July 14. Bitcoin can grow to $37 thousand by August

On Tuesday, the main cryptocurrency disappointed investors again, dipping to the lowest value in 5 days. The asset price fell below $32 thousand and continued to move sluggishly down this morning.

Another drop in bitcoin occurred against the background of yesterday's publication of data on inflation in the United States. The price increase, which has reached a record level since 2018, may provoke a change in the current course of the US Federal Reserve in the direction of tightening monetary policy. And this is a negative agenda for risky assets, including digital currencies.

At the same time, analysts note that the cryptocurrency market is already very tired of bad news. This is evidenced by the amorphous reaction of the market to the latest unfavorable events for it. Investors, for example, almost ignored the next comments of the Chinese government about cryptocurrencies.

Traders also reacted coolly to the campaign launched by the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries against the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. The "war" affected only the interests of residents of these states, throwing them problems with replenishing their accounts.

However, the mentioned battles did not affect the affairs of the exchange itself in any way. The dynamics of Binance Coin is proof of this: over the past week, the asset has demonstrated the best performance among the digital currencies in the top 10.

On this basis, some experts believe that the probability of the cancellation of the stimulating policy in the United States, as well as the work initiated by the Fed in the field of regulating the crypto industry, should not exert super-strong pressure on bitcoin and other coins.

This opinion is shared by the head of the Avanti cryptocurrency bank, Caitlin Long. Yesterday, she said that the US regulator is going to complicate access to payment systems and bank accounts for companies whose activities are related to digital assets.

On July 13, the stage of the public opinion poll on the document, the adoption of which was initiated by the Federal Reserve, was completed. This project will determine the principles on the basis of which requests for access to the services of the regulator will be evaluated.

According to the Wall Street veteran, the repression has already begun, but it will not directly affect bitcoin and other assets, but at the same time, of course, intermediaries will suffer.

The expert believes that if the document is adopted, the situation of 4 years ago may repeat, when many crypto companies lost their bank deposits.

The forecast of the head of the ICB Fund investment department, Aaron Chomsky, is also positive. He is confident that in the long term, the digital asset market is waiting for growth, despite the possible tightening of conditions for the crypto industry by the US Federal Reserve.

The expert is also optimistic about the medium-term dynamics of the main virtual coin. According to him, by August, the price of bitcoin can soar to $37 thousand.

The expert concluded that on-chain indicators indicate that the mood of many investors, including those who suffered from the relocation of miners from China, has changed. Traders have switched from selling to accumulating assets, which increases the probability of a bullish trend.

At the same time, Chomsky sees great growth potential in the main competitor of bitcoin. In his opinion, by the end of July, Ethereum is able to reach the $2,500 mark. The launch of the "London" update in the official altcoin network as part of its transition to the 2.0 protocol will serve as a springboard for the asset.

American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9%

According to CNBC, while many of the country's largest companies reported high net income and revenue figures amid the economic recovery, the stock market response has generally been subdued.

Statistics released on Friday indicated unexpected growth in US retail sales last month.

US retail sales rose 0.6% in June from the previous month, the country's Commerce Department said. Experts predicted an average decline of 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index in the US in July fell to 80.8 points from 85.5 points a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this indicator. This is the lowest figure since February this year. Meanwhile, analysts on average predicted an increase to 86.5 points. The Wall Street Journal respondents had expected growth to 86.3 points.

E-Trade Financial's managing director of investment strategy, Mike Levengart, noted that the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence appears to have overshadowed upbeat earnings reports and retail sales growth data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading dropped by 299.17 points (0.86%) and amounted to 34687.85 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 lost 32.87 points (0.75%), down to 4327.16 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 115.90 points (0.80%) to 14,427.24 points.

Over the week, the Dow fell 0.52%, the S&P 500 fell 0.97%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.87%.

Charles Schwab Corp. decreased by 2.4%, although the American banking and brokerage company almost doubled its net profit in the second quarter, while its revenue was better than expected.

Intel Corp. fell in price by 1.5%. One of the world's leading manufacturers of computer components is allegedly in talks to buy chip maker GlobalFoundries for $ 30 billion.

Moderna Inc. have risen in price by 10.3%. The shares of the American biotech company will be included in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices said. The changes will come into effect on July 21st. Moderna will replace Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. AstraZeneca Plc, a Swedish-British pharmaceutical company, is in the process of acquiring Alexion, with completion expected shortly. Alexion Pharmaceuticals was down 0.3%.

American stock indices rose by 1.5-1.6%

Statistics released on Tuesday indicated a significantly larger-than-expected growth in the number of new buildings in the United States in the past month.

The number of homes that began construction in the United States in June increased by 6.3% from the previous month to 1.643 million at an annual rate, the country's Department of Commerce said. This is the highest figure for the last three months. Analysts' median forecast was for a 1.2% increase in the last month, according to surveys by Trading Economics and MarketWatch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading rose by 549.95 points (1.62%) and amounted to 34511.99 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 gained 64.57 points (1.52%), rising to 4323.06 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 223.89 points (1.57%) to 14498.88 points.

A number of shares, which dropped significantly on Monday, rose steadily on Tuesday. United Airlines Holdings Inc. increased by 6.6%, Delta Air Lines Inc. rose 5.5%, American Airlines Group Inc. increased by 8.4%.

Royal Caribbean Group shares rose 7.7%, capitalization of Carnival Corp. increased by 7.5%.

On Tuesday, shares of major American banks also rose in price: JPMorgan Chase & Co. added 1.9%, Bank of America Corp. - 2.1%.

Halliburton Co. increased by 3.7%. The American oilfield services company returned to profitable levels in the second quarter, its size per share exceeded its forecast.

International Business Machines (IBM) shares rose 1.5%. The company increased its revenue in the second quarter of 2021 by 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Revenue growth was recorded for the second quarter in a row, which encouraged investors, as the figure was falling in the previous four quarters. Over the past 34 quarters to the beginning of this year, IBM recorded a decline in revenue in annual terms 30 times, writes MarketWatch.

Nasdaq Inc. added 2.1% in price. The exchange plans to create a separate segment for its private equity market in partnership with a group of American banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, writes The Wall Street Journal.

Comcast Corp. have risen in price by 0.8%. CEO Brian Roberts and Chairman of ViacomCBS Inc. Shari Redstone discussed the possibility of partnerships in the field of streaming in international markets, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing knowledgeable sources. ViacomCBS rose 2.3%.

July 26. China was suspected of wanting to completely ban bitcoin

Bobby Lee, one of the first crypto billionaires in China and the founder of the BTC China crypto exchange, says that he does not rule out the possibility of the Chinese authorities introducing a complete ban on the storage of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

In his interview, Lee noted that the Chinese authorities have declared war on bitcoin due to their unwillingness to deal with an unregulated financial instrument. Lee also advised miners to sell their hardware before it dropped dramatically.

At the same time, the entrepreneur is still optimistic about the future of bitcoin. Lee believes that the rate of the most popular cryptocurrency in the current year can grow to $250 thousand, and by 2025 – to one million dollars. The billionaire stressed that Bitcoin's success has never depended on China or any other country.

Recall that in mid-July, the bitcoin rate fell below $30 thousand. A similar dynamic was associated with news from China, which banned large financial institutions in the country from conducting operations with cryptocurrency. However, then the cryptocurrency rate recovered and approached $40 thousand amid growing interest in the asset from Elon Musk, Katie Wood and Amazon.

July 28. ME shares rise amid recovery in Chinese exchanges

Emerging market equities rallied Wednesday after declining 5% in the previous three sessions. The reason for the strengthening was the completion of sales in the Chinese stock markets. Now the focus of market participants' attention is the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, at which, possibly, signals about the curtailment of incentives will sound.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.5%. Exchanges in Turkey and Eastern Europe rose 0.4-0.6%. Additional support for emerging market currencies was brought by the general weakness of the US dollar and a narrow range of its fluctuations ahead of an important meeting of the regulator.

In particular, the Chinese yuan rose for the first time in five sessions, to 6,512.

The Turkish lira rose to 8.5665. The Hungarian forint retreated from three-month lows after the central bank raised rates by 30 basis points to 1.2%, stronger than expected. The South African rand rose to 14.8203.

July 30. US stock indices decline on macroeconomic statistics

Major US stock indexes are falling on Friday after the publication of statistics on GDP and personal income.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 34.981 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index fell 0.92% to 14.645,9 points, and the S&P 500 broad market index fell 0.50% to 4.397,6 points.

Market participants analyze US macroeconomic data. A day before the country's Ministry of Commerce published statistics on GDP, which came out worse than analysts' expectations. In the second quarter, the US economy grew 6.5% year-over-year, while analysts had forecast 8.5% growth.

Today, the US Department of Commerce published data according to which incomes of the country's population in June increased by 0.1% versus May, although experts had expected a decline of 0.3%. Consumer expenses in the reporting period increased by 1% against the forecast of growth by 0.7%.

Additional interest today is caused by statistics on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan: according to the final estimate, the index fell to 81.2 points from the June level of 85.5 points. Analysts had expected the indicator to remain at the level of the initial estimate, which showed a decline to 80.8 points.

August 3. IMF has allocated a record amount for economic recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will allocate SDR 456 billion (the unit of calculation of the fund itself, approximately $650 billion) from its reserves. The head of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, said that this is a record amount of the fund's distribution in its history.

Georgieva stressed that the decision to inject the largest amount of funds into the world economy is historic.

It is noted that the funds will be transferred to the member countries of the fund in proportion to quotas. Of the $650 billion, a portion of $275 billion will go to developing countries and emerging markets. The IMF is confident that the disbursement will help meet the long-term global need for reserves, build confidence and strengthen the resilience of the global economy.

Recall, according to the July forecast of the IMF, the world economy this year will grow by 6%, next year – by 4.9%. For developing countries, the forecast was lowered by 0.4 percentage points – to 6.3%.

August 06. American stock indices rose 0.6-0.8%

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week fell by 14 thousand, that is, to 385 thousand people, according to a report from the US Department of Labor. This is the minimum level for the month. Analysts on average expected a decline to 384 thousand.

Meanwhile, the US trade deficit in June 2021 was $ 75.7 billion, up from a revised $ 71 billion in May, according to the country's Commerce Department. Experts on average expected the US foreign trade deficit to increase to $ 73.9 billion in June from the previously announced $ 71.2 billion in May.

Traders continue to closely monitor the worldwide spread of the new COVID-19 delta strain in an attempt to assess the potential impact on the global economy. The number of registered infections with the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world as of Thursday morning was 200 million 239 thousand 381, the American Johns Hopkins University reported. Since the beginning of the spread of the virus, the number of victims of diseases related to COVID-19 has reached 4 million 256 thousand 797 people.

Also in the spotlight are the statistics on the labor market, the publication of which is expected on Friday. Experts suggest that they will be key for the Federal Reserve System (FRS) against the background of the fact that the regulator is considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy.

According to investment strategist Edward Jones Angelo Kurkafas, this will be a big event this week, as it will directly affect the Fed's actions. Tomorrow's data and September's are critically important for the representatives of the regulator's management before deciding on the curtailment of stimulus measures and when and at what pace to implement it.

By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 271.58 points (0.78%) and amounted to 35,064.25 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 gained 26.44 points (0.60%), rising to 4429.10 points. The indicator has renewed its all-time high.

The Nasdaq Composite rose by 114.58 points (0.78%) and amounted to 14895.12 points.

Uber Technologies shares rose 3%. The American taxi-ordering and food delivery company hit profitable levels in the second quarter of 2021 thanks to an unrealized revenue of about $ 1.9 billion from a revaluation of its stake in Didi Global Inc. and Aurora Innovation Inc.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. share price rose by 2%. The American shale producer cut its net loss in the second quarter of 2021 by 3.5 times compared to the previous quarter amid rising oil and gas prices.

Electronic Arts Inc. fell in price by 2.2%. One of the leading PC game manufacturers in the world reduced its net profit in the first financial quarter by 44%, but increased its revenue.

Etsy Inc. decreased by 9.7%, although the US online trading platform increased net income and revenue in the second quarter stronger than expected.

Moderna Inc. declined 0.7%, despite the fact that the American biotech company reached profitable levels in the second quarter of 2021. At the same time, profit significantly exceeded expectations on the background of the sale of 199 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine developed by the company.

August 10. Bitcoin Price Prediction: $100,000 In Near Future

The first cryptocurrency is about to break the record again. It is expected to rise to $ 50,000. At the same time, the value of $100,000 is not the limit for bitcoin, experts believe.

In the last month of summer, the outlook for the digital asset market is positive. Many marketeers expect the uptrend from the BTC to continue, given the fact that it periodically demonstrated growth during the summer. The positive trend of the last few days indicates the bullish mood on the crypto market. Traders and investors expect BTC to return to the $ 50,000 level, which kicked off a massive Bitcoin sell-off in May this year.

According to technical analysis, the leading digital asset received a bullish momentum at the support level near the 200-day moving average. This happened following the resistance level breakout of flat near $ 40,000. On Tuesday morning, Bitcoin was trading at $45,701, giving hope for further growth.

According to analysts, over the past month, cryptocurrency has risen in price by 33%. And this is only the start. According to experts, the successful implementation of the London hard fork on the Ethereum network became the driver of the Bitcoin's growth. This helped Ethereum to rise, giving Bitcoin a chance for similar growth.

At the moment, the crypto market is far from euphoric, but it is on a positive wave. According to Fairlead Strategies experts, the leading digital asset has successfully overcome three resistance levels and is ready to move on. Over the past three weeks, the rise in price of bitcoin occurred at a gigantic pace. If this rate is maintained, it will be able to rise to $ 51,000, Fairlead Strategies emphasize. Currency strategists for Bloomberg Intelligence proceeded further with their forecasts. According to Mike McGlone, the capabilities of the first cryptocurrency are truly limitless. A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst claims that BTC will reach $100,000 in the near future.

Only negative economic factors can interrupt the success of the first cryptocurrency, experts say. They are mainly related to the current monetary strategy of the Federal Reserve and the tough policy of the American authorities. It should be noted that the White House has set a course for strengthening economic and political control. Cryptocurrencies also fell into the scope of its activity. The main tasks of the American authorities are to increase taxes on digital assets and abandon anonymity in the cryptosphere.

However, positive initiatives can lead to negative consequences, experts warn. On the one hand, risks for investors are reduced and the transparency of cryptocurrency transactions increases, and on the other hand, there is an opportunity for various frauds and a number of initiatives that can redound on holders of digital currencies. This particularly applies to the increase in taxes to financially support the American economy, which is showing long-awaited signs of recovery and rebound.

August 12. Macroeconomic indicators of Great Britain

Today was quite rich in macroeconomic publications from the UK.

According to a report by the UK's National Statistical Office (ONS), the country's GDP growth rate increased by 1% in June 2021, compared to 0.6% growth in the previous month (revised from 0.8%). Analysts had forecast a 0.8% rise in the indicator.

UK GDP in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 4.8% qoq after falling by 1.6% in the first quarter (revised from -1.5%). The statistics were in line with analysts' forecasts.

In addition, the department provided data on industrial production in Britain. Industrial production in June fell 0.7% month-on-month after rising 0.6% in May (revised from 0.8%). Analysts predicted a growth of 0.3%. In annual terms, the indicator in June increased by 8.3%.

Construction output fell 1.3% in June from the previous month, after falling 0.7% in May (revised from -0.8%). Analysts had forecast an increase in June by 1.1%. In annual terms, the value of the indicator increased by 30%.

The UK trade deficit was £ 12bn in June, compared with a £ 9.6bn deficit in May (revised from £ 8.5bn). Analysts had forecast a June trade deficit of £ 9.1 billion.

August 16. US stock exchanges decline amid risk aversion

US stock exchanges are declining on Monday amid a deterioration in risk appetite after the release of morning macro statistics from China, which did not meet expectations.

In particular, industrial production in the country in July grew weaker than expected – by only 6.4% y/y instead of the expected 7.8%, and retail sales increased by only 8.5%, although analysts had predicted an increase of 11.5%. Asian stock indexes immediately showed a decline, as well as European stock exchanges.

Analysts note that economic data from China «spoiled the mood» in the markets, and weaker retail sales and industrial production raised questions about whether it is realistic to maintain the momentum of the economic recovery.

American stock exchanges are also in the red zone. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) fell to 35,414.53, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies – to 14,652. 01, the S&P 500 broad market index – fell to 4,448. 57 points.

Tomorrow, the macrostatistics block is expected to be released directly in the United States. Data on industrial production and retail sales in July will be announced. Forecasts suggest an increase in industrial production by 0.5% m/m and a decrease in retail sales by 0.2%.

August 18. China intends to tighten regulation of excessively high incomes

The Chinese authorities intend to tighten control over «excessively high incomes» and to encourage those companies that will share their wealth with the public. At the same time, the ruling party called «common prosperity» its top priority.

This became known from the results of the meeting of the Central Commission on Financial and Economic Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party. Securing «common prosperity» has become a major topic of political debate in the country in recent months. This term is usually understood to mean moderate wealth for all, not just some. In particular, the government will force the wealthy Chinese to pay more taxes, which will help to resolve the resulting inequality in income.

Recall that China's largest entrepreneurs have begun to feel pressure from the authorities since the $34.4 billion IPO of Jack Ma's Ant Group was canceled last year, which would have been the largest in history.

A little later, the Chinese taxi aggregator Didi held an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, ignoring the ban of the authorities. Then Didi raised more than $4.4 billion. However, this did not pass without consequences, and two days after the IPO, the local regulator launched an investigation into Didi, demanding that it stop registering new users, and later demanded that the service be removed from the app stores.

In early July, the State Council of China announced a review of the rules for IPOs of Chinese companies abroad and increased supervision of those companies that have already conducted a listing. To regulate placements abroad, Beijing has already begun to develop changes in legislation that will close the loophole to circumvent restrictions on attracting foreign investment. Such news led to the fact that many large investment funds sold securities of Chinese companies that are listed in the United States.