AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s  issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation.

Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable.

The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading.

Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016

    The GBP/USD is currently one of the most active currency pairs as of yesterday’s trading session after it plummeted from 1.2500 and settled below 1.2400 points after the most recent news regarding the FBI probe of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. The GBP/USD is expected to further increase its volatility during today’s session up until the following days especially in the light of the upcoming US presidential elections.

    If Clinton manages to win the elections, then could push the USD farther up the positive range and cause the pair to go lower, possibly even crossing below the 1.2300 range. This is highly possible since the sterling pound is not only the most volatile currency as of this writing, but it is currently among the weakest due to complications in the Brexit strategies of the UK government. The ongoing discussions regarding Article 50 might induce more risks and could make the sterling weaker as the discussions progress.

    The UK Manufacturing Data is expected to be released during the European trading session, and this is expected to give traders a clearer notion of how the UK manages its Brexit complications. However, the entirety of the market is now monitoring the results of the US elections, and the USD is expected to become more volatile in the coming hours.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016

The market is keen and waiting for the U.S. presidential election on November 8 afternoon time in USA. The polls shown a tight competition between the candidates. Traders learned from Brexit that it is much safer to be on standby and wait for the results that is why there is less volatility yesterday until this day. This day determines the short term trend for various instruments which is being anticipated by market players.

Yesterday was bearish for the pair as the U.S. Dollars strengthened with traders aspiring Clinton to win. It posited at 1.1050 and 1.1031 physiological levels. Volatility is expected for the day with the bearish trend to continue as the election closes by. The financial market is positioning with Clinton winning as this is what they want which is expected to further strengthen the U.S. Dollars once the results are out. However if the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the election, this is not what is expected that may cause a short-term turmoil in the market.

There are no other major economic news to be released neither from the Euro region nor on the U.S.A today. Everyone is looking forward for the election which is the focus for the past weeks bringing volatility today and tomorrow. It is presumed for other data to come out after the election results are out. It is advisable for traders to be keen in their positions with tight stop losses.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

    The GBP/USD also experienced the effect of the increased market volatility during the US elections, however its reaction was largely different compared to that of the other currency pairs. The GBP/USD pair was steadily increasing amid initial market expectations of a Clinton victory but as it became clear that Trump was winning the presidency, the currency pair suddenly increased in value as opposed to other currency pairs, which either went up and down or experienced a large decline.

    The GBP/USD reached the 1.2550 range but slowly decreased as the market reconciled with a Trump victory and as the USD slowly regained some of its lost value. However, as the other currency pairs steadily dropped in value as the USD rose, the sterling pound instead rose higher and came to rest at a much higher trading range than the USD. This led to speculations that since the US was able to survive the sudden onslaught brought about by a Trump victory, the UK would also be able to hold off on its own as the Brexit progresses. The increase in the GBP was largely due to a minimizing of the initial market overreaction to Brexit, and causing the pair to go up to 1.2670 and ended the previous week with just a little below 1.2600.

    The market is expecting the release of the CPI data and inflation reports from the UK this week, which could give hints regarding the overall status of the UK economy and help in evaluating the further effects of Brexit on the nation’s economy.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016

    The USD experienced a sharp increase against the JPY following a series of investor reactions regarding Donald Trump’s sudden victory in the US elections. The USD/JPY pair closed down last week’s session at 106.615 points after increasing by +3.45% or 3.552 points.

    A large number of investors had a flight to safety on November 8 due to uncertainties brought about by the elections, a move highly similar to the Brexit referendum last June. This resulted to increases in the prices of gold and CHF, but as the market came to terms with a Trump victory this has resulted to a steady increase in the US dollar. The market is now expecting added inflation due to Trump’s policies, which include added fiscal spending and production of trade. This has caused the US Treasury yields to increase, therefore putting upward pressure on the USD and making the USD a more sensible investment as compared to Japan’s government bonds. Analysts are now saying that this could compel the Federal Reserve to increase the frequency of its rate hikes.

    The USD/JPY pair is expected to continue increasing if the US Treasury yields continue to strengthen as well. Major economic releases from Japan include the nation’s Preliminary GDP, which is expected to clock in at 0.2%, which is the same as the previous GDP report. For the US, expected economic releases are the Retail Sales data, Philadelphia Fed reports, Building Permits data and the Producer Price Index data. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also expected to make a statement on Thursday.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 15, 2016

    The USD has been recently exhibiting a steady increase, causing the EUR/USD pair to open this week’s session with a weaker value and went even lower as the previous session progressed. The currency pair closed last week’s session at its support levels of 1.0850 and the market was expecting further support levels at 1.0800. However, the EUR/USD started out the previous trading session at below 1.0800 in the light of a broadly increasing USD value.

    The EUR/USD further decreased in value, going through 1.0750 at the London session and tested support levels at 1.0700 at the start of the New York trading session. The movements of the EUR/USD were somewhat muted during the course of the trading session, mainly due to the significant strength of the USD plus Draghi opting to stay mum with regards to the ECB’s future plans on its monetary policies. The currency pair spent the rest of the New York session consolidating after the market chose to keep a positive outlook for the Trump presidency, and the USD is expected to have a continuously positive reaction in the market.

    The market is now expecting the release of Germany’s preliminary GDP during the European session, as well as the retail sales data from the US to be released during the New York session. These are expected to confirm market speculations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016

    The AUD/USD pair  exhibited increased volatility during Tuesday’s session but ended the session on a higher range at 0.7559 points after increasing by +0.05% or 0.0004 points. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD closed down the previous trading session at 0.7099 after decreasing by -0.24% or 0.0017 points.

    The Australian dollar received substantial support after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its recently concluded policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA showed a balanced inflation risk, indicating a more stable monetary policy which is expected to go forward. The RBA has also showed a positive stance with regards to global growth. However, the market has to consider that the RBA meeting took place prior to the election of Donald Trump.

    The Australian dollar broke sharply as the session closed due to the release of the US retail sales data which came out on a much positive note as compared to October’s data. According to report, majority of households in the US purchased a wide range of goods, including motor vehicles. The retail sales report indicates that the US economy is sustaining enough growth which could increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will be closely watching the regulation of the financial market as well as interest rates due to Trump’s fiscal spending proposals. The Fed Vice Chairman has also stated that however risky the market liquidity is at present, the liquidity is just enough to sustain the movement of the global market.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016

    The GBP/USD pair remains in the lower trading range even though it has managed to stay above 1.2400. Market players have long been speculating that the after-effects of the Brexit referendum will continue to have an influence on the sterling pound no matter how many times it would increase and its bulls will not be able to stay put. The GBP will have difficulty with regards to getting and maintaining a substantial bull stance since the Brexit process will be too risky for investors and traders for them to make long-term bets. The currency pair has recently been trying to break through its rut, but any uptick by the sterling pound is always met with suspicion from investors and is always seen as a sell opportunity. The pair was somewhat able to increase by 200-300 pips during the past trading sessions but was incessantly pushed down by bears and has returned below 1.2500.

    For today’s trading session, investors are expecting the release of the UK retail sales data during the European session, with investors waiting whether this particular data release would be able to exceed initial expectations. The CPI data from US and comments from Fed’s Janet Yellen is also expected to make its rounds today, and the GBP/USD could possibly benefit if Yellen confirms the occurrence of the Fed rate hike in December by going down to the 1.2300 region.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 17, 2016

The USD CAD bolstered yesterday despite the recent decline in petroleum prices. The pair touched the ascending channel and trades to a lower boundary. The barrier found at 1.3400 region and provide the means for breaking the two-day decline. The price rebounded from the oversold level and continued to make an upward trend. The greens were able to surpass the 1.3470 level after the EU trades. The pair favorably widens its gains and headed to the 1.3540 mark consequent to the break-even of the aforesaid level. The bullish spike softened after testing the 1.3500 region.

Moreover, the pair pass through selling pressure and promptly turn back to the opening price. The price reverse to the 50-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages expanded its gains in the same timeframe. Resistance stayed at 1.3470, support hold the 1.3400 region. MACD settled at the centerline of both indicators. An entry on the positive territory will indicate strength for the buyers and the negative zone would imply that sellers will manipulate the market. RSI is in the oversold zone and approached northwards. The USDCAD pair appeared to bullish. The consolidation occurred on top of the 1.3470 level strengthened the position of the buyers.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 18, 2016

The market trend yesterday was pessimistic as it continued going down almost to lower physiological levels. The price activity remained calm with the latest lows during the Asian session. The uptrend was held back as it reached the 1.0750 mark resulting to a decline of the pair.

The Moving Averages stayed a bearish tone while Euro was seen to break in the 50-EMA followed by the retest in 100-EMA chart. The Resistance level is at 1.0750 while the support is seen at 1.0700 level. The technical indicators showed a bearish tone upon entering the negative zone. Both MACD and RSI indicator were seen within the oversold area.

If the pair did not go beyond the 1.0700 mark, the prices might go lower towards the 1.0650 level and will remain consolidated unless it will break at 1.0750 level.

The Eurozone CPI results for October were positive while the monthly CPI failed to meet expectations. The dollar slightly weakened but there are still appreciation seen to new highs. This is because of investors waiting for the next Fed rate hike on December and further strengthening of the economy.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016

    The USD/CAD pair ranged for the entirety of last week since the sudden surge in the value of the USD seemed to have little if no effect on the currency pair. However, the USD/CAD had one of the tightest ranges as compared to other pairs since the USD/CAD was unable to go beyond 1.3400 and 1.3600 on both the resistance and support side, which was mostly due to the fact that the increase in the value of the USD was mainly offset by the strength of the CAD.

    The CAD has been experiencing significant increases since next week due to an increase in oil prices as the OPEC meeting draws nearer. The market is currently putting in optimistic expectations with regards to the meeting, with deals hopefully being made and statements from various stakeholders are showing that this might be the case once the meeting commences. The Canadian economy is expected to get a boost if ever deals regarding oil production cuts are struck especially since the economy is largely dependent on the production of oil.

    For this week, the market is expecting the release of Canadian core retail sales data on Tuesday since this is an efficient indicator of Canadian purchasing power and this could give clues with regards to the general direction of the Canadian economy. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and this is expected to give hints regarding the Fed rate hike on December. The USD/CAD continues to be bullish, and the target for the currency pair is expected to be 1.40 in the next few months. The pair is most likely to be drawn to the said target by the impending Fed rate hike as well as an expected rate cut from Canada.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 21, 2016

The U.S. dollar subsided for a while but remained strong demonstrated by U.S. Economy that is still on track towards the target numbers. The higher chances and expectations for the next rate hike this December further boosts the dollar.

Hence, the market trend remains positive as it continued to move up on last week's Friday session. The price stayed at an upward direction within its high ceiling. However, the momentum halted at 111.00 level but still was able to revive its record highs overnight.

The moving averages shows a bullish trend. The Resistance level is found at 111.00 while the support comes at 110.00 level. Other technical indicators depicted a positive outlook for the pair supported by buyers as seen in the the MACD. The RSI indicators is close to overbought area that tells a sign to go higher level soon.

The market has to maintain the current level at 110.00 to sustain is bullish tone. It would be favorable for buyers to further expand their gains if the price breaks at 111.00 level. Therefore, the price could further go up to 112.00 mark. As for seller, it is possible to reverse the trend by exerting the price to move lower towards the 109.00 level.