Forecast for GBP/USD on March 8, 2019

Data on the growth of the Australian economy was disappointing. What is alarming is not just the fact that the country's GDP slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year - it is a persistent trend towards a decrease in the key indicator. Thus, if in the first quarter of 2018, Australia's GDP was at the level of 1.1% (quarterly), in the second quarter it decreased to 0.9%, in the third – to 0.3%, and finally in the fourth – to 0.2%. The same dynamics is observed in annual terms of the indicator: I quarter – 3.2%, II – 3.1%, III – 2.7% and IV – 2.3%. Today's release was not only worse than forecasts, but it also marked a certain anti-record. For example, on a quarterly basis, the indicator showed the weakest growth dynamics since the third quarter of 2016.

On a smaller scale, H4, price convergence with the Marlin oscillator is being formed, which can be realized in a correction from the pound's fall from February 28, visually from the balance line to the daily. We do not expect a high correction, since the signal level of 1.3108 can assume the role of a split, that is, the level at which the price will be wound in a consolidation process.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 12, 2019

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final Private Payrolls q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1313.
Strong Resistance:1.1307.
Original Resistance: 1.1296.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1285.
Target Inner Area: 1.1259.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1233.
Original Support: 1.1222.
Strong Support: 1.1211.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1205.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 14, 2019

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as French Final CPI m/m and German Final CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1383.
Strong Resistance: 1.1376.
Original Resistance: 1.1365.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1354.
Target Inner Area: 1.1330.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1300.
Original Support: 1.1289.
Strong Support: 1.1278.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1271.

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USD/CHF approaching support, potential bounce!

USD/CHF is approaching our first support at 1.0018 (horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur to our major resistance at 1.0054 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (34,5,3) is also nearing support where we might see a corresponding rise in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment, so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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EUR/USD. The dollar is getting cheaper ahead of the March Fed meeting

The dollar index continues to dive down. After reaching the local high of 97.26 on March 7 (a three-month high), the indicator started to actively give up its positions - the index is currently already at the level of 95.86. The nearly recoilless movement of the indicator indicates market alertness: the closer the date of the March Federal Reserve meeting, the more that traders actively get rid of the greenback. The nervousness of investors is understandable: after all, the so-called "Fed points" (dot plots) will be published on Wednesday, which will mark the likely actions of the regulator this year. For the first time in a long time, one of the hypothetical scenarios suggests a reduction in the rate. This fact does not make it possible for dollar bulls to develop an offensive in the foreign exchange market: in almost all pairs, the US currency has lost its advantage. The euro-dollar pair is no exception.

However, "not a single Federal Reserve" lives the market today. Today, the growth of the EUR/USD pair is also spurred by good macroeconomic data from Europe, as well as a news background regarding the future prospects of Brexit. Thus, the ZEW Institute's sentiment index for the business environment in Germany showed the strongest increase in March over the last year. And although the indicator remained in the negative area, traders drew attention to the dynamics of its growth. In addition, the increase in the index as a whole in the eurozone also surpassed expectations, having updated its 10-month high. Against the background of a half-empty economic calendar, these releases were enough for EUR/USD bulls to test the middle of the 13th figure, especially against a weakened dollar.

The Brexit theme also makes it possible for the pair to be bullish. Although at the moment, no one can predict how the confrontation in the May-Parliament-Brussels triangle will end, one thing can be said with certainty: in the foreseeable future, there will be no "hard" Brexit. All other scenarios somehow "fit" the currency market, the only difference is how long the period of uncertainty lasts.

Despite the importance of the fundamental factors mentioned above, the Fed meeting is still the main engine of growth for the EUR/USD, or rather, expectations of its outcome. According to the expectations of most experts, the Fed will change its monetary policy forecast, reducing the number of expected rate increases from two to one. Also, the regulator may announce the suspension of the balance sheet reduction. In general, the text of the accompanying statement, as well as the rhetoric of Jerome Powell (who will hold a press conference), will be cautious in nature, implementing the "policy of patience".

If this scenario is implemented tomorrow, which is the basis for the market, the reaction of the dollar is unlikely to be large-scale. But any deviation from it will cause a fairly strong volatility. First of all, you should pay attention to the assessment of the latest US macroeconomic data. Nonfarm and CPI showed quite contradictory dynamics, therefore unpleasant surprises are possible for dollar bulls. Let me remind you that following a record increase in the number of people employed in January (by 311 thousand), this figure then fell to 20 thousand in February.

Experts are still arguing over what caused such a sharp decline - seasonal factors, massive teacher strikes or systemic problems. By the way, the initial optimism about reducing the unemployment rate from 4% to 3.8% came to nothing, since this dynamic is explained by the return of government employees after a prolonged shutdown.

As for inflation, the situation is even worse. The increase in consumer price index in January was 1.8% compared to the same period last year, while the base PCE excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.9%. Thus, inflation slowed down compared with the period of last year, and this fact goes against the forecasts of the US central bank, whose members hoped to keep the key indicator at a two percent level. On the other hand, good data on wage growth in the United States may slightly smooth out the negative reaction - although the overall inflationary trend leaves much to be desired.

Thus, for the dollar, there are two potentially dangerous options for the event's development: if the Fed completely eliminates the likelihood of a rate hike this year, and if the Fed head allows the rate to drop in the foreseeable future. All other options will either have a neutral impact on the greenback, or strengthen its position throughout the market.

In a technical point of view, the pair finally consolidated above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart (that is, above the mark of 1.1320) - EUR/USD bulls attacked this target for a week and a half. Now the pair has the potential to increase towards the next resistance level - the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to the price of 1.1390. The Golden Cross formed by the Ichimoku indicator also confirms the priority of an upward movement. However, the saturated events of the environment can turn the price by 180 degrees - especially if the Fed has shown unexpected optimism about tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year. If the regulator reduces the upper limit of the neutral range to 2.75% or even to the current 2.50%, the dollar will fall under the next wave of being sold.

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Brexit: The UK proposed a date of June 30, which did not suit the EU. The deadline is May 22, with a number of conditions

The British pound fell sharply against the US dollar during the first half of the day after news came out that the EU leaders might reject the British Prime Minister Theresa May's request to postpone Brexit. Yesterday, the government sent a request to the EU to postpone the UK release date from March 29 to June 30. However, today there are reports in the media that the release date cannot be postponed to a date later than May 22.

Moreover, one of the EU's conditions is the Parliament's ratification of May's proposed agreement on Brexit, which has already been rejected twice by the House of Commons.

This news put serious pressure on the pound, since this option significantly increases the likelihood that the UK will withdraw from the EU on March 29 without an agreement.

Let me remind you that the summit in Brussels will begin today, where the leaders of the European Union will decide on the granting of the delay and its duration for two days.

As for the fundamental data that came out today on the UK economy, it did not have the desired effect and did not help the pound.

According to the report, UK retail sales increased in February, despite the events related to Brexit.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2019, UK retail sales rose by 0.4% compared with January, after rising by 0.9% in January. Economists had expected retail sales to decline by 0.4% in February. Good retail sales are sure to support GDP growth after a weak completion in 2018.

Today, a report was also released in which it was stated that the net borrowings of the PSNB state sector amounted to £0.2 billion in February. The net borrowings of the UK public sector over the past 11 months at the end of March 2019 amounted to 23.1 billion pounds.

The Bank of England's decision to leave the key interest rate at 0.75% slightly supported the British pound. The decision was made with a vote ratio of 9-0.

The regulator said that it expects a smooth tightening of monetary policy in the event of an orderly exit of Great Britain from the EU, and that the outlook for the economy depends on it.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, large levels of support are now visible in the areas of 1.3080 and 1.3030. In case of an upward correction on Brexit news, growth can be restrained by the resistances of 1.3225 and 1.3320.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for March 26, 2019

Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has stalled below the 1.1340 levels after finding support at the 1.1273 levels last week. Please note that the prices should remain above the 1.1273 levels for bulls to remain in control. In a broader sense, the 1.1175 levels should be held if EUR/USD needs to rally towards the 1.16/1.17 levels going forward. If we consider the drop after breaking resistance at the 1.1448 levels, it is still in the wave 3, which is corrective. Also note that the Fibonacci 0.786 support comes in at the 1.1240 levels and a bullish bounce is possible. But the price breaking further below the 1.1240 levels would increase the probability of giving up support at the 1.1175 levels. From the trading point of view, it is safe to open long deals, but below the 1.1273 levels. The price action unfolding in the next 1-2 trading sessions would confirm whether EUR/USD is going to produce an extended rally towards the 1.1800 levels or not.

Trading plan:
Aggressive traders, remain long with a stop loss order below 1.1273, the target is open.
Conservative traders, remain flat for now.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 28, 2019

EUR/USD This morning, the euro did not reach the target level of 1.2434, but it could still happen during the day, which does not break the convergence with the marlin oscillator on the four-hour scale. But regardless of this level's development, the price prepared the technical conditions for a small correction, in the range of 1.1275-1.1310. The upper limit of the range is due to the MACD line resistance on the four-hour chart.

Consolidating prices below 1.1234 opens a new target - 1.1155 (Fibonacci reaction level 110.0%

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EUR/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

EURCAD is approaching our first resistance at 1.5033 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur to our major resistance at support at 1.4925 (horizontal swing low support). RSI (34) is also approaching resistance and ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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NZD/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

NZDUSD is approaching our first support at 0.6744 (long term ascending support line, horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level to our major resistance at 0.6866 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ). Stochastic is also approaching support. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

AUDUSD is approaching our first resistance at 0.7145 (horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.7111 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ). Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

GBPUSD is approaching our resistance at 1.3118 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 1.3039 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing low support). Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex