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Shenzhen Topped as the Most Innovative City in China, says HSBC
Based on the new research led by the HSBC, companies that are located at Shenzhen in Southern China are considered the most innovative, even though a lot of traditional manufacturers shifted into the new economy along with the growing start-up sectors.
For ages, policymakers in the country are expecting for further innovation in order to heightened growth. This was reiterated by President Xi Jinping during his policy address during Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Congress in October, urging for greater modernization from Chinese firms and to acquire big data as well as to improve internet technologies and artificial intelligence.
The HSBC report assessed the “innovative power” of more or less 1,200 companies in China that were included in the list, the result shows that Shenzhen-based businesses obtained the highest average score. The main category for the assessment is gauged according to the range of its research and development investment statistics, total patent applications, as well as the inventive business model compared with other features.
The city was hailed as the most competitive urban in China, and ranked sixth most competitive all over the world, as shown in a separate data from the UN and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released last month.
Shenzhen is composed of more than one million private companies which includes business giants such as Tencent Holdings, BYD Auto Co., and Huawei and ZTE.
Other reports also presented that few of industrial provinces take after the ranking, particularly the plateau province of Shanxi, the northern Chinese province is known for its coal mining livelihood. Also, the northeastern Liaoning province is recognized for ferrous metals production and mining. The districts gained 34 percent and 29 percent in 2016, respectively, despite low levels of inflation.
Generally, the current “innovative power” from Beijing-based companies increased by 13 percent compared with the survey last year.
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PRC Besets with Bubble Risk Due to Excessive Reserves
The People's republic of China is confronted with bubble risk which was mainly due to higher money supply, as mentioned on Thursday by the deputy chairman of the economic and finance committee of the National People’s Congress.
Huang being the appointed deputy chairman is also considered as the top financial expert where he noted the necessity to change the reserve system of the country’s foreign exchange. At the same time, the central bank needs to be independent in implementing the monetary policy.
Increasing Japan Exports in October due to High Export Demand
The exports from Japan are anticipated to increase for eleven consecutive months in October which would be supported by a strong demand from cars and electronic manufacturing machinery since they are the third biggest economy which is in the path to recovery according to the survey from Reuters on Friday.
The gross domestic product of the Asian country improved for seven uninterrupted months until the third quarter because of high exports demand such as cars and electronic parts within Asia and to the United States. Economists forecast that the economy will improve at a moderate pace as exports maintain the solid trend. Although, Japan is facing problems as they aspire to raise low consumer spending and inflation.
Exports are predicted to increase by 15.8 percent in October compared last year based on the survey of 20 economists because of overseas demand for cars and increase in semiconductor manufacturing tools.
Imports increased 20.2 percent in October than last year. This has been the quickest pace since January 2014 with more expensive oil prices which also increased the imports costs according to the survey.
The trade balance would possibly be at 330.0 billion yen or $2.93 billion in October. A decline was seen from the 667.7 billion yen in September. Exports are forecasted to continuously increase since the external factors are kept unchanged in the fourth quarter as mentioned by the chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.
The finance ministry will publish the trade data at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on Monday (23.50 GMT Sunday). The latest economic data saying that Japan could get free from deflation which they were faced with for years according to the analysis from the government which was submitted to the advisory panel on Thursday.
The government of Japan is anticipated to publicized their economic schemes by end of the year with a goal to have a higher investment in skills training and more productivity.
VAT Returns of Small Firms Incorporates to UK GDP Calculation
The Office for National Statistics evaluates the British economy by overhauling its way which includes huge VAT amounts from smaller companies for the first time. In the previous survey, the gross domestic product of the country was mainly based on the turnover of 45,000 largest firms. Since December, the data from the third of Britain’s 1.8m VAT returns will also be included in the turnover for the calculation of official GDP results.
With this, assessing UK economic growth will have dramatic changes for this could provide further insights from particular areas and industries. A higher proportion of VAT returns involves small businesses with a total of 98pc of UK companies.
In the past estimates of GDP, pubs and restaurants sectors, particularly "food and beverage service activities" have high levels according to the 172 monthly poll and 28,000 tax returns.
According to the ONS, a much more detailed data will provide a comprehensive output of pubs, restaurants and takeaways and restaurants among various regions. The first new estimate encompasses VAT returns coming from small and medium businesses including 100 or fewer headcounts. While survey for large companies will remain to be part of the data gathering and ONS’s report. As there is only 20 percent of smaller firms in the UK economy, which means that the data accumulated by the national statistical institute will be more accurate but the overall GDP result could possibly be not altered despite its inclusion because major firms have a greater impact.
Based on the perspective of PwC’s Economist John Hawksworth, it would be better if the Statistics authority will release GDP forecast “ with and without (the) use of the new VAT data" respectively, in order for the public to understand the difference. On the other hand, ONS chief economist Nick Vaughan announced that including additional information will be a gradual process.
Record Low Drop of Aussie After RBA November Meeting
It is still unknown when will the Reserve Bank of Australia be able to return to sufficient wages which would lift weakened inflation. At the same time, commentaries from the board push the dollar to its lowest level in five months.
During the minutes of the Reserve Bank's Melbourne Cup day, it can be concluded that they are heedful that low unemployment rate could not be directly associated with the globalization and technology and put upward pressure on inflation.
The cash rate positioned at a historic low of 1.5 percent following the November meeting when board member expressed their uncertainty on wage growth. When the unemployment rate drops, the salaries are expected to have an incremental increase. This could have a cooldown effect on the diminishing surge of the mining sector. Although the board members expressed that uncertainty with the possibility of a wage pressure and the size of its effect on the inflationary pressure.
At the same time, tension coming from strong competition and a quicker rate in productivity pickup could hamper the push through of tighter labor market conditions to inflationary pressure.
Following the release of the meeting, the Aussie dollar dropped to 75.33 US cents from 75.58 US cents which have been the lowest level since June.
As mentioned, the board members see the competitive pressures effect on the outlook for inflation is predicted to decrease down to 2.25 percent but this is still within the target range of the central bank until the middle of 2019.
In effect, it seems that the food retailers and other enterprise adjusted their business models to able to cope with cost problems. It is anticipated that the pressure on retail margins and costs will remain for a while.
On the other hand, the board member also took notice that the wages growth weakened even though the supply in the labor market is declining. Hence, there is a chance that the current wage growth would not have a direct effect on the demand for labor and be less receptive to the changes in demands for labor.
The chief economist of Royal Bank of Canada Su-Lin Ong presumed that the wages growth will reach the lowest rate in 2017.
Considering the global trend, it cannot be clearly deduced whether the pace of wage growth could be maintained.
Ong mentioned that the RBA could hold the rates at a steady pace in 2018 and proceed with increasing their prices the year after and end with two percent cash rate. She noted other factors such as weak domestic demand and variability in housing that is still far from reaching its goals amid an excessive labor market would have a minimal effect to raise the cash rate from 1.5 percent in early 2019.
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Italian Economy Gradually Improves, says Dombrovskis
The economic situation in Italy is gradually improving, however, it is also important to cut down public debt, according to European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis.
Dombrovskis is expecting that the economy will grow in 2018, otherwise, it will remain below the EU average. He mentioned that debt "remains a source of vulnerability" that holdbacks the GDP of the country by 3.8% for debt servicing.
The former Latvian prime minister stated that the Italian debt has a significant cost for the country as the current environment we are living has low-interest rates, however, changes in monetary policy upon an increase in inflation will heighten the costs which could further trigger instability. He also talks about the "structural problem" including stagnant growth and insufficient production which are the considerations with regards the reforms.
Moreover, the vice president added that there are some developments among the banks in Italy while the level of impaired credits suddenly declined this year. Due to the interposition of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) and Veneto banks, there are more or less 44 billion euros to 13.5% of the overall stock of NPLs is withdrawing from Italy’s banking system.
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Post-Brexit Economy Plan of UK to be Launch
The plan of the government in expanding the British industry prior the EU exit is scheduled to be launched later. According to official forecasts, the purpose of the industrial strategy is to revised growth which has the tendency to slow down because of UK’s low economic performance. As mentioned by Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Brexit indicates that the strategy could be considered as "even more important".
Moreover, an agreement with the MSD (Merck Sharp & Dohme) to start a UK research centre is included in the strategy. The investment cost more than £1bn with an expectation to generate 950 jobs. Based on the government’s announcement, there was a significant vote of confidence within the strategy in boosting the UK economic performance after the EU exit.
The launch of the strategy followed some days after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reported about the productivity outlook and the aggressive reduction of growth in Britain. While political allies and corporate groups believe that the solution is to acquire improved productivity and higher compensation is regarded as greater investments.
Good US Economy to be Passed to Powell
Jerome Powell is officially getting closer to becoming the next Fed Reserve Chairman. The Fed Governor said that he is not worried about another financial crisis in the banking system. Powell was asked during the Senate hearing on Tuesday if banks remain too big to fail, and he answered “No”. He noted that regulators were able to conduct positive negotiations and there could be nobody to have an idea about the previous situation in case that a run on occurred on one of these giant financial institutions.
The incoming Fed head described that regulators were left with “no practical choice” and decided to let these huge banks to fail since the entire financial system resulted in a breakdown. In 2008, the Fed together with Treasury Department organized programs that could bring liquidity to American banks during the crunch which includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup and JPMorgan (JPM). Moreover, some were unable to survive like Lehman Brothers while Bear Stearns was bought by JPM at an extremely discounted price.
At the same time, the US economy is seated in a better position compared during the Great Recession. The next Fed chair stated that the country may expand nearly at 2.5% in 2018 as reported this year. The 2 percent growth is regarded below the average level according to the majority of forecasters. Goldman Sachs also has the same prediction of 2.5% growth in the economic growth of the United States, and for the world economic outlook is expected at 4% increase.
When talking about the US labor market, J.Powell expressed that the decline in the labor force participation rate among prime-age men indicates a dull employment despite the 4.1% jobless rate, as the reduced wage growth shows slack labor market. Just like Yellen, Powell stated his fears regarding low inflation rates, stressing the importance of reaching the 2% annual target.
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U.K. Economy Forecasted to have a Moderate growth, CBI says
The tepid growth of the U.K. economy will remain for some time. This could weaken in the next years to come, as stated by the Confederation of British Industry.
The CCI current forecast says the development by 1.5 percent next year and 1.3 percent in 2019. This would be the worst annual operation since 2009 when the economy declined.
Yet, there is a drawback which will probably occur when the projections are high since they anticipate Brexit to proceed without a problem. The U.K. will most likely get to an agreement with the European Union regarding their transition deal early next year. This would take place when the Brexit leaves in March 2019.
The CBI also mentioned that the domestic demand will maintain its dovish stance in a definite time while there is economy support from net trade. This was based on the poll on Friday indicating that the U.K. manufacturing growth is strongest over four years time.
The current Money Fall contest has already started on December 4, 2017 and will end on December 8, 2017.
You can register for the next competition which will take place from December 11, 2017 to December 15, 2017.
Note:
Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.
Congratulations to all the winners!
Germany’s Optimistic Outlook due to Higher Industrial Orders
The industrial orders in Germany surged surprisingly in October because of domestic and foreign demand from non-euro zone according to the reports on Wednesday. This implies that the country will have a good momentum in the next few months.
Orders of products that are locally made increased for three consecutive months and supported by the data up by 0.5 percent in October compared last month, according to the Economy Ministry. Despite the fact that bulk orders are lower than average for the month of November.
It is anticipated for the data to decline by 0.3 percent following an upward revision of 1.2 percent in bookings for the month of September based on the survey from Reuters.
An economist described the situation to be in a good condition, given that the economy has been robust the past few months while there is a “moderate growth” in October as a good result. Although, he said that growth would not move higher amid higher books of orders and more capacity to utilize.
The German economy has gained momentum by the third quarter and has been expanding since 2010 but there are still concerns since Germany doesn’t have a new government over two months following a national election.
Conservatives representative, Chancellor Angela Merkel, lost against the far-right in the September poll. It is presumed that Social Democrats (SPD) will hopefully approve to run again the current ‘grand coalition’ after a failed attempt of alliance with the environmentalist Greens and pro-business Free Democrats.
Nevertheless, the Economy Ministry said that there is high demand for it along with record-high business confidence and positive growth in the manufacturing sector.
The orders data increased by 0.5 percent while there is 1.6 surge in contracts beyond the eurozone as it counterbalances the 1.2 drop in the bloc. Domestic contracts rallied by 0.4 percent.
Interest for both capital and consumer goods surged in October despite the demand for intermediate goods declined a bit. Comparably, there is less volatility in the past two months where it declined by 3.4 percent which is much higher than the level two months ago.
U.S. Treasury Needs to Adjust their Cash Management
The U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin publicized that there will be cash management measures to prevent a U.S. bad debt on Monday.
A letter to House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan says that two retirement funds would not be funded by the Treasury anymore. This includes the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund as mentioned in the letter. Mnuchin said that all funds would fully be compensated when the debt ceiling has been adjusted.
The U.S. Treasury is trying to assess the limit of money that it can borrow to manage the budget loss which leads to the higher spending of Taxes more than the collection from Washington and Congress has the only power to increase the limit.
There was a short-term solution of suspending the debt limit until December 8. Nevertheless, the Treasury has the capacity of paying the bills up to January as a precautionary measure according to the department.
Selected countries require the legislature to consent the periodic increases in the legal limit on the maximum amount of money that allows the federal government to borrow.
NZ Business Confidence Stayed near 8-year lows
The business sentiment in New Zealand remained near the eight-year depression in December, which caused uncertainty towards policy direction led by the new labour government based on the survey presented by the ANZ Bank.
The headline measure of the survey indicates a net 37.8 percent of respondents who expect the economy will weaken in the upcoming year. This is compared with previous poll’s pessimism level of 39.3 percent, which is the lowest recorded since the global economic crisis.
The latest ANZ business survey is the second poll that included companies reactions towards the new Labour-led administration, which take control towards the end of October and almost completed a decade ruling of center-right National Party.
On the positive note, the companies projection for their respective business is an increase for 2018 with net 15.6 percent of respondents higher versus 6.5 percent last month.
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BoE will Keep the Normal Rates After Brexit
The Bank of England allows the financial institutions in the country to proceed with their selling transactions in the United Kingdom without the need for expensive subsidiaries after Brexit, despite the divorce deal between London and Brussels becomes unsuccessful as reported by the BBC.
The decision of the central bank will be publicized at 1300 GMT on Wednesday. These would ease problems to be faced by the European banks as they offer wholesale services in London that follows New York as the world’s financial capital.
Concerns regarding their requests for business hours, the BoE haven’t responded out of it. There are unidentified reports saying that the government and sound sources that the decision is supported.
The proposal of BoE would affirm for goodwill from Britain in Brexit talks that seek to maintain London as the financial center and manage more banks.
There are more than 100 branches of lenders that operate in London which is headquartered in London. In the present, banks in Britain functions under EU “passporting” rules, which will end in March 2019 when Britain leaves the bloc.
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Changes of Working Regime Over the New Year Holidays
Dear traders,
We draw your attention to the changes in the schedule of ForexMart’s working regime during Christmas and New Year holidays*:
25 of December – markets will be closed
26 of December – trading will be resumed after 6:00 a.m.
27-29 of December – Forex trading will be conducted in a regular mode
1 of January – markets will be closed
2 of January – trading will be resumed after 6:00 a.m.
3 of January – Forex trading will be conducted in accordance with the standard schedule.
We wish you happy holidays and lucky trading with ForexMart!
* Importantly, this information is just preliminary and the schedule could be updated later.
Chinese Economy to Surpass the US in 2032
It is expected that China will outperform the American economy in the year 2032 based on a new report. Moreover, a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London noted by Bloomberg News further shows that next year India is predicted to get ahead to the United Kingdom and France and gain the fifth rank as the largest economy in dollar terms. In this regard, India is projected to be in the third place as the biggest economy in the world by 2027.
According to report, the four biggest economy by 2032 consists of China, India, Japan and the United States. In addition to it, Indonesia and South Korea will take the tenth place.
While President Donald Trump often brags about the American economy, as the president tweeted last week regarding the achievements of his administration over the previous year which includes the "Record Economy/Stock Market." Trump further mentioned that earlier in December, the tax reduction in the GOP tax bill signed last week will boost investment in the US economy and its laborers.
Bank of Spain Seen Growth in Spanish Economy
According to the central bank of Spain, robust export could possibly help increase the country’s economy by 0.8 percent quarterly rate over the past three months of 2017 amid the unfavorable consequences brought by the Catalan political crisis.
The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 3.1 percent this year, however, the government has to revise the outlook for 2018 by 2.3 percent versus the initial estimate of 2.6 percent due to risks generated from the already separated regional government of Catalan that urge of its
independence last October.
On Wednesday, the central bank further mentioned that buoyant exports generally created for the economic fallout in wealthy Catalonia. The projections and official data are scheduled to be released next month by the National Statistics Institute.
Currently, Spain is one of the fastest-growing economies of the European Union after emerging from the collapse in late 2013.
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