender) announced plans to build Bitcoin City – a city that will run exclusively on renewable geothermal energy sources. Residents of Bitcoin City will be exempt from paying all taxes (on income, property, capital gains, etc.), except VAT.

To finance the project, the authorities of El Salvador will issue tokenized 10-year bonds worth $1 billion.

Dogecoin

According to research, this cryptocurrency turned out to be the most popular by search queries in 23 US states. Analysts explain this popularity by the increased attention of Elon Musk to the asset. Recall that in May, Musk invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin. Moreover, the billionaire said that in 2022 SpaceX will launch a Doge-1 satellite to the moon. The current Dogecoin quote is $0.22.

Shiba Inu

Another popular token is a clone of Dogecoin Shiba Inu. Cryptocurrency has outstripped many other crypto assets in popularity. Moreover, it became known that an anonymous investor last week acquired Shiba Inu for about $8.3 million.

November 24. Japan also announced the sale of reserve oil

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida officially announced the decision to print part of the national oil reserve in response to similar actions by the United States and Biden's request to join the sale of oil reserves in order to stabilize world prices.

Kishida noted in his interview: «So far, we have been cooperating with America to stabilize the global oil market, so our country is keeping pace with the United States and in that form, as long as it does not violate the law.» The Prime Minister also stressed that stability of oil prices is a very important task for economic recovery after the pandemic.

Moreover, the Japanese authorities do not intend to limit themselves to these measures. Japan plans to work with oil-producing countries, take measures to support the agriculture and fisheries sectors, as well as measures aimed at mitigating the sharp rise in gasoline and oil prices.

Recall that yesterday US President Joe Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels of oil from state reserves in order to lower prices for this raw material. In addition, India also confirmed its plans to release 5 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves.

November 26. European markets in the red due to concerns about a new strain of coronavirus

On Friday, European stock indexes are falling as news of the newly identified new Covid-19 strain raises fears of another powerful blow to the global economy. Experts believe that the new strain may be resistant to vaccines.

As a result, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 3.3% to 468.72, showing the worst session in more than a year. The British FTSE 100 index also fell by 3.3%, to 7,091.10. The German DAX index fell to 15,426.10, and the French CAC 40 – to 6,806.76.

According to experts, the new strain found in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong is still poorly understood. But there are already suggestions that it has an unusual combination of mutations and can evade the immune response, and is also possibly more contagious.

Shares of tourism and leisure companies fell by 6.5% after the UK banned flights from South Africa and several neighboring African countries. Travel restrictions from these countries have also been imposed by Japan, Italy and Singapore.

November 30. Oil dropped below $71 for the first time since September

During trading on Tuesday, Brent oil quotes declined to $70.23 per barrel. The $71 level was broken for the first time since September 10. American WTI oil is also showing a decline – to the level of $67.09 per barrel.

Subsequently, prices recovered somewhat. The current Brent quote is $71.22 per barrel, WTI oil is $68.05.

Pressure on the market was exerted by the US statement that Washington does not intend to reconsider its decision to release oil from the country's strategic reserve, despite the fall in prices due to the appearance of a new omicron strain Covid-19. Recall, on November 23, the United States announced the release of 50 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in order to reduce fuel prices for Americans. In addition to the States, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom made a similar decision.

Prices for «black gold» are also declining amid concerns caused by the spread of a new strain of coronavirus. The head of the drug manufacturer Moderna shared his doubts about the effectiveness of existing coronavirus vaccines against the omicron strain.

At the same time, due to the uncertain prospects for oil demand, expectations are growing that OPEC + will abandon the planned increase in oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day in January. And if the organization still decides to pause in increasing production, the oil market will receive a significant driver for strengthening.

December 3.  Non-farm Payrolls disappointed the markets

According to the monthly Non-farm Payrolls report, the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector increased by only 210 thousand in November after an increase of 546 thousand in the previous month. This indicator turned out to be significantly lower than analysts' expectations (573 thousand).

At the same time, despite the large shortage of personnel, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%. At the same time, the labor force participation rate increased over the month to 61.8%, which is the highest since March 2020.

The Labor Department noted that the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, before the threat of a new Covid strain roiled markets and raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the winter.

The sectors that showed the largest increase in November include professional and business services (90 thousand), transport and warehousing (50 thousand), as well as construction (31 thousand). Retail trade decreased by 20 thousand employees, even though the holiday shopping season is approaching.

Stock markets rebound as risk-on mood returns

Risk sentiment returns to the markets. After being gripped by the uncertainty surrounding the new virus strain for the past couple of weeks, the markets finally breathed a sigh of relief.

US chief infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci recently told CNN that so far the Omicron strain does not pose a serious threat to the population. However, analysts at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, still urge investors to stay alert: "Although the markets are already tired of the news about Omicron, this does not reduce the danger of a new strain for both the population and the global economy."

Fauci's encouraging announcement brought risk sentiment back to the markets. As a result, global stock indicators jumped sharply on Tuesday as traders shifted their attention from safe-haven currencies and bonds to riskier assets. Thus, the demand for the shares of companies that are directly or indirectly related to the tourism sector began to rise again. At the same time, pharmaceutical companies involved in the production of vaccines have faced some selling today.

The shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (up 9.51%), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (up 8.2%), American Airlines Group (up 7.9%), and others were on the rise today. Meanwhile, Pfizer (down 5.1%), Moderna (down 13.5%), BioNTech (down 18.7%), and AstraZeneca (down 1.67%) went into negative territory.

For the first time since February, the FTSEurofirst 300 index had added almost 1% by the time the article was published. European stocks were also gaining ground, with Germany's DAX trading higher by 2.10%, France's CAC 40 rising by 2.35%, and Britain's FTSE 100 adding 1.19%. The US dollar was growing against the Japanese yen, and even the Australian dollar was in high demand. This market recovery was possible thanks to Dr. Fauci and his positive statement.

Also on Monday, China's central bank was reported to make another attempt to stimulate its economy first time since July. The Chinese regulator is going to fulfill its plan by reducing the amount of cash held in bank reserves.

Diversified Chinese investment holding Evergrande is currently on the brink of a crisis, thus maintaining uncertainty in the real estate sector in China. However, based on the strong imports data of China's largest real estate operator, there is strong domestic demand in the country today. Evergrande shares jumped by 1.7% from yesterday's record low.

Australia's S&P/ASX200 was up by 0.95% today, while Japan's Nikkei increased by 2.1%. The main Asian index MSCI (excluding Japan) was down by about 5% this year. Hong Kong markets are showing the biggest losses, while India and Taiwan stocks look more profitable.

The US stock indices were also showing rapid growth at the beginning of the trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.23%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed by 1.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped by 2.45%.