GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 5th (analysis of morning deals). Sellers managed to protect 1.2779, but what's next

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2779 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The rise and formation of a false breakout there led to a sell signal, but after moving down by 12 points, the pressure on the pound decreased. As long as trading remains below 1.2779, the signal can be expected to work, but everything will depend on US data. The technical picture for the second half of the day still needs to be revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

Only very strong data on the increase in employment from ADP, exceeding economists' forecasts, and an increase in business activity in the US services sector from ISM will lead to a decline in the pound and a return to yesterday's low, which I plan to take advantage of. A decline and formation of a false breakout around the new support at 1.2746 will provide an entry point for long positions, anticipating a return and update of 1.2779, which could not be surpassed in the first half of the day. Only a breakout and a reverse top-down test of this range will provide a suitable entry point for buying the pound, leading to an update of the next resistance at 1.2810, the month's high. The furthest target will be the 1.2853 area, where I plan to take profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD declining and a lack of bullish activity around 1.2746 amid strong US statistics, all buyers' efforts from yesterday will be negated. This will also lead to a decline and an update of the next support at 1.2721, formed at the end of last week. Only a false breakout formation will be suitable for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2695 minimum with the goal of a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

The advantage will stay with the sellers as long as trading remains below 1.2779. This will allow the morning sell signal to materialize, but as mentioned above, much depends on the US statistics. In case of weak data, the bears will have to prove their advantage again around 1.2779. A false breakout formation there, similar to what I discussed above, will confirm the presence of large sellers in the market and provide an entry point for short positions with the goal of further GBP/USD decline towards the support at 1.2746. A breakout and reverse bottom-up test of this range will give the bears an advantage and another entry point for a sale to update 1.2721, where I expect more active buyer presence. The furthest target will be the 1.2695 minimum, which will trap the pair in a wide sideways channel. There, I will take profit. With GBP/USD rising and no bears at 1.2779 in the second half of the day, buyers will regain the initiative, having the opportunity to update 1.2810. I will also sell there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity, I advise opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2853, anticipating a 30-35 point downward correction within the day.

Wall Street Sliding: S&P 500, Nasdaq Fall Ahead of Jobs Data

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended Thursday with small losses ahead of a major jobs report, retreating from record highs hit the day before. The Dow, however, edged up slightly.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started the day higher and hit intraday records, but then retreated as tech stocks slid.

Utilities and industrials also contributed to the S&P 500's decline, with consumer discretionary and energy leading the gains.

Nvidia shares fell 1.1%, falling to third place in the world's most valuable companies, behind Apple, which regained the second spot.

Investors are eyeing a key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The latest weekly jobless claims report points to a softening labor market that could allow the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates. The European Central Bank cut its interest rate for the first time since 2019.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 78.84 points, or 0.20%, to 38,886.17. The S&P 500 lost 1.07 points, or 0.02%, to 5,352.96, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 14.78 points, or 0.09%, to 17,173.12.

Among the Dow Jones components, Salesforce Inc. was the top gainer, up 6.23 points (2.63%) to close at 242.76. Amazon.com Inc. was up 3.72 points (2.05%) to close at 185.00.

Nike Inc. was up 1.40 points (1.48%) to close at 95.72.

Intel Corporation was the top loser, down 0.36 points (1.17%) to 30.42. 3M Company shares added 0.84 points (0.85%) to close at 98.22, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares fell 3.58 points (0.78%) to end at 458.10.

Among the S&P 500 index's top gainers were Illumina Inc shares, which rose 7.42% to close at 114.72. PayPal Holdings Inc shares rose 5.49% to close at 67.02, while MarketAxess Holdings Inc shares increased 4.86% to end at 205.97.

NRG Energy Inc shares showed the biggest decline, losing 4.56% to close at 77.83. Hubbell Inc shares fell 4.11% to end at 365.94. Eaton Corporation PLC fell 4.02% to 313.46.

The biggest gainers on the NASDAQ Composite were Virax Biolabs Group Ltd, up 85.85% to 1.97. SilverSun Technologies Inc rose 68.61% to close at 220.00, while Fibrobiologics Inc rose 53.88% to 10.31.

Cue Health Inc was the worst performer, down 79.95% to 0.01. Plutonian Acquisition Corp fell 58.10% to close at 2.43. Actelis Networks Inc fell 47.04% to 1.97.

The rise of Nvidia and other AI-related stocks has been a key factor in supporting Wall Street's rally this year. The chipmaker has contributed significantly to the S&P 500's gain of more than 12% for the year.

Traders are pricing in a 68% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool, and are pricing in two rate cuts this year, according to LSEG data. Forecasters polled by Reuters also expect two rate cuts.

"We're in a period of uncertainty between now and tomorrow," said Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York. "But overall, we're seeing the beginning of a global, coordinated easing policy from central banks in the West, with the exception of Japan, which is tightening," he added.

GameStop shares jumped 47% after a popular online influencer known as "Roaring Kitty" announced on YouTube that she would be livestreaming on Friday.

Lululemon Athletica shares rose 4.8% after the company beat first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates.

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (9866.HK) fell 6.8% after reporting a quarterly net loss.

Five Below shares fell 10.6% after the discount store operator lowered its full-year net sales forecast.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks on the NYSE by a 1.05-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, 1,729 stocks ended higher and 2,445 ended lower, for a 1.41-to-1 ratio in favor of decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 57 new highs and 110 new lows. Total equity trading volume on U.S. exchanges was about 10.4 billion, below the 20-day average of 12.7 billion.

August gold futures rose 0.69%, or 16.50, to $2.00 a troy ounce. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery rose 2.01%, or 1.49, to $75.56 a barrel. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose 1.87%, or 1.47, to $79.88 a barrel.
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S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new highs: What to expect from Fed meeting, CPI data

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit new record closing highs on Monday, despite investor caution ahead of consumer price data and the Federal Reserve's policy announcement this week.

Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares provided some support to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, rising 0.7% after a 10-for-one stock split. Some investors now believe the chipmaker could be added to the Dow.

The May CPI report is due Wednesday, coinciding with the end of the Fed's two-day meeting.

The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged while issuing updated economic and policy forecasts. Investors will be watching closely for any hints of a possible rate cut down the road.

"It's a big week for the market in terms of Fed commentary and statements," said Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"Additionally, the CPI report is due Wednesday morning. Everything related to the economy and inflation is viewed through the prism of the Fed's actions by the market," he added.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 69.05 points, or 0.18%, to 38,868.04. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 13.8 points, or 0.26%, to 5,360.79, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 59.40 points, or 0.35%, to 17,192.53.

Traders trimmed their expectations for a September rate cut after stronger-than-expected May employment data on Friday, leaving the chance of a cut at 50%.

Apple (AAPL.O) shares fell 1.9% on the first day of its annual iPhone developer conference, with investors eagerly awaiting news on how the company will integrate artificial intelligence into its products.

Among the day's best performers were Southwest Airlines (LUV.N), which jumped 7% after activist investor Elliott Investment Management acquired a $1.9 billion stake in the company.

Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO.N) rose 10.9% after oilfield services company Noble (NE.N) announced it was buying a rival for $1.59 billion. Noble also rose 6.1%.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks 1.06-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange, while gainers were outnumbered 1.01-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 19 new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 56 new highs and 177 new lows.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 10.39 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.80 billion.

MSCI's global share index rose on Monday, despite investor expectations for key U.S. inflation data and an upcoming central bank meeting. The euro, however, slipped after French President Emmanuel Macron announced an early election.

U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors digested Friday's labor market data and looked ahead to consumer price data and a Federal Reserve statement this week. Eyes were also focused on the Bank of Japan's possible decisions.

Adding to the uncertainty was political instability in the euro zone's second-largest economy. Far-right gains in the European Parliament elections on Sunday prompted Macron to call a national election.

The euro hit a one-month low against the dollar, while European stocks also suffered.

"The uncertainty is coming from multiple sources. "The European elections over the weekend added volatility to the markets," said Chad Oviatt, director of investment management at Huntington National Bank.

The STOXX 600 index, which covers pan-European stocks, closed down 0.27%. France's blue-chip CAC 40 index fell 1.4%, hitting a more than three-month low.

However, the MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) turned from bearish to bullish territory by the end of the day, and Wall Street partially recouped its gains. As a result, the global index rose 0.75 points, or 0.09%, to 794.99.

Huntington National Bank's Oviatt said investors are eagerly awaiting the release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday morning, ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision Wednesday afternoon.

Adding to the uncertainty about the impact of economic data on the Fed's interest rate policy was Friday's jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added significantly more jobs in May than expected and annual wage growth accelerated again.

"Everyone seems to be hoping for a rate cut, but so far that hasn't been the case. "So everyone is looking to the CPI data on Wednesday morning, hoping that will give us more information and commentary from the Fed in the afternoon to clarify the situation," said Jim Barnes, director of bonds at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, rose Monday, reflecting expectations for higher, longer-term U.S. rates.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.1 basis points to 4.469%, up from 4.428% late Friday. The 30-year yield also rose, up 4.8 basis points to 4.5958%.

The 2-year yield, which typically responds to changes in interest rate expectations, rose 1.5 basis points to 4.8846% from 4.87% late Friday.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro fell to its lowest since May 9 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.37% to $1.076. Earlier, the euro hit a near two-year low against sterling.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen, rose 0.08% to 105.14. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.21% to 157.03.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is holding a two-day monetary policy meeting this week and may offer new guidance on tapering its massive bond purchases.

In commodities, oil prices hit a one-week high on hopes for a pickup in fuel demand this summer. However, a stronger dollar and fading expectations for a U.S. rate cut capped gains.

U.S. crude rose 2.93% to $77.74 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.52% to $81.63 a barrel.

Gold prices pared their losses after their biggest drop in 3.5 years in the previous session, as investors awaited inflation data and a policy statement from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold rose 0.72% to $2,309.15 an ounce.
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Tech Leads Wall Street to Records, Nasdaq, S&P 500 High

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their fourth straight record closing high on Thursday, while Treasury yields fell to their lowest since early April. Investors reacted to lower-than-expected inflation data and a modest rate-cutting outlook from the Federal Reserve.

The dollar strengthened against major currencies as the Fed's hawkish stance and the prospect of trade tensions between Europe and China sent European stocks sharply lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day slightly lower. The Labor Department reported that producer prices fell 0.2% in May from the previous month, though they rose 2.2% year-on-year, 20 basis points above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Separately, initial jobless claims hit a 10-month high. The data came after a weaker-than-expected consumer price index report on Wednesday and a revision to the Fed's forecasts, which now call for only one rate cut this year instead of three.

"After a solid rally, markets are taking a bit of a break from yesterday's big news, and that's a good thing," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, Neb. "We call it the calm after the storm — consolidating the gains we saw in the first half of June."

Despite the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, expectations are growing that the central bank will cut rates for the first time as soon as September.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, financial markets are pricing in a 60.5% chance of the Fed cutting its target rate by 25 basis points in September.

"The Fed may sound hawkish, but they are dependent on economic data," Detrick said. "With today's positive PPI data, the market is thinking the Fed could ease if inflation continues to decline."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 65.17 points, or 0.17%, to 38,647.04. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 12.71 points, or 0.23%, to 5,433.74, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 59.12 points, or 0.34%, to 17,667.56.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs for the fourth straight session on Thursday, driven by a continued rally in tech stocks.

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims last week, while another report showed an unexpected decline in producer prices in May, bolstering hopes for an early Fed rate cut.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday forecast only one rate cut this year, down from three quarter-percentage-point cuts in March.

The S&P 500 tech sector (.SPLRCT) jumped 1.4% and the semiconductor index (.SOX) rose 1.5%, both hitting record closing highs.

Broadcom (AVGO.O) shares soared 12.3% after raising its revenue forecast for chips used in artificial intelligence technology. The company also announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split.

Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, while Apple (AAPL.O) rose 0.5%.

Adobe (ADBE.O) shares rose more than 14% in after-hours trading after the software maker beat Wall Street's second-quarter revenue expectations. However, the stock was down 0.2% in the main session.

New data released Wednesday showed that the consumer price index was unchanged in May for the first time in nearly two years, raising concerns among some investors that the economy could be slowing too much.

The economically sensitive industrial sector (.SPLRCI) fell 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT) fell 0.9%.

Tesla (TSLA.O) shares rose 2.9% after shareholders approved Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.14 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.49 billion.

European shares ended wider lower, with the auto sector particularly hard hit as investors worried about Beijing's retaliatory measures to the European Union's new tariffs on electric vehicles from China.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 1.31%, while MSCI's global share index (.MIWD00000PUS) lost 0.27%.

Emerging market shares rose 0.64%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.67%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.40%.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell on weak economic data.

Benchmark 10-year notes rose 13/32, sending yields down to 4.2442% from 4.295% late Wednesday.

30-year notes rose 27/32, sending yields down to 4.4% from 4.45% late Wednesday.

The dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.53%, while the euro fell 0.64% to $1.0738.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.22% against the greenback to hit $157.09 per dollar, while sterling was last at $1.2761, down 0.27% on the day.

Oil prices edged up amid choppy trading, with supply growth and a delayed Fed rate cut offset by economic data.

The price of U.S. crude oil rose 0.15% to $78.62 per barrel, while the price of Brent rose 0.18%, stopping at $82.75 per barrel.

Gold prices fell amid a stronger dollar after the release of the PPI report, which was weaker than expected. Spot gold lost 0.8%, reaching $2,303.15 per ounce.
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The main events by the morning: June 18

The 1992 agreement on the avoidance of double taxation with Russia has been suspended. This was stated by the US Treasury Department. There is no exact information yet, but the measure may affect the W8-BEN form, which reduces the tax on Russian dividends from companies from the United States from 30% to 13%. The suspension will take effect on August 16, 2024.

Sanctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange and its subsidiaries will not have a significant impact on the purchase by non-residents of blocked foreign securities of Russians, the Investment Chamber said. In fact, NSD was already under sanctions.

Foreign flowers may disappear from the Russian market. Russia plans to impose restrictions on the import of flowers from unfriendly countries due to the Rosselkhoznadzor's claims to the quality of their products.

Putin arrived in North Korea today. The Russian president ordered the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with the DPRK.

Beer exports from the European Union to Russia are resuming. In April, the volume of beer exports to Russia amounted to 23 million euros, which is the highest since August last year.

In the context of the recovery of global coal exports, Russia is losing its share in this market. According to the calculations of the Price Index Center, Russian exporters already account for less than 14.6% of global supplies, compared to 17.1% in 2021.
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From Record to Bust: How Chips and the Economy Shaped the S&P 500

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower Thursday as market leader Nvidia shares pulled back from earlier gains. Investors were poring over fresh economic data and Federal Reserve statements to see when interest rates might be cut this year.

Earlier, the S&P 500 hit 5,500 for the first time in history, in line with many brokerage firms' year-end forecasts. The Nasdaq ended a seven-day run of record closing highs.

Stocks on Wall Street retreated from early record highs despite gains in overseas benchmarks. U.S. Treasury yields rose on weak economic data and expectations of more bond issuance next week.

The dollar gained ground as U.S. yields rose, widening the gap with non-dollar rates that have been trending lower. It reached 160 yen, prompting Tokyo to intervene in late April to support its currency.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to hold on to gains. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) extended a streak of intraday record highs before falling, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-session run of record highs at the close.

Disappointing housing starts and building permits data, as well as a report on jobless claims, suggest a gradual cooling in the labor market, confirming that the Fed's restrictive policies are having the intended effect.

"Weaker-than-expected economic data suggests that high and long-term interest rates are achieving the Fed's goals," said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York. "These signs of a slight slowdown in the economy will be welcomed by the Fed as they consider lowering interest rates."

That, coupled with the dovish sentiment expressed by the Bank of England, which has held off on easing ahead of the upcoming U.K. general election, and the Swiss National Bank's rate cut, has created room for the Fed to maneuver on the timing of its rate cuts.

Wall Street's rally was fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, led by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), which recently became the world's most valuable company by market capitalization. However, despite the morning gains, Nvidia shares fell about 2%.

Nvidia shares fell 3.54% after the morning gains. The chipmaker overtook Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company on Tuesday.

Dell (DELL.N) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) shares also fell 0.42% and 0.26%, respectively, after initially rallying on news that Elon Musk's AI startup had won server orders.

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell last week, but the latest data showed the total number of people receiving benefits reached its highest level since January, suggesting the U.S. labor market is continuing to cool.

Separately, data showed that U.S. single-family home starts fell in May, reflecting continued high mortgage rates.

The energy (.SPNY) and utilities (.SPLRCU) sectors were the biggest gainers among the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, rising 1.86% and 0.89%, respectively, while the technology sector (.SPLRCT) led the declines.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it would take a year or two for inflation to return to 2% as wage growth remains high, raising concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for a long time.

Money markets are pricing in a 58% chance of the U.S. central bank cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, according to LSEG FedWatch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 299.90 points, or 0.77%, to 39,134.76. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 13.86 points, or 0.25%, to 5,473.17 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 140.64 points, or 0.79%, to 17,721.59.

Kroger (KR.N) shares fell 3.27% after the company expressed caution about near-term consumer spending while reiterating its full-year sales and profit forecasts despite beating first-quarter estimates.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 14.56%, weighed down by potential dilution after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the company's application to resell certain shares and warrants, netting it about $247 million in proceeds.

European stocks were strengthened by the technology and real estate sectors, as well as gains in Swiss stocks after the central bank continued to ease monetary policy.

The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.93%, while the broader European FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3) index rose 0.90%.

The MSCI Worldwide Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) hit a record high but ended the day down 0.15% at 803.89.

Emerging market stocks lost 0.06%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ended the day down 0.16%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.16%.

U.S. Treasury yields initially fell after the economic data, then began to rise again.

The market is eagerly awaiting an auction next week that will offer about $183 billion in two-, five- and seven-year U.S. Treasuries. Investors often sell Treasuries ahead of auctions to boost their yields and then buy them back at a lower price, a practice known as concessioning.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield has risen 3.7 basis points since late Tuesday to 4.254%. The 30-year yield has risen 3.7 basis points to 4.3908%. The yield on the two-year note, which is typically correlated with interest rate expectations, rose 2.7 basis points to 4.7308%.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro, rose 0.4% to 105.63, while the euro fell 0.34% to end the day at $1.0703.

The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen to its highest since April 29, up 0.51% to 158.89 yen.

The British pound fell to a five-week low against the dollar, down 0.43% to last trade at $1.2662.

"When we talk about dollar strength, it feels like for the first time in a long time there's a divergence in global monetary policy... Fed spokespeople continue to talk about the need for patience and time," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in New York.

"The dollar is standing out in a weak competitive environment, particularly in Japan, which is making things worse," Hogan added.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.74% to $82.17 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.75% to $85.71 a barrel.

Spot gold rose 1.36% to $2,359.22 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 1.01% to $2,354.00 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 0.27% to $65,029.00, while Ethereum fell 0.47% to $3,534.8.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1.03 to 1, with 248 new highs and 118 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 31 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 39 new highs and 217 new lows.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.98 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 13.51 billion shares.
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As the West Changes Investing Course, the East Reacts with Indexes Rising

The Dow hit a one-month high on Monday, while the Nasdaq fell more than 1% as investors switched from artificial intelligence stocks to laggards on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower as investors shifted away from tech stocks, whose overextended gains have fueled this year's rally. However, nine of the 11 major S&P 500 industries rose.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O) have fallen 6.68% in three sessions as observers noted profit-taking after last week's meteoric rise made the company the world's most valuable.

Nvidia's decline triggered a sell-off in the tech sector, leading to significant losses. On Monday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was down 0.3%, the Nasdaq (.IXIC) was down more than 1%, and the SOX semiconductor index (.SOX) lost more than 3%.

Other chipmakers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom (AVGO.O), Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O), fell 3.53% to 5.7%, leading the SOX index to fall 3.02%.

"The market is selling some winners and buying some laggards," said Jack Janasiewicz, chief strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. "This is due to expectations of soft inflation data coming out on Friday."

Tech (.SPLRCT) and consumer discretionary were the only sectors among the 11 S&P 500 indexes to decline, while energy led the gains, rising 2.73%.

"There's a rotation into value sectors like financials, energy and utilities. Energy is also benefiting from a small jump in oil prices," said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.

Oil prices rose Monday, supporting gains in energy and oilfield services stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) jumped to snap a five-day winning streak. The Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT) also hit a one-week high, signaling broader gains in the market.

With the exception of Nvidia and other chipmakers, "the rest of the market is positive, expecting a soft landing," said Carl Ludvigson, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

Investors are focused this week on Friday's PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which is expected to show modest price pressures.

Investors still expect two rate cuts this year, pricing in a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, according to FedWatch LSEG data. The Fed's latest forecast calls for one rate cut in December.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said she doesn't think rates need to be cut until policymakers are confident that inflation is approaching 2%.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 15.73 points, or 0.29%, to end at 5,448.89. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 190.19 points, or 1.09%, to 17,499.17. The Dow rose 257.99 points, or 0.66%, to 39,408.32.

Other big stories this week include durable goods data, weekly jobless claims, final first-quarter GDP data and a year-over-year rebound in the Russell Index. There will also be some quarterly earnings reports.

President Joe Biden and his Republican rival Donald Trump will debate in Atlanta on Thursday, which could impact the outcome of the November election, which polls show is neck-and-neck.

Meta Platforms (META.O) shares rose after a report that the Facebook parent is discussing integrating its generative AI model into Apple's (AAPL.O) new iPhone AI system. Apple shares also rose.

RXO (RXO.N) announced plans to buy United Parcel Service (UPS.N) and launch a new unit, Coyote Logistics, for $1.025 billion.

Advance stocks outnumbered decliners 2.25-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange, with 179 new highs and 48 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 49 new highs and 128 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.94 billion shares, below the 11.92 billion average over the past 20 trading days.

European stocks may see some recovery on Tuesday after their rally earlier in the week.

The tech loss has turned into a gain in value, as seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), which is up 0.7%.

This rotation has also become relevant in Asia. For example, AI-related stocks on Japan's Nikkei 225, such as SoftBank Group (9984.T), are retreating from their highs, while money is returning to the battered Toyota Motor (7203.T).

The positive news for investors is the overall gain in Asia-Pacific stock indices. Among the major indices, only tech-heavy Taiwan (.TWII) showed a decline. While the Nikkei (.N225) is up just half a percent, the Topix (.TOPX) is up almost 1.5%.

Geopolitics also requires attention. The mood could change quickly ahead of the first round of snap elections in France this weekend. So far, the far-right's efforts have been effective in calming fears of financial restraint.

As a result, the euro has rebounded sharply to $1.0740 after falling to $1.0671 on Friday.

Also worth watching is the European Commission's evolving relationship with Apple and China. Beijing is calling on the EU to scrap proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports before they come into effect on July 4, and Chinese officials are seeking a compromise in talks in Brussels this week.

Apple needs to change how its App Store works or face large antitrust fines.
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The main thing in the morning: June 28

LNG supplies from the United States to Europe have declined sharply, which could cause a serious blow to the EU economy. Since the beginning of 2024, the volume of liquefied natural gas supplies from the United States has decreased by about a third. Given the current sanctions against Arctic LNG-2 and possible restrictions on other Russian plants, the situation may lead to a shortage of gas.

The first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden took place. CNN organized the presidential candidates' election debate, where the former president and the current president refused to shake hands. The main focus was on the conflict in Ukraine: Biden warned that Moscow's capture of Kiev could provoke World War III, and Trump blamed Biden for the situation.

The Estonian Parliament will not be able to help the government in confiscating frozen Russian assets. The fact is that there is no property in the country that is subject to automatic confiscation in favor of Ukraine. According to the Estonian Foreign Ministry, property worth €37-39 million was blocked in the country.

The IMF forecasts the growth of the US national debt to 140% of GDP by 2032. The organization's report highlights the need to urgently stop the growth of borrowing, as the US budget deficit remains at 2.5% of GDP. This creates increasing problems for the global economy.

NOVATEK continues to build Arctic LNG 2 despite the severe pressure of sanctions. The foundation of the second line and the first structures will begin to be laid on July 23-25. The previously imposed sanctions led to a big shift in the launch schedule of Arctic LNG 2 and the cancellation of the construction of 1 of the 3 lines. Problems with LNG tankers are added to this.
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Investors lift market on Trump, rate cuts

Wall Street ended higher on Monday, extending Friday's gains, as expectations grew for a second term for Donald Trump after a failed assassination attempt raised hopes for looser regulation.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut its key interest rate as early as September also helped boost risk appetite among investors.

While all three major U.S. stock indexes closed well below their intraday highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record close.

Small, economically sensitive stocks (.RUT) and transportation stocks (.DJT) have outperformed the broader market.

The assassination attempt on Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, on Saturday in Pennsylvania appears to have boosted his chances of being elected.

A Trump presidency is expected to usher in more aggressive trade policies, further tax cuts, and deregulation in areas ranging from climate change to cryptocurrencies.

"The main event — the assassination attempt on Donald Trump — hasn't quite hit its mark," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. "GDP forecasts are unchanged, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are unchanged, and corporate earnings are ahead of expectations."

"So the market momentum remains driven by investor optimism," Stovall added.

Investor sentiment was also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle as early as September, with as many as three cuts possible before the end of the year.

"A rate cut in September is virtually guaranteed," said Ross Mayfield, an analyst at Baird Investment Strategy in Louisville, Kentucky. "We're in the same position we were seven months ago, which is the promise of a Fed rate cut without the risk of a recession. But there's still a lot riding on the Fed's actions."

Speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession, with recent data showing progress in bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 210.82 points, or 0.53%, to 40,211.72. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 15.87 points, or 0.28%, to 5,631.22, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 74.12 points, or 0.40%, to 18,472.57.

Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, energy stocks (.SPNY) posted the biggest percentage gains, while utilities (.SPLRCU) lagged.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) more than doubled its second-quarter profit, beating analysts' expectations on solid performance in debt insurance and fixed-income trading. The brokerage's shares rose 2.6%.

Macy's Inc (MN) shares fell 11.7% after the department store ended buyout talks with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital.

The prospect of a second term for Donald Trump sent shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) soaring 31.4%.

Cryptocurrency stocks also saw significant gains, with Coinbase Global (COIN.O), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA.O) and Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) all rising between 11.4% and 18.3%.

Other stocks that would likely benefit from a possible second Trump term also saw gains, with gun maker Smith & Wesson (SWBI.O) and correctional facility operator GEO Group (GEO.N) up 11.4% and 9.3%, respectively.

Meanwhile, solar energy stocks fell as the prospect of a Trump election dampened expectations for U.S. renewable energy subsidies. Sunrun (RUN.O) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDGO.O) fell 9.0% and 15.4%, respectively.

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks also fell on concerns about tighter trade restrictions under the new Trump administration. The iShares China Largecap ETF fell 2.2%.

On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers 1.35-to-1; on the Nasdaq, gainers outnumbered losers 1.50-to-1.

The S&P 500 posted 65 new 52-week highs and four new lows.

The Nasdaq Composite Index posted 203 new highs and 33 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.07 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 11.59 billion shares.

Long-term U.S. bond yields rose on speculation that Trump's policies will lead to higher government debt and inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency stocks rose along with Bitcoin as Trump casts himself as a cryptocurrency advocate.

Investors expect a Trump victory to lead to further tax cuts and regulatory easing. The energy-heavy S&P 500 (.SPNY) gained 1.6%.

Traders are also betting on a second and possibly third rate cut by December.

The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.18 points, or 0.02%, to 828.73, while the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) fell 1.02%.

Bad news from British luxury giant Burberry, with a CEO replacement and dividend suspension, and a 14.3% revenue decline at Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group, raised questions about consumer confidence.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.04% at 104.25, while the euro was down 0.01% at $1.0893. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.02% at 158.04.

The dollar fell to 157.15 during Powell's speech, its lowest since June 17, before recovering.

Bitcoin was up slightly after earlier hitting a three-week high of $63,838.86.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 4.229%, while the yield on two-year Treasuries fell half a basis point to 4.4554%.

Oil prices were slightly lower as concerns about demand in China, the world's largest importer, offset support from OPEC+ supply cuts and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. crude was down 30 cents at $81.91 a barrel, while Brent crude was down 18 cents at $84.85 a barrel.
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XAU/USD. Review and analysis

Today, the price of gold continues its decline.

The US dollar, recovering confidently from the previous day's four-month low and slowly rising, has become the main factor dragging the commodity down for the third consecutive day.

In addition, some profit-taking, especially after the recent rise of more than 6.5% since the beginning of the current month, further contributes to the decline. However, the potential for further decline is limited. Investors are likely convinced that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs in September, with the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. This keeps the yield on US Treasury bonds defensive and limits the appreciation of the US dollar.

However, the tendency to avoid risk amid current market conditions could support gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and demand from central banks should help limit significant declines in the price of non-yielding yellow metal.

From a technical perspective, any further decline will find decent support around $2413-2412, just before the round level of $2400. This is followed by a horizontal breakthrough point at $2390-2388, triggering technical selling in case of a decisive break. The precious metal will then accelerate its decline to test the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently near the $2358-2357 area. A sustained decline below this level will expose the 100-day SMA near the $2311 zone, with intermediate support around $2330.

On the other hand, the Asian session high of around $2445 now serves as an immediate obstacle, above which the yellow metal may rise to $2469-2470 – the high of the American session. Given that the oscillators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, bulls may attempt to retest the historical high around $2483-2484 and reach the psychological mark of $2500.
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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2024

Without any economic or political news, the market has literally come to a standstill. Today's situation is somewhat similar, as aside from the secondary housing market data, the economic calendar is almost empty. Moreover, housing reports have a feeble impact. However, according to multiple statements, US President Joe Biden may address the nation today. He is expected to officiallyendorse Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate. It seems that the incumbent vice president will be the one to challenge Donald Trump. The key point here is that the Democratic Party has quickly settled on its candidate, which significantly reduces political risks. This could potentially support the dollar.

The EUR/USD pair has stalled just below the 1.0900 level, while the corrective cycle from the lower range of the psychological level of 1.0950/1.1000 remains intact.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area, indicating an increase in the volume of short positions on the euro.

As for the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the lines are intertwined, meaning that the upward cycle is slowing down.

Outlook
To support the bearish bias, the quote must settle below the 1.0860 level. In this scenario, the euro could move towards the 1.0800 level. The bullish scenario will come into play if the price returns above the 1.0900 level.

Complex indicator analysis suggests a correction in the short-term and intraday time frames.
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US Election: How Uncertainty Impacted Markets and Trillions of Dollars Escaped from Stocks

"Markets have a strong aversion to uncertainty, and with the polls close to 50-50, it's as uncertain as it gets," said Ross Yarrow, managing director of U.S. equities at investment bank Baird.

Wall Street's S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 2.3% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day loss since December 2022, as Big Tech, which accounts for a significant portion of U.S. and global indexes, fell. The decline continued Thursday morning, spreading to European markets.

Investors, wary of further selling, have turned to small-cap stocks, UK assets and gold as possible safe havens.

Of particular concern to global markets is the possibility that competition for votes on big spending plans could lead to potential turmoil in the US debt market, weighing on global stocks and bonds whose value depends on long-term Treasury yields.

The 30-year US Treasury yield rose above the two-year yield last week as big investors began to shy away from long-term US credit risk as the budget deficit widened to nearly $2 trillion.

Emerging market stocks and bonds have come under pressure from President Trump's proposed tariff hikes, said Adam Norris, a multi-manager at Columbia Threadneedle. Higher tariffs are having a negative impact on the economies and currencies of exporting countries.

Stock market volatility (.VIX) has started to rise from its lows as traders shift between stock sectors based on the changing election odds.

Tech stocks from the U.S. to Amsterdam have felt the pressure after Trump proposed earlier this month to cut U.S. support for Taiwan, a key link in the chip supply chain.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index of U.S. small-caps (.RUT) has risen on expectations that Trump's growth policies will favor domestically focused companies over global tech giants.

The rotation could end, however, if tech or consumer stocks heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains rise as Trump falls in the polls.

Benjamin Mehlman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, expressed caution on European exporters due to potential tariff risks if Trump wins, preferring to invest in smaller, less global European companies.

Now on to global financial news.

More than $3 trillion has been pulled out of global equities in recent days.

Stock markets plunged into a multi-trillion-dollar slump on Thursday as a slide in global tech stocks sent investors seeking refuge in traditionally safe havens like bonds, the yen and the Swiss franc.

Europe's biggest bourses opened the day down more than 1% as traders in Europe and Asia reacted to the Nasdaq's worst day since 2022 (.IXIC) on Wednesday following disappointing earnings reports from giants Alphabet and Tesla.

Chinese stocks, iron ore and oil prices also extended their losses after a surprise move by China's central bank to cut long-term interest rates added to concerns about the world's second-largest economy.

The sell-off in stocks has increased bets on interest rate cuts around the world, with futures pointing to a 100% chance of Federal Reserve easing in September. A sharp rise in market volatility (.VIX) added pressure on carry trades, sending the U.S. dollar down 0.7% to 152.78 yen on Thursday.

MSCI's broadest index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 1%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 3.3%, partly due to an 11% plunge in Nissan Motor (7201.T) after the company reported a 99% drop in quarterly profit.

Taiwan (.TWII) markets remained closed for a second day due to a typhoon.

Chinese blue-chip stocks (.CSI300) fell 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) also fell 0.9%, hitting a five-month low.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) fell 1.7%, unhelped by Beijing's latest round of economic easing.

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq (.IXIC) lost nearly 4% as weak earnings results from Alphabet and Tesla dented investor confidence in the already lofty valuations of Big Tech stocks.

The decline added to recent market volatility, with the Wall Street Fear Index (.VIX) hitting a three-month high. Investors sought safety in cash and highly liquid short-term debt as two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest in nearly six months on Wednesday.

"There are a lot of factors weighing on equity markets right now," said Jeff Yu, senior currency and macro strategist at BNY Mellon in London.

He also pointed to declining auto sales in the US, Europe and Japan, as well as recent interest rate moves in China, as clear signs of weakening global consumer demand.

Another big factor was the strengthening of the yen, which rose more than 1% to its highest in 2 1/2 months, ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting next week to discuss whether to raise interest rates.

The Swiss franc also strengthened 0.5% to 0.88 per dollar, adding 0.7% overnight.

Shorter-term bonds extended gains, helped by comments from former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley that the central bank should cut rates, preferably at its policy meeting next week.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes fell another 3 basis points to 4.3894%, after falling 4 basis points on Wednesday. Ten-year Treasury yields also fell 2 basis points to 4.2622% on Thursday.

In commodities, iron ore prices fell nearly 1% on lingering concerns about China's economy. Copper futures fell 1.2%, while oil prices remained near six-week lows.

Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to just over $81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell 0.5% to $77.23 a barrel. Gold prices fell 1% to $2,373.62 an ounce.
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