EUR/USD. "Red hue" of US inflation, dovish rhetoric from Williams, and the high of the year

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair overcame the resistance level of 1.1030, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The price has updated the annual high (1.1034), which was set in early February. The pair is moving towards the 1.11th figure as a result of the previous momentum, when the dollar fell across the market on Wednesday, reacting to the Consumer Price Index. Another inflation report was published in the US, which provided more support to the bulls. This is the Producer Price Index, which came out in the "red", reflecting the slowdown of US inflation.

The "red hue" of the PPI

So, the PPI disappointed the dollar bulls again. The index came out at 2.7% in annual terms, versus an estimate of a 3.0% decline. This is the weakest growth rate since January 2021. The indicator has been consistently declining for nine straight months. The core PPI, excluding food and energy prices, also fell significantly, reaching 3.4% (the weakest growth rate since March 2021). This component of the report has been declining since April last year.

It is noteworthy that, following the two inflation reports, the probability of a rate hike at the May meeting has only increased, despite the significant drop in the CPI and PPI. According to data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there's a 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in May. This is because core inflation has accelerated. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose to 5.6% in annual terms. Meanwhile, the core index had been consistently declining for the last five months. This fact has led to the assumption that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the rate once again, possibly at the next meeting. As a reminder, the Fed's updated median forecast also assumes one more rate hike in 2023.

But all these hawkish circumstances, as they say, light up but do not fuel the dollar bulls. Despite the growth of hawkish expectations, the dollar continues to plunge across the market.

Is the Fed ready to take a step back?

In my opinion, this situation is related to the growing dovish expectations in the long term. Rumors that the Fed will lower the rate closer to the end of the current year are being circulated more and more recently. And after the recent statement by the New York Fed Chief John Williams (who has a permanent voting right in the Committee and is considered one of the most influential Fed officials), these rumors have gained practical significance.

In an interview with Reuters, Williams said that if inflation decreases, then "the Federal Reserve will have to lower rates." At the same time, he acknowledged that the central bank is likely to raise the rate again in May, as the Bank "needs to see a decrease in core inflation." However, the market focused its attention on the dovish aspects of his speech. In fact, Williams admitted the realization of such a scenario within the current year.

I would like to remind you that after the March meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also did not deny such a development of events. He diplomatically noted that this scenario "is not the base case."

Conclusions

The US dollar index continues to plunge, reacting to the decline in inflation indicators. Following the CPI, the PPI also came out in the red. Prior to this, the core PCE index also demonstrated a downtrend.

Inflation in the US is slowing down, and this is putting pressure on the greenback, even despite a slight acceleration in the core CPI index. Overall, in my opinion, the market has come to several conclusions: 1) in May, the Fed will likely go for another quarter point rate hike ; 2) this will be the last in this cycle of monetary tightening; 3) if the current pace of declining inflation indicators persists, the Fed will, in a few months, update the discussion on lowering the rate (Williams brought this up the other day, admitting the realization of a dovish scenario).

All these conclusions are on the side of the EUR/USD bulls.

The technical picture for the pair shows similar signals. On all higher charts (from H4 and above), the pair is either at the top or between the middle and top lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. In addition, on the daily chart, the Ichimoku indicator has formed one of its strongest bullish signals - the "Parade of Lines". Therefore, it would be wise to use any corrective pullbacks to open long positions – with the first, and for now, the main price target of 1.1100.

Pension funds and hedge funds opt for gold

Despite hopes for lower inflation, the world's pension funds are still not taking risks. They are increasing their interest in gold, expanding their positions. According to the latest risk management report by Ortec Finance, published on Thursday, the company's analysts stated that they are 90% confident in a decline in inflation. Worldwide, more than half of the managers of government pension funds with a total of over $3 trillion in assets under management assume that inflation will be 3.3% or even lower this year. This assumption is already much lower than last year's survey, which predicted inflation at around 6.4%. The survey also showed that only 10% of global asset managers believe inflation will exceed 6%.

A week after the U.S. Department of Labor published data on the Consumer Price Index, which grew less than expected over the last 12 months to 5%, the survey results appeared. However, despite the optimism of fund managers that inflation will continue to decline, they are still not taking risks, increasing their positions in gold and other commodities.

According to the study, about 70% of the surveyed fund managers said their plans include increasing their participation in commodities. Specifically, 40% decided to increase their investments in gold; 42% said they increased their bond holdings.

Analysts believe that hedge funds' interest in gold should continue to support the precious metal and push prices to historical highs. Nevertheless, analysts noted that their bullish positions in gold are currently low compared to last year.

According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, asset managers have long positions in gold of 104,000 contracts, about 27% of the peak in 2022 when prices exceeded $2,000 an ounce. Also, holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products show there are fewer investors compared to the previous period. In March, gold-backed ETFs received a net inflow for the first time in 10 months.

Now, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), contains 926.57 tons of gold. This is less than in March 2022, when it contained 1,100 tons.

Slowing global inflation called into question. RBA raises rates, possible revision of RBNZ rate forecast. Review of USD, NZD, AUD

The US Manufacturing ISM report showed an increase in positivity, with the index rising from 46.3 to 47.1. However, at the same time as the sector's recovery, we should take note that a number of sub-indices favor higher inflation – prices jumped from 49.2 to 53.2, employment increased by 3.3 points, to 50.2, and new orders are still in contraction territory.

After a pause, which optimists declared the end of the banking crisis, another bank went bankrupt - First Republic Bank. After the purchase of FRB, JPMorgan shares rose more than 2%, as JPMorgan acquired $30 billion in assets, while losses were shared with FDIC, i.e., the state. The rescue of another bank has led to the fact that FDIC has virtually exhausted all reserves, a number of small regional banks are in line for rescue, and as the crisis escalates, it will be increasingly difficult.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned Congress that, by optimistic estimates, the government will not be able to fulfill its financial obligations by June 1 if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then. Republicans have already prepared a bill providing for a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, with a simultaneous reduction in spending of more than $4.5 trillion.

Markets will trade with low volatility until the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting is announced. The main intrigue lies in whether the Fed will maintain the prospect of another rate hike, as there are clear signs that inflation is ready to resume growth after a pause. Q1 PCE data clearly confirms this.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen again, as have commodity currencies, as the trend towards a slowdown in global inflation is called into question.

NZDUSD

The focus is on the Q1 labor market report overnight on Wednesday, with expectations moderately positive. In February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecasted an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% in Q1 to 4.8% by the end of the year, but at the same time, a sharp increase in wages. The RBNZ expects annual growth from 4.3% at the end of 2022 to 4.9% in Q2, which will strengthen inflation expectations.

There is also another unexpected news - from June 1, the RBNZ plans to ease lending conditions. Such a decision may require a higher rate to curb inflation growth, but so far, the market has not reacted, expectations for the RBNZ's May meeting remain stable, the bank will raise the rate by 0.25%, this outcome is already priced in and will not have a significant impact on the Kiwi rate.

The net long position in NZD decreased by $43 million for the reporting week to -$200 million, with a slight bearish bias. The calculated price goes down, signaling a strengthening of bearish sentiment.

NZDUSD did not reach the support level of 0.6079, but the upward retracement is unlikely to be strong. The nearest resistance is at 0.6240/50, where we expect the growth to end and the downward reversal to follow. The next support is the mid-channel area, coinciding with the local low of 0.6105, followed by 0.6020.

AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets considerably, not only did it raise the rate by a quarter point to 3.85%, but it also significantly changed the tone of the accompanying statement compared to that of April's. The statement reiterates the thesis that "some further tightening of monetary policy may be required," but emphasizes that the RBA wants to achieve this in "a reasonable timeframe," this thesis is repeated twice, unlike the previous forecast of inflation normalization in 2025. It paid more attention to wage growth.

The results of the RBA meeting are undoubtedly a bullish factor for the Aussie. Futures reacted with an increase in the probability of another 25 bps hike, and the Australian dollar became the leader in daily growth, pulling the NZD along with it.

Apparently, the RBA sees a threat of higher inflation or at least a more prolonged one, and the threat is real.

The net short position in AUD decreased by $234 million to -$2.615 billion, with bearish positioning. The calculated price lost momentum and shows signs of turning south, the forecast is neutral.

AUDUSD continues to trade in a horizontal channel, the decline expected a week ago turned out to be slightly deeper, but the subsequent bullish momentum on the background of the unexpected RBA decision quickly lost momentum. We suppose that till the end of the Fed meeting, trading will be in a narrow range, and further direction will be chosen based on the presence or absence of hawkish wording in the final statement of the Fed. By the end of the week, I expect the pair to fall to the border of the range at 0.6565.

Hot forecast for EURUSD on 12/05/2023

Yesterday, everything revolved exclusively around the Bank of England meeting. And its results were the reason why the euro got significantly weaker. More precisely, the pound was falling, and through the dollar index, it pulled other currencies with it. And it's not so much about the BoE hiking interest rates by 25 bps, but rather about the following comments. Despite another increase in inflation, the British central bank signaled that it may pause rate hikes. It turns out that the BoE is not so much engaged in the fight against rising consumer prices, but rather follows in the wake of the larger central banks. Even though this is not in line with the emerging economic situation in the UK itself. Which has spooked investors.

So the euro's fall was not only impressive, but it also had nothing to do with the economic dynamics directly in the eurozone itself. Moreover, the single currency has gone beyond the range in which it has been for almost a whole month. Based on this, we can assume that today we will see a kind of rebound, and a return to the usual limits from 1.0950 to 1.1050.

During an intensive downward movement, the EUR/USD pair reached the 1.0900 level, which points to a change in the volume of short positions. As a result, a slowdown-pullback occurred relative to this level.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI indicator is moving in the lower area of 30/50, which corresponds to the downward cycle, as well as the touch of the 1.0900 level.

On the daily chart, two out of three of the Alligator's MAs intertwined, which could be an initial sign of a slowdown in the medium-term trend. On the 4-hour chart, it reflects a bear cycle, which corresponds to the current movement.

Outlook

In this situation, traders are considering an option of forming a pullback, which will eventually return the euro to its previous price ranges. However, if the pullback turns out to be false and the quote remains below the 1.0900 level in the daily period, then in this case, a technical signal about forming a full-scale correction through an uptrend may emerge.

The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term points to a pullback. In the intraday period, the bearish sentiment is still in force.

Gold stumbles due to Fed rate hike expectations

Gold exhibited mixed performance this week, rising strongly and then pulling back from recent peaks. Analysts believe that gold's rally is currently on hiatus, and that the precious metal is ready to move in a different direction. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajector is contributing to gold's slowed momentum.

At the start of the week, gold marginally increased, but gave up part of its gains and slipped by 0.80%. This was due to ambiguous macroeconomic data from the US, which nonetheless showed signs of resilience. US retail sales were also notably robust. According to current data, industrial production in America bounced back in April, while the manufacturing sector is facing difficulties.

Retail sales excluding autos went up by 0.4% m/m, which matched forecasts. Year-over-year, sales rose by 1.6%, below last month's 2.4%. Experts believe it indicates that the US economy is slowing down.

US industrial production grew by 0.5% m/m in April. Year-on-year, it rose to 0.2% from 0.1% in the previous months. According to the latest data, manufacturing production increased by 1% m/m. Furthermore, an uptick in automobile production was observed, bolstering the US dollar and dampening gold's upside prospects.

Macroeconomic factors and higher US government bond yields have weighted down on the precious metal. Consequently, gold has slightly declined. Its downward movement has accelerated by week's end. The precious metal has now bounced downwards from the key level of $2,000 per ounce. On Thursday morning, 18 May, XAU/USD was trading at $1,977, trying to recoup losses, but with limited success.

As the precious metal slides down, investors are now focused on new US data, which is set to be published later today. The next batch of data will help investors assess the state of the US economy and predict the Fed's next interest rate move. In addition, the US Department of Labor will release the initial unemployment claims report. Preliminary forecasts indicate that jobless claims fell by 10,000 in the first week of May after rising by 22,000 earlier, reaching its highest level since October 2021.

Uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling is another important factor for gold. Continuing discussions on the issue has yet to find a solution. Earlier, US President Joe Biden met with Congress representatives to address the issue. Analysts estimate the current situation has pushed up the precious metal, which benefits from anxiety in the market. Gold is universally considered to be a traditional safe-haven asset that can protect the holder's capital.

Higher industrial production in the US has boosted the market. As a result, traders and investors are pricing in the possibility of another interest rate hike in mid-June. Analysts suggest that the change in market expectations has triggered another dollar movement, weighing down on gold.

Gold's noticeable decline has been attributed not only to the mixed US macroeconomic data, but also to the Federal Reserve's current decisions on interest rates. As a result, the precious metal is approaching its April lows. Analysts believe that due to increased expectations of another key rate hike, the gold correction will continue.

At the moment, Fed representatives maintain a hawkish stance, believing that this approach would make it easier to bring inflation under control and return it to the target of 2% in the future. This also affects possible upcoming rate moves. According to Fed officials, the rate has not yet reached a level that would allow a rollback of policy tightening.

In this situation, the precious metal is stalling, but some analysts are confident that it could increase. Currency strategists at Credit Suisse believe that gold will eventually reach new highs and rise above the $2,070-$2,075 levels achieved in 2020 and 2022.

According to Credit Suisse, the gold market will soar to new highs following the completion of the current range phase, facilitated by a decrease in real yields in the US. In this situation, exceeding $2,075 would indicate a bullish breakout, opening the way to a new target range of $2,330-$2,360.

Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the 50-day moving average. Experts say that stabilizing above this level solidified the gold rally at the end of 2022 and confirmed it in March 2023. At the same time, the 61.8% retracement level, which moved from March lows to early May highs, is located at $1,977 per ounce.

Experts estimate that gold should avoid a sharp drop below $1,980. Such a scenario would be an important signal of market sentiment change, pushing gold down to a critical level of $1,950 per ounce.

If gold stabilizes near current levels, then the next growth impulse will help it refresh historical highs. In this situation, the technical target for gold bulls will be $2,250, which was reached during the last two-month rally. The long-term target will be the ambitious level of $2,640, which may be reached within 12 months.

Experts believe the correction of the precious metal will continue if the likelihood of another Fed rate hike increases in June. The regulator's next meeting is scheduled for June 13-14. Most analysts (72%) expect the key rate to remain at 5%-5.25%, while some anticipate another increase by 25 basis points.

EUR/USD. Week Preview. Buckle up, price turbulence expected

The EUR/USD pair failed to consolidate within the 7th figure by the end of the past week: at the end of Friday, EUR/USD bulls organized a small but swift counter-attack, which led the price to rise to the level of 1.0804. The corrective pullback was due to a weakening of the US currency, which came under pressure against the backdrop of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious rhetoric.

Powell suggested that the May rate hike could be the last in the current monetary tightening cycle. This unexpected plot twist surprised dollar bulls, afterwards the greenback fell across the market. Under other circumstances, this fundamental factor would have had a strong impact on the dollar for a quite long time. But under current conditions, Powell's dovish comments may take a back seat. The focus is on the political confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, as its failure to reach an agreement could lead to a default on the US national debt.

There is no doubt that this topic will be the "number 1 issue" for all dollar pairs. All other fundamental factors will take a back seat - including Powell.

Biden raises the stakes

Exactly one week ago - May 14 - the President of the United States announced that negotiations with Congress on raising the debt limit are "progressing," and more about their progress will be known literally "in the next two days". At the same time, he emphasized that he is optimistic about the prospects of reaching a compromise. In anticipation of the next round of negotiations, assistants to the US president and the Speaker of the lower house of Congress, Kevin McCarthy, began to form a "road map" to curb federal spending in order to resume negotiations on raising the debt limit.

The negotiations did take place - but ended in failure. The parties just "agreed to agree", but no more. Now the situation is up in the air. Another round of negotiations should take place after Biden completes his visit to Japan, where the G7 summit is being held. At the same time, he canceled his planned visit to Australia, which speaks volumes on the seriousness of the situation.

Important point: if the US president was initially optimistic about the negotiation process, today he has changed the tone of his rhetoric. For example, he stated that declaring a default is "personally out of the question" for him, but at the same time, he cannot guarantee that Republicans will not push the country into default by "doing something outrageous" (originally by Reuters agency - "Biden said he still believed he could reach a deal with Republicans, but could not guarantee that Republicans would not force a default by "doing something outrageous").

In this context, Biden called on Congress to work on the issue of raising the debt limit. He also emphasized that he would not agree to a bipartisan debt ceiling deal "exclusively on the terms of the Republicans". The US president expressed readiness to cut spending, but stated that he does not intend to fulfill all the demands of Republican congressmen.

The terrifying word: "default"

Judging by the escalation of the situation, a default no longer seems unthinkable. One can assume that Biden has decided to raise the stakes with his rhetoric before decisive negotiations, shifting the responsibility for possible default consequences onto the Republican party. However, in the context of forex traders' reaction, it doesn't really matter - whether it's a bluff or a real threat. Such statements from the US president are capable of significantly shaking the markets. Considering that the aforementioned comments were made during the weekend, dollar pair traders should prepare for a significant gap (in the case of the EUR/USD pair - a downward gap).

Overall, the upcoming week is packed with events. For example, on Monday, three representatives of the Federal Reserve (Bullard, Barkin, Bostic) will speak; on Tuesday, PMI indices will be published in Europe, and data on the volume of new home sales will be released in the US; on Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed's May meeting will be published along with a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde; on Thursday, data on the volume of pending home sales will be disclosed in America; and finally, on Friday, the most important inflation indicator - the core personal consumption expenditures index - will be published in the US.

But all these reports, as well as the speeches of Fed and ECB representatives, will remain in the shadow of the key topic of the upcoming week. The fate of the US national debt is the number 1 issue for dollar pair traders, so everyone will focus on its corresponding negotiations. Especially since there is not much time left until the "X hour": as the US Treasury previously warned, on June 1, the country's government may declare a debt default if Congress cannot raise the debt limit.

Conclusions

Under such fundamental circumstances, it is extremely difficult to predict the possible trajectory of EUR/USD. We can only assume that at the start of the new trading week, risk-off sentiments in the markets will rise again, and this fact will provide significant support to the dollar. In this case, the pair will return to the area of the 7th figure with a target at 1.0700. But everything will depend on the negotiation between Republicans and Democrats. If they do find common ground and announce an increase in the debt limit, the spring will unwind in the opposite direction - against the dollar (especially in light of Powell's recent statements). If the negotiation saga drags on until next weekend, the dollar will continue to gain momentum, acting as a beneficiary of panic sentiments.

Considering the previous statements of Republicans, Democrats, and Biden himself, the negotiations will be very challenging - therefore, dollar pairs may once again find themselves in the area of price turbulence.

Gold's rally pauses, with new surge on horizon

Gold's upward momentum has paused after this week's mixed performance. However, analysts remain optimistic and believe that gold will surge to new highs. Despite the current setback, unfavorable external factors continue to drive capital inflows into gold, bolstering its future ascent.

This week, gold had a mixed performance, regaining ground after a two-day decline.The anticipation of the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes fueled the precious metal's growth. On May 24, June futures on the New York Comex exchange edged up by 0.27% to reach $1,979 per ounce.

The Fed meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers believe further interest rate hikes are unwarranted. Additionally, the FOMC economic outlook projected the economic climate will worsen, as well as tighter lending conditions. Although officials foresee a moderate recession, they expressed concern over persistently high inflation, which currently is well above the 2% target. If inflation's decline remains sluggish, additional monetary policy tightening may be necessary.

These developments, combined with a stronger US dollar, sent gold into a retreat. On the evening of May 24, June futures on the New York Comex exchange slid by 0.45% to settle at $1,965 per ounce.

Gold currently faces considerable pressure from the surging USD, which has created headwinds for the precious metal. This week, gold stepped back from its key multi-year highs of $2,063-$2,075. However, Credit Suisse analysts believe that gold will eventually break through to new record highs.

Several factors, including concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling, have hindered gold's ascent for the time being. It has temporarily retreated from its key resistance level of $2,063-$2,075, the highs it hit in 2020 and 2022. Nonetheless, this appears to be a temporary setback. According to Credit Suisse, the next support level for gold stands at $1,949. A breakout below this level could push XAU/USD down to $1892 per ounce.

However, after this correction, analysts at the bank anticipate a resurgence in gold prices, driven by declining real yields in the United States. This drop is expected to intensify by the end of 2023. In a bullish scenario, gold could rally to $2,075, signifying a breakthrough for the precious metal. This would open the way towards new highs, particularly the range between $2,330 and $2,360, as highlighted by Credit Suisse.

Currently, gold's rally has taken a breather, settling at modest levels. On May 25, the price of gold stood at $1,963, ready to surge higher. The recent decline can be attributed to the US dollar's advance. The US currency gained strength against other major currenices ahead of the release of US economic data.

Investors are closely monitoring the US GDP data, which are set to release on Thursday, May 25th. Early forecasts suggest that the US economy has grown by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023, in line with an earlier outlook by the US Commerce Department.

The greenback upsurge has also influenced the precious metal significantly. It is worth noting that gold is sensitive to signals emanating from the Federal Reserve. The current monetary policies of the regulator, coupled with the performance of USD, have a tangible impact on the precious metal's price. Hawkish signals from the Fed lend support to the dollar, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. Conversely, dovish comments from FOMC policymakers weigh down on the American currency, driving gold higher.

Currency strategists at Commerzbank remain convinced that gold will move higher, as mounting default risks in the US make the precious metal more attractive for investors. In the event of a default, gold would come to the forefront, emerging as the most popular safe-haven asset. The bank underscores that the Federal Reserve will have ample opportunities to reduce interest rates, offering gold a competitive edge over other safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

UBS and Bank of America are particularly bullish on gold, expecting it to rise up to $2,200 per ounce. UBS currency strategists believe that gold will hit that level by March 2024, whereas analysts at Bank of America expects that level to be reached by the end of 2023. A key driver behind gold's assured growth lies in its sustained high demand from central banks.

Experts argue that the rise in gold prices requires the dollar to slide down gradually. UBS forecasts suggest that over the next 6-12 months, the greenback will experience a modest decline as the Federal Reserve prepares to conclude its monetary tightening cycle. This view is shared by the Bank of America, which expects the Fed's rate hike cycle to end, as well as substantial gold purchases by central banks.

Another factor favoring a gold rally is the mounting risk of a recession in the United States. Further key interest rate hikes and a deteriorating economic situation in the world's leading economy are making an economic downturn in the US more likely.

Positive news contributes to an increase in risk demand, and the dollar braces to strengthen. USD, EUR, GBP overview.

The main news of the weekend was the agreement on the US debt limit, which may serve as a basis for increased risk demand at the beginning of the week. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on Wednesday.

It was reported that the debt ceiling will be approved until the 2024 presidential elections. Non-defense spending will remain at current levels in 2024 and will increase by only 1% in 2025. This is a compromise between Republican demands for sharp spending cuts and Democratic intentions to raise taxes.

The aggregate short position in the US dollar decreased by 3.3 billion to -12.1 billion during the reporting week. Overall, sentiment towards the dollar remains negative, but the trend may have changed.

Long positions on gold have noticeably decreased by 4 billion to -31.7 billion, which is also a factor in favor of the US dollar.

The core PCE deflator increased by 0.4% MoM, which is slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Despite the faster-than-expected price growth, real consumer spending rose by 0.5% MoM, surpassing the expected 0.3%. The rise in the PCE deflator shows that the fight against inflation is far from over, with the 3-month annualized core PCE deflator at 4.3%, the same amount as a year ago in April 2022.

The combination of higher spending and faster price growth is expected to lead to the Federal Reserve raising rates in June. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, commenting on the released data, stated that "the data that came out this morning suggests that we still have work to do."

The CME futures market estimates a 63% probability of a Fed rate hike in June, compared to 18% the previous week, making the strengthening of the dollar in the changed conditions more than likely.

Monday is a banking holiday in the US, so by the end of the day, volatility will decrease, and we do not expect strong movements.

EUR/USD

The European Central Bank maintains a firm stance on continuing rate hikes as part of its fight against inflation. Preliminary inflation data for the eurozone will be published on June 1st, and the forecast suggests a slowdown in core inflation from 5.6% to 5.5%. If the data aligns with expectations, it will lower the ECB rate forecasts and put more pressure on the euro.

The net long position on the euro decreased by 2.013 billion to 23.389 billion during the reporting week, marking the first significant decline in the past 10 weeks. The calculated price is moving further south, indicating a high probability of further euro weakening.

EUR/USD has declined to 1.0730, where support has held firm, but we expect another attempt to test its strength, which will likely be more successful. Within a short-term correction, the euro may rise to resistance at 1.0735 or 1.0830, but the upward movement is likely to be short-lived and followed by another downward wave. Our long-term target is seen in the support zone of 1.0480/0520.

GBP/USD

The decline in UK inflation is once again being called into question. The core Consumer Price Index rose from 6.2% YoY to 6.8% in April, with yields sharply increasing. The retail sales report for April, published on Friday, showed that the slowdown in consumer demand remains more of a goal than reality itself.

Retail sales excluding fuel increased by 0.8% MoM, significantly higher than the forecast of 0.3%. If it weren't for the sharp decline in energy demand, both the monthly and annual retail growth would have been noticeably higher than expected.

Monday is a banking holiday in the UK, and there are no macro data this week that could influence Bank of England rate forecasts. Therefore, the pound will be traded more in consideration of global rather than domestic factors. We do not expect high volatility or significant movements.

The net long position on the pound slightly decreased by 84 million to 899 million during the reporting week. The bullish bias is small, and the positioning is more neutral than bullish. The calculated price is below the long-term average and is downward-oriented.

The pound has moved towards the support zone at 1.2340/50, but the decline has slowed down at this level. We expect the pound to fall, with the nearest targets being the technical levels at 1.2240 and 1.2134. There is currently insufficient basis for reviving growth.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2023

It seems that the market is simply tired of the excessive overbought condition of the dollar, and investors initiated a sell-off, even despite fairly good US data. The number of initial unemployment claims increased by 28,000, which is quite significant. However, the number of continued claims fell by 37,000. And they have much greater significance than initial claims. And logically, the dollar should have been rising. But the dollar's overbought condition has persisted for quite some time. In fact, it's still overbought. Yesterday's growth only managed to relieve a bit of the tension. But if the corrective movement started without any reason, it is likely to persist today.

The EUR/USD is ending the trading week with a sharp rise, during which the local June high was updated. The price approached the level of 1.0800, which acts as resistance for buyers.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI almost reached the overbought territory during the overnight sharp rise, but it did not cross the signal level. Take note that the indicator's convergence with the overbought territory coincides with the price approaching the resistance level of 1.0800. Thus, the combination of technical signals may indicate a decline in the volume of long positions on the euro.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs have changed direction and it currently points to growth.

Outlook

The decline in the volume of long positions on the euro has led to a slowdown in the upward cycle, where the 1.0800 level plays a special role in the distribution of trading forces. In this case, in order to continue the upward movement, the price needs to stay above the control level, at least in the four-hour period. Otherwise, a full-scale price rebound may occur.

The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.

USD gains momentum following FOMC meeting

The US dollar has rallied robustly following the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC meeting, outpacing its European counterpart. USD found its wings, soaring on the back of the FOMC meeting outcomes which signaled another rate hike in 2023.

Following the June FOMC meeting, the committee maintained the federal funds rate within the range of 5.00%-5.25%, after a series of ten consecutive increases, meeting market expectations. The regulator hasn't ruled out another rate hike before the end of this year.

At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled an updated forecast, indicating that FOMC members anticipate an additional 0.50% increase in the federal funds rate in 2023.

According to experts, the Fed has now implemented the most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s. This measure was necessary to combat inflation, which has decreased from its peak (9.1%) in June 2022 to the current 4%.

In the light of these developments, US government bond yields showed steady growth, bolstering the greenback. Consequently, the US dollar significantly appreciated against other major currencies, especially the euro.

Analysts assert that high rates impact the cost of US debt placement. According to the US Treasury Department's estimates, as of the end of April 2023, interest payments on the national debt stood at $460 billion, accounting for 12.5% of the total US budget.

After raising the debt ceiling, US authorities intend to issue new debt obligations that could exceed $1-$1.5 trillion. Therefore, the Fed has paused the rate hikes to avoid increasing the cost of placement and creating additional strain on the budget.

Experts underscore that if the interest rate is raised this year, we can expect a strengthening of the dollar. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair confidently crossed the 1.0800 threshold and moved higher. The euro found balance while the greenback gained momentum for further growth. On Thursday morning, June 15, EUR/USD was trading at 1.0806, striving to reach new highs and establish a foothold at these levels.

Post FOMC meeting, the Fed's chief, Jerome Powell, held a press conference and commented on the monetary policy outlook. He emphasized the Fed's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 5%-5.25%, stating that "rate cuts this year would be imprudent." However, the situation may change at the next meeting which will take place on July 25-26.

The FOMC statement underscored that US inflation remains high, but monetary authorities are aiming to bring it down to the target of 2%. According to the Fed Chairman, getting inflation back to 2% "is a long journey ahead." Meanwhile, the FOMC members remain very vigilant about inflationary risks.

Almost all FOMC members deem it appropriate to continue increasing rates in 2023. Special attention from the regulators is directed towards creating conditions for a "soft landing" of the US economy. The FOMC believes that this is facilitated by a strong US labor market, which is "gradually cooling down."

In addition, the Federal Reserve has published updated economic forecasts, which have been revised since the March meeting. The forecasts for US GDP growth in 2023 were raised, while they were slightly lowered for 2024-2025. As for the inflation forecast for this year, it has also been slightly worsened. However, the improvement in core inflation plans in the US provided a silver lining.

As for the median forecast for the key rate at the end of 2023, the situation is also positive: it was raised by 0.5% to a level of 5.6%. It's worth noting that this forecast anticipates two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each. As for the key rate forecast at the end of 2024, it was improved by 0.3% to the level of 4.6%, and at the end of 2025, also by 0.3% to 3.4%.

According to Jerome Powell's statement, rate increases should occur not abruptly but at a "moderate pace". The Fed chief believes that it will go hand in hand with a decrease in inflation. However, the latter will require US economic growth and "some easing of labor market conditions". Currently, markets are pricing in the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next regulatory meeting scheduled for July 25-26. It is expected that this will once again help the dollar reach new highs.

Pressure on the dollar may intensify. USD, CAD, JPY overview

The highly anticipated speech of Fed Chair Powell in the House of Representatives did not bring any new information. Powell justified the decision not to raise rates in June by saying that the speed of interest-rate increases is "not very important," now and outlined the criteria for sustainable inflation reduction. The dollar had a minimal reaction to Powell's speech, with slight selling pressure that resulted in a shallow correction.

The main cause of high inflation in the United States is considered to be the high level of consumption, as demand does not allow prices to start a sustainable decline. However, adjusting the overall accumulated household wealth for inflation shows that the "excess wealth" created by pandemic stimulus measures has already been eroded.

The decrease in consumption is inevitable, which will lead to a recession by the end of the year. As a result, in order to manage inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will be forced to change its rhetoric to a more dovish stance, which will intensify pressure on the dollar.

The Bank of England held its regular monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and after its unexpected inflation report for May, there are no doubts that the Bank of Canada will raise rates. This increase has already been priced in by the markets and is unlikely to cause a rise in GBP on its own. However, the probability of another rate hike has increased, and if the meeting minutes are sufficiently aggressive, the pound may have grounds for another upward trajectory.

USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar strengthened after the release of the minutes from the Bank of Canada's latest meeting on June 7, as the markets received confirmation that the Bank of Canada is ready to consider further rate hikes and that the June hike was not a one-time action.

It was noted that GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded forecasts (3.1% versus 2.3%), with consumption growth being very strong at 5.8%, not only in the services sector but also in interest rate-sensitive goods. Consumption growth in Canada was stronger than expected, even considering population growth, and business investment and exports were stronger and more widespread than anticipated. There is clearly excess demand in the economy, and the measures implemented so far are not sufficiently restrictive.

The Bank of Canada expected inflation to decrease to 3% in the summer, but an unexpected increase from 4.3% to 4.4% was recorded in April. Trends in core inflation data raised doubts about the strength and longevity of the ongoing disinflation and heightened concerns that inflation could remain significantly above the 2% target.

Therefore, by raising rates on June 7, the Bank of Canada has left the door open for at least one more rate hike. If the inflation data for May (to be released on June 27) do not show a significant decrease, which is quite likely, the chances of another rate hike will increase. Accordingly, the Canadian dollar has grounds for further strengthening.

The net short position on CAD decreased by 106 million during the reporting week, reaching -2.753 billion. The positioning remains confidently bearish, and the estimated price has turned downward again.

A week earlier, we speculated that the USD/CAD could extend its decline if it receives a good reason. Now it has such grounds, and the main scenario is that the pair will continue to fall, with the nearest target being the lower band of the 1.3050/70 channel. A corrective upward retracement may stop near the resistance at 1.3225, followed by a downward reversal and a build-up of the downward momentum.

USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan left its current monetary policy unchanged, but the markets were more interested in whether there would be any explicit hints of a readiness to tighten in the future. From this perspective, the comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda appear ambiguous.

Ueda directly linked the possibility of policy change to two factors. The first factor is the deterioration in the functioning of the money market, which was the reason for expanding the yield curve control in December of last year. The second factor is the trend of inflation growth. There is no reason to intervene in policy due to the first factor, as the market is much more stable after the yield control policy change. The second factor is too uncertain, and there are no clear signs of inflation strengthening. Accordingly, there are no grounds to expect changes from this perspective.

Another factor that could influence the BOJ's stance is the sustained growth in average wages. The position here is that wage growth should not exceed 2% plus productivity growth, but since it is difficult to calculate productivity growth and it is quite volatile, we can conclude that the BOJ does not intend to take unexpected actions even in the case of higher wage growth.

Therefore, the market currently sees low chances of monetary tightening, which suggests that we shouldn't expect the BOJ to take significant actions to strengthen the yen in the near future.

The net short position on JPY slightly adjusted by 114 million during the reporting week, reaching -9.269 billion. The bearish bias is unquestionable. The estimated price is above the long-term average, indicating a bullish trend.

USD/JPY, as expected, continued its rise and stopped a few points away from the technical resistance at 142.50. Considering that the estimated price has slowed down its growth, the chances of a corrective decline have increased, with the nearest support at 140.90. In the event of hawkish hints from the BOJ, a decline towards the middle of the 138.50/90 channel is possible. However, the long-term trend remains confidently bullish, so a deep correction is not expected. The nearest goal is to consolidate above 142.50, followed by a transition into a sideways range, as there are also few grounds for a strong continuation of the upward movement.