Re: Dave's Ramblings

There are 130 sell entries here, on a 5 minute chart between 16:55 and 02:35 !

Almost a scalping robot... hahaha



http://s16.postimg.org/mb90r7q3l/Dave_M_0069.jpg



http://s23.postimg.org/bs00qg5ev/Dave_M_0071.jpg

I closed it to get ready for the next trend.  Amazing Macd.!!

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

This fund represents shares from around the world.

It looks like there is a divergence forming, perhaps a sign of an upset in world finances.


http://s8.postimg.org/bbm5w7coh/Dave_M_0144.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Perhaps the start of a Bear Market




http://s14.postimg.org/9nn0ho1gd/Dave_M_0149.jpg

And here is an update on AWCI, confirming S&P



http://s30.postimg.org/67ojzod99/Dave_M_0150.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

I am interested in trading long trends I am not too good with the choppy markets so I like to have some trend information, especially when considering #CFD's and Indicies.

I found a web page that has a summary of many groups including some Forex showing trend information.

http://www.followingthetrend.com/trends-of-the-world/

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Although most of us are doing automated trading, there are some things we can adapt from this list.

It is best to delay action instead of making poor entries based on emotion and careless planning.

20 Rules For Effective Trade Execution

Execution can be the weakest link in an otherwise great market strategy. After all, it's a lot easier to find good stocks than to trade them for a profit. So how do we enter the market at just the right time and capture the big moves we see on our charts?

Here are 20 rules for effective trade execution. Try these out the next time you're getting ready to pull the trigger.

1. Seek favorable conditions for trade entry, or stay out of the market until they appear. Bad execution ruins a perfect setup.

2. Watch the tape before you trade. Look for evidence to confirm your opinion. Time, crowd and trend must support the reversal, breakout or fade you're expecting to happen.

3. Choose to execute or to stand aside. Staying out of the market is an aggressive way to trade. All opportunities carry risk, and even perfect setups lead to very bad positions.

4. Filter the trade through your personal plan. Ditch it if it doesn't meet your risk tolerance.

5. Stay on the sidelines and wait for the opportunity to develop. There's a perfect moment you're trying to trade.

6. Decide how long you want to be in the market before you execute. Don't daytrade an investment or invest in a swing trade.

7. Take positions with the market flow, not against it. It's more fun to surf the waves than to get eaten by the sharks.

8. Avoid the open. They see you coming, sucker.

9. Stand apart from the crowd. Its emotions often signal opportunity in the opposite direction. Profit rarely follows the herd.

10. Maintain an open mind and let the market show its hand before you trade it.

11. Keep your hands off the keyboard until you're ready to act. Don't trust your fingers until they move faster than your brain, but still hit the right notes.

12. Stand aside when confusion reigns and the crowd lacks direction.

13. Take overnight positions before trading the intraday markets. Longer holding periods reduce the risk of a bad execution.

14. Lower your position size until you show a track record. Work methodically through each analysis, and never be in a hurry.

15. Trade a swing strategy in range-bound markets and a momentum strategy in trending markets.

16. An excellent entry on a mediocre position makes more money than a bad entry on a good position.

17. Step in front of the crowd on pullbacks and stand behind them on breakouts. Be ready to move against them when conditions favor a reversal.

18. Find the breaking point where the crowd will lose control, give up or show exuberance. Then execute the trade just before they do.

19. Use market orders to get in fast when you can watch the market. Place limit orders when you have a life outside of the markets.

20. Focus on execution, not technology. Fast terminals make a good trader better, but they won't help a loser.

By Alan Farley

http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/20rulesforeffectivetradeexecution.html

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Busting 5 of the Biggest Myths About the Daily Time Frame

From http://www.theforexguy.com/forex-daily … ing-myths/


Let’s face it: most traders are very uninterested in the larger time frames.

They’re too slow, they much prefer to play in the slaughtering fields known more commonly as the 5 & 15 minute time frames.

We’ve all been there, blown accounts, gotten upset over failing, and been left wondering where it all went wrong.

As you replay events over and over in your head, you eventually ponder to yourself, “What time frame is going to work best for me?”

This is a question a lot of traders are looking to get closure on.

On the popular Forex forums, you would have noticed that most traders gravitate toward and even heavily promote scalping or day trading strategies.

You’ve probably even used logical thinking like, “Well if everyone else is doing it, then it must be the way to go, right?”

Nine times out of ten, traders are banging their heads in frustration because they’ve ‘followed the herd’ like this, and ended up using deadly high frequency trading strategies on the faster paced time frames.

When traders come to me and ask me why they aren’t doing so well – I recommend they make the switch to the daily time frame.

Nearly every time I am met with resistance – most are very hesitant to make the switch.

The reason the majority of traders are reluctant to change stems from a few misconceptions of using the higher charts, like the daily time frame.

Today I am going to put out some fires, and alleviate some of the concerns you may have.

Continue to read today’s top myths about the daily chart, keep an open mind and most of all – be honest with yourself.


MYTH #1 – The daily time frame is too “expensive” to trade

money mythThe first suggestion I like to make to troubled traders, is to try to base the core of their trading decisions from the daily time frame.

The most common response I receive back is, “How can you expect me to trade the daily time frame when I have such a small account?”

If you think like this, then you’re lucky you found this article. Believing that you can’t afford to trade the daily time frame is a very toxic, self-sabotaging misunderstanding to make, and your own mental blocks are stopping you from moving forward with a winning mindset.

Your account size doesn’t determine what time frame you should be trading.

All this silly speculation flows from the idea – “the wider your stop loss, the more expensive the risk.”

It’s true your stop loss will be wider when you work with trade signals derived from the daily time frame, but the moves you will capture are just as large.

Actually, it’s not as wide as you think – the average stop loss size is about 50 pips. It’s not really that big of a deal, especially when you might grab 250 pips out of a 50 pip risk.

Traders who believe the daily time frame is too expensive to trade, simply don’t understand how to calculate position size correctly.

Lot sizing is calculated mathematically, so you can risk any amount of money into a stop loss of any size.

taking risk on daily time frame

It’s possible to risk $100 into a 10 pip wide stop, or a 100 pip wide stop.

If you want to, you can calculate the position size needed for $10 risk across a 2000 pip stop loss spread. Actually it took me two seconds to do that calculations, $10 risk over 2000 pips on the EURUSD would be a lot size of 0.0005.

They’re just numbers, you just need to be able to work with them properly.

If you’re on a micro account, you could calculate your position size accurately to only risk small amounts, say $5 into a 70 pip stop for example (which would be 0.007 lots on the EURUSD).

There is no restriction on what money you risk over what stop size – unless you risk a stupidly high amount of money which requires mammoth lot sizes like 50. If you risked $20,000 over a 10 pip stop loss, you would need a position size of 200 lots – and you would probably make a few guys over at your broker break into a sweat trying to fill that.

it’s just simple mathematics, and really should be the bread and butter of your money management skills.

I am not going to bore you by going into the math here, but I do cover all this in detail in the Price Action Protocol Course.

I’ve even developed a money management panel tool which does this calculation for you – which is available for war room traders also.

If you’re not part of the war room, you can always use other third party calculators like the babypips position size calculator.

If you’re serious about getting trading right, and you don’t know anything about position sizing – I suggest you make this an urgent priority. Once you understand it, you will never say silly things like ‘the daily chart is too expensive’.
Summary
It doesn’t matter if you have a $100, $1000, or $10,000 account – if you understand position sizing, then you can trade on the higher time frames with ease. You don’t have to miss out on the benefits the daily time frame offers because of what other naive traders told you.


MYTH #2 – Higher time frames are not as profitable

higher time frames are more lucrative

The majority of traders, especially the newbies, are so focused on short term charts, because they have entered the market with the wrong mind-set.

Many traders believe if you put in the hours, you will get the returns – because this is what our normal lives have taught us.

If you put in the extra overtime at your day job and your boss is nice enough, you will generally be rewarded for your extra enthusiasm and efforts.

The market just doesn’t work in this way, in fact it’s the opposite. It’s crucial you don’t make the mistake of trying to bring real-life intuition and logic into the market – it is a dangerous mix.

The lower time frames will generate more signals, but these signals are much lower in quality.

When you’re trading in an environment like the 5, 15 and 30 minute charts, you’re basically trading off ‘market noise’.

Granted, the longer time frames won’t roll out trade setups at such a high pace. But, the signals that are generated on the daily time frame are much more reliable – and have a much better chance of working out.

It’s the whole quality vs quantity argument. Quality is more important in Forex. It’s better to trade a handful of high quality trades, rather than trying to trade lots of poor quality ones.

It’s a no brainer, the daily time frame offers more clarity by providing the ‘bigger picture’:

It’s far easier to identify the core price movements and get a much better read into the market psychology; flick over to the daily chart and I bet you will be able to interpret the market much more easily than if you are used to reading the lower time frame charts.

Signals on the daily time frame contain more value as good trading opportunities, because they contain more price data within the signal. A signal on the 15 minute chart contains only a fraction of the data in comparison, therefore making it many factors lower in reliability.

Signals on the daily time frame generate good follow through with price movement, allowing for a better chance to hit a 1:3 risk reward on your trade. A trade setup on the 15 minute chart is at high risk of being destroyed from the normal day to day volatility.

15 min chart low follow through

These rejection candles that formed on the 15 minute chart, during typical market conditions, offered very little to no price follow through. These would be very frustrating and not very profitable to trade, most ending as a loss.

Now have a look at the daily chart and check out the difference…

daily time frame good follow through

The first thing that clearly stands out is the core market direction. The daily time frame prints this loud and clear, whereas the 15 minute chart was very difficult to determine where the market wanted to go.

Trade signals that formed in line with the dominant movement on the daily chart saw much better price follow through.
Summary
Many traders believe the high turnover of candles on lower time frames = more profits. It’s quality vs quantity. 1 signal on the daily chart has 96x more price action data within it over a 15 min signal – making the daily signals much more accurate & reliable.


MYTH #3 – The longer YOU’RE in a position, the higher the risk

time money quality of the daily time frameThere are traders that will push the idea of being ‘in and out’ of the market – claiming it is less risky over holding positions on a longer term.

This is built on some bad logic, it generally goes something like this…

“When you enter and exit the market really quickly, you won’t be in danger of being stopped out if the market reverses on you.”

Think about it, you’re always going to be at risk of being stopped out from an unexpected market event, no matter what strategy you use.

The funny thing is, you’re more likely to be stopped out by some intra-day volatility when you take low time frame setups, and use stop losses that are tighter than a bee’s backside.

The daily chart does a good job of filtering out this intra-day noise, providing you with more reliable data to base your trading decisions off of.

Most daily time frame setups are hardly unaffected by the intra-day volatility that knocks the scalpers around.

Gaining more of an edge can be as easy as going up higher in the time frame scale.

Lower time frames spawn mentally taxing trading strategies that require you to be at the computer and monitor price movements for hours on end.

Most short term traders initially love the ‘thrill’ and the ‘action’ the fast pace charts provide – but it’s only a matter of time before you experience ‘mental burnout’.

You’ve only got a finite amount of mental discipline per day. Once it runs out, frustration starts to build up within and dangerous emotions you’ve been trying to hold in are suddenly dictating your every move. Your emotions want what the market won’t give.

Greed, frustration, anger and impatience start to trigger bad trades, sending you into a dangerous state of mind that is hard to bounce back from.

The daily time frame sets you up for better success straight away.

You only spend a fraction of the time in front of the charts – so you’re at less risk of experiencing ‘trader burnout’.

It’s going to be much easier to keep a cool head while maintaining your mental and emotional discipline.
Summary
Trading with strategies that use low time frames require you to sit in front of the screen for too long and can lead to a mental burn out. This is when you’re most susceptible to your own emotions and can trigger a dangerous wave of responses from you that are hard to bounce back from. Time frames like the daily chart require you to spend much less time in front of the screen – therefore preserving previous mental energy and discipline.


MYTH #4 – Positions are dangerous to hold overnight

This statement is just newbie day trader’s crap.

“You’ve got to close your position by the end of the day”

The Forex market is open for 24 hours, 5 days a week. It is fair to say that holding positions over the weekend can be a little risky if your position is fresh, due to unexpected weekend gaps from high impacting global events – but that’s a completely different topic and it is rarely is an issue.

There is no benefit to closing your trades at the end of the day in a continuous market. The end of someones day is the start of someone else’s.

In fact, you could actually be shooting yourself in the foot by closing off your trades early.  It’s not uncommon for trades to take one or two days before you see the ‘breakout’ move from the setup.

Have a look at the example trade setup shown below – a bearish rejection candle captured on the daily time frame…

4 day market stall on the daily time frame

This is a good example of why we need to be patient, and let the market do what it needs to do.  Closing before the end of the day would have ensured you were left standing behind, regretting a lost opportunity.

I know it would be great if you could enter a trade and price proceeds to shoot off like a cannon ball hitting your target straight away. This will occur sometimes, but you shouldn’t be relying on it happening too often.

The reality is, some trades may dip into the negative once or twice before maturing into profit – this dipping in and out could span over a few days.

You need to give your trades a chance, and give the market the opportunity to do its thing. Don’t cut yourself short by closing your trades off at the end of the day – you will seldom catch any good moves in the market if you regularly do this.
Summary
The Forex market is a continuous 24 hour market that only closes on weekends, there is absolutely no reason why you need to close all your open trades by the end of the day. Most of the big moves in Forex can span days to weeks, and you need to hold your position to ride them out for what they’re worth in order to get a high ROI on your initial risk.


MYTH #5 – Price movements on the daily time frame are hard to predict

This rumor branches from the everlasting argument of technical vs. fundamental analysis.

There are a group of traders who believe technical trading is only effective for the lower charts and that having a good understanding of fundamental analysis, or a PhD in economics, is needed for the daily time frame.

You don’t need to be an economist or high end financial analyst to be able to follow long term movements. Believe it or not, all the data you need is displayed via the footprint that price leaves behind on your chart – i.e., the candlesticks.

Technical analysis works extremely well on the daily chart – better than it does on most other time frames. For this reason I call the daily the ‘Goldilocks’ of all the time frames – not too slow, and not too fast.

Another key reason technical analysis works so well on the daily chart is because of the larger amount of data it provides to traders.

The noise generated, and erratic price movements on the lower time frames will corrupt your technical analysis, hinder your ability to ‘read the chart’, and usher you into many false signals.

Thanks to the clarity the daily chart brings to your screen, good trading opportunities are very easy to identify.

The real struggle for you, the trader, is to shift your focus towards less intense trading. Large gains that are up for grabs on the daily time frame can work to change a struggling intra-day scalper into a calm swing trader.

Take a look at the example below…

nice daily time frame price movements

The examples of the price action signals above are good examples of how easy it can be to anticipate future price movements using simple technical trading signals.

Myself and many of the other War Room traders jumped on board both of these price action setups. The simplicity of these types of setups are one of the major benefits of price action.

It’s time to stop chasing ghosts on the 15 minute chart, and start trading the right way.

daily time frame mythJust by switching over to the daily time frame, you’re making necessary corrections to begin paving the way to trading success.

The daily time frame requires less time out of your day, and provides a clearer picture of the market – allowing you to be more objective.

The reduction in screen time puts you at less risk of becoming mentally or emotionally unstable, and gives you the opportunity to enter trade setups that yield greater returns.

Get it out of your head that more work equals more money. Less becomes more in the Forex world.

If you would like to learn how to trade the “lazy way”, and start taking advantage of all the benefits the daily chart offers – check out our price action trading course.

We teach how to combine price action strategies with the daily charts using end of day trading strategies which is a stress free way to fit ‘full time trading’ into your busy life.

I hope you found this article useful and now have a different opinion about the daily charts.

Even if you don’t, at least give them a try – I think you will appreciate the much less intense version of trading and be able to live your life a bit more.

Best of luck on the charts this week!

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Article By Nial Fuller

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/fo … ding#close

Why I ‘Seriously’ Hate Day Trading



I have really wanted to write an article on why I hate day-trading for some time now…because I actually do HATE it…Day-trading is something that everyone knows about; you could walk up to any stranger and say “what do you think about day-trading?”, and they would probably say something like “risky, but it can make you rich really fast”. Day-trading is one of the main ideas that lures people into the trading world; they think they will make some fast money and live the “dream” if they just learn how to “day-trade”. However, once they try it, most people quickly realize that it’s time intensive, stressful, and extremely difficult to make consistent money at.

If you get hooked on day-trading you are going to enter into a game of ‘quantity over quality’ of trades, and that is not what we believe in here at Learn To Trade The Market.  Our goal is to help traders  ‘preserve capital’ and wait patiently for only the ‘high probability trades’. Hopefully this article gives you some insight into why day trading is typically a highway to disaster for most traders.
I hate the façade of the stereotypical “day-trader”…

There seems to be an impression among the general public that if you’re a financial market speculator of any type you’re a “day-trader” sitting at home in front of multiple monitors making tons of frantic keystrokes and phone calls all day. Indeed, it seems more prestigious for us to tell our friends and acquaintances that we are “day-traders” during a lunch or dinner conversation…because when you tell someone you’re a day-trader they immediately get a certain image in their head. If you say “I’m a daily chart swing-trader and I trade 4 to 10 times per month”….well that just sounds a lot less glamorous doesn’t it?

This Illusion of the “day-trader” is something that appeals to many people simply because they want to say they are “day-traders”…there’s a certain perception of being some young and rich “day-trader” making millions and having a Ferrari…it ain’t reality though…

The reality of a day-trader is a guy who got 2 hours of sleep last night because he was trying to trade the overnight session, now he’s up at 6am trying to day-trade the next session. Many traders get sucked into trying to become a rich day-trader largely because that’s what they think is socially acceptable or “cool”,  and it turns into them being glued to the charts every chance they get and probably not making much money (if any). This is not a healthy way to trade and it’s definitely not a healthy way to learn how to trade.
Top down approach

As a trading educator, it makes me HATE day-trading even more when I think about all the trading websites out there promoting it and how a lot of them are geared towards beginner traders, not to mention how heavily day-trading and scalping are discussed in almost every public trading discussion forum on the internet. Day-trading is something that should only be attempted by a very experienced trader, and probably should just not be attempted at all.

You need to think of trading like building a house; first you need a foundation to build the house on, then as the house progresses you get down to finer and finer details until finally you are discussing how to decorate the interior and what type of TV to buy. As a trader, you NEED to understand how the higher time frame charts work and higher time frame price dynamics before you attempt trading the lower time frames. Trading should ALWAYS be taught and learned in a top-down technical approach, so that you understand what the higher time frames are doing before you try lower time frame trading or day-trading. This is how I teach my students in my trading courses and it’s how I have personally traded for over a decade..
Most Brokers CA$H in on day-traders (not all, but most)

Another reason why I hate day-trading is that there’s definitely a financial incentive for brokers to get people to trade more frequently. It’s very simple, more trades equals more money from spreads or commissions and that equals more money for the broker. So, there’s an underlying bias by many brokers and the greater Forex industry to get traders hooked on trading as frequently as possible. Brokers who have wider spreads make more money off you every time you trade, so they want you to trade. Thus…day-traders make a lot of money for many brokers; this is why you aren’t going to see any information about the perils of day-trading on most brokers’ websites.

It’s worth noting that not all brokers do this; some brokers have very tight spreads and don’t emphasize day-trading, and this is fairer on the trader, but most simply don’t. A Forex broker is in a position of “authority” to the unsuspecting newbie retail trader who assumes the broker well always do what’s in the best interest of their client. The point is this; be sure you choose your broker wisely.

I’ve been trading for over 10 years and I still do not “day-trade”…that should tell you something right there. Again…it comes back to preserving your own capital…when you trade more frequently you give more money to your broker in spreads or commissions, leaving you with less money to trade with when you get high-probability signals in the market.
Stop-hunters love day-traders

Day traders naturally have stop losses closer to the market price since they are typically trading intra-day charts and trying to get quick gains with tight stops. The “big boys” and institutional traders love the average retail day-trader because they give them plenty of stops to “hunt”. Being a day trader and entering a lot of trades each week means it’s a lot harder to have a high winning percentage, largely because you get stopped out so much. Institutional traders have access to information on order flow and where stops are placed; it’s not only brokers who go “stop hunting” but the bigger institutional traders who can “sniff out” where the smaller intra-day traders are placing their stops. Have you ever noticed how if you try to trade intra-day the market tends to hit your stop and then reverse back in the direction of your initial position? The more day-trades you enter the greater risk you run of getting “stop-hunted” by the big boys.
Example Of Stop Hunting In Action

In the chart example below, we are looking at a 15minute USDJPY chart from earlier this week. Now, had you been trying to day-trade this 15 minute chart you probably would have talked yourself into trading all three of the pin bar setups below…

failed signals
Example of How To Avoid Stop-Hunting

Now take a look at the daily USDJPY chart below…none of those 15 minute failed pin bar setups are even visible…by focusing on the daily chart you give the “stop-hunters” less prey, and you save yourself money, time and stress:

failed signals2
Market Noise: High-frequency and quant algorithm traders hurt retail day-traders

With the advent of high-frequency and quantitative algorithmic trading, we have intra-day charts that are full of false-signals and what I like to call “market noise”. A retail day-trader in today’s markets has a much tougher time trying to turn a profit than they did even about 10 years ago before all this high-frequency computer trading was so prevalent.  These high-frequency traders have what is essentially an “unfair” edge because they see the data that we see but a lot sooner. (you can read an article later about high frequency trading here). This type of trading has really changed the “nature” of intra-day charts from what they used to be, making them more erratic and less predictable, which obviously makes it a lot harder for the average retail day-trader to read the chart…

Note all the “noise” on this chart…it’s a 5 minute chart and is only showing about a 15 pip range…this is a very messy and difficult chart to try and trade…notice all the failed signals and “shake outs” that occurred…this type of trading will chop your account to pieces very fast

5min

This is another reason I really hate day-trading; who wants to try to sift through a sea of false-signals and market noise when you can so easily “smooth” it all out by looking at the higher time frame charts? As some of you know, I only teach and trade on time frames above the 1 hour, and even the 1 hour is not a time frame I personally trade very often. The 4 hour and daily time frames are my favorite, and I really consider anything below the 1 hour to be trading account “suicide”.
Filter out the “B.S.”

Day-trading ingrains and reinforces the “more is better” mindset which is basically gambling, instead of the “less is more” approach of swing trading the higher time frames. As we have seen, today’s retail day-trader is up against some pretty stiff competition in the form of super computers and algorithms that are programmed by math “wizards”. Why waste your time and fry your nerves trying to compete against such players with this type of unfair advantage when there is a much easier and more lucrative way to trade?

This is why I trade the 4 hour and daily charts; they filter out all the “B.S.” that happens on the small time frames as a result of all these super-computer-math-wiz-algorithms. I guess if I really had to explain the difference between day-trading and higher time frame swing trading it would be this; work smarter, not harder. Trading on the higher time frames and ignoring all the chop and “B.S” that day-traders try to deal with is really how you trade smarter. If you want more training and instruction on how to trade “smarter” on the higher time frames, checkout my Forex trading course and members community for more info.

Good trading, Nial Fuller
5
nialfuller
About Nial Fuller

Nial Fuller is a Professional Trader & Author who is considered ‘The Authority’ on Price Action Trading. He has a monthly readership of 250,000+ traders and has taught 15,000+ students since 2008. Checkout Nial’s Forex Course here.
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123 Comments

    David says:   
    June 14, 2015 at 2:33 pm   

    Nial, I can tell you are versed in the fx market and a very good businessman as well. After reading this article and comments I wanted to share my thoughts on a few things you wrote. First and foremost, intraday traders( good ones) do make money on a consistent basis and most do not only trade one time frame. Specializing is also a key to one’s success in this business; being able to spot a probable trade in any time frame is just as innate a quality that makes one profitable in predominantly one – sometimes you can’t teach this.

    Volatility or noise, whatever name you use, it is something that is needed and is capitalized on. Here’s the reality of all that noise, it actually makes the trending price action. It’s all transpires into the different time frames and makes the market tradeable.

    Ultimately, I don’t disagree that a beginner isn’t going to have a difficult road trading. People should understand this…the 98 percent of traders that don’t make money in the markets, didn’t make money in any of the time frames.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        June 14, 2015 at 3:58 pm   

        David, all good comments. To be frank with you, most day traders or high frequency traders lose the average of the spread on every trade, that is usually 1.5 to 2 pips per trade round trip. The more you trade the more you lose, all brokers know this and that is what brokers rely on. I have plenty of contacts inside the industry that provide me with the statistics and I can tell you that 99% + of all clients who attempt day trading or high frequency trading lose alot of money. Those that tend to make money are position traders and those who look to hold trades over longer hold periods (multiple days, weeks or months). I agree some traders with skill and experience can make money day trading, but it’s the hardest way to trade and the odds are stacked against you because of the price spread on each transaction.
        Reply
    Daniel says:   
    July 2, 2014 at 8:05 pm   

    It always makes me laugh when I meet people who are just getting into trading and they boldly state that you can make lots of money daytrading for just an hour or so per day. Then they give me examples of people who are selling courses stating that they make 1000s of pips per week etc. These newbies dont have any chance and are just getting taken to the cleaners.

    Knowing what I know now about higher timeframes I would never ever go onto anything lower than a 4HR chart. In fact on MT5 I have D1/H12/H8/H6/H4 and have removed the rest from sight.

    This is all I need to give me a decent % per year and am already up 37% of my account since the start of the year.

    Higher Time Frame trading rocks!!!
    Reply
    Zain says:   
    April 24, 2014 at 10:55 pm   

    DAY trading is very very risky specially for newbies ,,, Because they do not know market flow … Market is very un-predictable no body know when market go opposite … So i personally suggest every newbie practice on weekly or 2 3 days trading Chart. Which make you a real and long term trader… Thanks
    Reply
    Ethanmichel says:   
    January 25, 2014 at 3:19 pm   

    Good one, it will be more informative for traders…Thank u.
    Reply
    Wibowo says:   
    September 28, 2013 at 7:23 am   

    Intraday Trading is basically a High Cost & Effort Trading Activity to make money in Forex Market. And in any period of time the End Result is not always better than Daily Trading. I agree with this Good Article. Very Good NIAL ….
    Reply
    Marcin says:   
    September 7, 2013 at 9:00 pm   

    There is no such thing as stop hunting in the market. It is normal market behaviour of seaking liquidity.
    It safe to trade with higher timeframe perspective in mind while 15 or 30 min chart is used, where you can spot areas of high liquidity and market reaction.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        September 7, 2013 at 11:25 pm   

        Marcin. I am sorry but I strongly disagree with you…. Stop hunting or stop running is a very real concept and happens every day in the markets. I do agree in part that market looks for ‘liquidity’as you have suggested, but I don’t believe this is the same concept as stop hunting. They are 2 unique market phenomena.
        Reply
            Dana says:   
            September 19, 2014 at 2:40 am   

            definitely stop hunting in equities-i was trading a stock that hadnt moved 10 cents in 30 minutes-short 13.01-stop-13.11-took 34 seconds for my stop to be hit and 1 minute later stock was at 12.91-definitely algo stop hunter got nice short in-equity now at 12.71 2 hrs later with nevra retrace to 13.10
            Reply
    nihal bhat says:   
    March 23, 2013 at 1:57 pm   

    day trading is okay for 15min charts and above. under 15min and you have to keep checking the screen frequently resulting in addiction and emotions in trades
    Reply
    oyedeji muyiwa says:   
    February 27, 2013 at 11:20 pm   

    Nice one thumbs up for you.
    Reply
    Tommy says:   
    February 16, 2013 at 6:04 am   

    Great article again and again , thank you for it smile
    Reply
    Javier says:   
    February 1, 2013 at 2:35 am   

    Excellent lesson Nial !!!!
    Very clever and smart concepts what you exhibit
    Best regards
    Javier

    From Argentina
    Reply
    FX50pips says:   
    January 29, 2013 at 7:30 pm   

    nice article Nial, in fact this is actually how i do my trading is very easy and simple to trade this way yet come out with a huge profit. so why stress yourself with baseless effort to make money quick? patients is the only ingredient that you need to do this…. believe me you can be extremely successful trading this simple way….
    Reply
    Olatunde ademola says:   
    January 29, 2013 at 1:46 am   

    pls continue the good work
    Reply
    Andrew says:   
    January 26, 2013 at 6:15 pm   

    I don’t see the failed pinbars on the USDJPY – all three gave great 38-50% entries and 2:1 RR or better.
    Reply
    Taffy says:   
    January 25, 2013 at 8:01 pm   

    Great article Nial, you can safely rate this as one of your best. I agree with you especially on the point that there are “stop hunters” out there and there is no point competing with them when you can lessen their impact on your account.

    Cheers,
    Reply
    semajio says:   
    January 25, 2013 at 8:57 am   

    Nail, you have nailed it again. The more traders that heed these words the better.
    Reply
    mbongeni says:   
    January 24, 2013 at 6:34 pm   

    Thanks Nial for your vast knowledge about trading Forex,soon I will be enroling on Foex Trading course.
    Reply
    Eve says:   
    January 23, 2013 at 11:50 pm   

    Yeah I am already find out that I am really tired of day trading, trading daily chart is more less calm and stresles but you also need a time and nerves to play out to your way.

    Nial, how would you compare trading (day, swing, momentum,…)with performance of some professional sportsman? They have ages where they are in very good performance and than after some time they can`t compete any more?
    Reply
    s.bala says:   
    January 23, 2013 at 3:05 pm   

    Thanks Nial, You are THE MAN.
    Great guidance.
    Reply
    Czarek says:   
    January 22, 2013 at 12:14 am   

    Daytrading is crazy. I tried some, didn’t demolish my account (really had good periods making some money) but realized that this is not trading at all! This is time consuming, addictive and mentally exhausting. Even when you make money your broker make even more, and it’s so absorbing that one moment you hate this. Stops are hit so often that you are on emotional rollercoaster.

    Absolutely agree with Nial. One can daytrade from time to time for fun, but as a trading method it’s not best idea. Instead I like this idea of minimalistic, “purist” trading, and I hope to become succesful trader eventually. Or better to say “risk manager”. Idea that trading can be peaceful and that “less can be more” really opened my eyes. I feel that mystery of good trading lies in psychology and emotional aspects of human nature. Thanks to Nail for conducting us this way. Hope this is right path.
    Reply
    josem says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 6:38 pm   

    I would like to analyze this question from the standpoint of time / reward only and get some more concrete parameters. if you are a swing trader you will spend an average of 1 hour per day to analyze 5 times the 4H chart, and may cover some 10 markets as I do. day traders spend at least 8 hours a day glued to the screen, if not 12 or more hours following at most two or three markets. then a day trader will spend at least 8x longer , covering about 1/3 of markets than a swing trader. even if he is a successful day trader, I doubt that the results are proportional to the time he spends and lower quality of life !!!
    Reply
    Ugochukwu says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 6:14 pm   

    I,m richly inspired by your honest experiences which you share with us all the times.God will never let you down
    Reply
    Tim says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 2:01 pm   

    For various reasons, the shorter the time frames the lower the signal to noise ratio. This makes setups more difficult to spot and less reliable. Providing there is reasonable liquidity (currency majors even on 5 minute charts normally provide this), you will still get strong and valid set ups on short time frames. The problem is that you may have to wait hours and sometimes even days for them to occur and that is psychologically very difficult to handle. Most short term traders become impatient and finish up overtrading. A few, people with the necessary skill and discipline are able to consistently trade these timeframes but in my experience it is the most difficult as well as the most physically and mentally exhausting form of trading that you can undertake.

    An hour or two of scalping, once or twice a week however is terrific practice and may help to keep you sharp and on your trading toes.
    Reply
    Dennis from Orlando says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 10:34 am   

    Trying to call the next move on a 5 min chart is like in a sporting event trying to predict who will win the first 5 min of the 3rd quarter. You are just guessing. Best to stick with daily charts and only trade reversals and breakouts
    Reply
    Matthew Godfrey says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 6:19 am   

    I thoroughly agree Nial. I think people day trade to satisfy an emptiness that doesn’t have much to do with making money. As a person with a tendency towards addiction I can see the appeal of day trading and strangely I can see how it could even be oddly comforting to loose money. Your trading paradigm weeds out many of the features that make trading something other than a money trading venture (e.g. it’s not fast, you don’t watch the screen and experience the highs and lows etc). I’ve been a member for about 3 months and I teade pin bars (at significant levels etc) on four of the majors on the day chart on a demo account. I’ll be going live in the coming months.
    Reply
    Tilip Kumar says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 3:02 am   

    Well said
    Reply
    SLIVESTER says:   
    January 21, 2013 at 1:09 am   

    thanks a lot nial…trading in high time frame is my chances to change my future…thanks for the best article…
    Reply
    Tim A says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 8:46 pm   

    I wish Nial could’ve shown a normal Daily chart instead of a perfect one without fakeouts. If what he said is true he doesn’t need to exaggerate. I do agree that the lower timeframes are a heck of a lot more noisy, but Daily charts also have their false stopouts. Many of the Fakeys and Pin bars on the Daily took someone out before reversing, lets not kid ourselves that Dailies are free from this. Otherwise newbies are being mislead just the same.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        January 21, 2013 at 12:30 pm   

        Tim
        I will add more examples to suggest daily charts experience ‘less stop hunts’ than intraday charts. I agree, no chart or method will remove the chance of ‘stop hunting’ etc.
        Reply
    Jeriah says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 8:41 pm   

    I love the explanation on stop hunting. Thanks!
    Reply
    thompson says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 6:47 pm   

    this is true
    Reply
    BSmart says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 12:14 pm   

    Absolutely. Thank you for this article.
    Reply
    RD says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 10:16 am   

    Super article, Nial. I thought I would jump into the mix on this one. I doubled my Scottrade stock account in 2007 trading off the daily charts ( bull market ). I retired from my plastering career and day traded the stock and futures markets in 2008 using 5 minute charts. What an emotional and wild ride that was. By year’s end I literally fought to break even in one of the most unruly bear markets in history( moral victory, but not so great for paying the bills ). I realized that my temperment was not suited for day trading at all. One’s emotional control and discipline has got to become so focused– almost robotic by nature in order to succeed. I will admit, there are professionals who make an excellent living at it, but they are indeed few and far between. Amen to daily charts and trading relatively infrequently and not being glued to the computer monitor . . .

    Cheers,
    RD
    Reply
    Amitabh says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 6:36 am   

    Depends on how you define “day trading”. I do it, but I usually look for 1 trade a day, and don’t necessarily close out by end of day. I use a top-down approach like you stated–Daily chart is key.

    At the same time, I wouldn’t write off the possibility of someone who trades many times per day off the 15 min chart or whatever; I still think you need the top-down approach to do so–to more accurately identify the trend.
    Reply
    Yusuf Hammed says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 4:54 am   

    Great Ideal
    Reply
    water says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 4:04 am   

    Superb revelation .No body else other than One and only one Nial fuller will do it .I was trapped by the magic of day trading.Today onwards I quit day trading once and for ever.
    Reply
    vip says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 2:46 am   

    i love trading the 4 hour charts to XD.
    Reply
    Graham says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 1:29 am   

    Nial, I am a 3 year old trader. I have 3 blown accounts in my past. But this last one, 3 months old now is growing nicely. And the only reason it is grow is that I stopped using a live data feed. I use ninjatrader platform that gives me end of day data only. My trading plan I have adopted from your videos you make available for free on youtube. This article highlights exactly why and how my last 3 accounts got blown, they NEVER GOT IN THE MONEY even. hahaha, day trading its a joke. I will wait till the end of day to see what price did that day. And I am often in trades that last several days , especially lately.
    Cheers.
    Reply
    dustin says:   
    January 20, 2013 at 12:56 am   

    I agree with u 50%! as i started trading 4 years ago i was Day trader for 2 years i was break even most of the time, then i started to trade the bigger time frames, daily charts i make using trading on the daily average. Etween 400 and 1200 pips a month.but there is a problem on the day trading the STOP LOSS is really big number 2 u neex to have big capital to make life from it …… anothere reason if the market is not trending for long time could expand for several months u cant trade well …. Now about trading as day trader in m opinion every one can make money on it under some conditions : 1 – follow the bigger time frames
    2- once u hit the first target which is mostof the time not more than 30 pips take ur profit
    Reply
    Jose says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 10:45 pm   

    Day-trading CAN be very profitable if you can stay glued to your charts 24/7. I have done it in the past BUT there’s a price to pay in terms of the stress involved. Also, if you make a mistake it can be a slippery road to a world of pain… If you want a normal life without stress stick to swing trading the H4 or daily charts per Nial’s advice.
    Reply
    Nuno Barbosa says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 10:23 pm   

    Thanks Nial, once again.
    Great article.
    I loved when you wrote: “Have you ever noticed how if you try to trade intra-day the market tends to hit your stop and then reverse back in the direction of your initial position?”
    This happened to me most of the time in day trading.
    Trading higher time frame charts and looking for price action is what suits me best.
    Thanks for everything you are doing.
    Keep the good work.
    Regards from Portugal.
    Reply
    James Mboho says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 9:13 pm   

    personally, i have raised a $10 account to $213 day-trading 15 min time frame for three weeks though it was very very stressful. That was at my early stage of my trading carrier. it was fund. Base on this achievement, i was carried away and after sometime i fail to follow my trading rules and strategy. The moment i started neglecting and disobeying my trading rules, i was no longer profitable trading smaller time frame. i say this because smaller time frame is very profitable if a well thought out strategy/ trading rules is strictly followed. But the disadvantages are that, it is very stressful, high emotion is involve and as a matter of fact once health is at stake. I even know of a professional who trades one minute time frame. Though he is make the money but he is paying with his health – high-blood pressure and deteriorating eye sight.

    Nail, i buy your idea. Ever since i started trading 4hrs and daily time frame, i feel relaxed, less stress, i make consistent profit and have time for other things. I am not condemning the lower time frame. Lower time frame works if a well thought out strategy/ trading rules are strictly followed. it all depends on individual who is ready to give what it takes to be successful. so in a null shell, whatever time frame one trades, one should carefully weigh the pros and coin. But for me 4 hrs and Daily is the best.

    Thanks for your insightful articles. you are great. keep the good work alive. Have a nice day.
    Reply
    Luke says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 8:59 pm   

    Do you want to be a cool day trader that sits at his pc all day, or a swing trader that can cover 16 instruments in 30 min on the daily chart then spend time with ur kids or play golf? I know what I chose.
    Reply
    sonny says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 7:06 pm   

    Is true “Stop Hunting ” happens all the time. In other articles I have read on the net, some refer to it as “Search and Destroy”. Anyway another great article by the Lord. Have a nice weekend and Allah Ma’ak.
    Reply
    Aliyu Mohammed says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 4:16 pm   

    I hv suffered a lot of losses in Day-trading. I lost nt less than $15000 in daily trading, and I can nt repeat that nonsense , I hv learn a great lesson of my life.I cant easily 4get that loss. Since I lost my entire capital, I cant trade again. Even if am to re-start forex trading it can nt be on daily basis trading. I will be trading on monthy or quartely basis. Thanks I appreciate this lesson is a great one.
    Reply
    Colin says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:31 pm   

    Hi Nial. Interesting article. Question… are you suggesting that high probability setups do not present intraday? The failed setups you noted on the JPYUSD chart were indeed failures, but there were others that would have yielded a perfectly good intraday result.

    Also, if I am not mistaken, the 5m EURUSD chart you chose as an example reflected one of the least active time periods for the pair on any day, thus the narrow range is to be expected. I can tell you from experience there is plenty of tradeable movement in the pair during the hours the UK/European/US cash equity markets are open.

    To be clear, I certainly agree beginners should focus on the higher timeframes while learning. But suggesting that trading intraday is inherently bad goes a bit far in my opinion.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        January 21, 2013 at 12:37 pm   

        Colin
        Most people that blow up a trading account are day trading/over trading/gambling on shorter time frames. I wrote this article to warn people of the dangers and realities of intraday trading. Only a very small % of traders will ever become good day traders, I would prefer to teach my students a different trading approach, which is why I teach a patient trading strategy on the 4 hour and daily charts.
        Reply
    Anthony says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:16 pm   

    If there is one thing i take home from this It’s the Less is More mindset.
    As well as being a trading account “suicide” Day trading can be detrimental to once’s health.
    Reply
    Aaron says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 11:55 am   

    Definitely true. 400 of us trade daily timeframes, make a killing every year and take all of 10 minutes a day to do so. But day traders will always be there because, human nature never changes. Cheers!
    Reply
    KRISTOFA OKENTA says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 10:49 am   

    I AM BLESSED BY EACH OF YOUR POSTS. THANK YOU Prof
    Reply
    Radu says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 9:28 am   

    Stop Hunting is made by brokers. I have 3 monitors and 3 MT4 on different account and different broker and I can see that.
    A broker who wide spreads more than 2 pips before economic news release is not a fair broker. I saw 10 pips spread on EURUSD before NFP on one broker.
    My advice is to open live accounts but not fund them only after at least one month of behavior monitoring.

    For above article, I can say that to be able to trade on Daily charts we need more money because we need wide stops and can’t risk more than 2-3 % of accounts equity in a trade.
    Till then I’ll make my pips on 5 min TF.
    Excuse my english.
    All the best.
    Reply
    Lyte says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 8:05 am   

    Thanks Nial. Today’s lesson only further confirms the importance of using higher time frames like the daily and the four hour charts. Trading these higher time frames takes out the stress gaining a better result by letting the market do the work.
    Reply
    Mytrader says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 7:00 am   

    Niall, thank you very much for sharing your experience with us. I really appreciate your explanations. Would you still decide to trade on ‘Price Action’, ‘Pinbars’, ‘Fakey’, etc set ups, on the Daily charts?
    Reply
    Eric says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 6:37 am   

    This is a very interesting article. I am playing around with a trading plan that I call the “momentum method”. I was testing it using a very tight stop (usually around 10 PIPs). I then was curious to see if I would make money by applying the same money management principles that I use for the pinbar setup on the daily and the 4 hour. I found it very interesting that I got stopped out about 85 percent of the time. I have since altered my “momentum method” so that there is much more room for price to “wiggle” and have been much more successfull. Stopped hunting definately played a role into why my original plan failed.
    Reply
    Chuks says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 5:21 am   

    To an extent I agree with the general point of the article that trading off the higher time frames would generally be more profitable. I want to point out that Trading h4 is technically day trading… Though I do my analysis top-down, I still find the lower frames especially important for near perfect entries in direction of higher frame trends and traders who manage to discover this unique importance will benefit more especially for most retailers who start off with low funds. Not everyone enjoys the feeling of 100-pips-against-you-then-in-you-favor experiences of entering off the higher time frames that we see sometimes.
    At the end of the day, it is all about mindset and what you want the lower time frames to do for you. For me, they serve best for entries.

    Stop hunting is real and undeniable. However, it is not exclusive to lower time frames. Liquidity pool is higher on the higher time frames and surely will incur deeper losses should one experience it. What happens in the day trading time frames is that most traders are completely unaware of the actual prevailing longer term trend. It makes them want to catch whatever pseudo high or low is made thereby providing other smarter traders (doesn’t have to be your broker or the big boys) with more cash to prey on.
    Traders should be advised to start their analysis from the big time frames and work their entries out on the lower ones.
    Over all, nice article but not as controversial as touted.
    Reply
    Bratislav says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 5:12 am   

    Hi Nail,
    Great text, I was trying to trade in short period of time as 5min and it is to hard to do. Im now try to do this why and thare are more Chance for success. Thank you for comment. Great regards,
    Reply
    george theodoridis says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 4:30 am   

    Hello Nial,
    I find your way very interesting and i agree that higher time frames are more reliable.I would like to ask , how we can enter on trades? after a pin bar on a sup or res we just enter and place a stop above or below the pin bar? or we are looking for change of trend in smaller time frame? this is always tricky for me .
    ps . some time the rejection in a bigger time frame is very big and the stop loss is to high so i dont have a proper risk ratio.
    Thanks a lot .
    Reply
    Ben Ajose says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 3:45 am   

    Think i like the most about this site its always confirming suspicions i have had about the Forex market trading successfully, things mainstream websites seem to overlook and discrediting many of the o so popular misconceptions about Forex

    Ben Ajose
    Reply
    Dorian says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:52 am   

    Thanks again for an insighting article Nial.

    One of the reasons you strike a cord with your community is that you’ve been there and coach from your experience. I remember day trading too, but since you introduced me to higher time frames (4hr and above) in your members course, my trading account is healthier and stress reduced.

    Many thanks.
    Reply
    Mike says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:47 am   

    I agree, day is tedious ,
    but the minute you swing trade, then you are swing investing also. charts might be cleaner but the risks can be higher.
    Reply
    lawfex says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:35 am   

    Nialllll, guess some brokers will be getting upset with u. U are the real man especially wen one considers the adrenaline pump while day trading. Thanx man
    Reply
    sean mor says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:32 am   

    I’m really glad to be part of the LTTTM community, money well spent! Another great article!
    Reply
    Swede says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:16 am   

    I love the challenge of day trading, fast and furious and when you get to the point of understanding what the market makers,brokers, institutions are looking at, you can then scalp some profit out of the market. But, really tough to get to that point and hard on your account, your emotions, your sleep patterns, your free time, your relationships.

    So, Nial I must agree overall with your summation. If you want to give up all you value in life just keep day trading. The market will eventually eat you up one way or the other.

    Great article, wish I had read it 10 years ago and saved myself a lot of pain.
    Reply
    andy says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:00 am   

    Hi Niall,
    I agree 4 hour and day trading is best but as ive said before
    i know people who make a living trading 15 minute charts.They say the main problem is people are greedy and try for too many
    pips in one go. why try for a 50 pips at £2 when you can get 10 pips at £10 a pip. As regards the stop hunters which i do think exist, you need a big stop loss but trail it or if your confident of the trend dont have a stop loss. wait for the stop hunters to take their scraps. then when trend continues
    take your 10 pip profit. do this 3 or 4 times during the day
    and Bob’s your uncle. comments please
    Reply
    jotex says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 2:00 am   

    Nial,i love this article.i was also a victim of lower time frames.every thing you said about it is really true.over-trading,over-analysis and so on.i scalp with robot,i buy signals,in fact i felt forex wasnt for people like me.i almost magine call ontill d last trade that was going against me.then,i was reading your article that talked about holy grail-daily time frame and i saw a pin bar.i had to adjust my stoploss to d pinbar bottom and leave the trade for 2 days and that was how i got into Nial Fuller’s Professional Price Action Trading.Thanks for all the quick answer to all my questions.have a wonderful weekend Nial.Cheers mate
    Reply
    Grant says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:58 am   

    thanks for that great article Nial. Agree with you totally i dont know why anyone would want to do that either
    Reply
    Daniel Gisore says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:52 am   

    Thanks Nial, it is because of your weekly education that I am still doing forex, it took me 8 months of complete failure and 3 months of reading your articles weekly and I posted a profit. Thanks and continue with the same spirit. Though I would request for an article on position placing and leveraging before entering a trade. Thank you once again.
    Reply
    rajiv says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:45 am   

    wonderful article Nial
    Reply
    Mithun says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:42 am   

    Good one Nial !!
    Reply
    Anonymous says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:29 am   

    Other than that, nice article.
    Reply
    Anonymous says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:29 am   

    Nial,

    Now that I can agree to. Major levels such as swing high/low do have stops that are hunted. But stop hunts happen on larger time frames as well, in fact even more so since the liquidity pool is generally deeper with a daily chart!

    I still can’t agree with FX brokers hunting stops. They stimply don’t have the capital to do so.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        January 19, 2013 at 1:34 am   

        Regardless of ‘who does the stop hunting’ it is a very real phenomena that occurs very often, mostly on short term timeframes.
        Reply
    joe says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:16 am   

    Thanks Nial. I’ve been studying the market and different strategies for several years now and I totaly agree with the daily and 4 hr time frame strategies. It’s alot easier and more productive . Before it was an ”ego” thing with me ”day trading” on smaller time frames . Now I want to make money. I’m sick and tired of going nowhere trading. I need the discipline of not looking at my charts every hr or so or staring for hours trying to find a setup. Nial, you make trading fun again, thanks.
    Reply
    Will_B says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 1:03 am   

    Nice article Nial smile Very true
    Reply
    Mike says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 12:53 am   

    Add “DAILY” to your trading plan…trade less make more and go get more hobbies.
    Reply
    Pliva says:   
    January 19, 2013 at 12:16 am   

    So true!
    I’m baby trader (2 weeks of an experience) and I’m still at demo accounts and stressed out when trading on M5-H1 (85% of the time). Thanks to you Nial, yesterday I decided to try H4 time frame and I was so relaxed (comparing to last 10 days) but at the same time so concentrated on my daily job/tasks. At the end, result was incredible. MY account (demo) increased more then last 10 days of trading, I made a great job on the side AND final one, I had restful sleep! Just to point out for the 3th time: I still practice demo!
    Reply
    Anonymous says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 11:49 pm   

    Regarding “Stop Hunting”… um no.

    First. Stop hunters from the “big boys” could care less about the paltry stops from the very small retail price action traders. You do not provide enough liquidity to justify such a hunt.

    Second. Brokers are NOT hunting your stops. If you believe this, I’d glady like to hear which FX broker you think has enough free capital to make such a move.
    Reply
        Nial Fuller says:   
        January 18, 2013 at 11:54 pm   

        Sorry, but I disagree “Anonymous’. Stop hunting is very real.
        The charts show this evidence. Eg: price will take out an intraday swing high/swing low where herds of traders have placed their stop losses.
        The stops are triggered and the weak longs/shorts are shaken out of the market, then the market reverses and goes in the opposite direction.
        This is a phenomena that has been happening for decades.
        Reply
            Alexander says:   
            November 17, 2013 at 1:37 am   

            Absolutely agree 100%
            Reply
    Siyabonga khanye says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 11:25 pm   

    Awesome stuff Nial…been trading the 1 hour chart with a lot of effort, sometimes not even sleeping…will definitely consider:-)
    Reply
    Jack says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 10:50 pm   

    As always very good article Nial thank you.
    Reply
    Ray says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 10:37 pm   

    Good one Nial..Right on the money
    Reply
    Simmo says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 10:28 pm   

    Brilliant article and all valid points. I began learning trading via day trading tactics and was inconsistent with winning trades on my demo account. Since using Nialls methods, knowing when to and when not to trade and using higher time frames, consistency of winning trades has improved immensely.
    Reply
    Pavel Karizek says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 10:25 pm   

    I 100% agree with Nial! I used to trade the 5-minute charts and lost 50% of my trading capital a few years ago. Why such traders like George Soros, Peter L. Brandt or William J. O’Neil do only trade off of the daily and weekly charts?! Even on the 4-hour charts, you have 6 times as much false signals as on the daily charts. I also prefer quality over quantity. Since I only trade off of the daily and weekly charts. I make 8 trades on EUR/USD, 16 trades on AUD/USD, 8 trades on USD/JPY, 4 trades on XAU/USD and 16 trades on USD/CAD on average per year.
    Reply
    Tomson says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 10:25 pm   

    Thanks for the reminder it’s needed to be said over and over again.

    I have tried it and really lost some money.
    When you first look at it it looks so easy, but it drags you in and don’t let you out again without paying for it (lost some money).
    Reply
    Damien says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:59 pm   

    I’m sorry but I don’t agree with every point. Yes the brokers make more money and you have to be a lot more active. Your first chart usdjpy 15min , all I saw was an aggressive C sell and then stop and reverse for a long all on a simple but effective ABCD pattern. If we both average 50 pips a day I will make more because my stops will be tighter which means a larger position size. I will look at pin bars and structure and fib ratios but they all have to line up at potential reversal zones. I do enjoy most of what you share, Thank you , I appreciate it, but on this subject I wont change my mind.
    Reply
    Sam says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:52 pm   

    Based on your teachings to trade like a sniper with price action strategy, i started trading on the daily TF only since last year August and I got 11 consecutive winning trades by December which skyrocketed my account from $3,000 to $8,000+ as at 4th January this yr. The 12th, which is also the current trade is already in profit heading towards my target.
    I had already sworn and taken the oath to be a higher time frame addict as long as fxtrade is concern.
    Nial, you are blessed.
    Reply
    Egbe says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:48 pm   

    Hi Nial, u suprised me today.i was choked on how this institutional traders are using math to play fast. look at this phrase from u again “As we have seen, today’s retail day-trader is up against some pretty stiff competition in the form of super computers and algorithms that are programmed by math “wizards”. Why waste your time and fry your nerves trying to compete against such players with this type of unfair advantage when there is a much easier and more lucrative way to trade?” bros, from today henceforth i said bye to 1hr and down tf tradin.
    Reply
    abdul rasheed says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:43 pm   

    All your research is just wonderful though it doesn’t quantify the difference of position call and the day trade.
    It shall be well appreciated if you do an article with winning strategy of day trade.
    Because day trade is something you feel that you are in the market.

    Many Many thanks for whatever you are doing to the trading community.

    Abdul Rasheed Mamusha
    Reply
    roberta says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:28 pm   

    Thank you Nial

    I agree with you totally only 4 hour or daily chart which ever been profitable trade for me.

    Love the article
    Reply
    Kyle Edginton says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:25 pm   

    Nial, thanks for the great article. You mention the “stop hunters”. What benefit do these big/institutional traders get from finding stop loses and stopping out the day trader? I can see it benefiting the broker because of more trades.
    Reply
    jim says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 9:08 pm   

    Agree totally. Looked at binary options recently and they are short term nightmares. How you can make money forecasting what will happen in the next 1,5,10,15,30minutes is beyond me, but I have an open mind and tried a demo account. You guessed it!!!!! I have made steady money in the last year using Nials course and only daily and 4hr charts. Please listen to him
    Reply
    Olusola says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:56 pm   

    Prof Nail.,this is an eye opener.I gain tremendously from the write up.keep it up.
    Reply
    samuel says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:51 pm   

    You can succeed in day trading if you follow a strategy that is based on achieving 10-15pips per trade times 4. However, the higher you fly , the clearer your vision.
    Reply
    phil preston says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:43 pm   

    Nial
    I know of a Proffessional intra Day trader who does Day Trade Forex. But they did tell me, their intial stop has to be 70 pips – why? Because, as you said Brokers have taken the traders stop out!!! It’s only when they are up 20-30 pips, they are able to bring the stop down considerably to avoid such a big potential stop loss.
    Although I agree with you about clarity in trading. Not all day traders lose – some make a fortune. We don’t get to hear about them, because 90% of them lose – Period!! Lets not pretend though Daily time frames are the Holy Grail. For every winner in trading there is a loser. Risk reward is the holy grail period!!! Most Day Traders Overtrade. I believe sucessful trading is based on the pychology of the trader – not the time frame traded. When someone can show me there are no succesful day traders out there at all – Then I stand by that statement!! Cheers
    Reply
    Charlie Boomer says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:29 pm   

    Hi Nial,
    You are spot on mate. It’s taken me a lot of dollars to realise the truth about the shorter time frames, i know a few of the bigger traders think along the same lines.It’s the power of the greed factor that drives most people to trade the lower time frames. Keep up the good work Nial. loved the article!
    Reply
    Paul says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:29 pm   

    I don’t think Sergii’s post above should be ignored. Some traders do make a consistent return on the smaller time frames

    However, Nials message is just ‘why bother’?

    You can trade less frequently, with considerably less screen time on the higher time-frames, with much larger stops (and therefore much smaller lots / or ‘stakes’) and end the month with just as much if not more profit in your trading account
    Trading is not the same as conventional ‘work’ it does not reward you for the number of hours you put in, but for the quality and consistency of the decisions you make and subsequent actions you take

    I personally like to look at the weekly and daily time-frames to find key levels and obvious trends. Then use the lower (4 hour and occasionally 1 hour) ‘price action’ candle formations to provide trade entry and stop levels, with targets being pre-decided from the weekly and daily time-frame.
    This often results in entry’s that are consistent with those that would have been utilised, had I just use Nials 50% re-tracement of the daily candle strategy, so I am moving towards doing this and therefore not concerning myself with the necessity to monitor the 4 hour of 1 hour charts.

    The longer I spend monitoring the charts, the more I want to be ‘in’ a trade. This does not aid sound decision making!

    have a great weekend Nial and every one that follows you. For those in the UK, keep warm & safe

    best
    Paul
    Reply
    JOHN NNY BHAI says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:18 pm   

    Thats right day trading sucks ,i lost lots of money by day trading but now i only trade with 4h and daily chart and have much more good profitable trades than day trADING.
    Reply
    Karl says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:05 pm   

    Nice one…
    Reply
    Maniam says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 8:04 pm   

    Dear Nial,
    I agree what u said in this article.
    Its a very useful article for all new traders.
    Good luck and Thanks for your support.

    Have a nice day.
    Maniam
    Reply
    Venkat says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:46 pm   

    FANTASTIC Article….as always….
    Reply
    Euan says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:32 pm   

    Nial I think that this is very true and more so about todays choppy market. Having said that trading the longer time frames is for me more taxing as in an 8 hr day I get 2 to 3 candles, then if there is a movement in the 12 – 16 hours I am away I miss the trade, and they are few and far between these days. The daily time frames are far more difficult to read and the odds of getting it right for me are not good.
    My solution to this is the 1 hour charts with wide SL and TP with very low contracts that can take up to 3 – 4 days sometimes.
    Cheers
    Euan
    Reply
    PERI says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:22 pm   

    Thank you for your Great Article !

    Let us (our forum members)take an OATH to adhere to the bigger time frames of 4 hours and above from now onwards !
    Reply
    robert card says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:21 pm   

    Ya hit it on the head again Nial. I’ve been following your site since late last fall and have had 3 of my best months (and less stressed) that I have had in my 3 years trading. I can never thank you enough!

    Robert card
    Appleton WI, USA
    Reply
    jusmijo says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:14 pm   

    Awesome! Thanks!
    Reply
    Mark says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:10 pm   

    Couldn’t agree more Nial.

    Day trading was what I tried to do at first because I thought it was cool and less risk because of smaller stops however once you learn about position sizing you realise this is not the case.

    Even the 4hr has nothing on a daily chart in my opinion. Although it can provide nice entries if used in conjunction with a daily chart.

    As you say, day trading is not cool, it’s stressful as hell. I’d much rather browse my charts for 10 minutes at the close of the day and place a set. & forget trade on the daily.
    Reply
    Mehdi says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 7:10 pm   

    Absolute truth, thanks a million for the extremely precious article.
    Reply
    Sergii says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:58 pm   

    Hi Nial.
    I do agree with what you said about the difficulties of day trading. Indeed, having day traded myself for three months I know it is really tough to make a consistent profit. However, it does not mean day trading should be avoided by anyone. For each person there exists a trading style which fits his/her psychology. One of the goals for starting traders is to find the right approach to trading in which he/she is likely to make considerable improvement to become consistently profitable. There is no harm in trying, there is harm in keeping your mind closed.

    Thank you for very much for the great website.
    Reply
    edge5 says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:50 pm   

    Hi Nial,

    Do you see a risk that H4 and D1 timeframes also become harder to trade because of HFT?

    Thank you for what you are doing to help people become profitable traders. Cheers.
    Reply
    horlique says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:49 pm   

    I only trade the daily chart on the major pairs. I trade 4hours/daily chart on goldusd and silverusd. I really love the pin bars on the daily chart. Daily chart is the best chart for price action. My news trading + pin bar price action= my trading arsenal. Thanks alot. Hows is Australia n the crocs.
    Reply
    Jim says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:48 pm   

    You’re telling the truth. I know from personal experience.
    Reply
    Kneath Philippart says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:48 pm   

    Always known / believed it – but haven’t had the cojones to make the change to the bigger T/F’s. I think now is the time as I am noticing their value as time progresses.

    Kneath
    Reply
    krishna says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:40 pm   

    thanks a lot for your mind blowing suggestion .i am sure i must follow this lesson.
    Reply
    Alan says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:39 pm   

    I’m constantly fighting being drawn to the dark side i.e. short time frames. Your timely article reminds me of the perils of short term trading. Thank you.
    Reply
    Gosta Strom says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:29 pm   

    Thanks Nail. I have argued with my self for a long time to
    stop using lower time frames. Just a few days ago I started to do as you teaches. Thanks Nail
    Reply
    george theodoridis says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:15 pm   

    Hello Nial,

    I find your way very interesting and i agree that higher time frames are more reliable.I would like to ask , how we can enter on trades? after a pin bar on a sup or res we just enter and place a stop above or below the pin bar? or we are looking for change of trend in smaller time frame? this is always tricky for me .

    ps . some time the rejection in a bigger time frame is very big and the stop loss is to high so i dont have a proper risk ratio.

    Thanks a lot .
    Reply
    Max Champion says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:12 pm   

    Thanks A lot of stuff i knew about but never understood
    Very Very helpfull.
    Reply
    Libs says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:10 pm   

    I hate day trading as well, much easier and less stressful to trade higher time frames. Even in the higher time frames I would find it difficult to know where to put my stop loss. Refer to AUD/USD on daily chart. Would you opt not to trade this considering it’s choppy every day ? I can sense that the AUD is falling and it makes sense to go short but the daily time frame is so unpredictable. You have a bullish pin bar followed by a strong bearish candle. What is your recommendation on trading these choppy markets in terms of risk? Thanks Nial your emails are such a wealth of knowledge to me.
    Reply
    siva says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:04 pm   

    every traders must read and follow this message… dont forget.. dont trade on low time frame… thank you so much nial… you are great …god bless you
    Reply
    Cheetu says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 6:03 pm   

    Very Very nice article Nial smile

    I will change my plan of execution and save tons of time and efforts, efforts worth much more.

    -C
    Reply
    david NG says:   
    January 18, 2013 at 5:50 pm   

    awesome revelation! thanks Nial.
    Reply

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- See more at: http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/why-i-hate-day-trading#sthash.0Rw9Yf12.dpuf

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

EURJPY grid


http://s23.postimg.org/urysgc7mf/Dave_M_0216.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

http://s20.postimg.org/o327vqn2x/image.jpg

http://s20.postimg.org/mpf6e6d7d/image.jpg

http://s20.postimg.org/y31ppdnq1/image.jpg

http://s20.postimg.org/xesv6fp09/image.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

http://s20.postimg.org/aaaxxmq1l/Additional_Questions_For_Your_Forex_Broker.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

The Canadian Dollar is in a terrible mess.

Today the Loonie is trading below 70 cents and there is no bottom in sight.

Food rices in Canada are skyrocketing as much of the food is imported.

Canada is in trouble!


http://s20.postimg.org/8j0clp07t/Untitled_design.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Blaiserboy wrote:

The Canadian Dollar is in a terrible mess.

Today the Loonie is trading below 70 cents and there is no bottom in sight.

Food rices in Canada are skyrocketing as much of the food is imported.

Canada is in trouble!

Because of cheap oil?

Re: Dave's Ramblings

oil and no other major exports

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

GBPCHF

Some doubts are arising as to whether Britain should leave the European Union and that is causing banks to foresee a large drop, to as low as 1.26 eventually.

The pair saw its 50 moving average cross below the 200 moving average late in the day.

I wonder when it will arrest the downward trend.


http://s20.postimg.org/nl8y8x5qx/GBPCHF.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

FTSE has Bullish  Alt Three Drives

This is a 4 hour chart and could be worth watching, there may be a significant advance in coming days.



http://s20.postimg.org/l8pguz1p5/Untitled_design_1.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Crude Oil

There may be some relief ahead from the oil disaster

The daily chart has developed a Bullish AB=CD pattern which may bode well for a price recovery


http://s20.postimg.org/fbmigwift/Maybe_Light_At_The_End_Of_The_Tunnel.jpg

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

The 5 Steps to becoming a trader

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then - lets get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.


You may have initial success, and thats even worse - cos it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.


You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onth the next stage.

Step Two - Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realise that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they cant be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.


You might even approach a 'guru' like Rob Booker or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader(usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you wont win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.


This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.


What may suprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.


By the way - they are real figures, not just some ive picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game dont think its plain sailing from there.


Iv had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more that 3 years - if you think you know better then ask on a board for someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure i guess there will be exceptions to the rle - but i havent met any yet.


Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood

One day - im a split second moment you will enter stage 3.

Step 3 - The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.


Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading


You start to work just one system that you mold to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.


You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.


You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.

You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 - Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five - Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesn't make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.


You see the newbies in the forum shouting 'go dollar go' as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years ago now.

This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.


Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being influenced at all.


All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesnt change - it just gets better - you now have what women call 'intuition'

You can now say with your head held high "I'm a currency trader" but to be honest you dont even bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.


I hope youve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully youve identified with some points in here.


Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isnt ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.


The losers are those who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn't see the obvious - a kind of "this is the way i see it and that's that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.


I'm happy to tell you that the reason I started trading was because of the 'get rich quick' mindset. Just that now i see it as 'get rich slow'

If you're thinking about giving up i have one piece of advice for you ....

Ask yourself the question "how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?

Take care and good trading to you all.

copied from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3156

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
For the most part of May 2016, EURUSD was in a downtrend. On June 3, a strong bullish breakout led to a bullish signal, but price was unable to continue moving up continuously in the following week, which was last week. Price simply went up 50 pips, hit the resistance line at 1.1400 and then nosedived. This has forced the market into a neutral territory, since the bullish gains of June 3 had been rendered useless by the strong bearish correction that took place within June 9 and 10 (whereas bears cannot claim any dominance until price goes below the resistance line at 1.1150). It is likely that EURUSD would continue to go downwards this week, though the bias may not turn bearish until the resistance line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside. For the bias to turn bullish again, price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair decline 180 pips last week, going briefly below the support level at 0.9600 before closing above that support level. Since June 3, 2016, price has declined by 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9577. The support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500 are the next targets for bears this week. Any movement above the resistance level at 0.9800 would put the bearish outlook in a precarious position.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Contrary to expectation, Cable moved south by 460 pips last week, after testing the distribution territory at 1.4650. Prior to this, price moved upwards by 260 pips between Monday and Tuesday. It has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. This week, GBP might behave like it did last week: We would witness strong bullish and bearish movements.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/JPY merely went flat throughout last week. Even the faint bullish attempt that was seen on Monday and Tuesday meant nothing when compared to the ongoing bearish outlook. There is a possibility that JPY pairs would trend downwards this week, and so, USDJPY might go further south to test the demand levels at 106.00 and 105.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Between June 6 and 7, this cross went upwards close to 170 pips, but further rally was rejected at the supply zone at 122.50. From that zone, price went down 250 pips, to close at 120.37 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further decline could be witnessed this week. Therefore, the demand zones at 120.00 and 110.00 would be interesting to watch.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Even after all these years, I still feel passionate about trading. I love trying to find profit opportunities. It's a great achievement when you can beat the pros.” - Jay McGivney

Source: www.tallinex.com

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....

Re: Dave's Ramblings

A couple articles re artificial intelligence.

http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profi … om-forests

http://readwrite.com/2016/10/17/why-art … nlock-iot/

My 'secret' goal is to push EA Studio until I can net 3000 pips per day....