Oil storm and political intrigue: What's happening to US markets?

Markets react to presidential debate: stocks fall, dollar holds
US stock futures fell, the dollar held its ground and bond prices jumped after a tense US presidential debate in which Vice President Kamala Harris put Republican nominee Donald Trump on the defensive.

Fiery debate puts investors on edge
The presidential contenders focused on hot-button issues such as abortion, the economy, immigration and Trump's legal woes in the first debate. That has raised concerns among investors, especially ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data that could shape Federal Reserve policy next week.

Bond yields fall on rate cut expectations
Bond yields, which move in the opposite direction to their prices, fell after Harris's strong speech, fueling expectations for interest rate cuts while investors also anticipate higher spending if Trump wins. Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 3.6068%, their lowest since June 2023. Meanwhile, 10-year German bond yields, the euro zone's benchmark, fell 2.5 basis points to 2.12%, a new one-month low.

Political battle intensifies after Biden exit
Harris's late entry into the presidential race following Joe Biden's resignation in July has intensified the political battle. Her confident debate only added to market jitters that have become more pronounced in anticipation of Trump's possible return to the White House.

Investors weigh the implications of a potential victory
S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% as the market speculates that a Harris presidency is unlikely to bring major spending or tax cuts.

Asian shares fall, Europe stays afloat
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan fell 0.3%, reflecting broader trends in Asian markets.

European markets gain on US hurricane
European stock markets were more upbeat, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index up 0.4%. The gains were helped by gains in oil and gas stocks, driven by concerns that Hurricane Francine could impact US oil production.

Rates Tilt to Harris, But Fiscal Policy Remains Cloudy
The presidential debates provided little clarity on fiscal policy, but financial markets showed a bias in favor of Kamala Harris. Pop star Taylor Swift has thrown her weight behind her campaign, saying she will back Harris in the Nov. 5 election.

Dollar Weakens, Yen Strengthens
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six other major currencies, was down 0.256 percent at 101.38. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose more than 1 percent to 140.71 per dollar, its highest since late December. The gains came after Bank of Japan Governor Junko Nakagawa reiterated that the bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation meet its forecasts.

US Crypto Assets Slip
US crypto and blockchain stocks fell in premarket trading after Bitcoin dropped 2%. This comes amid previous statements by Donald Trump, who positioned himself as a supporter of cryptocurrencies at the Bitcoin 2024 convention in Nashville in July.

Awaiting inflation data: investors focus on reports
Investors are closely watching the upcoming publication of the US Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled for Wednesday. The report is expected to provide further clues about the possible course of monetary policy, although the Federal Reserve has already emphasized that employment is taking precedence over inflation.

Inflation forecasts remain stable
According to the data from an analyst survey, the core consumer price index is expected to increase 0.2% in August from the previous month, in line with previous readings. This stability in the outlook leaves the question of the future of interest rates open, especially given that the latest employment report released on Friday did not provide a clear direction for the Fed's actions.

Fed rates in question: What to expect next week?
While most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates next week, the size of the cut is still up for debate. After the mixed jobs report, it's clear the central bank needs more evidence of a slowdown or recession, particularly in the labor market.

"For the Fed to take more decisive action, we need more evidence of a slowdown in the economy, particularly in employment. I don't think the latest payrolls report provided that evidence," said ING's Carnell.

Market Price in Rate Cut Probability
Investors are currently pricing a 65% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points, with a 35% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut when the central bank makes its decision on September 18, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Oil prices recover amid hurricane concerns
In commodity markets, oil prices began to recover from a significant drop in the previous session. Amid a decrease in US crude inventories and the threat of Hurricane Francine, which could disrupt production in the country, quotes rose by 2%. These factors partially offset concerns about a decrease in global demand.

Oil futures rise: Brent and WTI gain momentum
Brent crude rose by 2% to reach $70.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by 2.25% to reach $67.21 per barrel. These figures reflect a mixed reaction of markets to the current uncertainty around production and demand.

Cryptocurrency stocks under pressure: Growing chances of Harris alarm the market
Shares of US companies related to cryptocurrencies are falling in premarket trading on Wednesday. This comes after Democratic nominee Kamala Harris successfully attacked her opponent Donald Trump in a heated debate, putting him on the defensive.

Trump as a cryptocurrency supporter: the industry is waiting
Trump, who has previously positioned himself as a Bitcoin supporter, has promised to support the cryptocurrency sector. His possible return to the White House could mean favorable changes for the industry, which has been critical of the current administration for excessive regulatory measures. However, after the debate, the crypto market is showing warning signs: Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, fell 1.6% on Wednesday, while Ethereum lost 2%.

Analysts assess the impact of the debate on the crypto market
"Despite the fact that the debate was not directly about cryptocurrencies, market sentiment is changing in favor of Kamala Harris," comments Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN.

"This is a bit of a chilling outlook for Bitcoin, in contrast to the more optimistic forecasts Trump made at the Bitcoin 2024 conference," Fournier adds, pointing to a shift in sentiment that could impact the future of cryptocurrencies.

Harris's odds are rising: Markets are taking bets
Kamala Harris's odds of winning the election have increased from 53% to 56% after the presidential debate, while Donald Trump's chances of winning have fallen from 52% to 48%, according to online betting site PredictIt.

Trump and the Crypto Industry: Promises and Hopes
Back in July, Donald Trump was actively seeking support from the crypto industry, speaking at a conference with promises of more favorable regulations. During his speech, he urged: "Never sell your Bitcoin," hoping to attract votes and donations from the crypto community.

Markets Watch Bitcoin: A Preference Indicator
Ahead of the debate, many analysts and traders looked to Bitcoin as an indicator that could tell which candidate is leading the race. The cryptocurrency market, known for its high volatility, is often seen as a risky asset. It attracts the attention of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accuses market participants of violating securities laws.

Cryptocurrencies Are Growing in Popularity Despite Risks
Despite the risks and regulatory pressure, interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow thanks to support from Wall Street and large corporations such as Elon Musk's Tesla, as well as the growing popularity of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds.

Crypto Stocks Fall: React to Debate
Crypto stocks were under pressure ahead of the opening bell. Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Hut 8 lost between 2.5% and 3.4%. Software developer and major Bitcoin buyer MicroStrategy fell 4%, while cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global fell 2.5% and blockchain farm operator Bitfarms fell 3%.

These crypto market swings highlight the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election and its possible impact on future regulation of the industry.

US Inflation Takes a Backseat as Political Battles Rumble
Amid the heated US presidential debate, upcoming inflation data has taken a backseat for now, but the lull could be temporary.

Last Stand Before Big Fed Decision
Wednesday's August consumer price report will be the last major economic data before the Federal Reserve's expected decision on September 18. With markets pricing in a roughly 35% chance of a sharp 50 basis point rate cut, and a 25 basis point cut already fully priced in, the upcoming data could significantly change traders' bets and positioning.

Economists See Inflation Stable
Economists surveyed expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month, with annual inflation falling to 2.6% in August from 2.9% in July. That outlook could impact the Fed's policy decisions.

Markets react to shifting balance of power
U.S. Treasury yields fell, while the dollar and Bitcoin, as well as U.S. stock futures, also fell. The market reaction is interpreted as a sign that the debate has given Harris a slight advantage ahead of the November 5 presidential election.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 3.605%, the lowest since June 2023, while the dollar was at 141.68 yen.

Trump's budget forecasts and plans
Amid the election race, budget analysts expect Trump's policies to be aimed at creating new federal debt, which may become one of the key points of his agenda.

Treasury interest: markets await auction
The auction of 10-year Treasury notes scheduled for Wednesday will be an indicator of investor sentiment and their interest in U.S. government securities. The auction will help gauge how markets are assessing the current state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates.

Bank Stocks Under Pressure: Regulators Step Up Scrutiny
Bank stocks remain in focus after a sharp decline. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chairman unveiled a plan to increase capital requirements for the largest banks by 9%. The proposal was less stringent than the initial version, which met with considerable resistance from Wall Street, but still disappointed bank investors and some critics.

Mixed Signals from Wall Street: Earnings at Risk
Adding pressure on the banking sector were comments from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan Chase cut its interest income forecasts, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said trading income could fall 10% in the current quarter.

UniCredit Targets Commerzbank: New Deal on the Horizon?
Meanwhile, in Europe, attention was drawn to Italian bank UniCredit, which announced Wednesday that it would acquire a 9% stake in Germany's Commerzbank. UniCredit is also seeking approval to potentially increase its stake in the bank, part of CEO Andrea Orcel's strategy to acquire a major German lender. The move is fueling speculation that UniCredit is preparing to make a move in the German market.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

EUR spreading its wings

By the end of this week, the euro has regained confidence and managed to recoup some of its earlier losses. While the euro has once again found bullish momentum and showed an uptrend, it has not managed to dethrone the US dollar.

Nevertheless, the euro has recouped earlier losses and is aiming for new heights. The euro's rise was aided by the ECB's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in response to declining inflation in the eurozone and growing concerns about a possible economic slowdown in the reurozone. On Thursday, September 12, the ECB cut the key interest rate by 60 basis points, down to 3.65%. Analysts noted that this is the second rate cut in the past three months, following the first reduction by 25 basis points in June, the first since 2019. The deposit rate was also lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the marginal lending rate was slashed by 60 basis points to 3.9%.

Thursday's decision to reduce the ECB's base deposit rate came amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering borrowing costs next week. Time will tell how accurate these expectations are. The ECB's rate cuts have been closely linked to inflation in the eurozone, which slowed to a three-year low of 2.2% in August. In July, this figure stood at 2.6%. A drop in industrial output in Germany and Italy has raised concerns about a potential slowdown in the eurozone economy after a brief period of growth recorded in early 2024.

Domestic inflation in eurozone countries remains high as wages continue to rise at an accelerated pace. However, pressure on labor costs is easing, and profits are partially offsetting the impact of higher wages on inflation, according to the ECB. The central bank's latest report included both hawkish and dovish remarks. On one hand, the ECB stated that financing conditions remain restrictive and economic activity is low. On the other hand, changes were noted, as policymakers revised their inflation forecasts upward. Many experts defined this approach as hawkish.

Current macroeconomic data on inflation in the EU aligns with expectations and confirms previous ECB forecasts. It is expected that average inflation in the eurozone will be 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The ECB's Governing Council is committed to ensuring inflation returns to the target of 2% in a timely manner. To achieve this, the ECB plans to keep rates "sufficiently restrictive" for as long as needed.

Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair exhibited mixed dynamics, sometimes stalling and then slightly retreating. Following the ECB's rate decision, the pair's momentum shifted upward. As a result, the euro made notable gains, slightly pushing back the dollar. On Friday, September 13, the EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.1082, having regained a significant portion of its losses and aiming for new peaks. The single currency has since strived to maintain the stability it gained after the ECB's decision.

In its updated quarterly forecasts, the ECB expects the region's economy to grow by 0.8% in 2024, slightly below the June estimate of 0.9%, experts highlight. Furthermore, the ECB also revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 1.3% from 1.4%. The reason, according to ECB representatives, is "weaker domestic demand in the coming quarters." The central bank also maintained its inflation forecast for this year at 2.5%, and for next year at 2.2%.

According to Christine Lagarde, the ECB president, there is a "mixed picture on inflation" in the eurozone, which continues to be driven by rising wages, despite easing pressure on labor costs. "Importantly, the ECB's track record for predicting inflation growth is limited. Therefore, the regulator wants to be certain about the accuracy of its decisions before proceeding with more aggressive rate cuts," analysts at ING assert.

Currently, the recovery of the European economy faces unfavorable factors. In this context, easing monetary policy restrictions should support the economy, Lagarde believes. According to the ECB president, the key upward risks for inflation are wages, profits, and trade tensions. September inflation data will likely be low, but inflation could rise again in the fourth quarter of 2024, the ECB forecasts.

In the current situation, currency strategists at Morgan Stanley expect quarterly deposit rate cuts of 25 basis points through the end of 2025. If this scenario plays out, the rate will drop to 2.25% by the end of next year, experts note. This scenario could weaken the euro and strengthen the dollar, Morgan Stanley adds. Continued pressure on the EUR/USD pair could threaten the euro's dynamics, potentially bringing it to parity with the dollar.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Intel heads higher as federal grants give stocks a boost

Investors weigh Fed moves, market reacts unevenly
US stocks were mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 posting small gains while the Nasdaq slipped significantly as Big Tech stocks slid. Investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where they are expected to decide on an interest rate hike.

Tech is on the retreat
The tech sector, which has been the leader in the S&P 500 all year, suffered the biggest losses. The S&P tech index lost 0.95%, the biggest decline among all 11 major sectors on the day.

A major contributor to the decline was Apple, whose shares fell 2.78%. This led to significant weakness in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The reason for this decline was the forecasts of analysts at TF International Securities, who reported weaker-than-expected demand for the new iPhone 16 lineup.

Chipmakers under pressure
Apple was not the only one feeling the negative market sentiment. Chipmakers also suffered. Nvidia, whose shares showed the best result in the S&P 500 for the year, lost 1.95%. Broadcom fell 2.19%, while Micron Technology fell 4.43%. This led to a 1.41% decline in the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index.

Investor Strategies: Quick Sells in Giant Stocks
Ken Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, noted that tech giants are often the first choice for sale when investors need to raise capital quickly. "If people want to raise money quickly, they sell big companies like Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, or Microsoft. You can do it quickly and with minimal risk to your portfolio," Polcari explained.

Financials Frozen in Anticipation of Fed Decisions
Investors continue to watch the Federal Reserve's actions, expecting further monetary tightening to impact markets in the coming days.

Unstable Expectations Ahead of Fed Meeting
Markets are showing mixed results ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision. Investors are playing it safe, looking to protect their assets and prepare for possible changes in monetary policy.

"They want to have reserves to act in case of uncertainty related to the Fed's decision," experts comment.

Dow Jones rises and Nasdaq weakness
On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 228.30 points, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.55%, and reached 41,622.08. At this time, the S&P 500 also slightly increased by 0.13%, rising by 7.07 points to 5,633.09. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite suffered losses, falling by 91.85 points, or 0.52%, to 17,592.13.

Tech Sector Turns Down
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, only tech and consumer discretionary posted negative dynamics. Tech stocks continued to slide under pressure, partly due to volatility amid expectations of the Fed decision. At the same time, financial companies rose by 1.22%, and the energy sector rose by 1.2%, leading the day's performance.

Betting on Fed Easing
Markets have shown positive dynamics since the beginning of the year, thanks to expectations that the Fed will ease its monetary policy. At the same time, economic indicators suggest that the US economy may be able to avoid a recession, adding to optimism among market participants.

The Dow Jones ended the day at a record high, while the S&P 500 index remains within 1% of its all-time high reached in July of this year.

Fed Rate Cut Forecasts
The market remains on hold for the outcome of Wednesday's Fed meeting. Expectations for a possible rate cut continue to fluctuate. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut is now 59%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Intel Gets Government Support
Intel Corp shares soared 6.36% after a report said the company would receive $3.5 billion in federal support. The funds will be used to produce semiconductors for the U.S. Department of Defense. The news not only strengthened Intel's position in the market, but also became an important step in ensuring the country's national security through the development of the semiconductor industry.

Boeing Suspends Hiring Amid Strike
Meanwhile, Boeing shares fell 0.78%, which is due to the ongoing strike by the company's workers. The aircraft manufacturer said it will suspend hiring and consider temporary furloughs for current workers if the strike continues in the coming days. This creates additional difficulties for the company, which is already under pressure due to the difficult economic situation.

Investor confidence is growing
On the New York Stock Exchange, there is a significant advantage of stocks that showed growth over those that declined, with a ratio of 2.74 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the situation was also in favor of the "bulls", where advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by 1.17 times. These data highlight the overall optimism in the market, despite the negative impact of certain sectors.

New records amid expectations
The S&P 500 index recorded 88 new highs over the past 52 weeks and only one low, which indicates good investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite, in turn, showed 143 new highs and 83 new lows. These figures confirm that the markets continue to rise, despite the upcoming Fed decisions.

Trading activity is falling
Trading volume on U.S. stock markets amounted to 9.74 billion shares, which is slightly below the average of 10.75 billion shares over the past 20 trading days. The decline in activity can be explained by the expectation of the Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which may have a significant impact on the further movement of the market.

US indices under pressure from technology stocks
The technology sector continues to drag indices down, despite the overall growth in the market. At the same time, the US dollar reached its lowest level in more than a year in a pair with the Japanese yen, which is associated with increased expectations of easing monetary policy by the Fed at the upcoming meeting.

Expectations of interest rate cuts are growing
Investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates. Expectations have increased: the Fed may cut rates by half a point, which is more than previously expected. This step is aimed at supporting the economy and preventing a sharp slowdown, while it is important to keep inflation under control and stabilize the labor market.

Markets watch Fed rhetoric
Kathleen Brooks, director of research at XTB, said market participants are focused less on the size of the rate cut and more on the rationale behind the Fed's actions.

"If a 50 basis point cut is accompanied by a statement of intent to provide a soft landing, that will be viewed positively by the market. However, if confidence weakens and signs of panic emerge, a sell-off may be inevitable," she said.

Dollar weakens amid market expectations
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.33% at 100.69. The dollar-yen pair was also under pressure, with the greenback down 0.13% at 140.63 yen. These fluctuations are related to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy, which could lead to a further decline in yields on dollar assets.

Trump Media shares have lost their gains
News of a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, also attracted the attention of investors. On Sunday, shares of his company Trump Media & Technology initially rose in price, but by the end of the trading session on Monday they had fallen by more than 3%.

Restrictions on selling Trump Media shares will be lifted
The moratorium on selling Trump Media shares will be lifted over the next 10 days, which could add volatility to the market. However, Trump himself said on Friday that he does not plan to sell his shares, which could calm investors a little.

Hopes for easing monetary policy lift shares
In anticipation of a significant cut in the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve, shares continue to receive support, which is reflected in the growth of global indices. The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.20% to 828.55, confirming that optimism surrounding the Fed's actions has supported investor sentiment for months.

Bonds React to Market Expectations
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields hit their lowest in two years. Two-year yields, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, fell 1.7 basis points on Monday, continuing a downward trend seen throughout September.

Longer-term bonds also fell. Ten-year yields fell for a second straight day, falling 3.1 basis points to 3.618% from 3.649% on Friday.

Rates and Probabilities: Traders Brace for Fed Decision
Traders are increasingly optimistic that the Fed will decide on a half-point rate cut at its meeting on Wednesday. Futures data showed the likelihood of that scenario rose to 59%, up from 30% a week earlier. Those expectations have changed sharply after media reports suggested more aggressive easing could be in the works.

Japan, UK central banks in focus
Other key central bank meetings are also in focus this week. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are set to discuss their next steps. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 5.00% when it meets on Thursday. However, markets are still pricing in a further rate cut of 31%.

The Bank of Japan will announce its decisions on Friday. It is widely expected to keep rates on hold for now, but may hint at a possible tightening in October.

US data could have an impact
In addition to central bank moves, investors will be closely watching economic data from the US this week, including reports on retail sales and industrial production. These data could have a significant impact on the market, either strengthening or weakening expectations for the Fed's next steps.

Yen Strengthens as Bond Yields Fall
A decline in US Treasury yields supported the Japanese yen's strength against the dollar. The trend reflects investor caution as investors wait for the Fed to cut interest rates further. The euro also holds its own, remaining at $1.1200, thanks to expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank, which gives stability to the European currency.

Gold approaches record levels
Low borrowing rates have stimulated the growth of gold prices, which rose by 0.22%, reaching $2,582.39 per ounce. This level is approaching the historical maximum of $2,588.81, set earlier. The precious metal continues to attract investors as a safe asset amid uncertainty in global markets.

Oil prices on the rise after hurricane
Oil prices rose sharply amid the aftermath of Hurricane Francine, which led to a temporary halt of about 20% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Restoring production will take some time, which caused an increase in the cost of oil on world markets.

Brent crude futures added $1.14, reaching $72.75 per barrel. US crude also rose, rising $1.44 to $70.09 a barrel. These changes could impact further energy price dynamics in the coming days.

Overall, the decline in bond yields, the strengthening yen and the rise in oil prices are indicative of current global economic trends, which are shaped by natural disasters and expectations of rate cuts from key central banks.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Surprise Reversal: Fed Cuts Rates, Markets Fall, Indexes Lose Ground

Volatile Trading Ends Down
US stock indexes closed with minor losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the upper limit of expectations for the first rate change in four years. Investors were expecting the Fed's move, but their reactions to the decision were mixed.

Short-Term Market Fluctuations
The trading session was jittery. The S&P 500 had been moving up and down, showing little change, before the Fed's decision. After the rate cut was announced, the index rose 1%, but then weakened again and closed with losses. The Dow Jones index saw similar swings, reaching an intraday high, but then, like the S&P 500, ending the day lower.

The Fed is betting on inflation and the labor market
The Federal Reserve justified its decision by citing "high confidence" that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. The Fed's policy focus now is on maintaining the resilience of the labor market, which remains the focus of economists. The half-percentage-point rate cut was a key step in that direction.

"The Fed has signaled that they are serious about cutting rates by 50 basis points and will likely continue to do so through the end of the year," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. In his opinion, such a move indicates the Fed's intention to stabilize the unemployment rate at 4.4% and return inflation to target levels.

Market expectations: from 25 to 50 basis points
Over the past few days, markets have been unable to decide on the forecasts for the size of the rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point cut was estimated at 65% last week. However, by the time the Fed's decision was announced on Wednesday, the probability of a larger 50 basis point cut had already reached 57%.

Minor losses amid expectations of rate cuts
US stock indices ended trading in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 103.08 points, which amounted to 0.25%, ending the day at 41,503.10. The S&P 500 lost 16.32 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,618.26. The Nasdaq Composite also lost ground, losing 54.76 points, or 0.31%, to 17,573.30.

Markets Betting on More Rate Cuts
Investors in the market are already bracing for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its November meeting. In fact, analysts are predicting a 35% chance that the Fed could cut rates by as much as 50 basis points.

Markets Hunger for More
"What amazes me is that even when markets get what they think they want, their appetites continue to grow," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers in Connecticut. He points out that despite expectations, stocks are not showing significant growth after the news, which may be due to the fact that the good news is already partially priced in after the previous seven-day rally.

Historically high borrowing costs
Recall that the cost of borrowing in the US has reached record levels in the last two decades, starting in July 2023, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% to combat inflation. This was the latest increase in a series of Fed decisions aimed at slowing inflationary pressures.

Fed Chairman's statement: No urgency to act
After the latest rate cut, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there is no immediate need for urgent action. This statement indicates a more cautious approach to further changes in monetary policy, which signals a stabilization of the pace of rate cuts.

Small Caps Take the Lead
Small-cap stocks, traditional winners in a low-interest-rate environment, showed solid gains. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks such stocks, rose 2.44% on the day, though it ended the day with a modest gain of 0.04%. That performance allowed it to outperform the larger-cap indices.

Regional banks gain strength
Regional banks, which have been under pressure from high interest rates in recent times, have also shown a recovery. The KBW index, which tracks their activity, jumped 3.53% during trading and ended the session with a gain of 0.46%. This growth shows that banks are adapting to changing market conditions.

Records as the economy stabilizes
Stock markets have shown significant gains in 2023, with all three key indices reaching record highs. Lower inflation and signs of a cooling labor market have inspired confidence that the period of high interest rates may gradually end, supporting optimism among investors.

Intuitive Machines shares soar 38% after NASA contract
One of the market's top gainers was Intuitive Machines, which rose an impressive 38.3%. The jump came after the announcement of a $4.8 billion contract with NASA to provide navigation services for space missions, boosting investor interest.

Market Balance: Stocks Advancing Outperform
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outpaced decliners by a 1.14-to-1 ratio, while on the Nasdaq the ratio was 1.36-to-1, showing that positive sentiment remains despite volatility.

Record Performances for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The S&P 500 has posted 43 new highs over the past 52 weeks and no new lows. The Nasdaq Composite has been even more impressive, with 165 new highs and 69 new lows, underscoring investor confidence in the upside.

Trading volume exceeded average
Trading activity on US exchanges was also above average. The volume of transactions amounted to 11.63 billion shares, which is higher than the average of 10.82 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.

Unexpected rate cut
The US central bank went for a more significant cut in the overnight rate than expected, reducing it by 0.5%, as opposed to the traditional 0.25%. This decision is based on the regulator's confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the target level of 2%. The new rate, which determines how much banks pay each other for short-term loans, is now in the range of 4.75%-5.00%, which is in line with market expectations.

Stock market reaction: short-term growth
After the Federal Reserve's announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose by 1%, but then lost momentum and ended the day 0.29% lower, stopping at 5618.26. The move shows that despite investors' positive expectations, the market is not ready for a sharp rally.

Seven-day rally — the effect has been priced in
"While markets got what they wanted, stocks have yet to see a significant rally. After seven straight days of gains, a lot of the positive news has already been priced in," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers. His comment underscores the sentiment among market participants who may have expected more from the rate cuts.

Record rates amid slowing inflation
The overnight rate was at its highest since July 2023, when the Fed continued to fight inflation with rate hikes. That made borrowing costs the highest in two decades, putting pressure on both consumers and businesses.

Global markets also felt pressure
The MSCI World Equity Index hit a new high during the session but was unable to hold on, falling 0.29% to 826.29, reflecting the global reaction to the Fed's move and uncertainty about where markets are headed.

The dollar rose slightly after weakening
The dollar index, which tracks the value of the US currency against major global currencies such as the yen and euro, initially weakened on the news of the rate cut. However, it later strengthened slightly, rising 0.07% to 100.98, reflecting volatility in currency markets and investors' eagerness to adapt to the new monetary policy.

Investors await further developments
While the Federal Reserve's actions were in line with expectations for many market participants, the reaction to the rate cut was muted, indicating that investors are still weighing the longer-term implications and potential future moves by the regulator.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Dow surges ahead: How Nike is saving the market amid FedEx decline and Fed signals?

US stocks end the week on a neutral note
US stocks closed almost unchanged on Friday. Investors decided to take a break after the impressive growth of the previous trading day, when a sharp rise in quotes was caused by another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. However, the dynamics of Nike shares made a positive contribution, helping the Dow index approach new highs.

Moderate growth after August rally
After the indices showed the largest daily gain since mid-August the day before, the main market dynamics were restrained. Despite this, the week ended with a 1% or more increase in quotes for key indices.

The market expects further rate cuts
Investors' hopes for a further rate cut were reinforced by statements from Fed Chairman Christopher Waller. His comments increased expectations that the rate would be cut by 50 basis points at once at the November meeting. This happened against the backdrop of a fresh rate cut on Wednesday, also by 50 basis points.

Different opinions within the Fed
At the same time, Fed member Michelle Bowman noted that she would prefer a more cautious reduction, which caused disagreement in assessments of the regulator's further steps.

Experts advise caution
"The market is in the process of adjusting, as some participants expected a significant reduction, but many were skeptical," said Sid Vaidya, chief wealth strategist at TD Wealth. In his opinion, it is important to act with greater caution now, since economic growth is expected to slow, and high valuations of large companies may be overstated.

Minor Index Fluctuations Amid Rate Expectations
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a modest gain of 38.17 points (0.09%) to end at 42,063.36. At the same time, the S&P 500 was down slightly by 11.09 points (0.19%) to 5,702.55, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 65.66 points (0.36%) to end the trading session at 17,948.32.

Weekly Summary: All Major Indices Up
Despite a mixed finish to the week, the major indices posted solid gains. The S&P 500 added 1.36%, the Nasdaq rose 1.49%, and the Dow Jones ended the week with a gain of 1.62%.

Rate Cut Expectations: Investors on Guard
According to CME's FedWatch tool, market participants are confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its November meeting. The probability of a larger 50 basis point cut is estimated at almost 49%.

Utilities Lead the Gain
Utilities were the strong performers of the week, rising 2.69% to a new record high, led by Constellation Energy, which jumped 22.29% after it announced a partnership with Microsoft to revive the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania.

Intel Keeps the Dow Afloat
The Dow gained additional support as Intel shares rose 3.31%. The rise followed a Wall Street Journal report that Qualcomm might acquire Intel, which prompted a positive reaction from investors.

Fed Easing to Boost Growth
The Federal Reserve began its monetary easing cycle on Wednesday, boosting market confidence. The U.S. economy is expected to continue to grow steadily, with low unemployment and subdued inflation providing a favorable environment for investors.

FedEx Under Pressure After Guidance Revision
FedEx shares (FDX.N) plunged 15.23% after the company cut its full-year revenue forecast. That sent the Dow Jones Transport (.DJT) index sliding 3.53%, its steepest drop since late April 2023.

Nike Strengthens Its Position Amid Executive Changes
Nike (NKE.N) shares soared 6.84% after the company announced that Elliott Hill, its former chief executive, will be returning to replace John Donahoe as CEO. The move sparked investor optimism and helped boost the company's value.

'Triple Witch' Boosts Volume
Friday's session was marked by a so-called "triple witch," when options and futures linked to stock indexes and individual stocks expired simultaneously. This phenomenon is traditionally accompanied by a surge in market activity and was responsible for the heaviest trading volume in 2024.

Stocks in a Rate Cut Environment: An Uncertain Outlook
While historically lower interest rates have been good for stocks, the current situation is worrisome. S&P 500 valuations are well above their long-term averages, raising concerns among analysts about further gains.

Market Balance: Bears Prevail
On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered gainers by 1.66 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.87 to 1 in favor of the bears, indicating a generally negative mood among market participants.

New Highs and Lows
The S&P 500 recorded 32 new yearly highs and one low, while the Nasdaq posted 114 new peaks and 105 new lows in the latest trading session. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was nearly 20 billion shares, well above the 20-day average of 11.48 billion.

Conflicting Views at the Fed Stir Debate on Inflation
Days after the rate cut, two key U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed opposing views on the outlook for inflation, underscoring the extent of the debate within the regulator about the need for next steps. While Chairman Jerome Powell insisted the rate cut was made to support robust economic growth, it was not a response to weak employment data.

The market is expecting more rate cuts
Investors are already pricing in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. The probability of a larger 50 basis point rate cut is also high, at 48.9%, according to CME FedWatch data. Those expectations are heightened by growing talk of potential economic risks.

Unknown risks worry investors
Michael Matousek, chief trader at U.S. Global Investors, said the latest rate cut has raised concerns among market participants about hidden risks. "Investors are starting to think that they may not be seeing all the threats that are under the surface and are bracing for the unexpected," he said. He also added that the question remains whether the Fed will be able to achieve a "soft landing," or control inflation without triggering a recession, which is also a concern.

Nike Supports Dow Jones Growth
The main driver of the Dow's rise was a jump in Nike shares, which rose after news that Elliott Hill had returned to the company as CEO. The personnel decision had a positive impact on the stock's dynamics and supported the index amid overall market volatility.

Global Stocks Slip
The MSCI World Equity Index slipped 0.21% to 837.69 after hitting a record high on Thursday.

Utilities Lead the Gains
The utilities sector was the best performer in the market, with Constellation Energy shares soaring more than 20%. The main reason for the rise was the news of a partnership with Microsoft that involves reopening a mothballed part of a nuclear power plant to support artificial intelligence projects.

Bank of Japan remains cautious
The Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged after an eventful week. This decision coincided with market expectations, but the bank's governor Kazuo Ueda made it clear that a sharp rate hike is not expected in the near future. He also noted that economic uncertainty in the United States and high volatility in global markets could influence the regulator's future decisions.

Yen loses ground amid BOJ statements
After the BOJ meeting, the yen weakened against the US dollar, falling by 0.94% to 143.97 per dollar. The dollar, in turn, strengthened and reached a two-week high against the Japanese currency. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major world currencies, rose by 0.12%, stopping at 100.79.

European shares down on carmakers
European markets also suffered losses, with the STOXX index slipping from two-week highs. Carmakers led the decline after Mercedes-Benz announced a profit target revision, citing weaker demand in China.

China: Stable rates, cautious growth
In China, the central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged despite expectations of a cut. Against this backdrop, the key blue-chip index rose 0.2%, but remained near the seven-month low hit earlier this week.

Hopes for stimulus in China grow
A series of weak economic data in recent days has fueled optimism among investors expecting aggressive measures to support the world's second-largest economy. Economic stimulus could have a significant impact on global markets, which is especially important amid the current volatility.

Sterling Recovers from Weakness
The British pound weakened on Thursday after the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged. However, by Friday the pound had begun to strengthen, rising 0.23% to $1.3314. The currency was supported by positive data on UK retail sales for August, which beat analysts' forecasts.

Commodities Continue to Strengthen
Commodity markets maintained their upward momentum amid global economic changes. Gold hit a record high of $2,614 an ounce, indicating increased demand for safe haven assets amid uncertainty.

Oil Prices Show Weekly Gains
Despite a slight decline on Friday, oil futures ended the week with strong gains. Brent crude fell 0.52% to $74.49 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude fell 0.4% to $71.92 a barrel. However, both benchmarks are up more than 4% for the week, reflecting robust energy demand.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Highs on the Horizon: China Stimulus Gives Miners a Boost

Record Gains for S&P 500 and Dow as Mining Stocks Take the Lead
The S&P 500 and Dow both hit new record highs on Tuesday despite weak consumer confidence data. This time, mining stocks helped the market, jumping on the back of massive economic stimulus announced by China.

Report Disappoints, But Markets Remain Afloat
Initially, the indexes gave up some of their gains after the Conference Board released a report that showed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence for September. The decline was due to growing concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market.

China Boost
"The main reason for today's gains was the news of support for China's stock market, as well as promises of future interest rate cuts. These announcements led to a sharp jump in international equities," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Hill said Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed on U.S. markets, particularly in sectors that are exposed to the Chinese economy, such as mining and metals, which have seen strong gains.

Daily Roundup: Records Set as Cyclicals Rise
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 83.57 points (0.20%) to end the day at 42,208.22. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 14.36 points (0.25%) to 5,732.93, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose 100.25 points (0.56%) to 18,074.52.

Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, five ended the day in positive territory, with material stocks posting the biggest gains, up 1.35%.

Metals prices soar as China unveils biggest stimulus since pandemic
Metals prices jumped sharply after China, the world's second-largest economy, announced its biggest economic stimulus since the pandemic, seeking to lift the country out of a deflationary crisis.

Mining stocks on the rise
Amid China's support measures, copper and lithium mining stocks showed notable gains. Freeport-McMoRan shares rose 7.93%, Southern Copper added 7.22%, Albemarle increased 1.97%, and Arcadium Lithium rose 3.2%.

Chinese giants strengthen their positions on US exchanges
Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also showed strong growth. For example, Alibaba jumped 7.88%, PDD Holdings rose 11.79%, and Li Auto gained 11.37%, reflecting positive sentiment in the domestic market.

Tech sector saw mixed results
Tech giants were mixed, with Nvidia rising 3.9% and Microsoft losing 1.15%. However, overall, the tech sector rose 0.79%. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index rose 1.23%, led by gains in Qualcomm shares of 0.54% and Intel shares of 1.11%.

Fed urges caution as inflation rises
Fed Chair Michelle Bowman warned that inflation remains above the 2% target, calling for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

This week, investors are focused on unemployment and personal consumption spending data, which could influence the Fed's next moves.

Visa Slips Amid Court Case
Among the notable moves in the market, Visa shares fell 5.49% after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against the company for possible antitrust violations. The move put significant pressure on the financial sector, which ended the session down 0.92%.

Stocks Show Solid Gains
Despite the problems in the financial sector, the New York Stock Exchange saw most stocks finish the day higher. For every one that fell, there were nearly two that advanced, a ratio of 1.93 to 1. The NYSE posted 636 new highs and only 43 new lows.

The S&P 500 also showed positive dynamics, with 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 103 new highs but also 101 new lows, reflecting a mixed picture in the tech market.

Active Trading on US Exchanges
Total trading volume on US stock markets was 11.42 billion shares, slightly below the average of 11.60 billion over the past 20 sessions. This shows that interest in the market is stable amid global economic changes.

Global Markets and Copper Prices Rise on Chinese Stimulus
A widely followed global stock index hit an all-time high on Tuesday, while copper prices rose to their highest in 10 weeks, driven by economic support measures announced by China, the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese Yuan and Oil Strengthen on Stimulus
The Chinese yuan hit a 16-month high against the US dollar, in response to economic support measures taken by Beijing. Following this, oil prices also rose to a three-week high, reflecting positive expectations in the world's largest crude importer.

New steps from the People's Bank of China
The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more money into the economy. Particular attention will be paid to reducing the debt burden on households, in particular by reducing mortgage payments. Among the planned measures is a 50 basis point reduction in bank reserve requirements, which should stimulate further economic growth.

News from China boosts growth in US cyclical sectors
China's economic support measures have had a significant impact on US markets. "News signals from China are reflected in US sectors, particularly cyclical sectors such as metals and mining, which have performed impressively," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Fed under close scrutiny by investors
Investors continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's actions, trying to predict its next move after the recent monetary easing, when the key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points.

World indices continue to move up
The MSCI World Equity Index showed confident growth, adding 0.54% and reaching a record high of 844.56 points. The European STOXX 600 index also rose by 0.65%, supporting positive sentiment in global markets.

Oil and metals markets are showing strength
In commodity markets, oil prices continued to rise: US crude oil rose by $1.19, reaching $71.56 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by $1.27 to $75.17 per barrel. This growth was caused by positive economic news from China, the world's largest consumer of raw materials.

Copper also posted a strong gain on the London Metal Exchange, rising 2.7% to $9,802 a tonne. The session peaked at $9,825, the highest since mid-July. China's influence on the metals market was a key factor in the rally.

Gold and Yuan Strengthen
Gold continued to strengthen amid growing interest in safe haven assets, rising 1.15% to $2,658.69 an ounce. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan strengthened 0.65% against the US dollar to $7.017.

Dollar Weakens on Weak Consumer Confidence
The US dollar index extended its decline after data showed weak consumer confidence, raising expectations for further Fed easing.

Dollar Loses as Euro and Yen Gain
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against major global currencies such as the yen and euro, fell 0.57% to 100.35. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.59% to $1.1178. The Japanese yen also gained against the dollar, with the American currency weakening 0.31% to 143.15 yen.

Treasury yields fall as markets react to economic data
Treasury yields fell in choppy trading, as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve became more likely amid weak economic data and waning consumer confidence.

Rate Futures: New Cut Odds Rising
The odds that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting have increased to 62%, up from 54% the day before, according to LSEG. At the same time, a more modest 25 basis point cut has a 38% chance.

US 10-Year Treasury Yields Weaken
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 3.733% in afternoon trading after earlier hitting a three-week high of 3.81%. The trend reflects growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may take additional monetary easing measures in the near future.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

The main events by the morning: September 30

In 2025, the world's central banks will switch their focus from fighting inflation to stimulating economic growth. With the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, experts began to express concern about the prospects for economic development. Now central banks will look for new growth points, since the task of containing inflation has been completed. China has already started stimulating its economy last week.

Investors are actively showing interest in the IPO of Arenadata, having re-signed the application book 3-4 times along the upper limit. The company expects to re-sign 4-5 times. Arenadat strives to avoid a repeat of the situation with Diasoft and intends to make the placement more balanced. The auction will begin on October 1.

Russia plans to strengthen responsibility for illegal migration. Three draft laws are being developed: one of them assumes that illegal stay is considered an aggravating circumstance when committing offenses, the other introduces fines for forgery of migration documents in the amount of 5-10 million rubles, and the third provides for punishment for organizing illegal migration.

The United States has allocated $567 million in military assistance to Taiwan, including for the supply of weapons, training and training in the military sphere. In 2023, the United States provided $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan its territory and has repeatedly criticized the American authorities for its support.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

USD/JPY: Shigeru, Ueda, and ADP report

The yen is losing ground again. After nearly a 500-pip rally, the Japanese currency has been falling against re greenback again. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair hit a two-week low, dropping to 141.66, reacting to the unexpected results of the elections of the ruling political party's leadership. The Liberal Democratic Party is now headed by Shigeru Ishiba, who has taken over the government and announced plans to hold early parliamentary elections—one year ahead of schedule.

The yen responded positively to Ishiba's victory, as he is considered a proponent of tight monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation. Importantly, he defeated Sanae Takaichi, a candidate from the highly conservative wing of the LDP (who was considered the frontrunner in the race), who, in contrast, advocated for a softer monetary policy.

In response to Ishiba's victory, the USD/JPY pair dropped 500 pips, falling from 146.50 to the mid-141 range. However, as is often the case with political factors, their influence fades quickly—by the end of the week, the pair's buyers had recovered almost all lost points. The "Shigeru factor" was swiftly priced in by the market, which is quite logical, given that the election of a new prime minister, even one with "hawkish" views, doesn't mean the Bank of Japan will automatically accelerate rate hikes. Ishiba will play his part, of course, but not immediately and not in the public sphere. Don't expect any "Trump-style" statements from the new Japanese prime minister, like those made by the former US president who openly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, the classic fundamental factors suggest that the Bank of Japan will not rush into the next round of rate hikes. In particular, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index reflected a slowdown in inflation: the overall CPI dropped to 2.2% in September (after rising to 2.6% in August), while the core CPI fell to 2.0%. This index is considered a leading indicator for determining inflation trends nationwide, so its downward trend is a worrying sign for USD/JPY sellers. Other macroeconomic indicators also disappointed. Japan's industrial production volume dropped by more than 3% in August on a monthly basis (-3.3%) against a forecast of -0.5%. Additionally, the volume of new housing starts in Japan declined sharply in September by 5.1% (against a forecast drop of 3.3%).

Such fundamental conditions do not support the tightening of monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed this assumption in his recent speeches. He emphasized the need to maintain a wait-and-see strategy, "considering global economic risks and financial market instability." In his speech yesterday, he also reiterated a cautious stance. According to him, the regulator will pursue "appropriate monetary policy in order to sustainably and stably achieve the inflation target of 2%."

For the most part, the Bank of Japan's leader made general, conventional, and non-committal statements. But this is precisely what is weighing on the Japanese currency. Many of his policymakers (Naoki Tamura, Hajime Takata, and Junko Nagakawa) hinted in their September speeches that the central bank might raise interest rates again in the near future. They specifically pointed to wage indicators (which showed positive dynamics, rising by 1.1% year-on-year in June and 0.4% year-on-year in July).

However, Kazuo Ueda cooled the enthusiasm of USD/JPY sellers. He stated that the October data on service prices "will be key in determining whether inflation is accelerating." Only after a thorough analysis of this data, the regulator will shed light on whether any policy changes can be expected.

In other words, the head of the Bank of Japan cast doubt on another rate hike this year, though he did not rule out such a scenario. This indecisiveness from Ueda disappointed USD/JPY sellers. So, the yen ceased to act as a "driving force" in the USD/JPY pair.

All of this suggests that a resumption of a downward movement is only possible if the US dollar weakens. The instrument is following the dollar index, which in turn is awaiting the key report of the week—the US nonfarm payrolls to be published the day after tomorrow, on October 4. I remind you how traders reacted to the ADP report, which came out in the green today, reflecting the creation of 144,000 jobs in the private sector. On the one hand, this is a relatively modest result. On the other hand, most experts expected this figure to be around 124,000. This has sparked hope among dollar bulls that nonfarm payrolls will also be in the green. In that case, the likelihood of a 50-point rate cut at the November meeting will drop to 20-15%, and the dollar will receive additional (and quite significant!) support.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has approached the resistance level of 145.30 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). It would be advisable to enter long positions after buyers break above and consolidate above this level. In that case, the next medium-term target for the upward movement will be 147.00, which is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy, Oil Rising: How the U.S. Balances Labor Market Gains and Geopolitics

Dow Ends Week at Record High, Nasdaq Shows Solid Gains
The Dow hit record highs on Friday, while the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of more than 1%, driven by an unexpectedly strong increase in U.S. employment, which somewhat allayed investors' fears about possible economic weakness.

Record Job Growth
September was the month with the most significant job growth in the past six months. According to the published data, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Experts took this report as a signal that the economy remains resilient and does not lose momentum.

"The data confirms that we can expect stable economic activity in the fourth quarter," commented Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Impact on Interest Rates
The improving economic situation, however, may slow down the interest rate cuts that were previously expected. Cardillo noted that positive news from the labor market will most likely slow the process of further rate cuts.

Traders also adjusted their expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for November 6-7. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 8% from 31% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Small Caps, Financials Rise
Amid the broader market rally, small caps and financials stood out. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, while the S&P 500 Index rose 1.6%.

The trading session's results showed that despite the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future actions, investors remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Spirit Airlines Shares Plunge, Airlines Mixed
Spirit Airlines shares plunged 24.6% on news that the company may be in bankruptcy talks with bondholders. While Spirit plunges into crisis, other airlines are rallying. Thus, Frontier Group shares soared by 16.4%, United Airlines jumped by 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines rose by 3.8%.

Growth of leading indices
Friday's session ended with growth of the main American stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 341.16 points (0.81%), reaching 42,352.75. The broad market index S&P 500 also added 0.90% and closed at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated growth by 1.22%, ending the day at 18,137.85.

Weekly results amid geopolitical instability
Although the main indices showed growth on Friday, their results remained modest for the week. Strong investor concerns are associated with the tense situation in the Middle East. The Dow added just 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq also ended the week with a symbolic gain of 0.1%.

Energy on the rise
The energy sector showed notable gains thanks to a sharp jump in oil prices, which is also associated with political instability in the Middle East. The S&P energy index rose 1.1% on Friday and showed an impressive 7% gain for the week, which was the largest weekly gain since October 2022.

The dynamics in the markets highlight how geopolitical risks and corporate news can have diametrically opposed effects on different sectors of the economy.

Biden urges Israel to consider alternatives in the conflict
US President Joe Biden suggested that if he were in Israel's place, he would consider other measures besides attacks on Iranian oil facilities. He also said he believed Israel had not yet made a final decision on how to respond to Iran's missile strikes this week.

Rivian Shares Slide
Rivian shares fell 3.2% after reporting disappointing production data. The electric vehicle startup cut its full-year guidance and reported delivering fewer vehicles than planned in the third quarter.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Investors are eagerly awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 next week. Particular attention will be focused on major financial players like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, which will report on October 11.

Stock Market Optimism
Investor optimism remains as the S&P 500 has posted a 20.6% gain for the year. Many are hoping that quarterly results will meet high expectations, supporting the continued rally in stock markets.

US Port Backlogs Expected to Ease
Ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have reopened, but shipping backlogs may take time to clear as logistical challenges persist. Advancing Stocks Outnumber Declining Stocks

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.72 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher, at 2.20 to 1 in favor of advancing stocks.

Highs and Lows on the Stock Exchanges
The S&P 500 Index posted 33 new 52-week highs and just one new low. The Nasdaq Composite posted 98 new highs and 91 new lows.

Trading Volume on U.S. Exchanges Falls
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 10.91 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.03 billion. Despite this, global markets remained positive amid strong U.S. labor market data.

Global Markets and the Dollar's Rise
MSCI's global stock index rose, and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level since August. This came after an unexpectedly strong employment report eased investor fears of a possible economic slowdown.

Oil prices rise amid geopolitical risks
Oil prices ended the week with their biggest gain in a year, driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of a wider regional conflict. However, further gains were curbed after US President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from an immediate attack.

Strong US employment data
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, well above the 140,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and data for August were revised up, indicating a stable US labor market.

Reaction to Treasuries and Fed actions
Amid a stronger-than-expected employment report, US Treasury yields rose to their highest since August. This has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in November has risen to 97%, up from 68% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Economic data continues to have a significant impact on the market, causing forecast revisions and creating dynamic changes in investor strategy.

Market Reaction to Strong Employment Data
U.S. stocks responded positively to strong employment data despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish sentiment. This, according to Julia Hermann, a strategist at New York Life Investments, highlights the fact that investors are now focusing on economic growth, even if it comes with higher interest rates.

"The market has been able to adapt well to this shift, which suggests a constructive approach to the economic outlook," Hermann said, pointing to strong moves in Treasuries and stocks in recent days.

Economic relief: Ports reopen
The US economy also got some breathing room as ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast reopened. Dock workers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending one of the sector's largest strikes in 50 years. However, clearing up the backlog of supplies that has accumulated during the strike could take some time.

Global indices and rising oil prices
The MSCI World Index ended the day up 0.57%, reaching 847.12 points, although it had fallen 0.7% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index also showed gains, adding 0.44%.

Investors continue to closely monitor events in the Middle East. The question of Israel's response to the missile strikes launched by Iran is particularly acute. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran and its allies have no intention of backing down.

Oil Prices Rise
Oil prices continued to rise. US crude rose 0.9% to $74.38 a barrel, while North Sea Brent added 0.55% to end the day at $78.05 a barrel. This highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks weighing on energy markets.

The current situation in global markets shows that investors are balancing positive economic news with increasing tensions on the international stage.

The dollar strengthens amid strong employment data
The US dollar showed significant strength, reaching a seven-week high. This is due to the fact that fresh employment data forced traders to revise their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track to end the week with the largest gain since September 2022.

Dollar Index Movement
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major global currencies, rose 0.56% to 102.48. The euro, by contrast, weakened 0.5% to $1.0976, while the Japanese yen lost 1.25%, pushing the dollar higher to 148.77 yen.

Treasury yields rise
U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The benchmark 10-year note rose 12.5 basis points to 3.975%, while the 30-year yield rose 7.9 basis points to 4.259%. Yields on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, rose particularly sharply, adding 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold Slips
Gold prices slipped on the back of a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a major Fed rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.23% to $2,649.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell, falling 0.38% to $2,647.10 an ounce.

The economic outlook has put precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, under pressure as investors reassess their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

PepsiCo Leads Gains, Tech Boosts Nasdaq as Investors Brace for Inflation Surprises

Tech Returns: Wall Street Ends Day on a Positive Note
U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday, partially recouping losses from the previous session. Investors turned their attention back to the tech sector as attention shifts to upcoming inflation data and the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

Recovering from the Crash: How Did Wall Street Overcome Monday's Slump?
The major indexes fell sharply earlier in the week amid rising Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and a reassessment of U.S. interest rate expectations. Each of the three major indexes lost about 1%.

However, falling bond yields sent the market into a buying frenzy on Tuesday, with attention once again focused on high-growth stocks that benefit from lower borrowing costs. As a result, investors increasingly bought shares of tech giants, which are traditionally sensitive to changes in the cost of capital.

Tech on the Rise: Palantir and Palo Alto Lead
The information technology sector led the S&P 500's gains, adding 2.1%. The biggest contributors were Palantir Technologies, which jumped 6.6%, and Palo Alto Networks, which gained 5.1%.

The Magnificent Seven Are Back: Nvidia Sets the Tone
Among the "magnificent seven" tech titans, Nvidia has attracted particular attention. Its shares soared by 4.1%, recording the largest daily gain in the last month. Other tech giants such as Apple, Tesla and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) were also in the green, adding between 1.4% and 1.8%.

Slight Growth Amid Expectations
Despite the positive mood, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed to rise only slightly compared to last week's levels. However, the tech sector continues to attract investors' attention amid expectations of new inflation data and corporate earnings reports that could set the direction of the market's future.

Confident Rise: Major US Indexes End the Day on a Positive Note
On Tuesday, US stock indexes once again demonstrated upward momentum, recouping some of the losses from the previous days.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.97%, rising 55.19 points to 5,751.13. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, adding 259.01 points to 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 126.13 points, or 0.30%, to end the day at 42,080.37.

Rates Are the Key Driver: What's Happening to Trader Sentiment?
Despite the positive momentum, investors continue to closely monitor any signals that could hint at the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. A decline in Treasury yields has been a catalyst for buying in the tech sector, but uncertainty around interest rates continues to dominate the market.

Throughout the year, market participants have been held hostage by the Fed, scrutinizing every macroeconomic report for hints of a possible policy shift. The main question on investors' minds is: when and at what speed will the Fed begin its long-awaited rate cuts?

Expectations shift: All eyes on inflation data
Last week, economic data, including a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday, forced the market to slightly revise its expectations. Investors began pricing in a lower probability of an aggressive rate cut. Instead of a 50 basis point cut, most analysts now expect the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting in November.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

Crucial Benchmark: Inflation to Lead the Way
The next big move in this "expectations game" will come on Thursday, when the CPI data is released. It is these numbers that will be critical to understanding the Fed's next moves and how soon the regulator will begin to ease its tight policy. Any deviation from the forecasts can immediately affect the behavior of markets and investor sentiment.

In any case, interest rates will remain the focus of market attention in the coming days, and any changes in macroeconomic data will be closely monitored to see which way the scales will tip – towards further easing or maintaining tight policy by the Fed.

Markets at a Crossroads: Inflation and Employment Are Crucial Indicators for the Fed
Leading macroeconomic reports continue to be the focus of investors' attention, shaping expectations for the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. According to Jason Pride, head of investment strategy at Glenmede, it is the latest labor market data and the consumer price index (CPI) that will be the key benchmarks for the Fed ahead of their next meeting.

"If the CPI report comes in within the forecast range, this will be a signal for the regulator to limit the rate cut by 25 basis points in November," Pride said, commenting on the current expectations of market participants.

Sectoral confusion: who won and lost in the trading?
Amid the mixed movement of stocks on Tuesday, most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended the day in positive territory, but there were exceptions. Two sectors ended in the negative zone: materials and energy. The materials index (.SPLRCM) fell by 0.4%, which happened against the backdrop of a decline in metals prices. Investors lost optimism about possible measures to support the economy from the Chinese government, which led to a decrease in quotes in this segment.

Amid the general pessimism, shares of major Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also felt the pressure. For example, Alibaba Group, JD.com and PDD Holdings fell by 5.4%, 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively, following the decline of Chinese domestic indices.

Energy sector under attack: why did oil retreat?
The biggest losers were the energy sector (.SPNY), which fell by 2.6% - the largest daily drop since August 20. The reason is the correction in oil prices after their rapid rise at the beginning of the week. Concerns about slowing global demand and uncertainty around economic stimulus in China weakened support for oil, which was reflected in the quotations of energy companies.

Earnings season: the market awaits banking giants
Investors are also focusing on the third-quarter earnings season. This Friday, attention will be focused on large US banks, which will be the first to present their financial results. According to analysts at LSEG, the average earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is expected to be around 5%.

PepsiCo Surprises: Earnings Beat Expectations
Among the companies that reported on Tuesday, PepsiCo stood out. The largest maker of beverages and snacks rose 1.9% after publishing adjusted earnings per share data that beat market expectations. Despite cutting its full-year sales growth forecast, investors took the company's results as a positive sign, which helped support the rise in its shares.

Amid growing interest in data and macroeconomic guidance, the market continues to balance expectations for Fed easing with concerns about global economic risks. The next earnings reports could be a determining factor for the future direction of stock markets.

Wall Street Trading: Investors Recover Losses Awaiting New Data
US stock markets ended Tuesday on a positive note after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted strong gains. With geopolitical pressure easing and tech sector signals up, stock indexes were able to partially recover from their previous declines. Total trading volume on US exchanges was 11.57 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.1 billion shares.

US Rally Overshadows Weak Chinese Stimulus
The rally in global markets was largely driven by a rally on Wall Street, which was able to offset investor disappointment over the lack of concrete support measures from China. Market participants are eagerly awaiting details on possible stimulus measures, but for now their attention is shifted to upcoming macroeconomic reports in the US and the start of the quarterly earnings season.

Technology lifts the index: S&P 500 is back in the game
US indices showed a confident rebound yesterday after falling by 1% the day before. A particularly powerful leap was recorded in the technology sector, where the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.97%, rising by 55.19 points, and closed at 5,751.13. In turn, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) strengthened by 1.45%, jumping by 259.01 points and ending the session at 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.30%, increasing by 126.13 points to 42,080.37.

Monday's decline: what caused it?
The decline at the start of the week was caused by concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a reassessment of expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, increased concerns that the Fed will not rush to ease its policy, which led to a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

Waiting for a new signal: what will inflation show?
All attention is now focused on fresh inflation data, which will be published on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) will be an important marker for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, this could reinforce current expectations that the Fed will take a tougher stance on interest rates.

Banking sector prepares for the start of the reporting season
Investors are also preparing for the start of the corporate reporting season. The largest US banks, which are traditionally the first to disclose their financial results, will give the start later this week. Attention will be focused on their comments on the state of the economy and the outlook for the monetary policy shift.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Markets?
With US indices recovering and geopolitical concerns easing, investor sentiment remains heavily dependent on upcoming macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. Inflation, the labour market and the Fed's strategy will all shape the trading dynamics in the coming weeks, impacting investors' appetite for risk assets and, therefore, the sustainability of the current rally.

European Markets Under Pressure: What Went Wrong?
European stock indices ended lower on Tuesday as investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete details on China's new fiscal stimulus. Market expectations were not met, leading to a fall in stocks focused on Chinese demand, such as miners and luxury goods makers.

Global Indicators: Who Managed to Hold Their Ground?
MSCI's global share index showed a small gain, rising 0.15% to 844.96 points, thanks to a partial recovery in the US and Asian markets. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.55%, reflecting the general mood of pessimism on the continental markets.

Hong Kong in the epicenter of turmoil: Hang Seng index falls at a record pace
The main disappointment was the dynamics of Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which fell by 9.4% - the largest drop since 2008. This happened after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie, who assured that the country's economy is "confidently" moving towards its goals for 2024. Moreover, he noted that the authorities intend to direct 200 billion yuan (about 28.36 billion US dollars) to support regional projects and investment in infrastructure. However, investors were expecting much more, as the lack of concrete steps and new support measures has raised doubts about Beijing's ability to effectively counter the current economic downturn.

Chinese Stocks Slip: Mistrust of Government Words
After the end of the national holidays, Chinese stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI300 showed sharp declines, falling by 4.6% and 5.9%, respectively. These losses effectively "ate up" a significant part of recent gains accumulated amid expectations of a large-scale economic stimulus. The decline in indices was a response to the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese government's plans and the lack of clear signals about further economic stimulus.

Bonds and Rates: The US in Waiting Mode
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market saw a slight decline in yields, reflecting investor caution in an uncertain environment. Market participants continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's signals, trying to understand how macroeconomic data and the regulator's positioning will affect the trajectory of interest rates.

What's Next? Investors Look for New Benchmarks
Amid a general decline in stock markets, investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The focus remains on the upcoming inflation and corporate profit reports in the US. In the coming days, it is these data that will determine the further direction of both US and international indices. Any surprises, be they positive or negative, could trigger significant changes in the markets, especially against the backdrop of fragile confidence in the prospects for China's economic recovery.

While markets are looking for new reference points, the issue of trust in the actions of central banks and governments comes to the fore: their decisions can either support investor sentiment or exacerbate volatility in financial markets.

The intrigue remains: markets are wondering what the Fed will do
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is estimated at 87.3%. However, there is still a small chance - 12.7% - that the Fed will choose to leave rates unchanged. Just a week ago, the market had a different view: expectations for a rate cut were almost fully priced in, but uncertainty about the size of the next step has reduced the likelihood of a more aggressive easing by 50 basis points.

US Treasury yields remain stable
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a key benchmark for markets, fell by 0.6 basis points to 4.02%. Such a small change indicates continued caution amid ongoing speculation about the Fed's next steps and the macroeconomic situation in the country.

Oil: from recovery to correction
After the recent rally triggered by geopolitical risks, oil prices have sharply corrected downwards. The main driver of the decline is easing concerns about supply disruptions amid the military standoff in the Middle East and improving weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. WTI crude lost 4.63% to $73.57 a barrel, while Brent crude also fell 4.63% to close at $77.18 a barrel.

Middle East in Focus: Netanyahu Expands Offensive
Military tensions in the Middle East continue, weighing on global markets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that airstrikes had killed two key successors to the slain Hezbollah leader, in the latest escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, the group's deputy leader left the door open for ceasefire talks, raising hopes for a possible easing of tensions. The comments came just hours after Israel expanded its offensive against Iran-backed militias.

Currency Markets: Dollar under pressure, pound and euro in positive territory
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was unchanged, closing at 102.48. Meanwhile, the euro showed a slight strengthening, adding 0.04% to $1.0978. The Japanese yen weakened by 0.07%, and the dollar rose to 148.29 yen per unit of the American currency. In contrast, the pound sterling strengthened by 0.13%, rising to $1.31, demonstrating confidence amid relative stability in European markets.

Uncertainty remains: what lies ahead for markets?
The current fluctuations in financial markets reflect the ambivalent mood of investors. Amid geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets, traders' attention is shifting to macroeconomic reports and upcoming central bank meetings. The publication of US inflation data and further signals from the Fed could become catalysts for both further growth and a new round of volatility on global markets.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today is the second consecutive day of positive momentum for gold, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Gold continues to gain positive momentum as markets anticipate additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The sharp rise in weekly jobless claims in the U.S. indicates signs of weakness in the labor market, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue reducing interest rates. This, in turn, leads to a modest decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the upward momentum of gold.

Following the release of stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data in the U.S. yesterday, investors have ruled out the possibility of another substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These developments, following stronger-than-expected inflation data, helped the U.S. dollar halt its corrective pullback from the mid-August high, posing a headwind for gold.

Today, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and statements from the Federal Reserve are key indicators to watch for short-term momentum.

Technical Analysis: A solid rebound from the psychological level of $2600 and a subsequent move above the $2630 level favor the bulls. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the precious metal is upward. Consequently, further strength toward the resistance level of $2656 and into the supply zone at $2672 appears likely. From there, momentum could lift the XAU/USD pair toward its recent high near $2700. If surpassed, this level could pave the way for the continuation of the established multi-month upward trend.

On the other hand, the Asian session low around the $2630 level serves as support. A break below this level could challenge the key $2600 support. A convincing break beneath this psychological level could signal deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair could then continue its corrective decline toward the next support zone near $2560, progressing toward the $2532 level before ultimately descending to the psychological level of $2500.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

Talks and earnings: 114 companies set to surprise, but Nasdaq already up

Market pauses: Stocks fall after record highs
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended lower on Monday, ending an impressive six-week rally. Investors were wary of rising Treasury yields and were waiting for more earnings reports from major companies.

Resting after a winning streak
"After six weeks of consecutive records, it's logical that the market needs a breather," said Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. With bond yields rising, market participants are taking a break, reassessing their outlook amid concerns about lofty market valuations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 344.31 points, or 0.80%, to 42,931.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to end the day at 5,853.98. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to 18,540.01, helped by a rally in Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares. The chipmaker's shares jumped 4.14%, closing at a record high of $143.71.

Bond Questions and Investor Concerns
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.17%, the highest in 12 weeks. This raised questions about the economic outlook.

"An increase in bond yields could indicate that the economy is growing too quickly, as well as persistently high employment levels," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. According to him, such a situation could slow the process of lowering interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

Last week - a series of records
Recall that on Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 indices updated their records, ending the sixth week in positive territory in a row - the longest rally this year.

Tech under pressure: Giants fall ahead of earnings
Rate-sensitive tech stocks were under pressure, with Tesla (TSLA.O) falling 0.84%, one of the victims of rising bond yields that has added to investor anxiety.

Findings in focus: Tesla and Coca-Cola in the crosshairs
After a strong start to earnings season, investors were eagerly awaiting the results of 114 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week, including giants Tesla, Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Texas Instruments (TXN.O).

Analysts believe that market participants are taking some profits ahead of a busy earnings week. "Many are now assessing how overblown current market expectations are," said David Laut, chief investment officer at Abound Financial.

As of Friday, 83.1% of companies that had reported earnings in the past period had beaten earnings estimates, according to LSEG, highlighting the relative strength of the corporate sector.

Broad declines: from real estate to small caps
The decline on Monday affected almost all the key sectors of the S&P 500, with 11 of them ending the day in the red. The traditionally rate-sensitive real estate sector (.SPLRCR) lost 2.08% as bond yields rose, while the tech sector managed to show positive momentum, led by a rise in Nvidia shares.

The Russell 2000 (.RUT), which includes economically sensitive small-cap companies, fell 1.61%, reflecting the jitters in the market.

Elections and volatility: Political factors in play
Investors are also keeping a close eye on the upcoming US presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is showing positive momentum in the latest polls.

Danske Bank analysts warn: "As the election date approaches, even small changes in the polls could be a catalyst for significant swings in market sentiment."

Boeing in positive territory, Spirit Airlines soars on news
Boeing (BA.N) shares rose 3.1% on news that a five-week strike could end. Workers could vote on a new deal that would allow the company to avoid further losses related to the production shutdown.

Spirit Airlines on High: Shares Surge
Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) shares soared 53.06%, which was a reaction to successful negotiations to extend the refinancing of its debt by two months. This allowed the company to buy time and stabilize its financial obligations, which attracted the attention of investors.

Healthcare Sector Decline: Humana and Cigna Lose
On the opposite side of the market, Humana (HUM.N) shares fell 2.46%. This is due to Cigna (CI.N) resuming merger talks with Humana, which caused some concerns in the market. The decline did not pass by Cigna shares, which lost 4.69%.

Economic Week: Key Reports on the Horizon
Investors are expecting the publication of a number of key economic data this week, including home sales reports, preliminary PMI indices, as well as durable goods data. In addition, the market will be focused on the release of the so-called Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, a document assessing the state of the economy.

Bearish sentiment prevails
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the vast majority of stocks ended the day in the red: for every one advancing stock, there were 3.51 declining ones. However, there were still some positive moments in the market: 262 new highs and 47 new lows were recorded.

The S&P 500 posted 42 new yearly highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite Index posted 89 new highs and 51 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.35 billion shares, slightly below the average volume of 11.59 billion over the past 20 trading days.

Markets under pressure: Geopolitics and elections keep investors on edge
Global stock markets started the week lower as rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election kept traders cautious. This market sentiment played into gold's hands, as futures for the precious metal soared again, reaching new records.

Gold in Focus: The Precious Metal at its Peak
Gold prices hit new all-time highs on Monday, remaining at $2,719.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to close the day at $2,738.9. Gold's rise reflects investor sentiment, which is seeking safe havens amid uncertainty and turbulence in global markets.

Nvidia Continues to Win
Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares are back on a high, finishing at a record high. The gains come ahead of a big earnings week, raising investor expectations for strong financial results.

European and Asian indices under pressure
European stock markets also fell in the general negative trend, with the STOXX index losing 0.66%. MSCI's Global Equities Index, which covers stock markets around the world, fell 0.37%. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.5%.

Earnings Season and Elections: Risk Factors for the Market
As James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, noted, there is a certain nervousness in the market right now due to the start of the busy earnings season. However, investors' attention is still focused on the US elections, which will take place in two weeks. Despite this, the usual pre-election volatility of September and October is felt less this year.

Oil recoups losses: growth against the background of the previous drawdown
Oil prices demonstrate confident growth, adding almost 2% after a significant drop last week. Brent crude futures increased by 1.68%, reaching $ 74.29 per barrel, and American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose by 1.94%, stopping at $ 70.56 per barrel. This growth signals the return of confidence among market participants after the past fluctuations.

Fed in the crosshairs: probability of a rate cut
Markets are actively monitoring the probability of a Fed rate cut at the November meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is estimated at 89.3%. Meanwhile, the chances of maintaining the current rate level remain minimal - only 10.7%.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also extended its climb, rising 11.9 basis points to 4.194%. The data underscores the tension in the market as players try to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Dollar Strengthens as Bond Yields Rise
The US dollar continued to strengthen, supported by rising bond yields. The euro, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.46% to $1.0815. Sterling also lost ground, falling 0.51% to $1.2982.

The Japanese yen came under pressure, with the dollar up 0.86% against the yen to $150.79. The gains in the US currency reflected global market sentiment driven by expectations of a tighter US monetary policy.

ECB Cuts Rates Again, German Producer Prices Continue to Fall
The European Central Bank took another step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting interest rates for the third time this year. The measures are aimed at supporting the eurozone economy amid slowing growth and inflation pressures.

German Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected
New data on Monday showed that German producer prices fell more than expected in September, adding to concerns about the outlook for Europe's largest economy, where manufacturing sectors continue to struggle amid global economic uncertainty.

Dollar Continues to Rise: Amid Global Tensions
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro and yen, rose 0.49% to 103.97. The dollar's gains come as geopolitical tensions continue to mount, with the US presidential election looming, leading to increased market jitters.

Markets Brace for Election: Caution Among Investors

"With the Middle East escalating and the US election just days away, it is likely that markets are starting to get jittery and participants are trying to rebalance their positions," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv