Brent Crude Oil: awaiting the publication of monthly OPEC report

Current trend

The prices for benchmark Brent crude oil continue their correctional movement, trading around $68.30 per barrel. The quotes stopped their global growth and consolidated within a comfortable range.

Investors are monitoring the situation in Asia, where a new outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic has been recorded. It is still unknown to what extent this situation may affect demand. OPEC is to publish its monthly report today and the situation may become clearer. Also, the US Department of Energy will present its short-term outlook on the energy market, and traders will be able to assess the impact of recent cyberattacks on the US fuel infrastructure.

As for the situation in the global arbitrage position of the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil, then everything is quite calm, and the price difference has been kept in the range of $3.5–4 for a long time, which indicates the reluctance of large players to do something. Global investors are satisfied with the current quotes of the asset and the stable range of weekly volatility of 4–6%.

Support and resistance

Locally, the asset is growing smoothly within a fairly wide channel. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator intertwined with the signal line and the histogram of the AO oscillator trades close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 68.90, 70.30.
Support levels: 67.70, 66.30.

XAG/USD: high bond yields inhibit growth

Current trend

Silver contract price is correcting downwards, trading at 27.00 and continuing to trade in a global uptrend.

Investors watched the auction for the placement of 10-year US Treasuries at a rate of 1.684%. Such high yield has a negative effect on the price of silver and gold, but it could not exceed the psychological level of 1.700%, which gives hope for a slowdown in the growth of the debt market.

The XAG/USD pair is supported by a significant increase in inflation in the US, the expectation of which was one of the main reasons for the strengthening of precious metals in April and May. These assets have always been ideal hedging instruments to protect capital from inflationary risks, so higher rates from the US Fed are needed for their growth. Annual inflation in the country accelerated to 2.6%, which means an increased likelihood of an early change in monetary policy by the American regulator.

Support and resistance

On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to grow within a narrow ascending channel. Technical indicators maintain the buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator continues to expand, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is high in the purchase zone.

Resistance levels: 27.61, 29.00.
Support levels: 26.47, 24.93.

XAU/USD: growth in supply pushes quotes up

Current trend

Gold quotes continue corrective growth, trading at $1,855 per ounce. After the lifting of quarantine restrictions, the global demand for metals went up sharply, provoking price growth.

At the moment, industry leaders are beginning to actively recover from the consequences of the pandemic, increasing gold production, which will undoubtedly affect the price of the precious metal. Yesterday, the South African statistics service published data on mining for March this year. According to official data, the figure rose by 21.3%, the growth of platinum ore production was 68.6%, and of gold – 10.5%. However, the volume of sales of the asset rose much higher, at 61.3%.

Thus, the strengthening of world metal production and the current negative trend in the US dollar contribute to the positive dynamics of the instrument.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price reaches the resistance line of the global downtrend and its breakout will allow the rate to reach 2000.0 by the end of May. Technical indicators keep a global buy signal: the fluctuation range of the Alligator EMA is quite wide, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 1871.0, 1955.0.
Support levels: 1815.0, 1763.0.

Brent Crude Oil: pending decisions on the Iranian nuclear deal

Current trend

Brent crude prices continue their correctional movement, trading at 68.00 after another attempt to consolidate above the key level of 70.00.

Analysts point to possible significant progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran on the renewal of the nuclear deal. If the parties are able to agree, and the US authorities will not extend the sanctions against Tehran, this will allow Iran to significantly increase the supply of cheap "black gold" to the world market.

Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released data on weekly stocks, which increased by 0.620M barrels, which is lower than the expected increase of 1.680M. Today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy will publish its report, which is predicted to show an increase in reserves of 1.623M barrels. However, if the actual data demonstrate a decrease in the indicator, the local trend in the asset may again change to an uptrend.

Support and resistance

On the local chart, the asset continues to trade close to the global high, forming a sideways channel with the boundaries of 70.00–66.50.

Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has moved into the sell zone, forming the first bar below the zero level.

Resistance levels: 70.20, 74.00.
Support levels: 66.70, 63.00.