Topic: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD strengthened 0.33% against the USD to close at 0.7798, rebounding from its previous session losses.

LME Copper prices dropped 0.46% or $26.0/MT to $5666.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 0.88% or $16.5/MT to $1855.0/MT.

Early morning data showed that consumer prices in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, slipped to a 5-year low of 0.8% on a YoY basis in January, compared to prior month’s level of 1.5%, while markets expected it to decline to 1.0%, thus indicating that the risk of deflation was increasing in the world’s second biggest economy. In addition, the nation’s producer price index eased more than expected by 4.3% on an annual basis in January, against market expectations of 3.8%. It had fallen 3.3% in the preceding month.

In Australia, the NAB indicated that business confidence index climbed to a level of 3.0 in January, following a reading of 2.0 recorded in December, while business conditions remained flat at a level of 2.0 in January. Meanwhile, the nation’s house price index advanced 6.8% on a YoY basis in 4Q 2014, lower than market expected rise of 7.1%. The index had registered a revised level of 9.0% in the prior quarter.

Furthermore, the NAB mentioned that the Australian economy was losing momentum and forecasted that the RBA would go for a second interest rate cut in May.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.7776 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.7724. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.7863, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.7897.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: Japanese Yen reverses its losses in the Asian session

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD strengthened 0.39% against the JPY and closed at 120.19.

In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 119.73, with the USD trading 0.38% lower from yesterday’s close.
Earlier today, data released showed that labour cash earnings in Japan climbed 1.30% on an annual basis in January more than market expectations for an advance of 0.50%. Labour cash earnings had registered a revised similar pace of rise in December.

Overnight data indicated that monetary base in Japan climbed 36.70% YoY in February. It had climbed 37.40% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 119.45 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 119.18. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 120.14, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 120.56.

Meanwhile, investors look forward to the release of Japan’s services PMI data, scheduled in the early hours tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: ECB all set to start QE on 9th March, 2015

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR dropped 0.49% against the USD and closed at 1.1029, after the ECB President, Mario Draghi, stated that the central bank will start with the quantitative easing programme from 9 March 2015, wherein it will purchase assets worth €60 billion a month until September 2016 or until inflation reaches back close to the 2% target. In addition, the ECB kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.05%. The central bank also upgraded Euro-zone’s growth forecast for 2015 to 1.5% from 1% and indicated that the region’s economy was anticipated to expand by 1.9% and 2.1% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Meanwhile, dismal factory orders data in Germany pressurised the EUR further. Data revealed that Germany’s factory orders slid more than expected by 3.9% on a monthly basis in January, compared to market expectations of a 1.0% decline. It had risen by a revised 4.4% in the preceding month.

In the US, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rise to 320 K in the week ended 28 February, up from prior week’s level of 313 K. Markets were expecting it to decline to a level of 295 K. Meanwhile, factory orders in the nation unexpectedly retreated 0.2% in January, higher than market expectations for a 0.2% rise. It had dropped 3.5% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0973 and a fall through could take it to the next support line of 1.0916. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.11, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1172.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s 4Q GDP data, scheduled in a few hours. Additionally, the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data would generate a lot of market attention.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: Japanese Yen trading on a weaker footing this morning


COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD weakened 0.20% against the JPY and closed at 121.10.
In economic news, machine tool orders in Japan registered a rise of 28.9% YoY in February, up from previous month’s level of 20.4%.

Overnight data revealed that the nation’s machine orders declined 1.7% on a monthly basis in January, lower than market expected 4.0% fall. It had risen 8.3% in the previous month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 120.82 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 120.24. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 122.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 122.63.

Going forward, market participants would concentrate on Japan’s BSI large manufacturing and tertiary industry index data, scheduled overnight.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: GBP trading higher in the Asian session

COZforex: On Friday, the GBP declined 0.96% against the USD and closed at 1.4749, on the back of downbeat UK construction output data.

Britain’s seasonally adjusted construction output data unexpectedly slid 2.6% on a monthly basis, declining for the first time since May 2013 in January, while markets were expecting it to rise 1.3%, thus denting investor optimism over the nation’s economic outlook.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.4757, with the GBP trading 0.06% higher from Friday’s close.

Earlier today, data indicated that the UK Rightmove house price index rose 1.0% MoM in March, down from prior month’s advance of 2.1%.

In technical analysis, COZforex foreign currency senior currency strategist, Paul Chew said: GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.4673 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.4588.
Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.4869, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.4980.

Amid no further major economic releases in the UK today, market participants await the release of Britain’s ILO unemployment rate data, scheduled on Wednesday to get better insights in the nation’s economy.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: Swiss franc higher after SNB keeps rates on hold

COZforex: The Swiss franc strengthened against the euro and the dollar on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank kept its interest rates and deposit charges unchanged, but indicated that it would “remain active” in forging exchange markets.

The SNB said it was keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at minus 0.75%, in line with market expectations. The central bank left the target range for the 3 month Libor unchanged at between minus 1.25% and minus 0.25%.

In a statement, the central bank said the Swiss franc continued to be “significantly overvalued” and added that it will "remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, in order to influence monetary conditions."
The SNB also cut its forecasts for inflation and growth from its December forecast, in response to the franc’s rally against the euro after it abandoned its 1.20 exchange rate floor against the single currency in mid-January.

The dollar rebounded against the other major currencies on Thursday following steep declines in the previous session, after the Federal Reserve struck a more dovish tone than expected on interest rates.

In a statement following its monetary policy meeting, the US central bank downgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation and lowered its interest rate projections.

The Fed dropped a reference to being "patient" on the timing of rate hikes, but added that the change in its forward guidance did not mean it has decided on the timing for an initial rate increase.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen also warned that the stronger dollar was acting as a drag on US exports and was pushing down inflation.


(COZ forex UK)

Re: COZfx: The NAB expects three rate cuts from the RBA this year

COZfx: CB leading index in Australia rise in January

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD strengthened 1.41% against the USD to close at 1.41%.
In economic news, the CB leading index in Australia rise 0.4% in January, compared to a similar gain recorded in February.

In commodities, LME Copper prices rise 2.93% or $173.5/MT to $6093.5/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rise 1.36% or $24.0/MT to $1787.0/MT.

Earlier today, in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, the CB leading economic index edged up to a reading of 1.5 in February, from prior month’s level of 0.9. On the other hand, the nation’s preliminary HSBC manufacturing PMI dipped to an 11-month low of 49.2 in March, from previous month’s reading of 50.7. Markets had forecasted a reading of 50.6, thus signalling weakness in the world’s second biggest economy.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.7774, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 0.7698. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.7914, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.7979.


(COZ forex UK)