Date : 1st September 2021.

Market Update – September 1.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

European bond markets and Eurozone peripherals in particular sold off yesterday, as more ECB officials flagged the possibility of a tapering announcement next week and it seems pretty certain now that the ECB will start to take the foot off the accelerator as it revises its growth forecast upwards once again. Activity is now expected to reach pre-crisis levels as soon as the end of this year, and fiscal support should increase, which reduces the need for central bank support to some extent at least. Central bank officials will stress the very dovish guidance on the rate outlook though in order to avoid a taper tantrum.

Bonds in Australia and Zealand underperformed and sold off sharply as traders assess the economic outlook against the background of virus developments.

Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates. GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves.

Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI was revised higher and continues to signal expansion.

USD (USDIndex 92.75) strengthened.

Equities are mixed as GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.5%, alongside gains in US futures, which is encouraging. China’s tech stocks shake off risks.

EURand Sterling are lower against the Dollar, but it is the CHF that is mostly under pressure this morning.

USOil is trading at $68.92 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. (Saudi struggling to increase supply, Shrinking US stockpiles, a rebound in Indian demand China’s outbreak.

Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

European Open – German retail sales corrected -5.1% m/m in July, a much more pronounced correction than anticipated, largely related to the ebb and flow of virus developments and restrictions.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the outlook, and focus on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK. Eurozone unemployment data for July are also due. In the US, we have ADP and ISM data.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Spikes to 2-week highs to 80.82 from 78.00 lows. Faster MAs aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram are rising strongly. RSI at 70 and rising. H1 ATR 0.096, Daily ATR 0.733.   

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd September 2021.

Market Update – September 3 – NFP day.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

Today’s employment report is eagerly awaited for directional purposes. The markets traded very quietly Thursday, though with a bullish bias. Treasury yields finished marginally lower with the 10-year just under 1.30%.  The mix of data had little impact, though the improvement in claims did underpin an upbeat outlook into the jobs numbers, even as the factory and trade data, along with the already seen weakness in vehicle sales, weighed heavily on Q3 GDP projections.

Action on Wall Street was equally light and range-bound, though, the USA500 and the USA100 made still more new highs.
Data releases in Asia highlighted the impact of virus developments on the services sector in particular – Asian stock markets have moved higher and stocks across China, Japan and Australia are poised for a weekly rise, despite gloomy data.

The fact that the JPN225 still rallied nearly 2% and the ASX is up 0.5% shows how reliant markets are on central bank support.

GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.076% and 0.014% respectively.

USD (USDIndex 92.16) extending 22-day support.

USOil extended to $69.78.

Gold steadied to 1,803-1,817.

Today – The calendar includes the final PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that high vaccination rates limit the impact of the rapidly spreading delta variant. Eurozone retail sales and ISM Services PMI are also due. The highlight of the day is the NFP number.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.26%) Broke 28-day Support. Faster MAs aligned lower with MACD resuming its decline, Stochastic below 20 and RSI at 31.80, all  suggesting a decline in the short term. H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.01062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th September 2021.

Market Update – September 7 – Dovish RBA to buy Bonds for longer.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

USD (USDIndex 92.18) continues at lows following NFP headline miss (pushed to 91.91) – although rest of report was strong; taper expectations slipping to Nov-Dec.

Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.322%), while
Equities slipped ahead of long weekend  (USA500 -0.03% @ 4535, FUTS at 4538 now). Nikkei + 2% looks like Covid Minister (Taro Kono) will be new PM.

USOil crashes following price cuts from Saudi Arabia to Asian customers. From $70.00+ on Friday down to $68.00, now.

Gold holds Fridays gains (rallied from $1805 to $1832 peak)  trades at $1827 now.)

Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed, Nikkei lead markets higher on leadership talk. Chip shortages continue to gain headlines (Mercedes “through 2022”, GM factories on “idle”, CBI in UK warn of problems for “at least 2 years”.) NZ to ease Covid lockdowns, cases in Australia to peak within two weeks (emphasis now on vaccinations; 75% of NSW/Victoria popn. has now had first vax.)

Week Ahead  RBA, (Tuesday) BOC (Wednesday) and top of the shop ECB (will Ms Lagarde talk taper dates?) – key US data is PPI (Friday) and JOLTS (Wednesday). Plus EU & JPY GDP (Tuesday), Chinese inflation (Thursday) and Canadian jobs (Friday).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 8 ticks, US futures also fractionally lower. US payroll number headline may have been weaker than expected, but was strong in the details& against that background markets still seem to waiting for ECB to announce a slight tapering in monthly asset purchase levels this week. Lagarde will play down the importance though & is likely to once again stress the forcefully dovish guidance on the rate outlook & highlight the fact that asset purchases at levels seen in the first quarter would still mean sizeable support.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and U.S. futures are also fractionally higher. In FX markets EUR and Sterling declined against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD and Cable at 1.1872 and 1.3851 respectively. AUD & NZD gave given up some of the least two weeks gains ahead of RBA tomorrow. USDJPY has lifted to 109.80 from Fridays close at 109.67.

Today – US & Canada closed for Labor Day  German Industrial Orders, EZ & UK Construction PMIs, EZ Sentix Index.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.30%)  Slioped from 0.69% gain on Friday into 0.7445 close, to 0.7480 now. Faster MA’s now flat, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line but falling  RSI 53.30 and flat. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th September 2021.

Market Update – September 9 – USD Hold Bid as equities slip again.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

USD (USDIndex 92.72) keeps the bid even as yields cool (92.82 high yesterday)
Yields down from highs earlier in the week, (10yr 1.33%, now from 1.37%).
Equities stalled again – USA500 -5 at 4514 (Dow -0.2% & Nasdaq -0.57%). USA500.F under 4500 at 4493. (FB & APPL lost over 1%, COIN over 3% & PYPL 2.74%, Visa +1.25%, & Mastercard +1.84%). Asian markets lower too. ASX 200 (-0.4%), Nikkei 225 (-0.5%),
USOil recovered further to $69.40 after inventories yesterday, now back to $69.20. EIA inventories expected  to show a drawdown of 5.9million barrels later.
Gold slipped again (lows yesterday were $1782). Back to 1788 now, having breached 21EMA on Tuesday. Next support 1769
Yesterday –  BOC – no surprises – JOLTS – a record 10.93mln jobs opening in July vs  8.7mln unemployed Americans.
Overnight – China news dominates, – PPI at 13 yr high (+9.5%) although CPI softer (0.85 vs 1.0%), Regulator calls in Gaming Stock owners, and Evergrande (huge real estate corporation) defaults of $300bn of debt). German trade surplus widened (17.9b vs 13.3bn) – imports slumped.
ECB Preview: If it was just the usual hawkish crowd arguing for a scaling back of asset purchase volumes, it may be easy to dismiss, but in the minutes to the last meeting there was already a hint of things to come when council members argued that strengthening the dovish guidance on rates would take the pressure off other policy instruments – i.e. QE. In a Reuters interview in August, chief economist Lane, hardly known for his particularly hawkish credentials, admitted that the ECB will have to “assess at the September meeting the appropriate calibration for the final quarter of the year, taking into account the movement in market interest rates and the inflation outlook”. Given that VP Guindos has repeatedly flagged the possibility of further upward revisions to the growth outlook, a taper announcement today seems pretty likely. However, as Lane stressed, “in the grand scheme of things, this is a local adjustment” and “purchases in the second and third quarters were significantly higher than in the first, but even in the first quarter, compared to historical norms, purchases were pretty high.” So a drop back in PEPP purchases closer to levels seen in Q1 and at the same time, a very dovish guidance on the rate outlook from Lagarde is on the cards, which would wrap the taper in a dovish package.

European Open –  The December 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, slightly outperforming Treasury futures. Eurozone bonds managed to find some buyers yesterday, but yields have been trending higher going into today’s ECB meeting, which is expected to see the ECB dropping the reference to “significantly higher” purchases than in Q1 to signal a slight taper from next month. Lagarde will wrap that in very dovish guidance on rates, however, and a commitment to step up purchases again if necessary, which should help to limit the impact of the announcement and bonds could benefit in the end. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively ahead of the ECB and U.S. futures are also in the red, as investors in Asia in particular fret about the impact of virus developments on the global recovery. FX markets are also showing signs of risk aversion, with Dollar, Yen and CHF the main winners. EURUSD down to 1.1820 from 1.1850 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3725, after the government tax hikes, but back to 1.3775 now. USDJPY rallied to 110.40 but has since dipped to test 110.05.

Today – ECB & Ms. Lagarde Press conference, US Weekly Claims, EIA Oil Inventories, BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Daly, Evans, Bowman & Williams.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (-0.42%)  From a breach 0f 0.73 on Tuesday and 0.7275 support yesterday, to test 0.7230, the pair is back down again today.   Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line and moving lower. RSI 33 moving lower. H1 ATR 0.00071, Daily ATR 0.00605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th September 2021.

Market Update – September 13 – Tech stocks fall, USD up.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

• USD (USDIndex 92.75) up as the rise in inflation and recovery in risk appetite weighed on bonds and as the policy outlook lifts US Treasury Yields, hence supporting USD. There have been a string of voices calling for Fed tapering to begin sooner rather than later, even if Covid-19 cases are surging. But as the ECB showed, one can wrap a taper in dovish guidance on rates and thus prevent a taper tantrum.

• Equities struggled again, with China’s tech sector once again hit hard by the country’s regulatory clampdown amid a report that officials want to break up Ant Group Co’s Alipay. Online platforms have also been told to protect the rights of workers.

• JPN225 down (-0.30%). But US equities up for the day, with USA500.F bottomed at the 4470-4477 area. USA100 declined -0.87%, along with the USA30.

• Toyota downgraded projections for this year’s vehicle production numbers and China issued warnings that the chip shortage could last a while which will all add to the arguments of those saying ultra-accommodative monetary policies are only adding to existing imbalances between demand and supply that are pushing up prices at the moment.

• Apple down – follows “unfavourable” court ruling related to its app store, just days before it unveils the new iPhone line up. Alphabet down, with Google Play revenue also in doubt.Tesla down to 735.11 low.
• Yields down again, with 10-year -1.4 bp at 1.33%.

• The CHF is lower to start the week, EUR and GBP have also dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar.

• USOil up to $70.17, supported by growing signs of supply tightness in the US as a result of Hurricane Ida. About 3/4 of the US Gulf’s offshore oil production has remained halted since late August.

• Yesterday – SNB vice-president Zurbruegg said over the weekend that negative interest rates remain necessary to keep a lid on the currency, which suggests a steady hand announcement for Switzerland. In the US, Democrats are set to float 26.5% Corporate Tax.

Today – A cautious start to a week that will bring key inflation data for the US and the UK ahead of next week’s central bank announcement.  The SNB decision is also coming into view.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCAD (-0.38%) dip from1.4990 to 1.4924. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal lines steady at 0, implying indecision, but RSI at 41. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.00839.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th September 2021.

Market update – September 15 – Stocks plunging again.

Market News

Treasury yields plunged & Stock markets struggled against the background of weaker data. Buy stops were triggered on the way south for yields and added to the richening in bonds.

Topix and JPN225 have lost -1.15% and -0.46% respectively. USA500 is posted a 0.6% decrease, USA100 down -0.45% while the USA30 was the weakest, slipping -0.84% as hefty declines were registered in energy, materials, industrials, and financials.

China data round disappoints. – Retail sales down, Growth slowdown, Industrial Production weaker and investment growth also missed expectations. – The data round for China highlighted the impact of virus developments and added to the US inflation miss that left investors scaling back tapering concerns as soon as next week’s policy meeting.

British inflation surged last month to its highest level since March 2012, i.e. 3.2% y/y.
Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China’s No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. – Evergrande – fell for the 3rd consecutive day, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014.
Amazon to hire 125,000 people in advance of the holiday shopping season.

Apple unveiled an array of new hardware offerings.

Chevron to triple its modest spending on green energy by 2028.

The JPY strengthened as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped back to 109.59.

The EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar – EURUSD just over the 1.18 mark and Cable at 1.3823.

USOil supported above $70.40, on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States.

Gold jumped initially to 1,808 but is currently back to the 1800 floor, which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates.

Today: There is a lot on today’s calendar, including Canadian Inflation, US August Industrial Production, Import and Export prices and September Empire State index.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 dipped to 34,501 from 35,000. Currently the asset sustains above 34560 however BB extends lower on the daily basis with RSI at 39 and slipping and MACD turning negative implying an increase of the negative bias in themedium term. Daily ATR 269.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th September 2021.

Market Update – September 20 – USD & Yields Bid, Stocks Sink – It’s FOMC Week.

Market News

USD (USDIndex 93.25) third day higher (20 day high) after strong close on Friday. CAD & CHF biggest fallers Friday – AUD Shorts at 18-month high.

Yields rallied too on Friday – higher again this morning (10yr closed at 1.37%), pushing 1.375% currently.

Equities tanked Friday, and FUTS are lower following a weak Asian session with Japan, China, Korea & Taiwan all closed  (Evergrande down 19% to 11 year low as default becomes real). Chinese regulators now looking a the wider real estate market.  (USA500 -40 (-0.91%) at 4433. USA500.F 4385. (Tech giants down around 2% – FB hardest hit -2.24%) on large volumes too. Robinhood +1.00% (ARK invested $14.7 million).

VIX +over 5% to 23.12.

USOil down $1.20 and third day lower) to $71.25 after rejecting $73.00 last week.

Gold finding support at $1750 remains pressured on rising Yields and strong dollar, next support  at $1730 and resistance at $1788.

Overnight   UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price increases and supply chain problems continue.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 24 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are also higher though. Bunds, which were under pressure on Friday amid reports suggesting internal inflation projections, saw yields moving higher, but risk aversion picked up again over the weekend as markets eye virus developments and China’s growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 are down -0.6% and -0.4% respectively, while U.S. futures are also in the red, with a nearly 1% decline in the Dow Jones leading the way. In FX markets both EUR and Sterling declined against a stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1713 and Cable at 1.3700. USDJPY cremains capped by 110.00 and trades at 109.88

Central banks will be in focus this week, first and foremost of course the Fed, but in Europe, the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank also set policy this week. That will likely see investors holding back at least until the Fed decision is out of the way. Today’s data calendar is also pretty quiet. UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price & supply chain problems continue.

Today – Canadian Elections, ECB’s Schnabel

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) continued last weeks decline and the rejection of 0.7400, earlier in the month. Trades at 0.7230, next major support 0.7225 and 0.7200. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line and declining.  RSI 27 and OS zone, Stochs OS zone from Friday. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment.

Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now.

Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%.  Nikkei & China down   VIX cools to 23.42.

USOil continues to recover broke $71.00  earlier – inventories to come later today.
Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788.

Overnight  – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market.  FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying.  RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th September 2021.

Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94)  post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues.

Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)

Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433.  Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings.  Asian mixed –  Nikkei +2%, China lower.
VIX tumbles again to 20.50.

USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter.

Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low)  has recovered to $1755 now.

Overnight  – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK   Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures.  Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed.  FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker  – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50.

Today – German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier.   Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising.  H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th September 2021.

Market Update – September 28 – Energies skyrocket.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

Yields rose (10yr closed at 1.51% – the highest level since June, with the 30-year testing 2.04%, while the 5-year hit 1.005% before rates retreated from those key areas). Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020).

Equities extended losses, but stabilised into this morning. Durable goods added to the bearish bias seen since FOMC’s hawkish pivot last Wednesday. USA500 -51 at 4431 (S1), USA100 -319 at 15095, but currently at 15160. USA30 advanced 0.2% as strength in materials, energy, and financials supported.

Asian equities trade mixed, –  property stocks rallied in Hong Kong after China’s central bank said it will work to safeguard the “healthy” development of the property markets – ASX corrected at -1.4%. VIX rebounded from 20DMA & closed at 20.27.

USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) – Brent at 2018 highs, over $80.

Energy was up over 3.5%, as oil prices approached three-year highs. Financials rose near 1.5% on higher rates, while technology was down near 1% for the same reason.

FX markets – GBP bid – helped by higher rates. – USD  & JPY weaker – USDJPY – 110.30, Cable 1.3700, EURUSD 1.1681.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 20 ticks, US futures have also sold off and the US 10-year rate has lifted above 1.5% as investors continue to bring forward rate hike expectations. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.2%, US futures are also mostly higher, as China’s central bank tried to calm nerves on the health of the property sector.

Gilts underperformed yesterday and are likely to continue to remain under pressure after BoE governor Bailey re-enforced the bank’s message on the possibility of hiking rates before bond buying has ended. Many are now expecting a rate hike to come in the first quarter of next year, and while Bailey also highlighted the problems the UK economy is facing this winter, he stressed that monetary policy won’t be able to fix those.

Lagarde continues to try and keep rate hike speculation at bay and will likely continue along those lines when she opens the ECB’s annual conference on central banking today.

Today – Data releases are thin on the ground again, but include ECB Lagarde and Chairman Powell speeches and US Consumer Confidence.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.48%) Broke 81.00 barrier ahead of elections. Next resistance 81.40 & 81.80. Faster MAs flattened, suggesting consolidation, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, but RSI turned below 70 and dropping.  H1 ATR 0.1300, Daily ATR 0.309.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th September 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed.  – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.

Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.

China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped.  UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.

Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).

Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.

USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.

“A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),”  as Westpac analysts wrote.

FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday – USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.

Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.

Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd October 2021.

Market Update – October 4 – USD Holds, Inflation & Evergrande worries persist.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

USD (USDIndex 94.00) holds at highs but down from Thursday 94.50 high. Strong US data on Friday (ISM Manu PMI 61.1, PCE  4.3% & UoM 72.8. Its NFP Jobs and Pandora Papers week.

Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.465%) now at 1.47% in Asian trades (huge spike to 1.567% last week cooled but Yields “on notice”) China closed until Thursday, HK Property group (Hopson) has offered $5bn for 50% of Evergrande Real Estate. Contagion still a worry.

Equities rallied on Friday, (Merck +8.37%) anti-viral drug Covid drug) USA500 +49.0 (+1.5%) at 4357 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4330.  Asian equities mixed.  VIX closed at 21.20 Friday – trades at 22.15 now.

USOil holds at $75.20 ahead of today’s OPEC+ which is expected to agree “gradual” production increases, amid supply bottlenecks and inventory drawdowns.

Gold holds at $1760 following last weeks collapse to $1720 as yields rocketed. 20-day MA $1765.   
FX markets USD bid – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3550, & USDJPY 111.00.

Week Ahead  – RBA Rate Decision – (less Dovish ? but with Covid cases still climbing) Jobs Week – RBNZ Rate Decision (delayed rate hike coming?), Jobs week NFP – (460k vs 235k), ADP 430k vs 374k & Claims 350K vs 362k. Plus more PMI data.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 8 ticks at 170.30,  Asian stock markets traded mixed, but DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.4%, in catch up trade, after news from Merck lifted Wall Street on Friday. The boost, which also seemed to underpin the outperformance of the ASX in Asia seems to be waning though as China angst and mutterings of stagflation fears weigh on sentiment.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, US Factory Orders, ECB’s de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic & Bullard, OPEC+ and Eurogroup meetings.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.24%) Continued Friday’s rally from 87.20 low to test resistance at 88.00 again. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 55.50 and neutral.  H1 ATR 0.157, Daily ATR 0.882.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.