USD/CAD Hovers at 1.3510 Despite Oil Strength, Awaits US NFP and Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair remains in a defensive stance around 1.3510, rebounding from its two-week low as it enters the European session on Friday. This resilience comes even as the pair fails to respond positively to the surging prices of Canada’s primary export, WTI crude oil, with traders keeping a close watch on upcoming US employment data and Canadian GDP figures.

Despite a broader US Dollar recovery and anticipation of crucial economic data, the USD/CAD bears persisted in the previous session. The rise in WTI crude oil prices to a multi-day high added further downward pressure to the pair. Additionally, a significant revision in Canadian Current Account data for Q1 2023 contributed to the downward momentum.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has seen a four-day consecutive increase, reaching $83.40 and hitting a three-week high. This rally is driven by a series of measures implemented by China to safeguard its economy from a return to pandemic-induced conditions. Notably, the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign reserve ratio by 2.0%, and numerous Chinese banks lowered Yuan deposit rates. Adverse weather conditions, including Hurricane Idalia in the US and concerns about a typhoon in China, along with a substantial inventory drawdown in the US, have also fueled the rise in oil prices.

Read More :   https://tinyurl.com/4wna54js

EUR/USD Tests Key Support Level as Focus Shifts to ECB and Economic Data

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a bit of a sticky situation. It’s currently hanging around the 1.0780 level, which is pretty important. It’s been at this level for about 5.5 months. Recently, there was a tiny bounce, but that excitement didn’t last long. Why? Well, the European Central Bank (ECB) folks didn’t drop any hints that they’re going to be super aggressive with their money moves. On the flip side, the US Dollar is flexing its muscles because of changes in interest rates and some big money events coming up in Europe and the US.

Philip Lane, who’s the big shot economist at the ECB, said that inflation data for August wasn’t looking so hot. But he also said we should chill a bit and wait for more data before we go making any big decisions. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, is also all about keeping our expectations for inflation in check. Other bigwigs at the ECB think the same way.

Now, over in the US, things are looking up. The US job numbers (Nonfarm Payrolls) and what Moody’s thinks about US growth have people thinking that the US might get more serious about its money game. That’s been giving the Euro a hard time. Plus, folks in the market aren’t completely sold on what China is doing with its money, and there’s some tension between China and the US, which makes the US Dollar look even better.

Read More :   http://tinyurl.com/y7xkaccs

NZD/USD Hovers Near November 2022 Lows at 0.5865-60

The NZD/USD pair is currently facing a tough challenge during the Asian trading session. It’s hovering around a level between 0.5865 and 0.5860, marking its lowest point since way back in November 2022. The main culprit behind this struggle is the strong US Dollar (USD), and the Federal Reserve (often referred to as the Fed) isn’t showing any signs of lowering interest rates anytime soon. This weighty situation has put significant pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Recent positive news about the US economy has added to the pressure. A key indicator called the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which measures the health of service-based businesses like restaurants and stores, reached its highest level since February. This signals that the US economy is performing quite well. This positive news has led many to believe that the Fed might increase interest rates again this year. When the Fed does that, it’s generally good news for the US Dollar.

However, investors are growing increasingly concerned about a couple of factors. When interest rates rise, it can become more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow money, potentially slowing down the economy. Moreover, there’s unease surrounding China’s economic slowdown. These concerns have collectively dampened the appetite for riskier assets, including the New Zealand Dollar, which is often affectionately called the Kiwi.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/4vrajmhe

AUD/USD Surges Above 0.6420 Mark as USD Weakens and Hopes for US Soft Landing Increase

During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD/USD held above the 0.6400 area, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and diminishing concerns about China’s deflation. Currently trading near 0.6425, the pair has gained 0.75% for the day.

Following the G20 Summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed greater confidence that the US can effectively manage inflation without negatively impacting the job market. Yellen also stated that inflation indicators are decreasing, with no significant wave of layoffs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also outlined the central bank’s objective of leading the economy towards a “golden path.” This scenario envisions falling inflation rates without causing a recession. Furthermore, Fed New York President John Williams emphasized the decline in inflation and the improving economic balance.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a 93% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the September meeting and a 43.5% chance of a rate hike at the November meeting. Strong US economic data from last week supports the expectation of a sustained low-interest rate environment in the US. This could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and limit the upside potential of the AUD/USD pair.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/3bujyyh9

USD/CAD Steady Above 1.3500s, Eyes on US CPI Report

In the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair found itself in a stable position, hovering just above the mid-1.3500s range. This marks a phase of consolidation for the pair, following its recent descent to a one-and-a-half-week low that was recorded just the day before.

One of the key factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics in this context is the robust performance of crude oil prices. These prices have been on an upward trajectory, currently residing close to a 10-month high. The driving force behind this surge is the mounting concerns over tightening global supplies of oil. OPEC’s decision to implement deeper supply cuts, coupled with a surge in global demand, has set the stage for further tightening of oil markets throughout the year. In light of this, the Canadian dollar, often regarded as a petrocurrency due to its close correlation with oil prices, is experiencing a boost, while the US dollar is grappling with a muted performance. This divergence between the two currencies has effectively established a level of resistance for the USD/CAD pair.

As traders navigate these market dynamics, a notable event on the horizon is the impending release of the US consumer inflation figures, scheduled for later in the North American trading session. These figures are highly anticipated as they are expected to offer crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective plans regarding interest rate hikes. The outcome of this release is poised to significantly influence the directional course of the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, the prevailing sentiment among investors is one of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining a hawkish stance and prolonging higher interest rates. This sentiment is partly rooted in the recent string of positive macroeconomic data emanating from the United States, coupled with inflation that has shown a slower-than-expected pace of increase. These factors collectively lend support to the notion of further monetary policy tightening in the near future.

Read More :   https://t.ly/79dPm

USD Index Corrects Lower to 105.30, Awaits Data

The USD Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against its major counterparts, experiences a slight retreat, trading around the 105.30 level at the week’s end. This decline comes after three consecutive daily gains that followed Thursday’s peak in the 105.40/45 range.

The subdued risk appetite across global markets puts pressure on the US dollar. European markets open with caution, still digesting the outcomes of the recent ECB meeting. Additionally, US yields, which rose on Thursday, are poised to continue their advance.

Market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming actions is undergoing a shift. Bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in November are waning, while speculation about interest rate cuts in the second quarter of the next year gains traction.

On the economic calendar, the US is set to release data on Export/Import Prices, followed by reports on Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilization, and the preliminary figures for Consumer Sentiment for the current month.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/mrxrsbut

WTI Crude Oil Continues Its Ascent Below $91.00 Amid Tight Supply Prospects

WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, is demonstrating resilience as it hovers around the $90.90 mark on Tuesday, driven primarily by a constrained supply outlook championed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nonetheless, the trajectory of WTI prices remains clouded by concerns related to a potential economic deceleration in China, which could potentially impede further price hikes.

The recent upswing in WTI prices can be unequivocally attributed to the deliberate actions of two oil giants—Saudi Arabia and Russia. These formidable players in the global oil market have unveiled their plans to sustain a tight grip on oil production cuts until the conclusion of 2023. In a committed move, Saudi Arabia has pledged to curtail its daily oil output to an approximate 1.3 million barrels, a commitment set to endure through the aforementioned timeframe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stern warning, asserting that the oil market’s deficits will only exacerbate during the fourth quarter, courtesy of the production cuts strategically orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia over the summer.

In a recent statement, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister underscored the collaborative efforts of the OPEC+ alliance in stabilizing oil markets and bolstering global energy security. Notably, no explicit target price for crude oil was disclosed. However, it was acknowledged that the market’s current volatile landscape is being significantly influenced by the prevailing ambiguity surrounding China’s oil demand, thereby casting a significant shadow on global crude prices.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/55k5pxra

Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Asia-Pacific shares followed the downward trend set by Wall Street on Thursday, as investors interpreted the latest policy statements from the US Federal Reserve as a signal of higher and longer interest rates.

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, MSCI’s (.MIAPJ0000PUS), was down 0.4% in early afternoon Hong Kong time. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slid 0.6%, China’s blue-chip (.CSI300) dipped 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s benchmark shed 1.3%.

The yield on two-year US Treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970% on Thursday morning and hovered around 5.18% by early afternoon.

Similarly, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest level in a decade, in line with the US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 16-year peak at 4.4310%.

“We anticipate further increases in bond yields in the near future due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He added that while high interest rates can cool the economy, they remain positive on long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt, as well as growth and tech stocks.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/y65khz35

AUD/USD Nears 0.6400: Focus on US Core PCE and Aussie CPI

The AUD/USD pair is currently undergoing a retracement, with its value hovering around the 0.6420 mark during the Asian trading session on Monday. This pullback comes after the pair experienced some upward momentum last week, buoyed by a combination of positive Australian PMI data and a weaker US Dollar.

Australia’s PMI data provided a mixed picture, with the Services PMI showing a modest improvement, rising to 50.5 in September from 47.8 in August. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI declined slightly from 49.6 to 48.2. The Composite Index, which combines both sectors, managed to move into expansion territory, climbing from 48.0 to 50.2.

The recent minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September meeting hinted at a dovish stance. While the RBA acknowledged the possibility of additional tightening measures if inflation persists, they also emphasized the case for maintaining the current monetary policy. This delicate balance in the RBA’s approach underscores the importance of upcoming economic data, particularly Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures, which could significantly impact the AUD/USD pair’s trajectory.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/4rc3yd5v

AUD Stays Above 0.6350 Amid Weak Retail Sales

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recently found itself in a precarious position, as it dipped to a 10-month low. However, despite this challenging situation, the AUD/USD pair managed to maintain its stance above the crucial 0.6350 mark. This resilience came in the wake of disappointing news regarding Australia’s Retail Sales data, signaling a complex financial landscape for the Aussie Dollar.

One notable factor contributing to the economic puzzle is the fluctuating monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia. Following a decline in July, the CPI rebounded, largely attributed to the relentless surge in energy prices. This unexpected rise in inflation has stirred speculation about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) possibly implementing another interest rate hike. Surprisingly, even with these promising CPI figures, the AUD struggled to gain significant traction in the forex market.

One of the major culprits behind the Australian Dollar’s struggle is the palpable increase in risk aversion sentiment among investors. This apprehension has exerted substantial downward pressure on the currency. Additionally, the AUD’s potential upside is curtailed by the drop in commodity prices, a crucial driver of the AUD/USD pair.

Read More : https://tinyurl.com/44d6d2ea

AUD Ends Winning Streak Amid RBA Policy Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) put anAUD Ends Winning Streak Amid RBA Policy Focus

BOJ Debates Exiting Easy Policy, 10-Year JGBs Weaken

Nikkei Rises in Asian Trade; China, India on Holiday

end to its recent winning streak on Monday, marking the third consecutive day of losses. The AUD/USD pair had received support earlier, primarily driven by positive Chinese PMI data released over the weekend. However, the US Dollar (USD) showed resilience following moderate economic data released on the previous Friday.

Australia’s TD Securities Inflation data for September indicated a decrease in inflation compared to August. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain the current interest rate in the upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for the same month displayed an improvement compared to July, primarily due to rising energy prices. This increase in inflation could potentially influence the RBA’s policy decision.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued to strengthen in the second trading session after the release of moderate economic data from the United States (US). Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August met expectations but was lower than July’s figures. US Core PCE MoM data fell below market consensus, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September showed improvement compared to previous figures.

Read More :    https://t.ly/1G4OA

USD Index Holds Steady Above 107.00, Focus on US Data

The USD Index (DXY) has been exhibiting a seesaw pattern, hovering above the 107.00 mark on Wednesday, as it grapples with a mix of gains and losses. This performance comes amid a keen focus on upcoming US economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

The DXY finds itself in a consolidative phase around the levels last witnessed in 2023, just above the 107.00 threshold. This situation unfolds against the backdrop of rising US yields across the yield curve and a modest uptick in overall risk sentiment. The index’s recent bullish momentum has been further fortified by hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers, as well as growing speculation of an additional interest rate hike by the central bank before the year draws to a close.

In the upcoming US trading session, a slew of critical economic data releases is set to command the market’s attention. Investors will be closely monitoring the release of the weekly Mortgage Applications data by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the ADP Employment Change report, final readings of the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), Factory Orders figures, and the always pertinent ISM Services PMI. These data points are anticipated to provide valuable insights into the state of the US economy and potentially impact the direction of the USD.

Read More : https://rb.gy/826zz