Create and Test Forex Strategies
You are not logged in. Please login or register.
Forex Software → Market Analysis → Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
Hello Forum Members!
I am Andrea, an official representative of ForexMart.
Me and my colleagues will post daily technical and fundamental analysis on this thread to keep you updated about the market and help you increase your trading efficiency.
Thank you!
Fundamental Analysis: February 22
The dollar unsuccessfully increase in spite the fact of positive stock markets sentiment and healthy labor market data of the USA. Since the reported inflation level was reached by China, investors were grateful about the scarcity of its negative forecasts. In addition, the dollar was also affected by the Fed's meeting minutes that was released on Wednesday. The traders have an implication about the tender tone of the regulator that there is an additional regress from December's plans.
The inflation would stay at low levels according to the ECB minutes. Mario Draghi stated that by the next meeting on March 10, the ECB was all set to carry out further monetary policy easing. We once again come by the dissimilar expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. The EUR/USD pair grew a little bit by the end of the trades.
For January, the UK issued retail sales release at the level of 2,3% m/m and 5,2% y/y in opposition to the reported 0,8 m/m and 3,6 y/y. In contrary to the previous month, the positive trend in the labor market permit us to hope for retail sales increase. In the past year, a growth of wages was recorded in the UK throughout the period of November to December. By the end of the trades, the GBP/USD pair displayed an increase.
The Gross Domestic Product of Japan in 2016 was 1.0% to 0.8% to which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) demote its inflation report. In the beginning of this year, the Japanese yen was stabilized by 5.1% in opposition to the dollar. An aftermath of this is the decrease in the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. In January, the trade deficit in Japan reached 645.9 billion which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. By the end of the trades, the USD/JPY pair reduced.
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: February 23
The main topic yesterday was the referendum of the British to stick within the European Union or to depart from it which will be held on June 23, 2016. Discrepancies of opinions in British society become more noticeable as the topic goes on and on.
The first support is at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen create descending movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
Fundamental Analysis: February 24
The week was started with the dollar's aggrandizement over its competitor. In spite the fact that the oil price is aggressively rising, the US currency together with the stock assets managed to increased. The Markit Manufacturing PMI for February caused the dollar to slightly decelerate which was dropped to its bottom-most level of 51.0 since October 2012. The preceding value was 52.4 and the reported was 52.3.
In the 4th quarter, the Gross Domestic Product of Germany heightened unlike the recent quarter which correlates to the inflation rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure proved the preliminary evaluation. Hence, the Gross Domestic Product inflation rate reached 1.1% yearly. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.
The possible Brexit caused the GBP/USD pair to decreased. It is clear that the vigorous pound selling is due to the declaration of Mayor Boris Johnson, London, where he stated that he is all out support for the British exit from the European Union. The holding of the referendum on June 23 this year was confirmed by Prime Minister David Cameron. Despite of these advancement, the Citibank put up its estimation of the Brexit probability from 20-30% to 30-40%. The GBP/USD pair aggressively decreased.
On Tuesday, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan, stated that he did not see direct connection amid the monetary base growth and the inflation expectations. But still, Kuroda overvalue the effect of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The USD/JPY pair is stabilizing.
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: February 25
In spite of the concerns that Brexit may affect the Eurozone, the euro still enfeebled this week. The ECB representative Mr. Jens Weidmann stated that prolonged uncertainty about the topic might have an impact to the global economy. Moreover, disregarding the consequences of soft monetary policy might cause an issue. He also added that the economic point of view was not as bad as it seemed. Furthermore, a poor growth was an issue for the monetary policy and the slow Eurozone regains should be proceeded this year and the next year.
The first support occurs at 1.0925 and at 1.0800 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1050 and at 1.1150 subsequently.
A confirmed and sturdy sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.
Fundamental Analysis: February 26
The euro find its vigor to thrust the dollar down through the poor US data. The Markit Services PMI for February came out at the level of 49.8 contrary to the reported value of 53.5 and the recent 53.2. In the meantime, the expected slow decline of the primary housing market sales is -4.4% but slumped by 9.2%. The United States published the following reports: Initial Jobless Claims which is 272,000 contrary to the reported 270,000; Housing Prices which is 0,4% m/m contrary to the reported 0,5% m/m; Orders for Durable Goods wherein 1,8% m/m in opposition to the reported 0,2 m/m.
In spite of the decrease in oil prices, worries for the irregularity of the banking system of China, as well as the Brexit issue, the demand for euro reduced. Concurrently, the probable exit of British from the European Union caused the pound to multi-year lows, which also push the euro as well. There were assumptions of the probable depolarization of the European Union caused by the parting of UK which also make the traders to not use the euro as a safe haven. The EUR/USD pair became a bit stronger by the end of the trades.
Amidst the fact of the possible UK exit from the EU caused the GBP/USD pair to be pressured. The market was unpredictable in the expectation of the UK Gross Domestic Product data for Q4. Traders hoped for an increase by 0.5%. As a matter of fact, the second GDP estimate occurs at 0.5% q/q and +1.9 y/y. The GBP/USD pair is recovering.
The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades.
The EUR/USD is trading between the 200SMA and the support line. 1.10 remains a crucial level. Below it we might see an attempt for 1.09, above it we should get a close above the 200SMA for a new trend to begin.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 29
Since the inflation growth of Japan decelerated in January and became known, the Japanese yen decreased in opposition with the dollar. The issues of the regulator is apparently the cause of the slow-moving inflation as it could not regain the inflation to the target level of 2%. In addition, the positive report of USA GBP which is 1,0% contrary to the reported 0,4% has become the growth driver.
The first support occurs at 112.20 and at 111.40. The first resistance lies at 113.00 and at 113.80 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement displaying a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.
Fundamental Analysis: March 1
The most expected occurrence for this week would be the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), which is the final report that hopefully would change the mind of the Federal Reserve regarding the March rate hike. The Automatic Data Processing Report (ADP) will be published on Wednesday while the NFP will be on Friday.
The low inflation jog the trader's memory that the ECB was probably tighten its policy in March which cause the euro to still be under pressure. The other Eurozone countries displayed a deflation while the Germany reflected an increase for February and advanced to 0.4% after decreasing to 0.8% in January which concerns the consumer prices. The Eurozone published consumer price index for February. The index displayed -02% y/y, the reported was 0.1% y/y. The EUR/USD pair declined by the end of the trades.
The Brexit matter did not reduce its impact on the global financial markets. A statement from George Osborne, Finance Minister of Great Britain added a new impulse to panic. According to him, the British currency might fall and the country might encounter intense economic issues if it quitted from EU. The GBP/USD pair increase by the end of the trades.
The Japan's industrial production report for January was published which cause the yen to become popular. Contrary to the previous month, the index increased. The industrial production growth was 3.7% whilst the economists reported a growth by only 3.3%. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 2
The United Kingdom has publicized the manufacturing PMI for February which is 50,8 while the report was 52.3. The Mortgage Approvals surpassed the reports as it gained 74,587 contrary to the 71,335 recent report which is a quite positive statistics from the UK. In the meanwhile, the Consumer Credit for January reached £ 1.564 billion contrary to the expected 1,300 billion.
The first support occurs at 1.3920 and at 1.3840 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4000 and at 1.4080 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal may be found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.
Fundamental Analysis: March 3
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report has been issued by the United States at the level of 214,000 wherein, the recent value was from 205,000 to 193,000 while the report was 190,000.
The medium positive data of the manufacturing PMI from Markit cause an increase of quotations and also a decrease of unemployment rate to 10.3% in the eurozone. Since September 2011, the unemployment rate in Eurozone reached its bottom-most level yet way too far to the pre-crisis levels in 2008. Meanwhile, in the debt market, the 10-year government bond yield of Germany reduced in connection to their counterparts which is the US and the UK, wherein it diminished the attraction for European assets. In someway, it wasn't a long-term increase and the EUR/USD pair declined by the end of the trades.
We should take into account the construction PMI of the UK which occurs at the level of 54,2 that seems to be worse than the reported 55,5. The Gross Domestic Product in this sector reflected a decrease in the second half of the year 2015 after a long fast increase. It is also a negative factor for the construction sector the probable exit of the Great Britain to the EU. The London real estate market will be motionless if the UK leaves the union. However, the GBP/USD aggressively heightened by the end of the trades.
Some factors causes the USD/JPY to show some increase. The bears were put in a cumbersome position as the Japan's household spending were release in a negative data. As a funding currency, one of the negative factor for the yen is the "risk appetite in addition to private consumption as the basis of the GDP of Japan. The USD/JPY pair reduced by the end of the trades.
Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 4
The Swiss franc became stronger in opposition to the dollar. The Fed's Beige Book signified that the economic activity proceeded to broaden in most area like growth rates remarkably differ from poor to sturdy and the labor market conditions continue to get better wherein the dollar leveled its attainment.
The first support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.
A confirmed and sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement forming a "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.
Fundamental Analysis: March 7
The poor US statistic cause the market sentiment to intensified. In opposition to the European currency, the dollar loosen its track. The labor expenditure aggressively dropped to 3.3% contrary to the expected increase of 4.7% while the Initial Jobless Claims in the USA increased from 272,000 to 278,000. The US publicized the employment outside agricultural sector release. The statistics occur more than the expected of 190,000. The number of employees reached to 242,000.
The Fed's meeting will be held on March 16 and some economists think that the powerful employment data in the private sector will cause the Fed to heighten the rate. The USA issued another crucial release which is the unemployment rate for February wherein the recent value was 4.9% and the report was also at 4.9%. The data occurred at the reported median. The EUR/USD pair stabilized by the end of the trades.
The negative fundamental background of the pound clearly signified that we should expect a new downtrend in the near future even if it tries to grow. The investors were upset by the poor data of all three UK Markit's report this week. Moreover, the service PMI for February fell to its bottom-most level since March 2013 to 52.7 contrary to 55.1. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.
The USA issued the foreign trade balance for January wherein the recent value was 43.36 billion while the report was -43.5 billion. The USD/JPY pair is trading in a side passage.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 8
In the midst of the controversial US labor market report, the USD/JPY pair stayed in the range in spite the fact that the market has increased volatility. The governor of BOJ stated that the strong yen was not the primary cause of the core inflation infirmity. In addition to this, the negative interest rates were not planned to affect the currency market according to the governor.
The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is solidifying.
Fundamental Analysis: March 9
As the poor data of Chinese enliven anxiety towards the slack in the Chinese economy, the yen still managed to showed an increase in opposition to the dollar and euro. A demand stimulation for shelter currencies arises due to this data.
In February, the amount of Chinese exports dropped on a yearly basis by 25.4% to 126.1 million contrary to the reported decrease of 12.5% shown in the official data. In January, slowing from 18.8%, the number of imports decreased by 13.8% yearly. In the last quarter of 2015, the Gross Domestic Product had dropped by 1.1% that has been seen in the Japanese data on Tuesday, being modified from 1.4%.
Governor Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England discussed the financial costs and benefits of Great Britain membership in the EU. The 2nd estimate of Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter was published by the UK. Periodically corrected, this indicator was 0.3% in comparison with 0.3% in the previous quarter.
A growth rate of 0.3% for the last quarter has been anticipated by the experts. We hoped for a slight development in the French trade balance. In the midst of lofty expectations that the ECB will launch supplementary monetary policy easing, the euro stayed under pressure.
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 10
For the first time in three months, the Industrial Production for February expanded based on the National Statistics Office. In December, the index showed improvement by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decrease by 1.1%. The growth was also the most remarkable in in five months aside from the first in three months. Nevertheless, an increase rate of 0.4% is what the economists hoped for. And for the moment, the Manufacturing Production raised by 0.7% while the report was 0.2%.
The first support occurs at 1.4160 and at 1.4080 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4240 and at 1.4320 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an ascending movement. The upward movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is declining.
Fundamental Analysis: March 11
On Thursday, the sole European currency was limelighted. Aiming to support the economy in a low inflation environment, the European Central Bank (ECB) had to improve its measures. The primary news for the day were the Bank's resolution regarding monetary policy and Mario Draghi's press conference.
The ECB was certain that monetary policy should be simplified yet the new rate cuts would not be going to happen as the regulator made it clear. It has been expected that the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 points.
In comparison to the previous month data of 20,3 billion, the Germany issued Trade Balance that occurs at 18,9 billion. These data was changed upwards to 18,8 billion. For the last month, an increase rate of 19,6 billion is what the experts anticipated.
The Bank of England is not willing to grow the interest rates in conformity with the British macroeconomic data.In a few months, the UK shall manage a referendum on the UK exit from the EU. This also cause the British pound to be under pressure. The growth can be regarded as a consolidation from being low for seven years.
In spite of the increasing risks when the Consumer Price Index of China turned out better than what was expected, the Japanese currency became under pressure. Meanwhile, the US has issued the Initial Jobless Claims. The index showed 259,000 wherein the economists had expected a decrease from 277,000 to 275,000.
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 14
In conformity of the UK National Statistics Office, the country's trade shortage which is seasonally rectified, tapered in December from £10,45 billion to £10.29 billion. The previous month's data was re-evaluated up to £9.92 billion. In January, the trade shortage reached £10,3 billion according to economists forecast.
The first support is at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form an upward movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The indicator is increasing.
Fundamental Analysis: March 15
The Fed's probable declaration will be the primary driver to start up the week. The Central Banks will be the center of attraction this week and the BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England will going to declare their decisions. The banks' statements can still be a reason of volatility although we're not looking forward for surprises.
Risk aversion has been elicited and the dollar came under pressure cause by the ECB President Mario Draghi's statement regarding the lack of demand for new procedures last week. In someway, traders cope up to focus on new ECB's large-scale incentives which heightened the need for the dollar at the end of the trading week. Erkki Liikanen's statement, ECB representative, about the rates being cohered at the present or lower levels unless the target inflation level is reached, adds up some buoyancy. It gave the market tranquility as well as bringing hope to investors that the European regulator had more plans. On Monday, the euro/dollar pair declined by the end of the trades.
The favorable data of the UK trade shortage did not support the price to improve as the data showed £ -3.459 billion, and this also did not made any impression on the GBP/USD. Yet if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound consolidated. In someway, the pound/dollar pair fell by the end of the trades on Monday.
However, the USD/JPY pair were even as it goes on the trades.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 16
As the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, the yen increase as expected. The bank calculates the economic effect of its January decision to reduce the rate to negative values. Though this decision does not cause the yen to modulate, however some traders still think that the simplification measures of the Bank of Japan missed out its productiveness. Now, the traders' center of attraction goes out to the Federal Reserve's meeting.
The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.
The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.
Fundamental Analysis: March 17
The concerns regarding about the American regulator's hawkish actions, the Bank of Japan's idleness on it's last meeting, the decrease of oil prices and the issue of British exit from the EU being resumed were the main cause of risk aversion.
The press conference of Janet Yellen was the investor's center of attraction and the market did not hope for any revision of rates from the Federal Reserve. As we have all known, Yellen's statement did not have any difference from the previous statements. The regulator stated that the Fed will heighten the rates only if the regulator finds growth and the labor market positive tendency as the monetary authorities will closely monitor incoming macroeconomic data. Yellen did not confirmed the date of the next rate hike yet and said that Fed's attainment should involve a lower pace of rate growth. The EUR/USD pair grew.
Two important releases was published by the UK. First is the unemployment rate for January which occurs at the reported level wherein the recent value was -5.1% and the report was 5.1%. Next is the Average Earnings including bonus for January which came in at the level 2,1% wherein the recent value was 1.9% and the report was 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair increased by the end of the trades.
The USD/JPY was expected to leave the flat soon but this can be very volatile. Japan's economy continuously shows a slowdown and it does not need a sturdy yen. Simultaneously, the strong dollar is not a pleasing factor for the US Federal Reserve due to the negative impact to US exporters brought by the strong dollar. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.
Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 18
The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged cause the dollar to descend aggressively in opposition to the Swiss franc. As we have anticipated, the regulator was certain to left the policy unchanged as the National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday.
The first support occurs at 0.9660 and at 0.9580 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 0.9750 and at 0.9850 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement. The downward movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
Fundamental Analysis: March 21
The Fed meeting has gone by and the regulator made changes in his plans and declared only two rate hikes instead of four. The market also remained unstable after the meeting.
The demand for euro as a funding currency keep on growing in spite of the fact that the "risk appetite" is also increasing. This factor was completely disregarded by the market which manifested the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market signified varied trends as the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany increased in connection in the UK, but decreased to US Treasuries. The EUR/USD pair decreased by the end of the trades.
We did not received any significant macroeconomic data from the UK. We think that investors will be more attentive on the dynamics of oil market. Improving the highest of the last trading week, black gold fell by 3%. The demand for oil affected the pound/dollar pair in a usual positive way. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.
The dollar/yen pair marked a new low for the last 14 months. This kind of aggrandizement of the yen could be a menace to exporters and may also disgruntle the monetary authorities of Japan. The US issued consumer confidence from the University of Michigan wherein it showed 91,7 contrary to the reported 92,1. The USD/JPY pair grew by the end of the trades.
Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 22
As the United States and Japan government bonds yields divergence decreased to some extent, the debt market dynamics manifested an averaged demand for the Japanese currency. This also cause to lessen the appeal of the US assets. The USD/JPY pair grew a bit by the end of the trades.
The first support occurs at 111.40 and at 110.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 112.20 and at 113.00 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.
Fundamental Analysis: March 23
Being halted from increasing in opposition to the major currencies on Tuesday, the dollar still gained support caused by the investors who stick on being heedful as a round of terrorist attacks in Brussels killed 26 people and left more than 100 injured. This devastating events in Brussels affected the euro and the British pound negatively.
The market slightly strengthened in the absence of important macroeconomic reports. Likewise, US releases did not help to enliven the market. The existing Home Sales for February embark at a low level wherein it was lessened by 7.1% whereas analysts had hoped for a more moderate fall of 2.8%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February embarked at -0.29 contrary to the reported +.025 and the previous value of +0.41.
Our focus will be on the IFO Institute release. The dynamics of Gross Domestic Product of Germany is closely corresponded with this indicator and investors always keep an eye on it. This indicator has been consistently giving a negative trend for the last three months. In the midst of euro's growth, the market did not anticipated the data to be better than the consensus report. However, the data embarked at the level of 106,7 contrary to the reported 106,0. The euro/dollar pair decreased.
An Inflation Report was released by the UK. As expected, the sturdy labor market data pointed to the forecast that was a little better than the consensus report. The average monthly income was 0.2% in the last three months which would heighten inflationary pressures whilst the unemployment in UK is at the bottom-most level now since 2005. The Consumer Price Index embarked at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m contrary to the reported 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pound/dollar pair aggressively declined by the end of the trades.
As of now, we are not expecting a sturdy increase of quotations. The investors were not pleased with the United States' poor macroeconomic data wherein the Existing Home Sales for February lessened by 7.1%. The home sales reduced by 6.7% from January to March which only certified again the assumptions that the Americans started to save more than spending. The dollar/yen pair became stronger.
Forex Software → Market Analysis → Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
Powered by PunBB, supported by Informer Technologies, Inc.