1 (edited by philhu 2016-01-05 20:03:46)

Topic: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Hello,

I have some problems with the Forex Strategy Builder Optimizer and generally with the optimization/overoptimization. I generated a strategy with the generator and then I optimized the strategy. After that I tested the strategy with the Monte Carlo Tool and I got a very bad result. I need help, because I don't know how to make the strategy better or the best. Some photos (in a zip-folder) are added to the attachment.

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Best regards,
Philhu

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Phil, why do you think this strategy is worth the work? Maybe it's just a bad one and a smarter move would be to continue developing, finding better ones which have merit.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Hello,
thank you very much for you fast answer! smile
Is it possible, that you can show me a an example/picture from a balance chart that works good?

Best wishes,
Phil

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

A balance chart which works good? Well, here you are:
http://s1.postimg.org/gm2n47eiz/bal.jpg

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

You may have to develop many, many strategies before you get one that will stand the tests.....

You will have to research as to what seems to work.

You may have more oscillators than you should have in your strategy.

If you are using the generator only to make your strategy, you may find that you have too many slots open.

The simpler the strategy, the better the chances of getting good results in multimarkets.

If you are generating only on fast time frames, you will have problems getting good results in multimarkets.

Perhaps you can try to emulate patterns that you know to work in live trading, lock them and use a higher to to make sure trend is ok.

Unfortunately this requires a huge investment of time.

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Thanks you both! Very useful. smile

7 (edited by pradeepgolfer 2016-02-20 06:39:24)

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

philhu wrote:

Hello,

I have some problems with the Forex Strategy Builder Optimizer and generally with the optimization/overoptimization. I generated a strategy with the generator and then I optimized the strategy. After that I tested the strategy with the Monte Carlo Tool and I got a very bad result. I need help, because I don't know how to make the strategy better or the best. Some photos (in a zip-folder) are added to the attachment.

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Best regards,
Philhu

have you seen Popov's video on  how to use monte carlo

i mean this video: 7 - Creating a EURUSD M15 Forex Trading Strategy - 1

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

philhu wrote:

Hello,

I have some problems with the Forex Strategy Builder Optimizer and generally with the optimization/overoptimization. I generated a strategy with the generator and then I optimized the strategy. After that I tested the strategy with the Monte Carlo Tool and I got a very bad result. I need help, because I don't know how to make the strategy better or the best. Some photos (in a zip-folder) are added to the attachment.

I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Best regards,
Philhu

i just joined a few days so i am no expert like many of the others.i was seeing your monte carlo results and only one is really bad.
you say you got a very bad result....but it is because only one.

if you use the optimiser do not take the best result.

you could also use the generator to improve the results by locking the slots or using the link option.

i have been told by many people that the generator will not work.but since we are using the FSB we should rely on FSB tools to get the best EA as the FSB decides.this may not be profitable but in that case you can discard the strategy or improve it by some other means outside of the FSB.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

we do not seem to have the statistics such as SQN, Sharpe, win loss.....

Without those..... no sense investigating as they are the main determinants.

I have not found that the generator does not work, actually it works quite well in experienced hands and the operative word here is experienced.

Using the generator is a good way to develop strategies, we have to discern as to which results deserve further work.

When a strategy is showing huge numbers of losing trades probably best to discard it.

I often wait until the generator has built 1000 or more strategies before looking to select a couple.

Ensure that the ones you select have some good metrics. If not, start again.

If you are doubting the value of FSBPro and feeling you have to use other tools....... a clear indication you have not used FSBPro enough and learned how it works.

There is no need to introduce other materials to FSBPro strategy development... that is, unless you want to progress at a slower pace, and by all means. do that if you like.

As I see often in the forum, freedom of choice is essential, even if it costs you progress.

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Blaiserboy wrote:

we do not seem to have the statistics such as SQN, Sharpe, win loss.....

Without those..... no sense investigating as they are the main determinants.

I have not found that the generator does not work, actually it works quite well in experienced hands and the operative word here is experienced.

Using the generator is a good way to develop strategies, we have to discern as to which results deserve further work.

When a strategy is showing huge numbers of losing trades probably best to discard it.

I often wait until the generator has built 1000 or more strategies before looking to select a couple.

Ensure that the ones you select have some good metrics. If not, start again.

If you are doubting the value of FSBPro and feeling you have to use other tools....... a clear indication you have not used FSBPro enough and learned how it works.

There is no need to introduce other materials to FSBPro strategy development... that is, unless you want to progress at a slower pace, and by all means. do that if you like.

As I see often in the forum, freedom of choice is essential, even if it costs you progress.


Thanks Dave : i always listen to the voice of experience.


so once the generator has shown some strategies we can run the generator again and again to get more strategies:this i did not know.

also i like your suggestion that 'When a strategy is showing huge numbers of losing trades probably best to discard it'. this is  a good filter to implement.

searching for a strategy is like searching for a diamond in the rubbish dump.FSB is pretty fast way of doing that.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

I am doing an experiment..... do not really expect much of value..

I have an indicator in the open slot and the same in the opening logic slot, both are chained.

Daily data back to 1990

2 opening logic slots, 2 closing logic slots..

I will let this thing run for ten hours and see what I have...

Will drop the best result into  Multi against ten other pairs to see what happens.

And scrap it immediately if nothing good in there, start again.

I there seems to be a chance. I will restart the generator until I have 1000, then try again with multi

no real effort on my behalf, lots of time to explore other avenues

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

12 (edited by pradeepgolfer 2016-02-24 05:22:56)

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

i copied your strategy and it showed a downward graph of balance:see attachment

in that case why bother to optomise it?. perhaps some experienced FSBian can comment/answer this question

so far, in these few days of usage, i did not use the optomiser.

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13 (edited by pradeepgolfer 2016-02-24 05:42:15)

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Blaiserboy wrote:

I am doing an experiment..... do not really expect much of value..

I have an indicator in the open slot and the same in the opening logic slot, both are chained.

Daily data back to 1990

2 opening logic slots, 2 closing logic slots..

I will let this thing run for ten hours and see what I have...

Will drop the best result into  Multi against ten other pairs to see what happens.

And scrap it immediately if nothing good in there, start again.

I there seems to be a chance. I will restart the generator until I have 1000, then try again with multi

no real effort on my behalf, lots of time to explore other avenues


that is why i am getting as fast a computer as i can afford-then i will copy your ideas.if i make a million usd half is yours.

yes i am serious

when you say chained you mean 'linked'?

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Hello guys,

thank you for your help! big_smile

15 (edited by philhu 2016-02-27 18:50:17)

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

@footon

You sent a picture of your balance chart some weeks ago.
Is this a portfolio or a single strategy?
In which period did the strategy run?
Can you tell us more about this strategy?

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Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

It was a single strategy, and its main purpose was to illustrate the point we are after - equity line as a smooth rising diagonal. I made it to look into the future, so for trading purpose it is not valid.

17 (edited by philhu 2016-02-28 14:49:10)

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

@footon
Which program do you use for backtests and for test to see how the strategy works in the future? I know that I can use the backtester of MT4 but I can only backtest less than 6 months...
Which programs do you use?

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

@pradeepgolfer
You have posted a picture of my strategy some time ago. Which setting did you use that you can show this of graph?

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

philhu wrote:

@footon
Which program do you use for backtests and for test to see how the strategy works in the future? I know that I can use the backtester of MT4 but I can only backtest less than 6 months...
Which programs do you use?

I use FSB like this forum suggests, what else is out there? If you are serious about technical analysis, you should drop MT's backtester. We can't really look into the future and say what works or not, we have to assess strat's result and metrics, use the evaluation tools at hand and from there form sufficiently substantiated opinion of strat's worthiness.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

If ya wanna advance in strategy development.... use MT4 to collect data and as a connection to your broker ONLY... you have a choice. be a beginner forever or advance.

Do not use MT4 for testing, backtesting or dancing or playing billiards...

USE the OOS if you want, some people use it, some people do not use it..

Use Market at the top of your page to set dates for backtesting different periods. it takes seconds as you adjust the dates.  One hell of a lot faster than MT4

Use Multi charts to see if your strategy will work on other pairs and timeframes

Use MonteCarlo to test reliability in future.

Everything you need is within FSBPro except for long term data.  I use the FSBPro data initially because it is clean and easy to obtain.

Again....... everything you need to develop strategies is within FSBPro........ use it only... unless you want to go off on side trips to the mountains for a fishing trip and a picnic and a nap.

AND...... learn how to build strategies for yourself...... become a leader......  If you choose to be a follower. disaster awaits.  Mr Market is one greedy SOB and clobbers the weak.

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

philhu wrote:

@pradeepgolfer
You have posted a picture of my strategy some time ago. Which setting did you use that you can show this of graph?


Which setting? i am not sure i understand the question.

i think the picture shows the strategy conditions.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

@pradeepgolfer
Here is your screenshot.
http://forexsb.com/forum/misc.php?action=pun_attachment&item=2008&preview
There you can see 3 line graphs. How did you do that?

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

philhu wrote:

@pradeepgolfer
Here is your screenshot.
http://forexsb.com/forum/misc.php?action=pun_attachment&item=2008&preview
There you can see 3 line graphs. How did you do that?

In Control Panel->General tick show the short/long balance lines.

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Thank you!

I have an other question:
My broker is ActiveTrades and the spread is variable. For example:
The target spread of EURUSD is 0.70 PIPS and the average spread is 0.76 PIPS. Which spread should I use for EURUSD in FSBPro?

Re: Forex Strategy Builder optimized/overoptimized

Philhu, you can safely set 10 points or to leave the default 20 points spread. Any value higher than 8 points will work for you.