GBP/USD: the pound develops corrective growth 09.10.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The GBP/USD pair is holding near 1.2200 amid the bank holidays in the US and Canadian markets. At the same time, trading participants continue to evaluate the September report on the American labor market, published on Friday, trying to predict the vector of the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

In September, the American economy managed to create 336.0 thousand new jobs, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts of 170.0 thousand, while in the previous month the figure was 227.0 thousand. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.8%, while analysts expected 3.7%, and the Average Hourly Earnings added 0.2% in monthly terms and 4.2% in annual terms, which also turned out to be worse than the expected levels of 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively. After the publication of such heterogeneous data, the market revised its forecasts for a further increase in borrowing costs by the American regulator until the end of this year. Now about 42.0% of analysts are in favor of adjusting the interest rate by 25 basis points, while on Thursday the probability of such an outcome was estimated at 35.0%. At the same time, experts also expect that in 2024 the Fed will launch a rate reduction program somewhat later.

In turn, macroeconomic data from the UK, presented on Friday, had virtually no impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The Halifax Housing Price Index in September decreased by 0.4% after -1.8% a month earlier with a forecast of -0.8%, and in quarterly terms the indicator decreased by 4.7% after -4.5%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady decline. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of an overbought pound in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2300, 1.2350, 1.2400.
Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2150, 1.2106, 1.2036.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.2200 with the target at 1.2106. Stop-loss — 1.2240. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.2200 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.2240 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.2350. Stop-loss — 1.2200.

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The Walt Disney Co.: technical analysis 13.10.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on The Walt Disney Co. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of The Walt Disney Co., one of the leaders in the global entertainment industry, are trading within a corrective trend at 84.00.

On the daily chart, the price is moving in a global downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 86.00–78.00, forming a growth wave.

On the four-hour chart, after reaching the previous local high of 85.00, the quotes slowed and are gaining trading volumes to test the resistance level of the global channel of 86.00.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars, rising in the buy zone.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal, growth, and consolidation of the price above 86.00 with the target at 90.50. Stop loss – 84.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 82.20 with the target at 78.50. Stop loss – 84.00.

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USD/CAD: the instrument develops ambiguous trading dynamics 18.10.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate decline, taking a lead from the "bullish" dynamics of Tuesday, when the instrument briefly updated local highs from October 6.

The reason for the emergence of active growth the day before was the publication of inflation data in Canada: Consumer Price Index in September fell by 0.1% after growing by 0.4% a month earlier, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%, and in annual terms the indicator adjusted from 4.0% to 3.8%. In turn, Core CPI slowed down from 3.3% to 2.8%. Further weakening of price pressures reduces the prospects for an increase in borrowing costs from the Bank of Canada until the end of this year.

The US dollar receives support from macroeconomic statistics presented the day before. Thus, Retail Sales volumes in September added 0.7% after an increase of 0.8% in the previous month with a forecast of 0.3%, and Retail Sales excluding Autos slowed down from 0.9% to 0.6% with expectations at 0.2%. Industrial Production increased by 0.3%, while experts expected zero dynamics. A month earlier, the indicator was also revised from 0.4% to 0.0%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting appearance of multi-directional dynamics in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards after quite active growth last week and is currently located approximately in the center of its working area.

Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.
Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.3600 with the target at 1.3500. Stop-loss — 1.3650. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 1.3600 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.3650 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 1.3750. Stop-loss — 1.3600.

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Hewlett-Packard Co.: technical analysis 23.10.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Hewlett-Packard Co. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of Hewlett-Packard Co., an American information technology giant, are moving in a corrective trend at 25.80.

On the daily chart, the price is approaching last year’s low of 23.50 as part of a global downward trend.

On the four-hour chart, the decline is developing dynamically, and a local correctional channel of 27.00–26.00 is now ending, which can act as a Flag pattern. The quotes have almost left the formation and are ready to continue moving downwards, consolidating below the year’s low of 25.00.

Technical indicators, having worked out a local correction, strengthen the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are at a stable distance from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the sell zone.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 25.00 with the target at 23.00. Stop loss – 26.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after a reversal, growth, and consolidation of the price above 27.00 with the target at 29.00. Stop loss – 26.00.

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Cisco Systems Inc.: technical analysis 27.10.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Cisco Systems Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of Cisco Systems Inc., an American manufacturer and supplier of network equipment for large holdings and telecommunications companies, are correcting at 51.10.

On the daily chart, the price remains below the support line of the global ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 54.20–57.60.

On the four-hour chart, the potential for continued decline has increased significantly since the quotes have overcome the 50.0% Fibonacci intermediate correction at 51.60, and now the nearest support level is 50.10 (full 61.8% Fibonacci correction), which the asset may reach soon.

Technical indicators are holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are significantly below the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the sell zone.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 50.17 with the target at 47.60. Stop loss – 52.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after a reversal, growth, and consolidation of the price above 51.65 with the target at 53.14. Stop loss – 51.00.

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EUR/USD: eurozone inflation hits two-year low 01.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0570, developing the corrective impetus of last Tuesday, when the instrument retreated from the local highs of October 24.

Pressure on the single currency is exerted by inflation data in the EU, which indicates that further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) is not yet predicted. The Consumer Price Index in the eurozone slowed down from 4.3% to 2.9% in October, which was better than market expectations at 3.1%, and in monthly terms it went from 0.3% to 0.1%. Core CPI fell from 4.5% to 4.2% in annual terms and remained unchanged at 0.2% in monthly terms. Statistics confirm that the regulator’s long-term "hawkish" monetary policy (in September, the ECB raised three key indicators for the tenth time in a row: the rate on main refinancing operations is 4.5%, on the marginal lending facility it is 4.75%, and on the deposit facility it amounted to 4.0%) puts significant pressure on households, which are increasingly postponing purchases due to a sharp increase in borrowing costs. The President of the European regulator, Christine Lagarde, believes that the region’s economy will remain weak until the end of 2023, but then will begin to recover rapidly, since by keeping borrowing costs at current levels for a long time, the regulator will be able to return inflation to the target of 2.0%.

At the same time, the euro also reacted negatively to statistics on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the eurozone. In the third quarter, the indicator slowed down from 0.5% to 0.1% in annual terms, while experts expected 0.2%, and in quarterly terms, GDP amounted to -0.1% after growing by 0.1% in the previous period. Another negative factor for the instrument was data from Germany, where annual Retail Sales volumes decreased by 4.3% in September after -2.3% a month earlier, while in monthly terms the value decreased by 0.8% after -1.2%.

The focus of investors' attention today will be the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Analysts do not expect a tightening of monetary conditions, but the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, is likely to again indicate the possibility of such a scenario in the future. Also today, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Employment Change will be published: forecasts suggest an increase from 89.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from above, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is slightly strengthening keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from the level of "20" at the beginning of this week, reversed horizontally, indicating an approximate balance of power in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0630, 1.0660, 1.0700.
Support levels: 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0450.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 1.0561 with the target at 1.0500. Stop-loss — 1.0600. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.0561 as from support followed by a breakout of 1.0600 may become a signal for opening long positions with the target at 1.0660. Stop-loss — 1.0561.

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EUR/USD: the European currency updates local highs 06.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair shows insignificant growth, developing the "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0735 for a breakout, updating the local highs from September 14.

Investors are focusing on the October US labor market report, published on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls decreased from 297.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 180.0 thousand. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings slowed down from 0.3% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 4.3% to 4.1% in annual terms, and the Unemployment Rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. Investors also paid attention to the decline in business activity: the Services PMI from S&P Global in October adjusted from 50.9 points to 50.6 points, while analysts did not expect changes, and the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) went down from 53.6 points to 51.8 points, which also turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points.

In turn, Exports from Germany lost 2.4% in September after growing by 0.1% in the previous month, while experts expected -1.1%, and Imports fell by 1.7% after -0.3% with a forecast of 0.5%. Thus, Germany's trade surplus in September decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros, with expectations at 16.3 billion euros. As analysts note, trade is no longer a driver of sustainable growth in the German economy and is even hindering its recovery, but the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, expressed hope that the EU will avoid a recession.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" activity at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought euro in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0850.
Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 1.0765 with the target of 1.0850. Stop-loss — 1.0720. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

The return of a "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 1.0700 may become a signal for new short positions with the target at 1.0600. Stop-loss — 1.0765.

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AUD/USD: the RBA projects inflation to remain at 4.5% until the end of this year 10.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair is developing a confident downward trend, holding in the area of 0.6361. The instrument is preparing to end the week with the strongest decline in the last few years, updating local lows from November 1.

Pressure on quotes increased after the "hawkish" speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated the likelihood of another increase in borrowing costs the day before if the rate of decline in inflation pressure slows down. The official commented on the strong growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter, noting that this could negatively affect the unstable dynamics in the overheated labor market. At the same time, the regulator expects a further slowdown in the growth rate of the national economy in the coming quarters, so the situation should stabilize.

In turn, the Australian currency was supported by signals that the price of iron ore, which remains one of Australia's main exports, reached 16-month highs amid expectations of a recovery in demand among major importers, primarily from China. The macroeconomic statistics published the day before reflected a decrease in the Chinese Consumer Price Index in October by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% in the previous month, while analysts expected zero dynamics to appear, and in annual terms the indicator slowed down by 0.2% with a forecast of –0.1%.

Investors today took notice of the monetary policy report from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in which officials projected that inflation would remain at 4.5% until the end of December and would not fall below 3.0% in 2025, and consumption households, despite record annual growth in the working-age population, might fall by 2.8%. Last Tuesday, the RBA decided to interrupt a four-month pause in tightening monetary policy and increase the interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35%, and in the follow-up statement, officials pointed out the risks of maintaining the Consumer Price Index at peak values for a long time but they did not confirm the need to further increase the cost of borrowing.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic retains a steady downtrend but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold Australian dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6379, 0.6400, 0.6425, 0.6450.
Support levels: 0.6356, 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6284.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.6356 with the target at 0.6300. Stop-loss — 0.6379. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.6356 as from support followed by a breakout of 0.6379 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 0.6425. Stop-loss — 0.6356.

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Meta Platforms Inc.: technical analysis 15.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Meta Platforms Inc. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of Meta Platforms Inc., which owns the world’s largest social network Facebook, are moving within a corrective trend around the level of 336.00.

An upward trend is forming on the daily chart, within which the price has left the sideways channel of 328.00–278.00.

On the four-hour chart, the prospects for continued growth have increased significantly after the quotes consolidated above the local high of 330.00, and now there are practically no obstacles left on the way to the area of 370.00.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars, rising in the buy zone.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 344.00 with the target at 370.00. Stop loss – 335.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 328.00 with the target at 310.00. Stop loss – 335.00.

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ExxonMobil Corp.: technical analysis 20.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on ExxonMobil Corp. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of ExxonMobil Corp., an American oil company, are trading in a corrective trend at 105.00.

On the daily chart, the price is near the upper border of the downward corridor 100.00–105.00.

On the four-hour chart, the quotes renewed their low of 102.00, after which they corrected upward but failed to consolidate above the local high of 108.00. The likelihood of continued decline is confirmed by the proximity of the year’s low of 97.00, which may be renewed this week.

Technical indicators are holding a sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars below the transition level.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 102.20 with the target at 97.80. Stop loss – 105.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 106.80 with the target at 110.70. Stop loss is around 105.00.

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General Electric Co.: technical analysis 24.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on General Electric Co. for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Shares of General Electric Co., an American diversified corporation, are intensifying the correction, trading at 119.00.

On the daily chart, the price has left the local downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 113.00–102.00, breaking the resistance line, and is moving in an upward trend.

On the four-hour chart, after the quotes consolidated above the annual high of 117.00, there are no serious obstacles to growth to the initial trend level of 61.8% in the Fibonacci extension around 137.00.

Technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram forms rising bars in the buy zone.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 122.00 with the target at 137.00. Stop loss – 117.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 117.00 with the target at 107.50. Stop loss – 121.00.

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XAU/USD: gold prices update May highs 29.11.2023

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The XAU/USD pair shows slight growth, continuing the development of upward dynamics in the short term and updating the local highs of early May. The instrument is testing 2050.00 for a breakout, while the US currency remains under moderate pressure amid expectations for the completion of the US Federal Reserve's "hawkish" monetary policy. The day before, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Christopher Waller noted that he does not rule out the possibility of easing monetary conditions in the next few months if inflation continues its downward trend. At the same time, other representatives of the Fed point to the possibility of renewed price increases, in particular for energy resources.

Today, the focus of investors’ attention will be updated statistics on the dynamics of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter, as well as the economic review from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called Beige Book, and tomorrow, October data on price indices for personal consumption expenditures, which are actively used by the regulator to build its own inflation forecasts, will be released. In annual terms, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures is expected to decrease from 3.7% to 3.5%, and in monthly terms from 0.3% to 0.2%. Statistics on Personal Income and Spending will also be presented: analysts expect a slowdown in income from 0.3% to 0.2%, and in spending from 0.7% to 0.2%.

There is a correction in the gold contract market. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold increased to 171.7 thousand from 155.4 thousand a week earlier. Probably, sellers compensated for the drawdown of last week, when there was a slight outflow of short positions: the balance of swap dealers amounted to 78.573 thousand for the "bulls" versus 234.506 thousand for the "bears". Last week, buyers reduced the number of contracts by 4.652 thousand, and sellers increased them by 10.682 thousand, which indicates not a new trend, but rather compensation for the dynamics when positions were distributed in the opposite order.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating overbought gold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2050.00, 2065.00, 2085.00, 2100.00.
Support levels: 2030.00, 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 2050.00 with the target of 2085.00. Stop-loss — 2030.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 2050.00 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 2030.00 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 2000.00. Stop-loss — 2045.00.

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