The main events by the morning: November 29

Steelmaking is declining in Russia. According to data for January-October 2024, steel production decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 59.1 million tons. The largest drop was shown by Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK) – by 12% and Severstal – by 8%.

China will restrict exports of tungsten, an important metal used in weapons and semiconductors starting December 1. The new rules require export licenses, which is associated with increased control over dual-use goods. These measures are being taken against the background of strained relations with the United States, which will ban its contractors from purchasing tungsten from China from 2027.

The head of the Russian Defense Ministry arrived in North Korea today. During the visit, a number of meetings with representatives of the military and military-political leadership of the DPRK are planned to discuss bilateral cooperation.

The Japanese Prime Minister announced his desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. After the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, Japan imposed sanctions against Russia, which is why Moscow refused to negotiate the status of the Kuril Islands and conclude peace. In his speech, the Prime Minister did not mention the decision to maintain these sanctions until the end of hostilities.

The Brazilian real has updated its historical low on concerns about state finances. Paired with the US dollar, the rial fell to 5.9998 per dollar. Investors are evaluating the long-awaited measures of the administration of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to ensure budget balance: spending cuts of 70 billion reais ($12 billion), personal income tax exemption for people with the lowest wages and an increase in this tax for high-income people.
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The main events by the morning: December 3

Russia will receive $1.2 billion from the BRICS bank for the first time in two years. The new BRICS Development Bank is investing $1.2 billion in four projects in Russia, according to the Finance Ministry. The funding will be directed to the preservation of cultural heritage, the development of tourism, the modernization of the judicial system and housing and communal services. Due to sanctions, funds can flow through complex financial schemes.

Trump's «peace plan» for Ukraine, the «Kellogg Plan», has leaked to the network. The media published the alleged details of the «Kellogg Plan» based on OSW Report 2024 data. The main points include lifting isolation from Russia, peace talks, economic incentives for Moscow, support for Ukraine and pressure on Kiev. There are no official confirmations yet.

Chinese banks are ceasing operations with sub-sanctioned Russian banks. Chinese financial institutions have begun to restrict interaction with Russian banks that have recently been sanctioned by the United States. The Bank of China has already imposed restrictions, and the Bank of Kunlun warns of the impending termination of payments by sub-sanctioned banks.

The construction of the last section of the Russia–China gas pipeline has been completed. China has commissioned the last section of the gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. The Nantong–Luzhi section in Jiangsu Province has become the final part of the project, which is now fully operational, according to a statement from the Chinese Pipeline Management Corporation.

The United States may lift sanctions against Bashar al-Assad to weaken Syria's ties with Iran and Russia. According to Reuters, Washington is considering lifting sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The main goal is to reduce Tehran's influence and block the supply of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024

Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data."

Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18.

On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high.
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EUR/USD Weekly Preview: CPI, PPI, ECB

In two weeks, the currency market will de facto go on a Christmas/New Year vacation, which will not end until early January. But before leaving, traders will "slam the door loudly," reacting to the key events of December.

The upcoming week is packed with significant events for the EUR/USD pair. Key November inflation data will be released in the US, and the European Central Bank will hold its final meeting of the year in Frankfurt.

Monday-Tuesday
On Monday, traders will focus on China's November inflation report. With an otherwise empty economic calendar, this release could significantly influence USD pairs, but only if the results deviate from forecasts.

In October, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.3% (forecast: 0.4%). The indicator shows a downward trend for the second month, reflecting weakening consumer demand. November's CPI is expected to rebound to 0.4%. If inflation unexpectedly slows further, the USD might gain indirect support due to heightened risk-off sentiment.

Wholesale inventory data will be published later during the US session, though it's a secondary macroeconomic indicator unlikely to significantly impact EUR/USD.

On Tuesday, the US will release the labor cost index, measuring the annual change in employer expenses per employee (this considers not only salary deductions but also taxes and payments to other funds). This lagging indicator could influence the USD only if it diverges significantly from expectations. The index is forecasted to decrease to 1.3% in Q3, following drops to 1.9% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1.

Wednesday
Wednesday brings the week's most crucial macroeconomic report: the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Given recent Federal Reserve statements, this report could determine the outcome of the Fed's January meeting and possibly the December one.

For instance, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated support for pausing the easing cycle if the data contradict forecasts of slowing inflation—that is, if the CPI and PPI accelerate again. At the same time, Waller spoke about the pause not hypothetically but in the context of the December meeting.

Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that rate hikes might resume if inflation accelerates. For the most part, the rest of the members of the U.S. central bank called for a slowdown in the pace of policy easing but did not rule out "other scenarios." Among them is Jerome Powell, who has also recently toughened his rhetoric.

In other words, the CPI is significant in current circumstances.

According to forecasts, Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% YoY (up from 2.6% in October). If realized, it could signal a reversal in the six-month downward trend seen through September. In October, the Headline CPI unexpectedly increased, and if it comes out at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone") in November, then we can already talk about a certain trend, which will not please the Fed representatives.

The Core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY. The indicator was at the same level in October and September. The stagnation of the core CPI adds to Fed concerns amid rising overall inflation.

Thursday
Thursday is another critical day for EUR/USD, with the ECB's final meeting of the year taking center stage during the European session. The base-case scenario suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the ECB will release its quarterly projections on rates and macroeconomic indicators. After the latest data on the growth of the European economy and inflation in the eurozone, the 50-point scenario is not even hypothetically considered. Therefore, reducing the rate by 25 points will not substantially impact the euro and, consequently, on EUR/USD. Traders are interested in further prospects for easing the monetary policy. Therefore, the market's main attention will be focused on the main points of the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of Christine Lagarde.

Recent Eurozone data shows that Q3 GDP growth reached 0.4% QoQ (forecast: 0.2%), the strongest growth rate since the beginning of the year before last. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.9% (forecast: 0.8%), the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023.

As for inflation, Headline CPI rose to 2.0% (forecast: 1.9%), and the core remained at the previous month's level, 2.7%, with a forecast of a decrease of 2.6%. Inflation of service prices (one of the report's most important components, which is closely monitored by the ECB) remained at a high level—3.9%.

These figures suggest that the ECB will continue easing monetary policy moderately. During the post-meeting statement, Lagarde is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. Forecasts suggest that the headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 2.5% YoY, while the core PPI is expected to rise to 3.2% YoY. A stronger PPI print could support the USD, especially if CPI also meets or exceeds forecasts (not to mention the "green zone").

Friday
Eurozone industrial production data will be published on Friday. In monthly terms, the indicator should show positive dynamics, but it will remain in the negative area (-0.1% in October against -2.0% in September). In annual terms, the indicator should fall to -3.0% after falling to -2.8%.

The Import Prices Index will be released in the US session. Though secondary, it provides additional context for inflation trends. Forecasts indicate a rise to 1.0% YoY in November (up from 0.8% in October and -0.1% in September).

Conclusions
The spotlight will be on US inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and the ECB meeting. Accelerating US inflation would boost USD demand since, in this case, traders will "remember everything": Mary Daly's hawkish statements, strong Nonfarms, and pro-inflationary policies under the incoming Trump administration.

Meanwhile, the ECB's dovish tone amid rising Eurozone inflation could weigh on the euro.

Short positions on EUR/USD become relevant if the pair breaks below the 1.0530 support level (the middle Bollinger Band and Tenkan-sen line on D1). The first target is 1.0470 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the lower border of the Kumo cloud on H4), and the second target is 1.0420 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands on D1).
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The main events by the morning: December 18

Gazprom's shares have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009. Gazprom's securities continued to fall for the fourth day in a row, reaching 107 rubles per share. This is a record low for the last 14 years. The main reason was the EU's rejection of interest in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and the transition to alternative energy sources, which caused a negative reaction from European gas companies.

Elon Musk is under the gun of the US authorities. SpaceX and its founder Elon Musk have been under scrutiny by the American authorities. According to The New York Times, Musk is suspected of possible violations related to the secrecy of state secrets.

Silver will be the main asset of 2025. Experts at Heraeus Precious Metals predict an increase in the value of silver on the global market in the range of $28 to $40 per troy ounce in 2025. Silver is expected to rise in price faster than gold, which makes it a promising investment asset.

The cost of bitcoin has updated another historical high, exceeding $ 108 thousand. Crypto investors continue to buy, expecting that the newly elected US President Donald Trump will create more favorable conditions for the crypto industry and include bitcoin in the US strategic reserve.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ignores the investigation. He did not appear for questioning at the Office of Anti-Corruption Investigations in the case of the rebellion. Yeltsin's powers were suspended as a result of impeachment in parliament.
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The main events by the morning: December 20

There is a new crisis in the United States: the government is on the verge of a shutdown due to the failure of the funding bill. Republicans proposed a document that was supported by only 174 members of the House of Representatives, while 235 opposed it. If the bill had been approved, the federal government would have received funds to work until March 2025, and the debt ceiling would have been suspended until January 2027.

The International Monetary Fund believes that the Russian economy is growing due to the rapid growth of wages. The Director of Communications of the foundation noted that the growth of the Russian economy is due to strong private consumption, supported by a tough labor market and rapid wage growth. Corporate investments also play an important role.

Sanctions against Russia have led to an increase in business tourism. Already, almost 20% of business trips are to foreign destinations, the leaders among which are China and the UAE. Next year, the number of business trips may increase by another 15-20%. This is due to the desire of businesses to explore new areas for doing business within the Russian Federation or in friendly countries.

Donald Trump has threatened the EU countries that they must fill the trade deficit with the United States through purchases of oil and gas. Otherwise, the United States will impose widespread tariffs.

Bitcoin fell below $95,000 after the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to put the key rate cut on pause. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast for next year. Experts believe that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, may become a new villain for the crypto industry, replacing the head of the SEC, Gensler.

Thailand is considering the possibility of legalizing bitcoin as a means of payment. The country's finance minister proposed starting an experiment in tourist regions such as Phuket and Hua Hin, where it would be possible to allow the use of cryptocurrency in restaurants, cafes and shops. This will simplify the lives of tourists who will be able to pay with digital assets without having to look for currency exchange offices.
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Dollar Extinguishes All Candles

The brief rally for the EUR/USD currency pair didn't last long. A slowdown in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve—to 0.1% month-over-month in November, along with statements from FOMC officials indicating that monetary easing would continue into 2025, seemed to trigger a corrective response for the main currency pair. However, comments from Donald Trump on social media and emerging vulnerabilities in the euro brought the situation back to square one.

The president-elect of the United States does not intend to spare anyone. He initially focused on Mexico, Canada, and China. Then, he turned his attention to BRICS countries. However, he didn't stop there; he announced that if the European Union did not increase its purchases of oil and gas from the U.S., he would impose tariffs on European imports. This decision put additional pressure on the euro, as such tariffs could further slow down an already fragile European economy.

Recent forecasts from Bloomberg experts indicate that the eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, a decrease from the previously anticipated 1.2%. In 2026, growth is projected to be 1.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.4%. These revised estimates are below the European Central Bank's projections, which further emphasize the vulnerability of the euro area.

Eurozone Economic Trends and Forecasts

Germany, once considered the growth engine of Europe, is now causing further economic decline. Analysts forecast that its economy will expand by only 0.4% next year, followed by a 1% growth the year after that.

In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. The Atlanta Fed's leading indicator suggests a GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Futures markets show a 91% probability that the Fed will pause its monetary easing cycle in January. Meanwhile, the ECB intends to continue reducing interest rates. Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is approaching the point where it can assert that inflation has been brought down to the target level of 2%. If this is the case, there would be little reason to maintain high borrowing costs. The increasing interest rate differential favoring the U.S. could lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly adopting net long positions on the dollar, reaching their highest levels since May. According to HSBC, the dollar is "hitting all the right notes" and shows no signs of weakening in 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo suggests that Trump's political agenda, including tariffs, will further boost the USD index rally.

Speculative Positions in the U.S. Dollar

It is highly likely that the U.S. dollar will break tradition and end December in a positive position. This month is typically considered seasonally weak for the American currency, which usually declines at year-end. However, every rule has its exceptions.

In the daily chart, another attempt by EUR/USD bulls to launch a counterattack has ended in failure, further demonstrating their weakness. The recent retracement offers an opportunity to open or expand previously established short positions, targeting levels of 1.012 and 1.000. Sticking to the current strategy of selling on pullbacks remains the most logical course of action.
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Will the Bank of Japan Intervene?

Recent media reports have raised concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan due to a significant weakening of the national currency, which has declined by approximately 13% since October. Many banks and investment firms view this as a likely scenario ahead of the Japanese central bank's meeting in January. Let's analyze this situation using technical analysis to find an answer.

On the daily chart, we apply three Fibonacci time zones:

The first zone from the July peak (brown color).
The second zone from the September low (blue color).
The third zone from the December 3rd low (green color).
We identified a point where three timelines from different zones converge around January 12–13: the 11th line of the brown grid, the 10th line of the blue grid, and the 8th line of the green grid. However, since the chart does not account for future weekends—including the New Year holiday—the adjusted date is closer to January 21–22, coinciding with the BOJ meeting scheduled for January 23–24. It seems that following this meeting, a long-term strengthening of the yen may begin, potentially breaking below the December low and dipping beneath the lower boundary of the ascending pink price channel. In this context, the prospect of intervention becomes less significant, as the USD/JPY pair could decline due to an interest rate hike.

There is still a month until the central bank meeting. During this time, a local decline in the currency pair is possible, potentially approaching either the red line of the descending channel or the pink line of the ascending channel. A short-term rise to the 158.70 level may follow, which could ultimately form a triangular (flag-like) pattern. Alternatively, a different chart pattern might emerge if the price fails to break above the upper boundary of the descending price channel (a descending flag).
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The main events by the morning: January 8

Trump has published a map of the United States with Canada, causing a political outcry. The ex-president continues to provoke the Canadian authorities and the opposition by announcing his plans for the country's accession to the United States. Not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is strongly opposed, but also the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Pouillevre, who promised to prevent the implementation of such initiatives if he won the election.

The Russian stock market expects to recover in 2025. Analysts predict an increase in the Moscow Exchange index to 3300-3700 points if geopolitical risks decrease, the key interest rate decreases and high dividends remain. After a weak 2024, investors are counting on improved financial performance.

The yuan fell to a minimum amid fears of Trump's sanctions. The yuan exchange rate reached 7.35 per dollar, the highest since September 2023. Markets are afraid of new duties that could force the People's Bank of China to weaken the national currency. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan also fell to 13.59 rubles (minus 3 kopecks per day).

The Contact Group for Ukraine will approve the plan until 2027. At a meeting in Ramstein on January 9, NATO will coordinate Ukraine's long-term military needs, allocating responsibility for supplies in eight key areas, including air defense, armored vehicles and drones. The United States is likely to announce the final aid package under Joe Biden's presidency.
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Nikkei and U.S. Futures Sink Quietly: Where to Look for Resilience

Investors Await U.S. Employment Report
World stock markets continued to show weakness on Friday as investors waited with bated breath for U.S. employment data, which could either deepen the bond market sell-off or ease the tension a bit. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady near a two-year high.

U.S. Exchanges in the Red
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, reflecting tensions among market participants. Wall Street remained closed yesterday for the funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, European STOXX 50 futures and the UK FTSE were steady, showing no significant changes.

Key Moment of the Day: Employment Data
All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1:30 p.m. GMT). Analysts expect the number of jobs to increase by 160,000 in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

However, the market is waiting not only for the numbers, but also for their impact on the economy. A stronger result could send 10-year Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels in 13 months. This, in turn, would strengthen the dollar.

Possible scenarios
According to ING, a result below 150,000 new jobs is needed to avoid further rise in Treasury yields. Any deviation from forecasts could set the markets on a new course, adding to turbulence.

Investors around the world are holding their breath, as today's outcome could set the mood for the coming weeks.

Employment report could be a turning point
Friday's key event, the publication of the US employment report, is causing a lot of speculation among investors and analysts. It is this data that could determine the future trajectory of the bond and currency markets, but experts note that the impact will only be noticeable in the event of a significant deviation from forecasts.

Experts warn: a surprise is needed
"The employment report, as always, plays a decisive role. But for it to have a noticeable impact, the results need to be significantly different from expectations," said Padraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING.

The current situation suggests that markets have already priced in some of the potential outcome. "If the numbers are close to what we expected, there is a chance we could see some reaction to lower yields, which could introduce an element of vulnerability," Garvey added.

Fed in no rush to change rates
While investors ponder the impact of the new data, officials at the US Federal Reserve are showing caution. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes rate cuts are inevitable in the future, but stressed there is no need to act hastily. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, on the other hand, took a harder line, arguing against any immediate rate move.

These statements reflect polarized views within the Fed, but markets have already adjusted their expectations. Traders are now forecasting a 43 basis point rate cut in 2025. However, adding to the nervousness are concerns that possible policies of President Donald Trump, including inflation programs, could spur a rise in long-term yields.

Bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
The current situation in the bond market shows a steady rise in yields. The benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose by 1.5 basis points, reaching 4.6957%. Although this is slightly below the peak of 4.73% recorded earlier in the week, analysts are closely watching the critical level of 4.739%. If it is broken, the path to the 5% mark could open for the first time since 2007.

At the same time, the dollar is strengthening. The dollar index continues to rise for the sixth week in a row, reaching the level of 109.30. This is due to the rise in Treasury yields, which amounted to 9 basis points this week.

On the verge of change?
The current situation in the market reflects tense anticipation. Investors and analysts are bracing for the employment report to provide new momentum that will either reinforce current trends or force markets to adjust their expectations. Either way, Friday's numbers will be an important guide to future economic and investment decisions.

Pressure on the pound, rising commodity prices
Amid concerns about the health of the British economy, the pound continues to weaken, with UK government bond yields reaching multi-year highs. At the same time, commodity markets are showing gains, with oil and gold prices rising despite a general decline in Asian stock indices.

The British pound under pressure
The pound remains under pressure, having fallen 0.2% on Friday to $1.2278, its lowest since November 2023. The currency has lost 1.1% of its value over the week. Meanwhile, UK government bond yields, which reached a 16.5-year high, have retreated somewhat, but remain a concern.

Oil and gold markets in positive territory
Oil prices ended the week with positive dynamics. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $74.32 per barrel, giving it a weekly gain of 0.5%.

Gold prices were no less impressive: the metal rose 1.3% over the week, reaching $2,674.44 per ounce, which is close to its highest levels since December. These movements indicate growing investor interest in safe assets amid general uncertainty.

Asian markets fall
Asian stock markets ended the week on a minor note. Japan's Nikkei index lost 0.9% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.6%. The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares fell 0.5%, and its weekly loss amounted to 1.2%.

Chinese stock markets are also showing weakness, with the blue-chip CSI300 index falling 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.5%. The declines are linked to rising Chinese government bond yields after the country's central bank said it would temporarily suspend Treasury purchases due to a shortage.

Global sentiment remains tense
The overall picture in the markets is that investors are in a holding pattern. Amid weakness in stock markets and tensions over macroeconomic data, attention is focused on the upcoming US employment data. The report could set a new direction for bonds, currencies and commodities.

Global markets under pressure as investors await US employment report
Global stock and bond markets continue to show volatility amid expectations for key US employment data. US stock index futures are falling while bond yields are reaching new highs.

US markets pause, futures lose ground
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the US trading session was suspended for the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, Europe is expected to open flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Bond Market: Yields at multi-year highs
Tensions are rising in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note approached 4.739%, above which further gains could be triggered. The yield on the 30-year note rose 11 basis points in a week, reaching its highest in a year.

In the UK, the government debt situation is also causing concern, with bond yields soaring to their highest since 2008 amid doubts about the sustainability of the country's fiscal policy. Despite some relief, the market remains at risk.

Chinese Yuan Under Pressure, Bond Yields Rise
China's central bank has temporarily suspended purchases of Treasury bonds, citing a shortage. However, analysts believe the move is aimed at supporting the national currency, the yuan, which is facing pressure. As a result, Chinese bond yields also rose.

Employment Report: Key Indicator of the Week
All eyes are on the upcoming US employment report. Forecasts suggest a 160,000 job gain in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, the range of expectations is quite wide, from 120,000 to 200,000, which leaves room for surprises.

Adding to the uncertainty is the annual revision of household survey data, which could adjust unemployment statistics for recent months. This increases the likelihood that the report will have a stronger impact on the markets.

Global Markets Hold Their Breath
Markets are in a holding pattern as the jobs report could provide fresh impetus for U.S. bonds, the dollar and global stock indexes. Ahead of the data, investors and analysts are bracing for the possibility that a surprise result could be a catalyst for significant change.

Key Report Could Be a Game Changer
The upcoming US employment data could be a game changer for global markets. Strong numbers could accelerate the rise in US bond yields and strengthen the dollar, while weak numbers could raise new questions about the health of the global economy.

Breakthrough to 5%: Bond yields on the threshold of historic highs
If the report beats expectations, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could exceed the important level of 4.739%, opening the way to a psychologically significant 5%. This figure has not been seen since 2007 and would be a powerful signal for bears, strengthening their position in the market.

Rising yields will put additional pressure on emerging markets, where the dollar is already playing a destructive role. The US currency, which is at a two-year high, continues to deepen financial problems in economies dependent on external debt.

High rates are a threat to stocks
The stock market could also react negatively. Higher bond yields and rising discount rates are calling into question lofty valuations, potentially triggering a sell-off. Investors facing rising risks can no longer count on stable stock growth without taking into account new macroeconomic realities.

Hope for balance: "Goldilocks" for the US economy
The ideal scenario for markets now is a moderately soft report. On the one hand, it should prevent further growth in bond yields and the dollar, on the other, it should not be so weak as to undermine faith in the resilience of the US economy.

However, the likelihood of a significant change in the Federal Reserve's course towards lower rates remains extremely low. The focus of the Fed and investors has shifted to the possible consequences of Donald Trump's economic policy in the coming months, where inflation risks may outweigh the need for easing.

The pound falls, the dollar strengthens
In the currency market, the dollar continues to show growth for the sixth week in a row. The British pound was the biggest loser, down 1% on the week to $1.2303, its lowest in more than a year. The pound's weakness reflects ongoing concerns about the UK's economic outlook and the impact of fiscal policy on its markets.

Markets are waiting. The results of the report will determine the next move for bonds, stocks and currencies. A successful balance between strong and weak data could reassure investors, while a significant swing in either direction risks triggering volatility.