USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Governor ready to continue "hawkish" monetary policy 02.12.2024

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY or a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is recovering from a sharp decline at the end of last week, when local lows from October 21 were updated. During the Asian session, quotes are testing 150.65 for a breakout, supported by technical factors and in anticipation of key macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market at the end of the week. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 183.0 thousand in November after increasing by 12.0 thousand in the previous month, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to adjust to 0.3% from 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. In turn, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is projected to rise in December from 71.8 points to 72.9 points. On Wednesday, at 15:15 (GMT+2), the US will see a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment, with forecasts suggesting a slowdown in November from 233.0 thousand to 165.0 thousand, and at 21:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve’s monthly economic review, the Beige Book, will be released.

Meanwhile, the yen is being supported by statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that the cost of borrowing may soon be raised from the current 0.25% at a meeting on December 18-19, since macroeconomic statistics are consistent with the regulator's expectations. For now, officials will focus on implementing plans to index import tariffs announced by US President-elect Donald Trump.

Japan released Tokyo-area inflation data for November on Friday, with the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising sharply from 1.8% to 2.6%, while the CPI excluding Food and Energy rose from 1.8% to 2.2%. Investors also noted the growth in Retail Sales in October from 0.5% to 1.6%, which, however, turned out to be worse than the expected 2.2%, while Industrial Production in monthly terms increased from 1.6% to 3.0% with preliminary estimates of 3.9%. Corporate spending accelerated in the third quarter, suggesting robust domestic demand is underway as the country's economic recovery bolsters the case for further monetary tightening: capital spending rose to 8.1% from 7.4% year-on-year and was up 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The data that will be used to calculate the revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will hit the market on December 9 and are likely to confirm the domestic economy's performance in line with the Bank of Japan's forecasts.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing downwards. The price range expands, making way to new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse into an ascending plane, signaling in favor of the development of the "bullish" trend in the near future.

Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.22, 153.18, 153.87.
Support levels: 150.50, 150.00, 149.45, 148.24.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 151.50 with the target of 153.18. Stop-loss — 150.50. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 151.50 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 150.50 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 148.24. Stop-loss — 151.50.

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WTI Crude Oil: OPEC+ members extend plans to cut oil production until the end of March 2025 06.12.2024

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on WTI Crude Oil for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the morning session, the price of WTI Crude Oil slightly declined, testing 68.00, and returned to the beginning of the week amid expectations of American macroeconomic statistics.

So, today at 15:30 (GMT+2), November data on the labor market is due, which may affect the decisions of the US Fed on monetary policy. Forecasts suggest an increase in nonfarm payrolls from 12.0K to 202.0K and unemployment – from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings may decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM and from 4.0% to 3.9% YoY. At 17:00 (GMT+2), investors will turn their attention to the December consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which experts expect to accelerate from 71.8 points to 73.0 points.

Traders are assessing the results of the 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting. The participants extended the additional voluntary oil production cut of 2.2M barrels per day, introduced in November 2023, until the end of March to maintain stability and balance in the oil market. Analysts attribute this decision to seasonal changes but point out that optimistic forecasts regarding the pace of global economic recovery are not coming true. Some support for the quotes was provided by the report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which reflected a change in oil reserves for the week of November 29 from –1.844M barrels to –5.073M barrels compared to preliminary estimates of –1.0KM barrels.

The market is in a correction. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased from 193.9K to 200.4K. As for the balance of sellers and buyers, this week reflects a significant influx of investors in all categories, last observed in August. The balance of producers was 434.913K for the “bulls” against 356.858K for the “bears”, buyers increased their positions by 4.178K, and sellers – by 11.113K.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are slightly decreasing: the price range is expanding from below, letting the “bears” renew local lows. The MACD indicator is decreasing, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is approaching “20,” indicating the asset may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 68.57, 69.06, 70.00, 71.00.
Support levels: 67.53, 67.00, 66.48, 66.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 67.53, with the target at 66.48. Stop loss — 68.25. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Long positions may be opened after a rebound from 67.53 and a breakout of 68.57, with the target at 70.00. Stop loss — 67.80.

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EUR/USD: analysts predict cuts in all three key interest rates at tomorrow's ECB meeting 11.12.2024

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near 1.0520. Market activity remains quite low as market participants await the release of key macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the US.

Forecasts suggest a slight increase in the Consumer Price Index in November from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year and from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month, while the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy could be fixed at 3.3% and 0.3%, respectively. However, analysts note that these data are unlikely to significantly change the level of expectations regarding the expected reduction in borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the US Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for December 17-18. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at almost 90.0%. Meanwhile, European investors are assessing the inflation data released yesterday in Germany: the Consumer Price Index fell 0.2% month-on-month and rose 2.2% year-on-year, in line with market forecasts and October data, while the Harmonized CPI fell by 0.7% and rose by 2.4%, respectively.

Tomorrow, at 15:15 (GMT+2), the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25-basis-point cut in its key, marginal and deposit rates to 3.15%, 3.40% and 3.00%, respectively, amid weak growth in major economies such as Germany and France, where business sentiment reflects persistent weakness, particularly in the manufacturing and services sectors. Nevertheless, analysts note the effectiveness of the regulator's monetary policy: inflation in the eurozone remains steadily below the target of 2.0% — the Consumer Price Index in annual terms accelerated in November from 2.0% to 2.3%, which coincided with market forecasts, and in monthly terms it lost 0.3% after a correction of 0.3% in the previous month, while the Core CPI adjusted from 2.7% to 2.8% in annual terms and decreased by 0.6% after growing by 0.2% in monthly terms. At 17:15 (GMT+2), ECB President Christine Lagarde will comment on the results of the monetary policy meeting, where investors hope to get hints about the further prospects for the region's economy in the context of global instability, as well as about the next steps of financial authorities.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart demonstrate mostly flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD histogram is moderately growing keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, maintains a relatively confident downward direction, signaling in favor of further development of "bearish" dynamics in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.0554, 1.0600, 1.0629, 1.0665.
Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0500 with the target at 1.0400. Stop-loss — 1.0554. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The return of the "bullish" trend with the breakout of 1.0554 may become a signal for new purchases with the target of 1.0665. Stop-loss — 1.0500.

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Apple Inc.: technical analysis 16.12.2024

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Apple Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of Apple Inc., a giant in the development and sale of personal and tablet computers, are moving in a corrective trend at 248.00.

On the daily chart, the price is within the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 253.00–228.00, approaching the resistance line.

On the four-hour chart, the quotes can break the year’s high of 251.00. Then, 270.00 will be the next resistance level.

Technical indicators are ready to strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO histogram forms ascending bars in the positive zone.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price consolidates above 251.00, with the target at 266.00 and stop loss 245.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 244.00, with the target at 230.00. Stop loss is above 250.00.

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