Date : 28th April 2021.

Market Update – April 28 – Low risk appetite.

Market News Today – The FOMC and earnings remain the focal points. India continues to threaten, and there are some fears over developing inflationary pressures. No changes or surprises are expected from the Fed. Meanwhile, strong earnings have largely been priced in, so bulls are unwilling to chase stocks higher currently, especially with rates on the rise again. Wall Street was mixed but mostly higher, while the USA100 was modestly lower, though all are at or near all-time highs. Treasury yields advanced a further 2 bp to 1.64%. However, weaker than expected inflation data out of Australia helped to put a floor under local bonds and Australia’s 10-year rate dropped back -0.7 bp to 1.72%. Global Stock markets mostly managed to move higher. The JPN225 lifted 0.5%, and the ASX 0.4%, helped by expectations that the low inflation environment will keep the RBA sidelined for a long time to come.

In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2074 and Cable at 1.3884.  USDJPY lifted to 108.88, while the AUD was under pressure. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $63.18 per barrel. Gold prices fell to a 1-week low at $1,766, weighed down by firmer US Treasury yields with investors awaiting policy cues from the Federal Reserve’s statement, while Palladium retreats from the all-time high hit on Tuesday.

FOMC preview: This week’s FOMC is universally expected to maintain a steady policy stance. Policymakers will release their decision at 14:00 ET, and Chair Powell will follow up at 14:30 ET with his press conference. Remember too that this meeting does not include new economic projections. Officials have assured to a Spokesperson that the ZIRP posture will be maintained for “some time” into the future, and the dots suggest that this will be  at least 2 years. The brightening economic outlook and the improvement in the job situation has not been enough to move the needle on policy, and Chair Powell has said there is a long way to go until the labor market returns to its pre-pandemic levels. The Fed should reiterate that the “path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.” It has also stressed it will maintain its accommodative stance until “substantial further progress” has been made on its dual goals, while emphasizing the stance is outcome based and that it will not act pre-emptively based on forecasts. The Fed won’t provide any clarity on what is “some time” or “substantial further progress.” There has been market speculation that the strength in the economy and the trillions of fiscal stimulus on board will see the Fed sound less hawkish, but that time is not now, especially with the surge in virus infections abroad. Officials will also be concerned over the negative effects of a taper tantrum.

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in the US session include the US Advance Goods, the OPEC Meeting and Canadian Retail Sales. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Apple, Facebook, QUALCOMM, Shopify, Boeing, Sony etc.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.27%)  – CADCHF turned above 20-DMA after more than 3 weeks at 0.7387. The overall outlook remains choppy. In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 63 with MACD extending northwards but keeps close to 0. ATR (H1) at 0.00062 & ATR (D) at 0.00540.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th April 2021.

Market Update – Month End – USD weak, Stocks & Commodities Bid.

Market Market News Today – S&P500 closed at ATH again. USD slipped again (EUR at 2-mth high and up 3%+ for April, USDCAD at 3  year lows). AMZN Earnings big beat – +44% increase in sales ($108.5bn); record profits (tripled) AWS +32%, Ad sales a massive +77%; Shares +2.4% after-hours. TWTR beats, rev +28% ($1.04Bn). Yields rallied to 1.69% 2-week high (now 1.641%). Yesterday – US GDP (6.4%), Claims (553K) and Pending Home sales (1.9%) all missed expectations. Overnight Japanese data better than expected, Chinese data mixed (both close until Wednesday).

JPY under 109.00 at 108.75 (PP), Cable at 1.3945 (PP) and AUD rejected 0.7800 yesterday trades at 0.7775 (PP)

USOIL at 6- week high peaked at $65.00, Gold – $1770 following volatile session (highs 1790, lows 1756) BTC under 53,000 on close – back to 54,300 (PP) now.

European Open – Risk aversion picked up again overnight as investors were spooked by China’s anti-trust crackdown, although the DAX future is up 0.2%, after an unexpected expansion in French GDP at the start of the session and yesterday’s underperformance. The FTSE 100 future is down -0.2% and U.S. futures are also in the red, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ underperforming and down -0.4%.

Today – German GDP (Flash), EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP (Prelim), US PCE & Chicago PMI, Fed’s Kaplan. Earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, Barclays, BBVA, BNP, Eni.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.20%) rejected 1.5600 again yesterday moved under 50- and 20-hr MA and Daily PP. Next support 200-hr MA & S1 at 1.5550. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 47  & cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but remain above 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th May 2021.

Market update – Shares edging higher.

Market News Today – Treasuries kicked off May with modest gains, correcting from the losses to end April. Caution ruled as Covid problems remain worries, especially with the spike in India. Wall Street was led by the USA30‘s 0.7% rally, with the USA500 up 0.27%, though the USA100 slipped -0.48% lower, as tech stocks were under pressure. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting that the economic recovery remains patchy helped to boost Treasuries yesterday, but bonds traded mixed overnight. Australia markets outperformed, but yields have come back from lows after the RBA left policy settings unchanged for now but upgraded its economic outlook. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and up 0.3% respectively, the latter in catch up mode as UK markets return from the extended bank holiday weekend. Trading conditions remained quiet, with China and Japan still on holiday.

In FX markets, the US Dollar strengthened across the board and USDJPY lifted to 109.33. Both EUR and GBP dropped against a largely stronger USD and also  speculations on BoE. Analysts reckon the bank might announce a slowdown in its bond buying programme as vaccinations have bolstered Britain’s economy. Ethereum is at 160% above the 200-day MA, breaking $3,500. USOIL meanwhile spiked to $64.35 per barrel, as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travellers. The weaker-than-expected US data stoked concerns over recovery and limited losses for the safe-haven metal. Gold is down at $1,785, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at 1797.

Today – Data releases in Europe today focus on the final UK manufacturing PMI for April as well as consumer credit growth ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT – USDRUB turned  0.44% lower, breaking the 20-period SMA. The MAs aligned lower while  RSI is at 43 and pointing lower and MACD is below signal line, suggesting decreasing positive bias.  ATR (H1) at 0.24544 & ATR (D) at 0.90351.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th May 2021.

Market Update – May 6 – GBP in focus ahead of BoE & Elections.

Market News Today – USD consolidates, (USDIndex holds PP at 91.25), Equities closed mixed (new ATH for USA30, USA100 down 0.37% as rotation away from tech continues). The AUD fell over 0.5% as China said it will “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. 10-yr Yields held at 1.59%. Commodities tear continues – Copper nudging 10- yr highs. German Factory orders much better than expected. Japan, China and South Korea back to work. Biden agrees to IP waiver for Covid vaccines.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone (again), JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.30, Cable rotates around 1.3900 ahead of BOE & Elections. AUD held support at 0.7700, back to 0.7745 now and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2250 zone.

USOIL peaked at $66.65 yesterday tested $65.00 post inventories – back to $65.70 now Gold – $1794 following a test of 200hr support at $1775). Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $58,000 yesterday at $57,000 now.  Dogecoin –

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/the-dogecoin-joke-is-turning-serious-in-latest-crypto-binge?sref=uHY27eog

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, U.S. futures are little changed, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 1.58%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.01% and 0.13% respectively, U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia, where rising trade tensions between China and Australia weighed on local markets. Investors will be starting to look ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report, but today’s local calendar is also quite busy, with BoE and Norges Bank announcing policy, a key local election in the U.K. that could have bearing on Scotland’s relation with Westminister, and a number of data points.

Today – BoE & (Norges & CBRT) rate decisions, UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Mester. Earnings from Moderna, Rengeneron, ViacomCBS, Peloton, AB Inbev, Continental, ArcelorMittal, ING, Volkswagen, SocGen, UniCredit. Up to 48 million people to vote in UK local elections.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.18%) rallied from lows below 131.00  yesterday to test R1 at 131.35 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55 & moving higher, MACD histogram testing 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs risingto test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0886, Daily ATR 0.6745.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th May 2021.

May 10 – GBP skyrockets, USD down, Crypto and Metals in the spotlight.

Market News Today – The overall tone in stocks remained positive through the Asian part of the session, after Wall Street shrugged off the disappointment of the US jobs report on Friday and took solace in the fact that the data will back the Fed’s dovish tone. Many Asian indices moved higher, while bonds struggled. JPN225 gained  0.4% today, the ASX more than 1% after strong business confidence data. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed and corrected -0.5% and -0.8% respectively against the background of anti-trust efforts and lingering US-China tensions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside gains in US futures.

In FX markets, the US Dollar sank to a 2-month low at 90.18. The GBP rallied to a 10-week high after local elections provided a boost to PM Johnson and seemed to fend off demands for another independence referendum in Scotland. Cable is trading at 1.4062 and EURGBP at 08640. EURUSD meanwhile dropped slightly to 1.2150. USDJPY lifted to 108.98 as the Yen weakened across the board. CAD and AUD were supported. USOIL is traded at $65.36 per barrel, after a key US pipeline was forced shut by a cyber attack (Colonial Pipeline). Copper skyrocketed to 4.869.

Ethereum extended this month’s record run, surging more than 5% to an unprecedented $4,148.88. The second-biggest digital token has rallied 41% so far in May. Bitcoin rallied but remains below 60K after Elon Musk called dogecoin a “hustle” during his guest-host spot on the “Saturday Night Live” comedy sketch TV show.

Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the $126 bln May refunding is on tap, and includes $58 bln in 3-year notes Tuesday, $41 bln in 10-year notes Wednesday, and $27 bln in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields plunged on Friday following the jobs miss, but rebounded into the close as the market looked ahead to the upcoming supply. The wi 3-year traded 2 bps richer at 0.315% late Friday, with the wi 10-year fractionally cheaper at 1.590% and the wi 30-year 3.5 bps cheaper at 2.280%. Rates here would be the richest in two months for the 3- and 30-year maturities, and since March for the 10-year. Many of the auctions this year have shown sputtering demand, leading some to worry that demand for Treasuries is diminishing. This week’s auctions will be an interesting test, especially given richer rates alongside uncertainties over inflation, and now the job market.

Today – Virus developments remain encouraging and with central banks still providing support, it seems the recovery remains on track. Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, but includes UK house price data.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.92%) rallied from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI crossed 70 and still points upwards, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher extending away from 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 0.990.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th May 2021.

Market Update – May 12 – Inflation day.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Fears over rising inflation weighed on both stocks and bonds, with equities bearing the brunt of the pressure. The broader indexes were the underperformers with the USA30 dropping -1.9% and the USA100 was down sharply too, off nearly -2%. Today, GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. The rout in tech stocks in particular continued to see wider markets selling off overnight, and European bourses are likely to continue to struggle ahead of key US inflation data later today. Treasuries were heavy too, led by the long end amid the inflation threat. Yields have spiked in Australia and New Zealand, after some warnings that Australia could lose its AAA rating.

Inflation fears have made a comeback although the sell off in equities seems to be abating somewhat, likely also thanks to ongoing verbal support from central banks, which continue to see the current spike in inflation as transitory. There was a plethora of Fedspeak and all concurred it was not the time to discuss tapering, while suggesting the disappointing jobs report was likely due to other issues aside from unemployment benefits.

In FX markets, the USD strengthened and USDJPY lifted to 108.89. AUD and NZD are broadly lower. Cable eased at high levels currently at 1.4130, EURUSD sustains support at 1.2115 for a 3rd day. USOIL stabilised at the $65 area.

Today – Today’s US inflation reading aside, the local calendar confirmed German HICP inflation at 2.1% largely thanks to base effects from energy prices. UK GDP for Q1 came in a tad better than feared, with the quarterly rate showing a contraction of -1.5% q/q, largely due to lockdown measures.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.37%) broke 20- and 50-day SMA, spiking to 1.5562 high so far. Faster MAs stabilised and are flattened currently, as RSI after the 70 high is pulling back despite the bullish bias in the MACD histogram. Hence the intraday indicators suggest the end of the rally for the time being. H1 ATR 0.00185, Daily ATR 0.00911.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th May 2021.

Market Update – May 17 – USD lifts, Gold rallies, BTC Sinks.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD remains weak (USDIndex down to 90.27). Equities all closed higher (US100 biggest gainer up 2.32%), 457 of USA500 have reported earnings and 87% have beat expectations. Futs. softer today. Commodities tear continues, GOLD breaks $1850.  10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.62% from 1.70% last week. BTC bombed 12% before recovering, Musk suggested Tesla selling some or all of $1.5b investment (later denied).  Asian markets mixed on mixed Chinese data, (Retail Sales missed significantly, Ind. Output in line, Unemployment improved.)

This week – Economic data slim, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – down a tad to 1.2135, JPY holds over 109.00 down to 109.20, Cable holds  over  1.4100 AUD holds  0.7760 and CAD holds 1.2100

USOIL back over  $65.00 from lows at $63.00 on Thursday,  Gold – rallied to 3 mth high $1855 Commodities remain robust. BTC down to test under $42,000, back to $44,000 now. 

European Open – Futures are also mixed, with US indices in the red, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both up 0.1%. The UK is taking another step towards a full re-opening of the economy today, but amid warnings of caution against the background of new virus variants. In the Eurozone, restrictions vary considerably across countries, with some already at the level of openness that the UK is now going back to. In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar earlier, only to improve as the session opened. Data releases today remain thin on the ground, with only the final reading for Italian HICP numbers of note.

Today – US NY Fed Manufacturing, BoE’s Haldane, Vlieghe, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Earnings from RyanAir & Advanced Auto Parts.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.50%) rallied from 5-day lows below 1.9420 on close to test 1.9550 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 61 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line. Stochs rising and OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0155.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th May 2021.

Market Update May 20 – USD gets reprieve, BTC Bounces.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD gets a reprieve from surprise FOMC minutes. Minutes showed “taper talk” was discussed much more than any participant held implied since the meeting. USDIndex back over 90.00. Equities closed down -0.29%, USA500 4115, despite robust earnings from Lowes & Target, CISCO disappointed, after hours. Asian markets follow lower.  Overnight – AUD unemployment mixed, JPY machine Orders better, trade flat.

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat),  Target (beat), Lowes (beat) Cisco (miss). Still to come today – Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren.

EUR – down from 3-mth highs at 1.2240 under 1.2200 to 1.2185, JPY still struggles at  109.00, Cable back under 1.4200 and 14100 now. AUD back to 0.7750, CAD up from 6-year lows to 1.2100.

USOIL edges back up after yesterdays sell-off from under $62.50 to $63.50, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at  $1875, again trades at $1874. Commodities cooled but remain robust. BTC sank under $30,000, (& lost -54% from peak last month) – back to $40k now. All from Musk &  “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters. 

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which have moved slightly higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate is down -0.2 bp at 1.67%. The reading is up from overnight lows though, as stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian part of the session and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. U.S. futures have moved sideways after a weaker close on Wall Street and against the background of the Fed minutes, which suggested that some policy markets have at least started to think about tapering “some point”. For now though the official line at central banks is that the uptick in inflation is transitory and ECB’s Schnabel, who predicted a German CPI rate of over 3% later in the year, said that inflation is likely to recede again in 2022.

Today –  US Initial Job Claims,  Philadelphia Fed Business Index, SARB rate decision, ECB’s Lane, Lagarde, BoE’s Cunliffe, Fed’s Kaplan, Earnings from Applied Materials & Ralph Lauren.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from under 0.6961, yesterday to over 0.7005 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher,  RSI 60 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line earlier. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0051.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th May 2021.

Market Update – May 25 – Greenback drifts, Commodities Jump.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Wall Street was higher overnight as diminished worries over inflation and declining Treasury yields offered support. Big tech took the lead, boosting the USA100 over 1.5% higher, with the USA500 up over 1% and the USA30 0.7% firmer.

While it may be early to pull down the inflation red flags, the 10-year breakeven fell the most last week since September, indicating less concern over prices. Investors will look toward Friday’s release of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s favourite indicator.

Asian bond markets still benefited from soothing words on inflation from the Fed yesterday and yields dropped in Australia and New Zealand, while stock markets mostly moved higher, despite a mixed news flow that included further reports that Japan will extend the state of emergency on Covid developments and new local restrictions in Australia. The US State Department warning not to travel to Japan due to Covid may have some bearish repercussions on the markets in early trading. FTSE Russell will add China’s Xiaomi Corp to its global indexes next month.

Fed’s Bostic said the economy has been more resilient than expected.(voter)
Fed’s Bullard said he does not want to discuss adjusting policyduring the pandemic. (non-voter)
Fed Governor Brainard confined her prepared remarks on digital currencies. (voter)
UK: BoE members, including Governor Bailey, continued to argue that inflationary pressures are transitory in nature.
European News – In Europe, Germany had the second look at Q1 GDP, presenting that the Covid-19 hit on the German economy was bigger than expected in the first quarter. German Q1 GDP was revised slightly lower – to show contractions of -1.8% q/q, and -3.1% y/y (wda), versus -1.7% and -3.0% reported with the first release. Lockdown measures were the main reason for the sharp decline in activity, with restrictions severer than in France, Italy or Spain, at least initially.

In FX markets, there were reports of Yuan intervention from China. Presently the Yen is mostly weaker and USDJPY little changed at 108.60.  EURUSD lifted to 1.2252 and Cable skyrocketed to 1.4200.  USOIL is trading at USD 66.05 per barrel as Iran suggested that there are still open questions in negotiations over a deal to end US sanctions on its crude. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose the most in about a week. Bitcoin reversed to 38.8K and GOLD jumped to 1886 on EU open from 1872.

Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index

Today – The European data calendar today has Q1 trade data, along with the May Ifo business climate report. The UK has April public sector borrowing figures. The US calendar includes new home sales, home price data, and consumer confidence.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th May 2021.

EURUSD: Improving outlook with downside risks.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Central bankers continue to do their best to keep tapering concerns at bay, but while ECB’s de Cos added to the dovish voices out of the Eurozone this week, Bundesbank President Weidmann and centrist Executive Board member Schnabel are due to speak this afternoon and likely to present a more balanced view. A compromise for the June meeting could be a scaled back monthly purchase target within an unchanged PEPP framework and overall QE target, which would effectively mirror the BoE’s action. Against that background the air for Eurozone bonds as well as stocks may be getting thinner at these levels as markets look to US data releases. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.

EURUSD has drifted off highs as markets anticipate a batch of US economic data releases today and tomorrow, including key price data. The Euro has lately found an underpinning from the improving outlook in the Eurozone economy, with the recent wave of Covid infections having been quelled and the EU having finally got its act together with its vaccination program. As for the US inflation situation, the prevailing dominant view is that price pressures will abate in Q3, as year-on-year base effects narrow and supply bottlenecks are ironed out, which — for now at least — is keeping shorter-dated Treasury yields anchored at low levels, with the Fed expected to hold out on ZIRP and QE.

The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows that market positioning is implying a probability for a 25 bp Fed hike by year-end of just 9%, having ebbed back from the 11% odds that were being implied last week.

EURUSD futures are implying a first 25 bp hike in 2023, about a year ahead of what the Fed has been signalling. EURUSD is holding higher above the 20-day EMA. However, the market has been trading in a horizontal trajectory the past 8 days within the upper boundary of the 1.2165 Resistance and the lower immediate boundary of the 1.2157 Support. The RSI is sloping sideways above the 50 level, while the stochastic is heading downwards after the negative cross within the %K and %D lines. MACD lines held well above zero, presenting along with RSI an overall bullish outlook but a neutral outlook in the near-term.

However the key Support level for the asset is 1.2135, which is the confluence of the 20-Day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level. If the price breaks this bottom, it could meet the 50-day SMA and the 1.2000-1.2050 area. Bullish movements could open the way for the pair to test the year’s peak and even the multi-year highs at 1.2460-1.2500, if the bulls manage to successfully surpass 1.2250 (FE 61.8%).

In conclusion, EURUSD is neutral in the near term but is looking neutral to bearish in the short-term outlook.

Nevertheless, as stated in our latest post, EURUSD’s prevailing upside bias seems likely to sustain so long as markets continue to buy-in to the Fed’s narrative, but would see downside risk should Fed tapering start to look more inevitable. This would be when the US versus Eurozone growth differential is matched by a Fed versus ECB tightening expectations differential, which would be the circumstance for the directional bias of EURUSD to shift to the downside.

It is notable that the doves on the governing council have lately been quiet about the ascent of the Euro, despite the tightening effect via real interest rates. In fact ECB’s Panetta said just yesterday that the recent rise in the Euro could, if sustained, “weaken inflationary pressures.” Given the outsized fiscal stimulus and higher growth trajectory in the US, the bigger-picture risk for EURUSD is to the downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st May 2021.

Market Update – May 31 – USD Holds gains.

Market News Today – UK , US closed today. USD holds gains following Fridays PCE and PMI data. USDIndex closed Friday @90.00 down from 90.41 high and –1.34% for the month. US stocks closed flat on Friday (For April USA30 +1.94% & USA100 -1.53%) Global stocks start muted to the new week. Most Asian equities retreated after signs China’s econ recovery may be leveling out (PMI dipped) and JPY data was mixed, global inflation risks a concern. Bonds steady w/US 10y yields at 1.59%. Gold reclaims $1,904 and USOil trades at $66.65.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI & a rate decision from the RBA and monthly PMI data – The data could  reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Virus developments remain in focus as recovery broaden but against the background of rising cost pressures. On the data front, the focus will be on preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which are likely to show a further acceleration in headline rates. The German number is already above the ECB’s definition for price stability and likely to rise further, although for now base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, which allows the ECB to see through what it still expects to be a temporary overshoot.

Today –  German regional & national CPIs.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.26%) up from Friday’s low at 0.7676 to move over 0.7000 into close and now trade at 0.7725. MAs remain aligned higher,  RSI 55.25 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line from below. Stochs. rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.

Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured.  USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could  reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580.  MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.